Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of October 10th! This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: Major Indices End of Week: Bird's Eye view of the Major Markets on Friday: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD: What to Watch in the Week Ahead: Monday Bond market closed for Columbus Day 10 p.m.: Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks on the economy and monetary policy Tuesday Earnings: Alcoa, Fastenal 6 a.m.: NFIB survey 11 a.m.: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari Wednesday Earnings: CSX 8 a.m.: New York Fed President Bill Dudley speaks with the Business Council of New York State 9:40 a.m.: Kansas City Fed President Esther George speaks at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Annual Payments Symposium 10 a.m.: JOLTS 2 p.m.: Fed minutes Thursday Earnings: Taiwan Semiconductor, Unilever, First Republic Bank, Sky, Marriott Vacations, Winnebago 8:30 a.m.: Jobless claims 8:30 a.m.: Import prices 12:15 p.m.: Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speaks on the economic outlook 2 p.m.: Federal budget 9 p.m.: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speaks at a town hall on "Ending too big to fail," the role of the Federal Reserve and other topics Friday Earnings: Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, PNC Financial Services, Infosys, Commerce Bancshares 8:30 a.m.: Retail sales 8:30 a.m.: PPI 10 a.m.: Consumer sentiment 10 a.m.: Business inventories 1:30 p.m.: Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaks on "Macroeconomic research after the crisis" 9 p.m.: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speaks at a town hall on "Ending too big to fail," the role of the Federal Reserve and other topics
Stocks & Bonds 'Pounded' After Biggest Risk-Parity Plunge In Over 6 Months Well that was a week... Post-Payrolls, Crude was the biggest loser as stocks, bonds, and gold ended unch... Small Caps and Trannies were worst on the day... Stocks had their first down week in a month... Futures show the real craziness in this week's market... Crazy day in VIX complex and stocks... Notice the standard BTFD ramp on a payrolls day lifted stocks to VWAP... Stocks & Bonds tumbled this week as risk-parity funds suffered their biggest loss in over 6 months And bond-stock correlation remains near record highs... Treasury yields rose all week with some mixed performance today post-payrolls... (bonds closed Monday remember) UK 10Y Gilt yields spiked back above 1.00% for the first time since June 27th (immediate reaction post-Brexit) FX markets turmoiled this week with the USD ending up over 1% (despite giving some back post-payrolls)... Obviously the week belonged to Cable... On the week, the pound fell more than it did overall during Brexit week... PMs pummelled this week as Crude rallied until today...Silver slammed right on time every day this week... For 11 of the 12 days since The September FOMC meeting, Silver has been clubbed from the US Open to European Close... Charts: Bloomberg Bonus Chart: Stocks are coiling as bonds and bullion slide...
Regardless of election outcome, S&P 500 advances 72.2% of the time For all the heated discussion, debate, worrying, slicing and dicing of numbers, the actual presidential election outcome appears to have little bearing on S&P 500 performance in November and December. Since 1944 election-year Novembers have been up 55.6% of the time with an average gain of 0.6% and election-year Decembers have been up 83.3% of the time with an average 1.4% advance. The two-month combo of November and December is collectively up 72.2% of the time with an average gain of 2.0%. Regardless who wins, history still favors a typical yearend rally. S&P 500 deviates from incumbent party victory pattern With just two trading days in the record books, the fourth quarter of 2016 is off to a bumpy start. As of today’s close S&P 500 is down 0.82% and appears to be casting its vote early, against the incumbent party’s candidate Hillary Clinton. Perhaps it is voting for Republican candidate Donald Trump or maybe for Gary Johnson of the Libertarian party. Admittedly it is too early in October to make such a call however; it is notable that S&P 500 has already deviated from its typical path in October compared to past incumbent party victories. In the above chart, S&P 500 performance in October is plotted for “All Years,” “Election Years,” “Incumbent Victories,” “Incumbent Party Defeats” and “2016.” Should S&P 500 continue to track the Incumbent Party Defeat pattern, weakness is likely to persist until near the end of October before a modest rally ensues, but still fails to return to positive territory. Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur Some of you may remember the old saying on the Street, “Buy Rosh Hashanah, Sell Yom Kippur.” Though it had a good record at one time, it stopped working in the middle of the last century. It still gets tossed around every autumn when the “high holidays” are on the minds of traders as many of their Jewish colleagues take off to observe the Jewish New Year and Day of Atonement. The basis for the new pattern is that with many traders and investors busy with religious observance and family, positions are closed out and volume fades creating a buying vacuum. Holiday seasonality around official market holidays is something we pay close attention to (page 88 Stock Trader’s Almanac). Actual stats on the most observed Hebrew holidays have been compiled in the table here. We present the data back to 1971 and when the holiday falls on a weekend the prior market close is used. It’s no coincidence that Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur fall in September and/or October, two dangerous and opportune months. We then took it a step further and calculated the return from Yom Kippur to Passover, which conveniently occurs in March or April, right near the end of our “Best Six Months” Tactical Switching strategy. Perhaps it’s Talmudic wisdom but, selling stocks before the eight-day span of the high holidays has avoided many declines, especially during uncertain times. While being long Yom Kippur to Passover has produced more than twice as many advances, averaging gains of 7.0%. It often pays to be a contrarian when old bromides are tossed around, buying instead of selling Yom Kippur – and selling Passover. Happy Holidays!
Stockaholics come join us in our weekly market poll and vote where you think the markets will end this upcoming week ahead! Weekly SPX Poll - Sentiment (10/10-10/14) <-- click there In addition we have our weekly stock picking contest now up and running as well! Stockaholics Weekly Stock Picking Contest for the Week of (10/10-10/14) <-- click there And lastly we have an SPX price target poll open now! Stockaholics Market Sentiment: SPX - 2175 or 2125 next? It would be awesome to see all of you regulars here at Stockaholics join in and participate on these polls & contests! Have a fantastic weekend everyone!
ShadowTrader Video Weekly 10.9.16 - It just can't get any worse than this... Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
Oct 7 2016 Market Wrap and Sector Watch Some weakness this week. Need to keep an eye on the dollar. Earnings season kicks off with Alcoa on Tuesday Columbus day Monday expect light trading
Get ready for a new round of earnings season! Here are the most anticipated companies coming out with ER this week: $AA $DAL $WFC $JPM $CUDA $FAST $C $VAC $PGR $CSX $INFY $FRC $PNC $OZRK $WGO
Good morning Stockaholics! Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the new trading day- Spoiler: 10/10 Monday's Stock Movers & News: MYL, DB, VIAB, CBS, TWTR, TWLO, FB, TSLA, BABA, MRK, DOW, UTX, MCD, NFLX 10/10 Monday's Stock Movers & News: MYL, DB, VIAB, CBS, TWTR, TWLO, FB, TSLA, BABA, MRK, DOW, UTX, MCD, NFLX Good morning Stockaholics! Happy Monday! Frontrunning: October 10 Rancorous Debate Gets Personal (WSJ) In debate, Trump signals aggressive close to his campaign (AP) Trump Ends Nightmare Weekend With Over-the-Top Debate (BBG) Trump vs Clinton: He calls her a devil, she says he abuses women (Reuters) Ryan discussed revoking Trump endorsement (Politico) Trump's body language during debate raises social media eyebrows (Reuters) Mexican peso rises after Trump-Clinton debate, pound falls again (Reuters) Pound Fails to Shake Off Wounded Image After Week of Flash Crash (BBG) $60 Oil Not ‘Unthinkable’ This Year, Saudi Energy Minister Says (WSJ) OPEC’s Quiet Man Is at Center of Cuts Deal Nobody Saw Coming (BBG) Yemen's Houthis lash out after air strike with missile attack (Reuters) NBC suspends Billy Bush for role on Trump tape (AP) Samsung to Halt Galaxy Note 7 Production Temporarily (WSJ) Samsung Halting Note 7 Output Amid Reports of New Fires (BBG) Global Political Uncertainty Weighs on Growth Outlook (WSJ) China Intensifies Push to Cut Debt With Multi-Agency Blitz (BBG) Almost 1.4 Million Without Power as Matthew Death Toll Rises (BBG) Aftereffects of Matthew to linger in North Carolina (AP) Jack Ma, Spielberg Strike Deal to Bring Hollywood to China (BBG) Banks ponder the meaning of life as Deutsche agonizes (Reuters) Ex-Credit Suisse Trader Wins Dismissal of U.K. Fraud Charges (BBG) STOCK FUTURES NOW: FRIDAY'S MARKET MAP: TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR: MOST ACTIVE TRENDING PRE-MARKET DISCUSSIONS (SYMBOLS ARE CLICKABLE!): BMY MYL TSRO TSLA MRK TWTR GS TSN AEO MCD MZOR LPCN ZIOP ACIA PNRA PBF AGCO VRX UTX DE XXIA HON PXD MENT TODAY'S EARNINGS CALENDAR: THIS MORNING'S PRE-MARKET NEWS MOVERS: source: cnbc.com Mylan — The drugmaker agreed to pay $465 million to settle charges that it overcharged the government for its EpiPen products. Mylan had been accused of incorrectly classifying EpiPen as a generic instead of a branded product. Deutsche Bank — Deutsche Bank were under pressure early in the European session on the lack of expected settlement deal with the Justice Department over its sales of mortgage-backed securities, but subsequently erased its losses and went positive. Viacom, CBS — The two companies may be closer to recombining, withThe Wall Street Journal reporting that both have hired advisers to explore a potential merger. Twitter — Shares are under pressure once again on reports that potential suitors are now unlikely to make a bid for Twitter, with the latest coming from a Bloomberg story over the weekend. Twilio — Twilio filed for a follow-on offering, with most of the shares expected to be sold by existing stockholders. The cloud computing company will not receive any proceeds from those share sales, although it will also sell an undetermined number of shares on its own. Calpine — The power generation company is buying the North American energy distribution unit of Singapore commodities trader Noble Group for $1.05 billion. Facebook — Facebook's U.K. subsidiary generated an 11 million pound (about $12.3 million) tax credit in 2015, even as its revenue jumped, according to numbers released this weekend. Facebook did say it paid all taxes required under U.K. law. Tesla — The automaker will not have to raise new funds during the fourth quarter to fund its acquisition of SolarCity, according to Elon Musk, who is chairman of both companies. That's the opposite of what was said in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission last week. Musk also said Tesla would "probably" not have to raise funds in the first quarter of 2017. Novartis — The drugmaker reported upbeat results in a study that combined an experimental drug with an older treatment to combat breast cancer. The study found that the combined treatment kept the disease in check for a good deal longer than current treatment regimens. Alibaba — The China-based online retailer has formed a partnership with Hollywood director Steven Spielberg's Amblin Partners that will help the Spielberg company distribute movies in China. Merck — Merck reported longer survival rates in a study that treated advanced lung cancer patients with its immune system-boosting drug Keytruda, compared to conventional chemotherapy. Dow Chemical — UBS upgraded Dow to "buy" from "neutral," saying the proposed merger with DuPont could gain regulatory approval and that the stock is now "too cheap to ignore." United Technologies — Citi downgraded the stock to "neutral" from "buy," saying consensus forecasts are too high given a number of underlying issues that will crimp earnings. McDonald's — Telsey Advisory Group resumed coverage on the restaurant chain's shares with an "outperform" rating, praising the "operational metamorphosis" implemented by CEO Steve Easterbrook since he came on board nearly two years ago. Netflix — Deutsche Bank initiated coverage on the video streaming service with a "sell" rating, saying market expectations through 2020 appear to be too high. The firm is positive on the business but said risk/reward is unattractive and that Netflix is unlikely to be the target of a potential buyer. Good trading day to everyone in here on this Monday!
Also just giving this a quick re-post for anyone who might have missed it over the weekend- Have a good trading day and week ahead everyone!
Where is the bottom for BMY One of Cramer's favorite stock, let's see if he will say BUY BUY BUY on Mad Money
I missed a really good trade today that I'd planned on making, and that is sell some naked /es call options after we hit the upper trend line. Ah well. Probably for the best, we may still break out.
Today's podcast was a replay show, but in the first 7 minutes he's gushing something about "Bristol Myers-like strength" lol
Good morning Stockaholics! Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading day on this Tuesday... Spoiler: 10/11 Tuesday's Stock Movers & News: STJ, AA, YHOO, VZ, TWTR, CAG, ILMN, AAPL, CAT, NKE, STX, TWLO 10/11 Tuesday's Stock Movers & News: STJ, AA, YHOO, VZ, TWTR, CAG, ILMN, AAPL, CAT, NKE, STX, TWLOGood morning Stockaholics! Happy Tuesday! Frontrunning: October 11 Samsung scraps Note 7 (Reuters) Note 7 fiasco could burn a $17 billion hole in Samsung accounts (Reuters) Trump's struggles may depress Democratic voter turnout (Reuters) Major Investor Sues Theranos (WSJ) S. Africa’s Gordhan to Be Charged; Rand Plunges Most Since June (BBG) Oil price falls back from one-year highs, hit by OPEC deal concerns (Reuters) Saudi Capital Spending to Drop 71% in 2016 Amid Low Oil Prices (BBG) How Julian Assange Turned WikiLeaks Into Trump’s Best Friend (BBG) Rising OPEC Oil Output Shows Challenge of Curbing Production (WSJ) Hundreds stranded in North Carolina floods after Hurricane Matthew (Reuters) Didi, China’s Uber, Navigates Rough Regulatory Road (WSJ) Apple Pay, Now 2 Years Old, Looks for Ways to Be More Useful (BBG) British lawmaker likens Russia's behavior in Syria to that of Nazis (Reuters) Bankers' love of London complicates Brexit relocation plans (Reuters) Pound Slides a Fourth Day as Analysts Ax Forecasts (BBG) Now Your Boss Can Buy Back Your Vacation Days (BBG) Facebook Rolls Out Workplace Chat Tool (WSJ) Dubai Kicks Off Construction of World’s Tallest Building—Again (BBG) Swiss Regulators Target Banks in 1MDB Crackdown (BBG) STOCK FUTURES NOW: FRIDAY'S MARKET MAP: TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR: MOST ACTIVE TRENDING PRE-MARKET DISCUSSIONS (SYMBOLS ARE CLICKABLE!): AAPL AA TWLO DUST ILMN FAST LPCN OZRK DWTI USO FNSR CAT RDWR MB TPB RDUS STX MYGN MDGN SCHN AVP NSC SUPN PBF TODAY'S EARNINGS CALENDAR: THIS MORNING'S PRE-MARKET NEWS MOVERS: source: cnbc.com St. Jude Medical — The stock is under pressure following a report by short seller Muddy Waters, which posted an alleged medical advisory on premature battery depletion in several St. Jude devices. Alcoa — Alcoa posted earnings of 32 cents a share, missing analysts' estimates of 35 cents a share. Revenue also fell short of expectations. The report comes before Alcoa plans to split into two independent, publicly traded companies. Yahoo — Verizon CEO Lowell McAdam told a California technology conference that his company had no plans to walk away from its planned acquisition of Yahoo's core internet assets. He did say it's possible that the $4.8 billion price tag could be renegotiated in the wake of the recently revealed massive 2014 Yahoo security breach. Twitter — Twitter was upgraded to "hold" from "sell" at Evercore, which based its move on the recent plunge in the share price following reduced prospects for a Twitter sale. ConAgra — The food producer's board approved a $1.25 billion stock buyback program, and also said the spin-off of its Lamb Weston unit would have a record date of November 1 and a distribution date of November 9. Illumina — Illumina cut its revenue guidance because of a bigger-than-expected decline in sales of the company's gene sequencing tools. UBS — UBS was among a handful of banks fined over alleged money laundering activities surrounding Malaysian sovereign investment fund 1MDB. Singapore's monetary authority also fined DBS (Development Bank of Singapore) and shutdown the Singapore operations of Switzerland's Falcon Private Bank. Fiat Chrysler, Cummins — Fiat Chrysler and Cummins are at odds over the $200 million estimated cost of a recall involving 130,000 Dodge Ram pickup trucks equipped with Cummins-made diesel engines. The recall occurred because the engines may exceed U.S. pollution limits. The automaker has sued Cummins for the $60 million it has spent so fair repairing 42,000 of the trucks involved in the recall. Separately, Cummins was upgraded to "buy" from "neutral" and added to the "Conviction Buy" list at Goldman Sachs. CBS — Chief Executive Officer Leslie Moonves would want autonomy in leading the company if a merger with Viacom occurs, according to sources quoted by Reuters. Apple — Apple remains a stock to watch on the mounting mobile phone problems suffered by competitor Samsung, which has now halted all production of Galaxy Note 7 phones amid reports that it may discontinue that model altogether. Caterpillar — Caterpillar was upgraded to "buy" from "neutral" at Goldman Sachs, on optimism about further gains for the heavy equipment maker. Caterpillar is already the Dow industrial average's best year-to-date performer with a gain of nearly 30 percent. Goldman sees the potential for higher profit margins during the current business cycle. Nike — Susquehanna Financial initiated coverage on the athletic footwear and apparel maker with a "positive" rating, saying a 16 percent pullback this year represents a rare opportunity to buy a "world class equity" in a business that's in a favorable cycle. Seagate Technology — JPMorgan Chase upgraded the disk drive maker's stock to "neutral" from "underweight," owing to a slowing decline in sales of server drives as well as reduced exposure for Seagate to the personal computer market. Twilio — The cloud computing company issued preliminary third quarter sales numbers that comes in above the Street's current forecast, helping the stock wipe out part of a Monday loss that followed news of a follow-on stock offering. Good trading day to everyone in here on this Tuesday! Have a great trading day ahead everyone.
