Now I have mixed feelings. If it's higher 2 thirds of the time and has been higher for the last four consecutive years, we are due for lower.
Haha that's not how it works. If the last spin on a roulette wheel was black, and you want to bet on the next, it's still 50-50 for whether or not the next spin is red or black. If the odds are 2 out of 3 positive years, that still means that tomorrow is 2/3rd chance of being up. Of course this is in the middle of a huge bull run, and there's a big economic event tonight, so who knows what will happen.
I used to think that too. Then the wheel hit double zero green and I cried. Green! Nobody told me there would be a green! But, I get your point. If you flip a coin it's 50/50 heads or tails. And you can get 7 heads in a row. But, if you've got 30 kids in a class and 2/3rds are white, and 4 kids enter the class who are all white, you've just increased the odds the next kid won't be white. Because it's a finite pool. Same with cards. This is why card counting works. So, the question becomes, is there a reason the markets go up on the first 2 thirds of the time, or is it completely random? Is it a classroom full of kids, or a flip of a coin?
Here is just a quick update to the chart I posted yesterday- We did it! The SPX is now 50 trading days w/o a 1% intraday full range ... smashing the previous streak
Yields have really gone up after he comments by William Dudley from the FED, I wonder if the odds for the March rate hike are getting close to 50% now
Crap! I totally missed it!!! Hit my trend line perfectly. Gosh darn family!! I fully expected this would happen. Hoped it would. Went away from my computer for 30 minutes and it happens. Gosh darn it!!
Maybe some more opportunities for you tonight We could have some wild movement for the futures tonight while Trump is talking
I bought some GLD 112 May monthly puts near the close today at 0.75. I expect this rally to be over and a correction to unfold over the coming months.
whelp, we have yet another ath made in the extended trading hours session ... you guys know what that means right haha. Spoiler: (Click to Show!)
Good Monday morning Stockaholics! Happy first trading day of March! Here are your pre-market stock movers & market news on this Wednesday morning- 3/1 Wednesday Market Movers & News: LOW, BBY, MU, CRM, INTC, ETSY, AMBA, PANW, WTW, GOOGL, HSY, LVS <-- Click there to open! Happy trading day to all of you in here today. Hope y'all make some good $$$ this month!!
