Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of January 30th! This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: Major Indices End of Week: Bird's Eye view of the Major Markets on Friday: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD: What to Watch in the Week Ahead: Monday Earnings: Enterprise Products, Booz Allen Hamilton, General Growth Properties, Leggett & Platt, Reinsurance Group of America, Crane, Graco 8:30 a.m. Personal income 8:30 a.m. Consumer spending 10:00 a.m. Pending home sales 10:30 a.m. Dallas Fed manufacturing Tuesday Earnings: Apple, Eli Lilly, Exxon Mobil, MasterCard, Pfizer, Simon Property Group, UPS, Aetna, AmerisourceBergen, CIT Group, Coach, Danaher, Harley-Davidson, HCA, Nasdaq OMX, Nomura Holdings, Nucor, Paccar, Pentair, Sprint, Thermo Fisher, Under Armour, Aflac, Valero Energy, Xerox, Anadarko, Advanced Micro, Fortune Brands, Chubb, U.S. Steel, WR Berkley 8:30 a.m. Q4 Employment cost index 9:00 a.m. S&P Case-Shiller HPI 9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI 10:00 a.m. Consumer confidence 10:00 a.m. Housing vacancies Wednesday Earnings: Facebook, Allstate, Ameriprise, Unum Group, Ameriprise, MetLife, Siemens, Anthem, Tupperware, Baxter, Johnson Controls, Symantec, IAC/Interactive, American Financial Group, Cabot, Legg Mason, Automatic Data, Baxter, Celanese, Dominion, Ingersoll-Rand,Marathon Petroleum, WEC Energy, Pitney Bowes, Owens-Illinois, Torchmark, Cirrus Logic, Altria 8:15 a.m. ADP payrolls 9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI 10:00 a.m. ISM manufacturing 10:00 a.m. Construction spending 2:00 p.m. Fed decision Thursday Earnings:Merck & Co Inc Merck, Amazon.com, Amgen, Visa, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Estee Lauder, ConocoPhillips, Deutsche Bank, Philip Morris, Royal Dutch Shell, AutoLiv, Ball Corp, Cigna, NYTimes, AstraZeneca, Daimler, Novo Nordisk, Becton Dickinson, Boston Scientific, CME Group, Delphi Automotive, Marsh and McLennan, Ralph Lauren, Parker Hannifin, Sony, Sirius XM Radio, International Paper, A.O. Smith, Virtu Financial, Ryder System, Lazard, CMS Energy, Eaton, Estee Lauder, Kimco Realty, Motorola Solutions, athenahealth, Decker's Outdoor, DeVry Education, FireEye, GoPro 8:30 a.m. Jobless claims 8:30 a.m. Productivity 8:30 a.m. Unit labor costs Friday Earnings: Hershey, Honda Motor, AutoNation, Clorox, Philips 66, Apollo Global Management, LyondellBasell, Weyerhaeuser, Madison Square Garden 8:30 a.m. Nonfarm payrolls 9:15 a.m. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans 9:45 a.m. Services PMI 10:00 a.m. ISM non-mfg. 10:00 a.m. Factory orders
Stocks Soar To Record Highs As Peso Jumps Most In A Year Just seemed appropriate... Ugly GDP helped take US Macro to its worst weekly drop in over 3 months... Stocks had their best week in 2 months...(Trannies best, S&P worst) Banks had a great week...(post-Inauguration) But we wanted to bring this to stock traders' attention... Note however that the short-squeeze highs were hit on Wednesday's open... VIX plunged to its 2nd lowest close in 11 years... and note the desperate VIX plunge to get Dow back above 20100 into the close... As realized vol crashed... The VIX curve has steepened drastically... The collapse in VIX has pushed the relative risk of stocks to bonds to near-record lows (something that has not ended well previously)... With all the excitment in stocks, bonds ended the week barely unchanged (0-2bps higher)... The USD Index fell for the 5th week in a row, closing at 2-month lows... Yuan sold off into golden week (which is seasonally normal)... The Mexican Peso surged to its best week in almost a year - the 3%-plus spike is the best since Feb 2016... Oil ended the week unchanged, glued around the $53 level... But RBOB (amid major inventory builds) tumbled for the 4th week in a row... Silver spiked back to unchanged on the week... And gold was monkeyhammered to its worst week in 6 weeks, back below $1200... Top-down things don't seem so awesome... And the gap between reality and hope is at a record high...
Spoiler: Weekend Reading: Trump-eting Dow 20,000 (CLICK TO SHOW!) Submitted by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Well, it finally happened. After repeated attempts by investors to push the Dow above the psychological barrier of 20,000, it finally occurred during a flurry of executive orders and actions during the first week of the Trump Administration. Between orders for building a wall, orders to freeze regulations and plans being discussed for infrastructure projects, the basic material, technology and industrial sectors pulled all three major indices to historic highs as investors bet on increased spending and growth. Of course, the push to all-time highs has also led to a further extension of the overbought and overly exuberant conditions of the market. As noted yesterday, the stock-bond ratio is at levels that have previously denoted trouble for the markets. Furthermore, while interest rates turned up this week after their recent decline, the historic relationship between extremely suppressed volatility and the 10-year Treasury rate suggests a “flight to safety” is likely not too far into the future. I can only surmise how this eventually turns out. But whether it is extremely suppressed volatility, extreme long positions in small-cap stocks or historical short positions in bonds, the “rubber band” is stretched very tightly. Of course, while “Trump-xuberance” currently reigns, there seems to be nothing to worry about. But then again, maybe that is exactly what we should be worrying about. In them meantime, here is what I am reading this weekend as I wear my “Dow 20,000” hat. Trump Stockman: Trump Sitting On Fiscal Time Bomb by Craig Wilson via Daily Reckoning Open Letter To President Trump by Danielle DiMartino-Booth via Money Strong Trumps Border Tax Will Drive Up Gas Prices by Rachael Levy via BI Cheaper, Better Insurance? Good Luck by David Lazarus via LA Times GOP Leads Off With A Tax Increase by John Tamny via Forbes Trumps Tax Breaks Will Let You Bring More Home by Jonathon Trugman via NY Post How Trump Can Rebuild America At 50% Off by Nicole Gelinas via NY Post Trump’s $10 Trillion Stimulus Plan by Stephen Moore via The Washington Times Trump Missed His Chance To “Drain The Swamp” by David Stockman via Daily Reckoning Trump Doing Just Fine W/O Economists by Diana Furchtgott-Roth via US News Could Trump Tank The Economy? by Jeff Spross via The Week Infrastructure Spending Deemed Most Important by Ben Ryan via Gallup CEO’s Fear A Trump Twitter-Tirade by Andrew Ross-Sorkin via NY Times Why Trump Could Fail by Jeff Harding via An Independent Mind Can Protectionism Make America Great Again? by Niall Ferguson via Boston Globe Markets Caterpillar: Weak Global Conditions by Bob Bryan via Business Insider Dow 20,000: Don’t Be Euphoric, Be Cautious by Jason Zweig via WSJ Wall Street Analysts Give Investors What They Want by Matt Levine via Bloomberg Illusions Driving Up U.S. Asset Prices by Robert Shiller via Project Syndicate Time To Change To A Trump Portfolio? by Sue Chang via MarketWatch 2nd Largest Bubble In 100-Years by Erik McCurdy via Investing.com Biggest Market Risk Is A Policy Mistake by Jim Joslin & Renee Kwok via TFC Fin. Mgmt. Is Trump Setting Oil Up For Another Bust? by Nick Cunningham via OilPrice.com Trump’s Wall Of Worry Might Be Good For Stocks by William Watts via MarketWatch Why The Bond Bloodbath May Not Come by Howard Gold via MarketWatch Buy The Bond Market Dip by Abee Crombie via Macro Man Why Dow 20,000 May Not Last Long by Anthony Mirhaydari via Fiscal Times How The Trump Rally Stacks Up by William Watts via MarketWatch Trump Bump To Trump Dump? Not So Fast by Shawn Langlois via MarketWatch Interesting Reads UBS: Americans Still Lie On Loan Apps by Matt Turner via BI 90’s Mantra Of “Strong Dollar” Retooled For Trump Era by Caroline Baum via MarketWatch How Obama Made $20 Million While In Office by Dan Alexander via Forbes Student Debt Payback Far Worse Than Believed by Andrea Fuller via WSJ The Order Of Operation by Jeffrey Snider via RCM Stop Rewarding Unimaginative Politicians by Kevin Williamson via National Review What Financial Advisors Are Doing In The Trump Era by Paul Katzeff via IBD $90 Bil Debt Wave Showing Cracks In Property Boom by Sarah Mulholland via Bloomberg Time Is Not On Your Side With Credit Debt by Ann Carrns via NY Times Inside Obama’s 235% Return by Nathan Vardi via Forbes Inflation: It Won’t Last by Satyajit Das via Bloomberg Cool Graphic Shows Jobs Vulnerable To Automation by Julia La Roche via Yahoo Reign Of Economic Error Plagues Housing Market by Aaron Layman Bernanke: The Fed Shouldn’t Shrink Its Balance Sheet by Tyler Durden via ZeroHedge Who Exactly Is The Currency Manipulator by Richard Moody via Regions #CrashSignatures Signal Market Losses by John Hussman via Hussman Funds The Wait Is Over – NYSE 11,250 by Dana Lyons via Tumblr Will Trump Prick The “Big, Fat, Ugly Bubble?” by Jesse Felder via The Felder Report “Gambling with cards or dice or stock is all one thing. It i??s getting money without giving an equivalent for it.” -? Henry Ward Beecher
First 100 Days of New, Elected Administrations: S&P 500 Slumps in February Earlier in the year we examined the markets performance from Election Day to Inauguration Day and at the end of the first 100 days of newly elected presidential administrations. Since 1950 there have been nine elected new presidents, five were Republicans and four were Democrats. In the above chart, the average S&P 500 performance during new presidents first 100 days in office is plotted. Only Democrats, only Republicans, both parties and the Trump administrations (through today’s close) are compared. At the end of the first 100 days, new Democrats were accompanied by the greatest average S&P 500 gains. However, regardless of party, S&P 500 did reach an early February peak before moving lower through the balance of the month. S&P 500 performance during President Trump’s first week in office has been above average when compared to past Republican administrations, but is still lagging new Democrats. February Worst Month of Post-Election Years Usually the weak link in the Best Six months, February tends to follow the current trend, though big January gains often correct or consolidate during the month of Valentines and Presidents as Wall Street evaluates and adjusts market outlooks based on January’s performance. Since 1950, January S&P 500 gains of 2% or more corrected or consolidated in February 62.1% of the time. In the 20 years that the S&P 500 gained 4% or more in January, 65.0% of the time the S&P declined or finished flat (less than 1% gain) in February. Since 1950, February is up slightly more than half the time and, depending on the index, up marginally on average. However, small cap stocks, benefiting from “January Effect” carry over; tend to outpace large cap stocks in February. The Russell 2000 index of small cap stocks turns in an average gain of 1.2% in February since 1979—just the seventh best month for that benchmark. February’s post-election year performance since 1950 is miserable, ranking dead last for S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000. Average losses have been sizable: -1.8%, -3.9%, -1.9%, and -2.0% respectively. February is eleventh for DJIA with an average loss of 1.4%. February 2001 and 2009 were exceptionally brutal. Forget Dow 20,000 and get ready for 38,820 After repeated attempts at breaking through 20,000, DJIA finally cleared this hurdle today. Technically, DJIA 20,000 does not mean that much. It’s a psychological artificial threshold people like to focus on. It is a nice round, headline filling number. It means the sum of the DJIA 30 stock prices divided by the divisor exceeds 20,000. The plethora of new all-time highs is more significant to me, it shows underlying market and economic strength and strength generally begets strength. But these big round number levels can be challenging to leave behind in short order. Historically round numbers like 100, 1000, 10000 have been a challenge for DJIA. DJIA first traded above 100 in 1916, but did not leave it in the dust until 1942 (26 years). DJIA 1000 was reached in 1972 and hung around until 1982. DJIA 10,000 was reached in 1999 and was still in play in 2010. And according to some bears, 10,000 is still in play. Other round numbers like 2000, 3000, 4000, 5000 and 6000 enjoyed greater success. Will 20,000 be in the first group or second? It’s too early to say. Valuations are getting stretched and some profit taking is likely around 20,000, but if economic data and corporate earnings firm and accelerate, then 20,000 could easily be left behind. DJIA 20,000 does bring my forecast for Dow 38,820 by the year 2025 into brighter light. Based on a major historical cycle pattern we discovered in 1976, I made this forecast in May of 2010 around Dow 10,000 after it was clear that the 2009 low was the secular bear low. The main factors for that Super Boom forecast are now beginning to fall into place. The new administration could bring an end to the political stalemate in Washington and signal a new era of political functionality like we had in the 1980s and 1990s. Plus signs of healthy inflation are perking up. Add in disengagement on the ground militarily in the Middle and Near East and a new paradigm-shifting, culturally-enabling technology and we will be off to a string of double digit market gains in the coming years. Any major stumbles by the new Trump administration could easily derail this good case scenario and instigate a mild bear market in the 2017-2018 timeframe. We will be watching the first 100 days and Q1 and Q2 of 2017 judiciously. S&P 500 Streaks without 1% or greater daily loss Earlier in the day the market was on track for its worst day of 2017 thus far. But, before hitting the panic button, the worst daily S&P 500 loss of 2017 was 0.36% last Thursday (based upon daily closes). This is not all that bad. In fact, including today, S&P 500 has gone 70 trading days without a daily loss of 1% or greater. The current streak began on October 12, 2016. Going back to 1950 there have been 23 previous daily streaks of 70 or more trading days in which S&P 500 did not experience a 1% or greater daily loss. The longest streak was 184 trading days in 1963. The average gain during the past 23 streaks was 10.68%. Like those past streaks the current streak will also eventually come to an end. It could be today, like the 70 trading-day streak in 1952 or it could be months from now like the streaks that occurred in 1953, 1960, 1963, 1965, 1985, 1994 and 1995. When the streak does end, it tends to mark the end of a low volatility period and the start of some choppy trading. In the above chart, showing the average performance of the previous 23 streaks 30 trading days before they end and 60 trading days after, choppy performance after the streak ends is visible. After the initial drop, S&P 500 rebounds, but fails to reclaim its previous high during the next 60 trading days. On average each month has 21 trading days. Further beyond this point, S&P 500 was higher 78.3% six months after the streak ended. Click here to view table full size…
Snap Out of It! Individual Investors Still Not Feeling the Love Whether you want to call it skepticism, self-control, or downright stubbornness, the fact that bullish sentiment has been so restrained even as US equities continue to trade to record highs is amazing. In this week’s survey from AAII, bullish sentiment on the part of individual investors dropped from 37.01% down to 31.58%, marking the second straight week where bullish sentiment has declined by five percentage points or more. That hasn’t happened since May. This week’s survey also marked the 108th straight week where bullish sentiment was below 50%. , Bearish sentiment didn’t see much of an increase this week, rising from 32.68% up to 33.49%. The key here, though, is that bearish sentiment now exceeds bullish sentiment for the first time since the election. The DJIA may be at 20K, but individual investors want no part of it. VIX at Two and a Half Year Lows Remember back in the early days of the bull market when a VIX reading below 20 was considered low? Well, for the first time in over two and a half years, the VIX volatility index closed below 11 today. In the history of the VIX going back to 1990, there have only been 70 prior days where the VIX closed below 11. In addition to today’s low reading, we also found it noteworthy that since Donald Trump won the election, the VIX hasn’t closed above 15, which is a streak that’s now at 52 trading days and counting. Who would have ever thought that would be the case? Since 1990, there have been ten prior periods where the VIX closed below 15 for 50 or more consecutive trading days, and in today’s Chart of the Day sent to Bespoke subscribers, we looked at each prior period where the VIX went 50 or more trading days without closing above 15, and then calculated the S&P 500’s forward returns over the following one, three, six, and twelve months. See today’s Chart of the Day by starting a 14-day free trial to Bespoke’s premium research below. Dow 20,000 – Finally After at least a month of flirting with 20,000, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finally broke through the level that everyone…OK, just some people…has been watching for the last several weeks. In honor of crossing the 20,000 threshold, the table below lists the date that the DJIA first crossed each thousand point threshold (on a closing basis) going back to 1,000 back in 1972. We also show how many days elapsed between the first time the index crossed each level, the number of times it crossed that threshold to the upside and downside, and what percentage each successive 1,000 points represents as a percentage of the index’s level. Looking at the table, a couple of things stand out. First, the 64 days that elapsed between the first cross of 19,000 and 20,000 would represent the second shortest amount of time that transpired between two thousand point levels. The only one that was shorter was the 35 days that elapsed between 10,000 and 11,000. The 64-day sprint between 19,000 and 20,000 may sound impressive, but when you consider the fact that 1,000 points only represents 5% at 20,000 compared to 10% at 10,000, it loses a bit of its luster. Another aspect of the current rally worth citing is that after first crossing 19K back in November, the DJIA has yet to look back and trade below that level. The only other 1,000 point level that the DJIA crossed to the upside and never looked back from was 5,000 back in November 1995. While 5K and 19K are levels the DJIA has yet to ever revisit, DJIA 10,000 and 11,000 were levels that the index just couldn’t shake off. The DJIA first crossed 10K in 1999, but over the years following that first cross, it moved above and below that level 66 times. 11K was even harder to shake off. Since first crossing that threshold in May 1999, the index has moved above and below that level on a closing basis 86 other times. The Smoothest Transition Ever Jan 23, 2017 By most accounts, the first weekend of the Trump Administration wasn’t good. Characterized as rocky, erratic, terrible, and full of false claims, the ‘not ready for prime time’ transition team is now the ‘not ready for prime-time administration.’ However you want to characterize it, there were certainly some missteps in the Trump administration’s transition from the election to the Inauguration as well as during its first weekend. There will also no doubt be additional missteps along the way over the next four (or eight) years. That said, a lot of this is to be expected. Anytime you have a complete changeover in Washington (even right down to the drapes in the Oval Office), there are going to be issues that come up. By at least one measure, though, the Trump Administration’s transition has been pretty smooth. The table below was from this week’s Bespoke Report newsletter and shows how the DJIA performed from Election Day through Inauguration Day for each newly elected President since 1896. Along with the DJIA’s performance during each transition, we also show the maximum percentage decline the index saw from a closing high during each period. With a gain of 7.62% during Trump’s transition, the DJIA had its second best transition performance since 1896. More importantly, with a maximum decline of 1.2% from a closing high, no other newly elected President has ever seen a less volatile transition period! Call it whatever you want, but from the stock market’s perspective at least, the Trump transition was the smoothest ever.
Who Was The Best President For Stock Returns? Posted by lplresearch President Trump was inaugurated as the 45th President of the United States on Friday, while President Obama went back to being a regular citizen. This brings up the question of how stocks did under President Obama, and who was the best president for stock returns? Turns out, the Dow gained a very impressive 150% during the eight years President Obama was in office. This ranks as the fourth best out of the 19 presidents since 1900. Here is the breakdown of all the presidents and Dow returns since 1900. Note: Red signifies a Republican and blue signifies Democrat. According to Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist, “The eight years under President Obama saw the Dow gain 150%, which was one of the best returns ever. Of course, it also came on the heels of the 25% drop during President Bush’s eight years due to the financial crisis – only an 80% plus drop during the Great Depression under President Hoover was worse.” Here are some other interesting stats from the presidential returns: The best return ever was during the Roaring ‘20s and President Calvin Coolidge. The Dow gained an incredible 255% in just under six years. The worst return ever followed the Roaring ‘20s, as the Dow crashed nearly 83% under President Herbert Hoover. Not too surprisingly, Hoover was only a one-term president. The shortest time in office was President Warren G. Harding, who died after about two-and-a-half years, just as the Roaring ‘20s were starting. The shortest time in office ever was President Harrison, who died exactly one month after taking office. Some attribute his death to his two hour inaugural address delivered without a coat or hat on a cold, wet day. The longest time in office was Franklin D. Roosevelt (FDR), who remained president just over 12 years. Take note that means he won the election four consecutive times. In fact, he was the only president to be in office more than two terms. In February 1951, with the passing of the 22ndamendment, presidents were limited to two terms in office. Each of the past three presidents have made it the full two terms, or eight years. There has never been four straight two-term presidents. Jefferson/Madison/Monroe all made it eight years, but John Quincy Adams ended the streak and was out of office after four years in 1829. Welcome to Dow 20k Posted by lplresearch Yesterday was the day: the Dow finally closed above 20,000 for the first time in history. It has been flirting with this level since December 13, 2016, when it first closed less than 100 points away from 20,000. Since then, it hasn’t been able to break through, but it hasn’t sold off either. As we noted on the blog last week, the Dow has actually been in the tightest monthly range in its history recently. Now that it has broken out, what could happen next? First, let’s take a closer look at big milestone levels (or…let’s break down big milestone levels): The Dow first closed above 100 in January 1906, but it traded consistently beneath this level until 1924 and the 1920’s bull market. After the stock market crash of the Great Depression, the Dow last traded beneath 100 on May 26, 1942—some 36 years from the first time it closed above this level. The Dow first hit the 1,000 level on an intraday basis on January 18, 1966. It didn’t officially close above this level until November 14, 1972—nearly seven years later. It didn’t really break out above 1,000 for another 10 years in late 1982. The Dow first closed above 10,000 in early 1999. After two massive bear markets, the last time it closed beneath the 10,000 level was another 11 years later in summer 2010. All three milestones took place with extended valuations and after strong bull markets, which could help explain why longer-term underperformance occurred. The Dow closed above 19,000 for the first time ever on November 22, 2016, and it only took 42 more days to close above 20,000. This checks in as the second-fastest 1,000 point move ever, with the 24 days needed to go from 10,000 to 11,000 in 1999 the fastest. That move came out to an annualized return of 172%. The longest time between milestones was the move from 1,000 to 2,000, which took over 14 years from late 1972 to early 1987. Of course, a move from 1,000 to 2,000 should take longer, as it is a larger percentage move. Regarding the lowest annualized return, the move from 14,000 to 15,000 took nearly six years, and it came out to an annualized return of 1.2%. The recent 1,000 point move checked in at a healthy annualized return of 36.0%. Take another look at the table above. What stands out is the move from 18,000 to 19,000 was very slow, as it took nearly two years. Looking at other periods of slow moves, a new 1,000 level led to solid returns soon after. This played out once again. What has happened after one of the milestone levels cleared? The 4.7% jump the month after 19,000 was one of the best one-month rallies ever, but recent milestones had been weak, as four of the previous five times the Dow was lower a month later. The median return three months later has been slightly weaker than the average return, but longer-term things got back to normal. In fact, the returns a year later have been better than the average yearly return—likely because most of these milestones took place during bull markets. Per Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist, “These major milestone levels are a nice reminder that the Dow is at a new high. That always gets investors’ attention and likely a closer look at how their portfolios are positioned, but these levels aren’t magical. In the end, valuations, technicals, and fundamentals—not a big round number—are what continue to drive equity prices.”
Here are where the major indices stand since the Nov. 8th Presidential Election and Inauguration Day as of market close 1/27/17-
Stock Market Analysis for Week Ending 1.27.17 Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon ShadowTrader Video Weekly 1.29.17 - Context is King! How to Interpret Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
These "which president was better" stats are very important these days. Fake news, ultimately, but very important. Like how many people were at the inauguration sorta thing. It gets people elected. This is why Trump will have worse numbers than Bush. It's important that numbers like this are kept alive and shouted from the rooftops in 2020. Look! Do you want Clinton and Obama stock markets?! Or do you want Bush and Trump stock markets?! Choose people! That'll be the message. Remember. It's the economy stupid. In 2020 you'll have a host of sad people on TV saying, "I voted for Trump, I gave him a chance. And now look at us. I haven't eaten in weeks! Mwaaaaaah!" Etc. Plan wisely.
Here are the most anticipated ERs for this upcoming week ahead (I'll also have the earnings chart posted in here as well once it's ready) ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time*** Monday 1.30.17 Before Market Open: Spoiler: (CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS RELEASES!) Monday 1.30.17 After Market Close: Spoiler: (CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS RELEASES!) Tuesday 1.31.17 Before Market Open: Spoiler: (CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS RELEASES!) Tuesday 1.31.17 After Market Close: Spoiler: (CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS RELEASES!) Wednesday 2.1.17 Before Market Open: Spoiler: (CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS RELEASES!) Wednesday 2.1.17 After Market Close: Spoiler: (CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS RELEASES!) Thursday 2.2.17 Before Market Open: Spoiler: (CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS RELEASES!) Thursday 2.2.17 After Market Close: Spoiler: (CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS RELEASES!) Friday 2.3.17 Before Market Open: Spoiler: (CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS RELEASES!) Friday 2.3.17 After Market Close: NONE.
Stockaholics come join us in our weekly market poll and vote where you think the markets will end this upcoming week ahead!- Weekly SPX Poll - Sentiment (1/30-2/3) <-- click there to cast your vote for this week! In addition we have our weekly stock picking challenge now up and running as well!- Stockaholics Weekly Stock Picking Contest for the Week of (1/30-2/3) <-- click there to post your picks for this week! We also now have a daily stock picking & market direction guessing challenge running here!- Stockaholics Daily Stock Pick Challenge & SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (1/30) <-- click there to cast your vote & post your pick for Monday! Lastly, we have the monthly market poll & monthly stock picking challenge threads now open as well!- First the monthly market sentiment poll for February- Monthly SPX Poll - February 2017 Sentiment <-- click there to cast your vote for February! And here is the monthly stock picking challenge for February- Stockaholics February 2017 Stock Picking Contest <-- click there to post your picks for February! It would be pretty awesome to see some of you join us and participate on these. Hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!
As promised here are EW's most anticipated ERs due out for this upcoming week ahead: ($AMZN $AAPL $FB $AMD $S $XOM $MA $PFE $X $UPS $UAA $GPRO $V $NOK $CMG $EPD $OCLR $EA $VLO $COH $BAH $HOG) And in my quote below are all of those ERs with the date/time and estimates-
Thanks Cy! Good luck to the drug stocks on guidance considering the upcoming Trump polices. AAPL and FB could be market drivers on a good beat at least for the tech stocks. The most anticipated ER on this board will be AMD. This will be a maker or breaker for many of our members. I also will have an eye on S.
Again, I'm sorry for the amateur photo editing / splicing job -- but instead of bombarding the thread with 3x charts on top of each other, I'm trying to save space & allow for a little easier side-by-side comparison. Anyway... Looking at the RUT from a further out perspective today, this is the 5-year Weekly chart. Starting a the left, while the RUT moves generally sideways in it's Chop Zone, the MACD Histogram is decelerating rapidly. I wouldn't call it a divergence per say, since the RUT, too, is in a downward trend, but the severity of the down trend is noticeably different-- especially given this past week's green candle stretching the entire range of the channel. What is also interesting is how the Linear Regression Curve has acted as resistance ever since the RUT broke below following ATHs. This past week we saw our first real attempt to get a Weekly close above the LRC -- but no -- fail. The same is seen on the middle chart -- this showing the Standard Error Bands. 2x weeks under the regression line, with this week challenging, but failing. Interesting to note here, since ATHs, the RUT has been moving from the upper band sideways towards the lower band, which seems to be rising to meet it. Obviously it won't continue to rise, continued chop should result in the lower band flattening out -- will that cause the RUT to dip to meet it? In a more bullish environment, I would've thought the LRC here would be acting as support -- but no -- this week we saw, for the first time since ATHs, the LRC act as resistance. Finally, the third chart, showing TPO Profile. I'm relatively new to TPO -- so I'd appreciate someone else's input here in what they see. Clearly, the TPO shows the most opportunity within the previous sideways channel @ 1150s. What I am wondering is, does the low TPO area signify a possible area of support? The early 2016 pivot low doesn't line up exactly with the other low TPO area, the pivot occurred before the RUT got to that low TPO area -- so will the 1300 area act as support in a similar way -- something before 1300 perhaps? It's clear to see where the TPO Profile is building...a rather fat pattern as the RUT trade sideways in such a tight range. Might that 1300 area act as support, keeping the RUT within the now-building range it's in? Overall, I remain patiently neutral on the RUT. This past, to me, is just noise. I am still waiting for a close below the 50 DMA or a confirmed moe above the ATHs before I take a more positioned stance. I can't help but think the Bears are building a stronger case, though. But the RUT certainly could be consolidating, as a lot of people are saying. Perhaps this sideways trend will continue until we see the 50 DMA break through the sideways channel the RUT's been stuck in since early December? I guess we'll see...
Starting Wed after work I'll be traveling to California and gone all next week. That probably won't stop me from being here or from trading, but who knows. Maybe I'll actually take a short break. I doubt it though.
Good morning Stockaholics! Happy Monday. Hope y'all had a nice relaxing weekend in here. Here are your pre-market stock movers & news on this Monday morning- 1/30 Monday Market Movers & News: C, TPX, DIS, AXP, LOW, DAL, TM, SBUX, ANTM, SNE, CSX, FIT, FCAU <-- Click there to open! Hope everyone has an awesome trading day in here today!
$CARA Shorts are worried now because they have to cover this week. Let them cover higher. Soon there won't be any shares left.
