I really want a pull back to the rate decision low and a drop below 1.06 or maybe closer to 1.05. A test of the actual weekly support would reset this for the mega move to 1.10 IMO. I HOPE THE TRAIN DOESNT LEAVE NOW!
Also I wanted to throw this chart out. Mexico! I think it has bottomed I wrote on my blog it's the chart of the week! I'm buying pesos. And buying Mexico! Doubly bottom. RSI negative Bullish Divergence. And the RSI and Price downtrend trendlines are both breaking.
On the pisso/EWW, what do you make of that delayed dead-cat bounce up to $46.69 that could only muster a 38% retracement of the body slam? Kinda weak isn't it? Not really what I'd call a change of character from the downtrend that began at $73. On a larger time frame, this has taken out all the swing lows except one, at $21.52. I would need more convincing to buy the chiclet for more than a scalp trade.
this is what I see on the peso. Are you really going to short the peso up here? I am longing it. Those trendlines and voodoo TA say the peso is about to strengthen, bigly (Trump voice)
Just to clarify, your chart above is the USD priced in MXN; it shows about 21.55 pesos to purchase one USD. So when you ask would I short the peso; you are asking if I would go long your chart; would I go long the USD/MXN. Apparently you think the broadening pattern you've drawn has significance and the USD/MXN will honor your supply line and go down, and thus the MXN will rise against the dollar. Let us say the MXN will bounce higher. That would be a positive to dollar-denominated trading accounts holding the EWW but the components of the EWW may not fare too well in a rising MXN environment. It's a double-edged sword. But just to focus on the MXN, below is the inverse of your chart, the MXN/USD weekly bars. I just don't see any broadening trend lines on my chart. Looks like an orderly continuation of the downtrend to me.
that is correct. I am shorting USDMXN on forex. Going long the Peso banking on he Peso beginning to strengthen and obviously the dollar weakening.
Well, they are inverts of each other for one. Also, mine is a weekly, which would be less noisy. Otherwise they are the same. The thing you did not point out for your side of this discussion is the heavy volume that came in on the last big move (up on your USD/MXN and down on the EWW). It could be climatic, the big guys could have been buying the peso and EWW. But so far there hasn't been much of a bounce. Which takes me back to my original comment on the EWW. I would have expected a better short-covering rally. But as you know the selling climax (EWW & MXN/USD)can take awhile to print, it is not always the stick with highest volume. So, you may be proven right.
No idea why that happened @Baggi but if it should happen again let us know asap. Could have just been a fluke glitch there.
The good news is, I think we're at or very near the top. I plan to go short before bed tonight, or maybe tomorrow after market open.
