Have to think a Clinton's victory and a split Congress is pretty much priced in here, we might not get that big of a rally on Wednesday even if she wins. I could be totally wrong on that of course
Oh, it would be very epic. Unfortunately everyone (not talking here, but talking about other internet "water coolers") looks at this election as "the worst choices ever". But when I look at Brexit and this Presidential election, I see the people running against what the powers that be try to force down their throat. Look at the Republican primary: Trump, a non-politician, ran right through the anointed favorites (Bush, Cruz, etc.); if indeed all the anti-Clinton voters want is a white male, then why did Bush/Cruz not have a chance against Trump? Why did a non-Republican make it through that primary? And look at the Democrat primary. Clinton was anointed from the start, yet a non-party favorite Bernie Sanders, kept on winning states. I am not questioning that Hillary beat Bernie there, but you have to see that Bernie kept getting voters to come out for him up to the very end. In my eyes, Bernie is not really a Democrat, and that is reinforced by the leaked emails from the party heads that tried to get rid of him. How did a non-Democrat almost make it through that primary? People are tired of Democrats/Republicans just running a "race" in name only, where nothing changes. The power remains static, and the elected leaders curry favor to their un-elected "advisers" and donors. That is such a dirty part of this game. We are tired of them making laws, and then the rich not being held to those laws (e.g. Wells Fargo with their identity theft on a grand scale -- now L.A. county thinks we need to make a law prohibiting sales goals, well instead how about enforcing the laws that we already have, and apply them to the rich as well?). This is about more than Republican vs. Democrat for me. I know to others it is just that, and that's fine, everyone should vote their heart and their beliefs, and we live with that. But I take joy to see that someone outside The Big Two parties has a chance to win the presidency. This is what it takes for the parties to actually listen to the people. Ultimately, Brexit may not be a good choice for the people. But we know that the political powers in Europe wanted Bremain to win out, and they just assumed the people would go along with them. The people showed that they need to be convinced that the political powers will keep the people in mind, and not just their cronies.
I read an article on Bloomberg, but can't find it right now, which said ~70% of the time the market drops on post-election day. It was totally a Cy factoid. edit -- found it: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...he-stock-market-goes-crazy-after-the-election
Earnings pre-market tomorrow: ($VRX $CVS $ENDP $OA $HL $W $DHI $MOMO $JCI $LGIH $QVCA $SEAS $OPHT $GTN $EXPD $CNK $MZOR $TAST $CRK)
Well, I'm extremely net short right now. I didn't mean to get this short, but I am. I'm also long volitility and plan to get longer today. I'm hoping that no matter who wins, we have a nice flush to the downside on Wednesday. But even better than that would be A) A surprise Trump win or B) Super duper indecision with a 269/269 vote split. Maybe even another Bush V Gore situation. Then I'd probably be able to retire early. The trick is to make the play and be ready to dump out without losing too much if things don't go my way.
markets closing right up on the HOD at the close here ... this market has either got this election right or horribly wrong ... stay tuned tomorrow & wednesday to find out lol
cash spx came within 1 handle of literally taking out last week's high! (where is that kool-aid man smiley when you need it!! lol ) we basically took back 9 days of loses in 1 day lmao (well not really ... would have needed to rally another 15 handles) and interesting that we're back to this 2130 again ........
I'm of the opinion we have a 75% chance of a sell-off Wednesday. Probably flat to up tomorrow though (unless exit poling is unexpected). Based on popular opinion, if Trump wins we sell-off. If there is a tie or contested results we sell-off. Then there is a 50/50 chance a Hillary win we sell-off. Maybe sell the news type event. I'm short and I'm expecting a larger move to the downside than to the upside. We're closer to trend resistance than support. We also have the potential rate hike which I'm seriously doubting is already baked in. I think recent market moves were earnings related and (only some) election jitters. Therefore I think breaking out to the upside is a lot more difficult than most anticipate. I guess what I'm saying is that there are more headwinds than tailwinds.
I'm 100% cash as of today. Closed my last position in AMD. Still holding a small position in AMD in my 401K, but that's it. I'll jump back in after the election most likely, but similar to Brexit, the upside of staying in right now is pretty low IMO, and the risk is tremendously larger. The risk/reward ratio just DOES NOT make sense. If I'm wrong, I can get back in to my positions and I doubt I miss many gains at all.
I think even if Trump wins in a landslide, the exit polls tomorrow morning will show Hillary winning. Which will cause a market rally, probably not as large today. Did you know this year they are doing something different? Usually, exit polls are conducted and they sit in a room without cell phones doing math until the polls close. As soon as the polls close, they start announcing exit poll data and calling states that aren't close. But tomorrow they've decided to do it differently. Tomorrow there is a new group that has said they will start releasing exit poll info at 8am.
Really? I didn't know that. I thought it was going to be a pretty boring flat day tomorrow, but maybe it will be a wild day lol.
So far, it's Trump 32, Clinton 25 in New Hampshire between the three places Dixville Notch, Harts Place and Millsfield. Those three places voted Obama 33 and Romney 29 in 2012. Obama went on to win the state by about 5 or 6 percentage points. No market sell off yet!
Good morning Stockaholics! Happy U.S. Presidential Election Day! The big *cough* day *cough* is finally here at last! Worst election cycle in history imo here ... the good news? It will finally be all over (hopefully anyway...) after tonight and we can get on with it already!
11/8 Stock Market Movers & News- Spoiler: 11/8 Tuesday's Stock News Movers: VRX, TSLA, CVS, DHI, W, XRX, GS, BAC, BBY, PCLN, FDX, SWHC & more 11/8 Tuesday's Stock News Movers: VRX, TSLA, CVS, DHI, W, XRX, GS, BAC, BBY, PCLN, FDX, SWHC & moreGood day Stockaholics! Happy Election Day Tuesday! Frontrunning: November 8 At last, America decides (Reuters) America’s Voters Finally Get Their Day (BBG) This Election Has One Sure Thing: A More Dysfunctional Congress (BBG) Control of the Senate Goes Down to the Wire (WSJ) 2016 Election Day: Live Results and Analysis (WSJ) Dollar Volatility Drops as Clinton Leads in Final Election Poll (BBG) Gun control measures expected to win in four states (Reuters) Voters could legalize marijuana for quarter of all Americans (Reuters) Trump’s Big-Money Cavalry Never Rode to His Rescue (BBG) Trump tears up political rule book with media ad strategy (FT) Iran to Sign $6 Billion Gas-Field Deal With Total, CNPC (WSJ) Valeant Cuts 2016 Forecast to Below Estimates After Big Losses (BBG) Samsung Drawn Into Korean Political Crisis After Offices Raided (BBG) Boeing’s Retiring Boomers Underscore U.S. Manufacturing Plight (BBG) Anxiety in Manila as Duterte Blasts U.S., Embraces China (BBG) No revenge in Brexit but market access needs migration: Juncker (Reuters) Blackstone Ends Southeast Asia Venture as Oil Deals Dry Up (WSJ) Hong Kong Banker Rurik Jutting Guilty of Murdering Two Women (BBG) Smith & Wesson Wants to Change Its Name (BBG) Blast rocks pipeline feeding Forcados terminal in Nigeria's Delta (Reuters) STOCK FUTURES NOW: YESTERDAY'S MARKET HEAT MAP: YESTERDAY'S S&P SECTORS: TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR: MOST ACTIVE TRENDING PRE-MARKET DISCUSSIONS (TICKER SYMBOLS ARE CLICKABLE!): VRX DGAZ CVS ENDP HTZ WATT MOMO W MT CNK TXMD CARA NVRO APEI PCLN DHI CNCE TSQ INSY PGNX HL TM WRK TPRE THIS MORNING'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS CALENDAR: THIS MORNING'S PRE-MARKET NEWS MOVERS: source: cnbc.com Valeant Pharmaceuticals — The drugmaker reported adjusted quarterly profit of $1.55 per share, missing estimates of $1.75 a share. Revenue came in below estimates, as well, and Valeant also cut its full-year forecast. CEO Joseph Papa did say the company is making progress with its ongoing restructuring of operations. Tesla — Tesla announced a deal to buy German engineering firm Grohmann for an undisclosed amount, in a move the automaker said would further its push into high-volume manufacturing. CVS Health — The drugstore operator earned an adjusted $1.64 per share for its latest quarter, seven cents a share above estimates. The company's revenue fell short of estimates, however, and it cut its full-year forecast. CVS said it was seeing slowing prescription growth as well as a soft seasonal business. Separately, CVS announced a new $15 billion stock buyback program. DR Horton — The homebuilder fell two cents a share short of estimates, with quarterly earnings of 75 cents per share. Revenue also came in slightly below forecasts. Its results were impacted by a jump in cancellations. DR Horton also announced a 25 percent quarterly dividend increase to 10 cents per share. Wayfair — The online home furnishings retailer lost 54 cents per share for its latest quarter, smaller than the 60 cent loss that analysts were expecting. Revenue came in above forecasts. Wayfair said it gained significant market share during the quarter and remains optimistic about its long-term profit potential. Xerox — The company's board approved the terms of Xerox's upcoming split into two separate companies, and expects to complete the split by December 31. Xerox shareholders will get one share of the new company known as Conduent for every five Xerox shares they now hold. Goldman Sachs — Citi downgraded Goldman to "neutral" from "buy," in a call based on valuation relative to earnings expectations. Bank of America — Deutsche Bank downgraded the stock to "hold" from "buy," noting the strong performance of the stock from 2016 lows and what it sees as modest additional upside potential. Anheuser-Busch InBev — The beer brewer has gotten at least six bids for brands that it is selling, according to Reuters. Among the reported bidders: Japan's Asahi Group, and private-equity firms Bain Capital and Kohlberg Kravis Roberts. SeaWorld — The theme park operator posted quarterly profit of 77 cents per share, well short of the $1.08 a share expected by analysts. Revenue did beat estimates, but the bottom line was impacted by a 20 percent jump in overhead costs. Best Buy — Evercore cut its rating on the electronics retailer to "sell," based on valuation as well as a saturated smartphone market and a shift in high end TVs toward discounters and online sellers. Priceline Group — Priceline reported adjusted quarterly profit of $31.18 per share, beating estimates of $29.91 a share. The travel services company also saw revenue beat forecasts, as well as the number of bookings, but its current-quarter guidance falls below consensus estimates. It also announced a $941 million write-down related to its OpenTable service. News Corp. — News Corp. lost an adjusted one cent per share for its latest quarter, slightly worse than the breakeven quarter analysts had expected. The media company's revenue came in very slightly ahead of estimates, but its results were hurt by a tough print ad market, as well as foreign currency issues. Marriott — Marriott came in three cents a share ahead of estimates with adjusted quarterly profit of 91 cents per share, but the hotel operator's revenue came in below forecasts. Its overall profit was hurt by costs related to its now-completed acquisition of rival Starwood. Hertz — Hertz reported quarterly profit of $1.58 per share, substantially below estimates of $2.73 a share. Revenue also missed forecasts. The car rental company cut its outlook for the year, as well, as car-rental levels continue to be weak. Rival Avis Budget's shares fell in sympathy following Hertz's quarterly report. Align Technology — The maker of the Invisalign dental brace system reported quarterly profit of 63 cents per share, beating estimates by 11 cents a share. Revenue also beat forecasts on a surge in Invisalign case volume. Separately, Align announced the retirement of Chief Financial Officer David White, who will be replaced by former NBCUniversal executive John Morici. (Disclosure: NBCUniversal is parent of CNBC.) FedEx — FedEx temporarily grounded one of its jets after General Electric warned airlines about a possible problem with one of its engines. The FedEx jet contains the engine that GE identified. Mylan — Mylan would be the subject of an antitrust probe over its EpiPen product if a Senate panel gets its way. The Judiciary Committee is urging regulators to investigate whether Mylan broke the law by keeping schools from purchasing EpiPen competitors. UPS — UPS is buying logistics company Marken for an undisclosed sum, expanding its move into medical deliveries. Smith & Wesson — Smith & Wesson plans to ask shareholders to approve a change in its corporate name to American Outdoor Brands, however it plans to keep using the Smith & Wesson name for its handguns. Arconic — Arconic won its first major supply deal since being spun off from Alcoa, a $1 billion contract with aircraft maker Airbus to supply aluminum products. Toyota — Toyota reported a 36 percent decline in net profit for its fiscal second quarter, with the automaker's results hurt by a strong yen and weak U.S. sales. The results topped analysts' forecasts. Dow Chemical, DuPont — Reuters reports that a group of state attorneys general have joined a federal antitrust probe into the planned merger between the two chemical companies. Twitter — Twitter is considering offers to buy its Vine service, according to TechCrunch, despite having announced plans last month to shut down the short-form video service. Have a good trading day to everyone in here on this Tuesday!
