Stock Market Today: April 4th - 8th How April could become a cruel month for stocks Patti Domm | @pattidomm 1 Hour Ago CNBC.com S&P 500 ended March with a 6.6 percent gain in its best month since October, and it began April on a strong foot Friday, gaining 0.6 percent to 2072. While April is typically one of the best months of the year, the combination of an expected poor earnings season and March's heady market gains could result in more lackluster returns. "We think, given the more opaque nature of the news flow into April, you're in for a period of consolidation, a pullback on the way to what we still think are new highs," said Julian Emanuel, equity and derivatives strategist with UBS. Getty Images A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. In the week ahead, traders will be focused on handicapping the Fed's next move and a few pieces of economic data, including ISM services and trade data. The minutes from the last Fed meeting are released Wednesday. Earnings season, where the real trouble could begin, is not until a week later. "Even though the news was very good (on jobs Friday), you have this vacuum going into April. If you think about it, if anything, the Fed message was unclear this week, and is likely to be less clear in April. The political situation, if anything is going to be more uncertain in April than it was in March," said Emanuel. The field of Republican candidates could continue to narrow in April, and analysts expect at some point that the market could react to the presidential race. For now, analysts say the market is pricing a victory by Democrat Hillary Clinton, and if that begins to look unlikely, the market will respond to the new perceived leader. There are also more than a half-dozen Fed speakers on tap for the coming week, as well as an unprecedented roundtable Thursday afternoon featuring Fed Chair Janet Yellen and her three predecessors — Ben Bernanke, Alan Greenspan and Paul Volcker. "It could be interesting but it's not going to move the needle on the monetary policy outlook," said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont. "The FOMC minutes will be important, especially after Yellen's speech last week. We're still trying to find out where the Fed stands right now. The question is, was she trying to push back on April, or are they really not raising rates for a long time?" The markets rallied off of comments from Yellen in the past week, but some Fed watchers found her comments to be even more dovish than expected. Her comments that the Fed would be cautious and that it sees risks pushed back market expectations for a rate hike, and helped weaken the dollar. The dollar index was down 1.6 percent for the week. Analysts have been anticipating a rocky ride for stocks during the first-quarter earnings period which begins in the following week with reports from Alcoa and JPMorgan. "We presume to know this is the bottom of earnings. The reports are going to be horrible. Consensus expects first quarter to be down 7.7 percent," said Emanuel. The first-quarter results could be the worst since the financial crisis. "It's going to be bad but the problem is the equity market has already discounted what we're about to know and so you've discounted all the worse news because the expectations were so low," said Emanuel. Wunderlich Securities strategist Art Hogan said the earnings reports, as usual, could overshoot lowered estimates. "We'll have a sector rotation but there's a credible possibility we'll have upside surprises," said Hogan. He said the data could help lift stocks. "What happened in the first quarter? We thought we were going into a recession. What's happening in the second quarter is things we didn't expect to see, are improving." He pointed to the 215,000 jobs created in March and positives in the employment report, such as a 0.3 percent pickup in average hourly wages and a move higher in the participation rate. S&P HEAT MAP FROM THE PAST WEEK ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD What to Watch in the Week Ahead Monday Earnings: Walgreen Boots Alliance, Darden Restaurants 10 a.m. Factory orders 10:15 a.m. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren 7 p.m. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari 8 p.m. Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan Tuesday Earnings: Pershing Square Holdings 1 a.m. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans in Hong Kong 8:30 a.m. Trade deficit 9:45 a.m. Markit Services PMI 10 a.m. ISM Services; JOLTS Wednesday Earnings: Monsanto, Constellation Brands, RPM International, Apollo Education, Bed Bath and Beyond 2 p.m. FOMC minutes from its March 15-16 meeting 12:20 p.m. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester 6:30 p.m. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard 8 p.m. Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan Thursday Earnings: CarMax, Ruby Tuesday, Duluth, Rite Aid, WD-40 8:30 a.m. Jobless claims 3 p.m. Consumer credit 5:30 p.m. Fed Chair Yellen with former chairmen Bernanke, Greenspan, Volcker on a panel hosted by International House 8:15 p.m. Kansas City Fed President Esther George Friday 10 a.m. Wholesale trade STOCKAHOLICS WEEKLY LINKS >>> Intraday Stock Trades & Swing Trades - All Thoughts & Picks Welcome <<< (Are you currently in a trade, or have a trade idea for the board? Come drop by Stockaholics.net main daily thread for discussing all things stock & swing trading!) >>> Cy's Real-time Stock Market Data Spreadsheet <<< (Live real-time market data for the major indices) >>> Thinkorswim Trading Platform <<< (thinkorswim tutorials, thinkscipts, tips and tricks to get the most out of your thinkorswim platform.) >>>Will this week end Up, Down, or Flat? Vote in --> Weekly SPX Poll - Sentiment (4/4-4/8) THE STOCK MARKET THREAD GUIDELINES Respect your fellow traders. This means no insults, derogatory remarks or any other type of behavior that derails the thread. Keep off topic chatter to a minimum. If the market is flat and nothing is happening, we do not mind hearing about your weekend and your hot girlfriend. If the market is moving and trades are flying the best thing to do is post important stock related events that can help your fellow traders. Are you new? Hold your questions until the end of the trading day, or post them in the Stock Market Education section. Ding! Ding! Ding!
Stocks Spike On "Good Jobs" As Crude Crashes "Off the lows"... So this just happened... But it doesn't really matter when all it takes is a phone call... Post-Payrolls, stocks faded until the US open, and then took off... Thanks to Dennis Gartman, The Dow surged 250 points off the lows... On the day, good jobs was bad news but good ISM was good news... On the week, Small Caps soared but Trannies were unable to get out green... Year-to-date, Russell 2000 and Nasdaq remain the red as Trannies outperform... VIX was battered almost every day...trading to 13.00! With VIX in control, stocks decoupled from bonds and FX carry.... And Stocks totally decoupled from oil today at the US open... Despite the equity strength, bonds also surged with yields down 6bps (30Y) to 15bps (5Y) on the week... The USD Index tumbled most in 2 months to its lowest close since Oct 2015...(driven by a surge in JPY) The USD Index suffered a "Death Cross" this week - will it be a false alarm like in October? Gold managed to close the in the green (best week in a month) as crude was clobbered... This was Crude's first losing week in 7 weeks - pushing crude to one-month lows... So on the week - Stocks Up, Bonds Up, Gold Up, Dollar Down, Oil Down... Charts: Bloomberg Bonus Chart: Reminder - You Are Here
Weekend Reading: Bulls vs Bears - Who Will Win? Submitted by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, As March marked the beginning of spring, the bulls were stampeded by a “perfect storm” of Central Bank actions. From the ECB dropping rates into negative territory and launching a bigger “quantitative easing” program, to the Federal Reserve backing off its plans to hike interest rates this year, the “accommodative support” gave the bulls the clearance they needed to pile back into equities. With a short-term improvement in the technical underpinnings of the markets and an improvement in overall sentiment, the short-covering fueled rally pushed the S&P 500 back into positive territory for the year. That is where the bulls find their victory. Yet, despite all of the “whooping and hollering” by the bulls, there has actually been little progress made. Yes, the rally from the lows has been very inspiring, but it is the same rally as seen from the previous two lows. With volume declining on the rally as short-covering fades, the thrust of Central Bank actions now behind us, the focus will once again turn to the economic and fundamental data. From that standpoint, the “bears” remain firm in the commitments. With profit margins and earnings on the decline, economic data weak and interest rates hovering near lows, there is little support for an ongoing bull rally. But then again, the current rally has defied expected logic up to this point. Will it continue, or will it die a quick death? With traditional summer weakness fast approaching, that is the question that must be answered and the subject of this weekend’s reading. It’s the bulls versus the bears – who will win?
520 days since QE ended, Just 4.8% Gain It has been 520 calendar days since the Fed announced the end of QE on October 29, 2014. From that day’s close through today’s close, DJIA has risen a meager 4.8%. QE’s consequences and/or benefits are not likely to be fully known or understood for years. One clear benefit was the boost it gave to stock markets which likely played a substantial role in restoring confidence in the financial system and, to some extent, the economy. Another benefit, visible on the chart above, was subdued market volatility. It should also be clear why the market responded as it did earlier this week when it heard the Fed Chair’s dovish comments on the path of future rate hikes and the availability of stimulus.
ShadowTrader Video Weekly 04.03.16 - It's all about what DOESN'T happen Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
Frontrunning: April 4 Ties between Germany and Russia enter new chill (Reuters) Tax authorities begin probes into some people named in Panama Papers leak (Reuters) SEC investigates ex-JPMorgan debt traders (FT) Who Will Win Wisconsin? Here Are Six Credible Predictions (BBG) Victim in Wall St. Scheme Was a Classmate of Its Accused Architect (NYT) Makers took big price increases on widely used U.S. drugs (Reuters) Fed’s New Bank Critic Keeps Heat On (WSJ) Biggest Ever Saudi Overhaul Targets $100 Billion of Revenue (BBG) Behind Anbang’s Curious Starwood Courtship (WSJ) Migrants sent back from Greece arrive in Turkey under EU deal (Reuters) Tesla Model 3 orders point to potential $10bn sales (FT) Euro-Area Unemployment Declines to Lowest Since 2011 (BBG) Saudi Arabia Enters Homebuilding Business to Tackle Shortage (BBG) Bernie Sanders' ghost tweeter keeps his Brooklyn accent (Reuters) Alaska Air to buy Virgin America for $2.6 billion (Reuters) ECB to Keep Up Forceful Action on Price Risks, Praet Says (BBG) Spoiler: Early movers: VA, TSLA, GE, GPS, BX, TIME, FB, HAIN, SPLS, HPQ & more Virgin America — The airline announced a deal to be bought by Alaska Air for $57 per share in cash. Alaska Air beat out JetBlue, which was also interested in buying Virgin America. The carriers hope to close the deal by January 1, 2017. Tesla — Orders for the automaker's upcoming Model 3 continuing to surge. At last count, reservations had topped 276,000 for the $35,000 car that is due out late in 2017. General Electric — Bernstein downgraded GE to "market perform" from "outperform" on a valuation basis, after GE shares rose 27 percent over the past year. Gap — KeyBanc upgraded the apparel retailer to "overweight," saying an increase in apparel demand and a weakening dollar will help the parent of the Gap, Old Navy, and Banana Republic chains. Smith & Wesson — BB&T cut its rating on the gun maker to "hold" from "buy," both on a valuation basis after the stock's rise as well as a slowdown in insider buying. J.M. Smucker — Goldman Sachs downgraded the food maker's stock to "sell" from "neutral," saying it expects a series of negative earnings estimate revisions due to challenges in both core and recently acquired businesses. Blackstone — Blackstone bought Hewlett Packard Enterprise's 60.5 percent stake in India-based outsourcing services firm MphasiS, and also offered to buy a 26 percent stake from public shareholders. That puts Blackstone's total possibly outlay at $1.1 billion. Separately, Blackstone denied a report that it is considering a deal to buy Brazilian mall operator BR Malls Participacoes. Time Warner — Time Warner shares could jump 25 percent over the next year, according to a Barron's article. The paper points to the box office success of "Batman vs. Superman," as well as a slate of nine more superhero movies in the works. SunEdison — SunEdison is planning to file for bankruptcy protection within weeks, according to The Wall Street Journal. The paper said the solar power company is in talks with creditors for a loan to fund operations during the bankruptcy filing process. Time Inc. — The publisher is considering a partnership with a private equity firm to bid for Yahoo's internet assets, according to Reuters. Facebook — Facebook's Oculus unit is experiencing delays in shipping Oculus VR virtual-reality headsets, due to parts shortages. It's not known how long the delay might be or how many shipments would be affected. Hain Celestial — The natural products maker is reformulating dozens of its shampoos, skin cleansers and other products, and dropping claims involving a controversial ingredient called sodium lauryl sulfate. Hain and other companies have said their products contain "no harsh chemicals." HP Inc. — The computer maker is set to unveil an ultra-thin laptop Tuesday, hoping to make inroads in a premium market that has been among the better performers in the declining PC industry. Staples — The office supplies retailer has offered to freeze prices to win government approval for its planned buyout of Office Depot, according to the New York Post. ________________________________________________________________________________________ Here are this morning's most active trending pre-market discussions- (stock symbols are clickable!) FB VA TSLA EW JBLU ZFGN ALK JCP INO ESRX AAPL SWHC SUNE BIDU ETE SHPG JUNO IBB BIIB GILD UNH NEM HPQ DHR CPB ________________________________________________________________________________________ Here are today's earnings reports- ________________________________________________________________________________________ Here are today's economic events- ________________________________________________________________________________________ Markets Now- ________________________________________________________________________________________ Happy trading to all you in here today on this very first trading day ever at the new Stockaholics.net!
Terraform Global sues SunEdison for breach of contract April 4 (Reuters) - Terraform Global Inc(GLBL) sued its parent and controlling stockholder, SunEdison Inc(SUNE), for breach of contract on Monday, alleging the struggling renewable energy company misappropriated $231 million of Terraform's cash, according to a filing in a Delaware court. (Reporting by Tom Hals in Wilmington, Delaware; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)
Wow. In on new thread on the new forum! Markets look to be taking a breather, with the DJIA most likely heading to retest prior resistance down at 17645. Gold is very weak and a break below 1200 will send it sub 1000.
