Stock Market Today: March 20th - 24th

And what is the likelihood of getting passed tomorrow ?

 

You think if they don't pass it tomorrow the market will have a huge sell off ?

 

For now it seems they have a good chance to pass it

If the don't pass the healthcare bill tomorrow, then the market probably would think they won't get to tax cut anytime soon and cause some selling on Friday. Just my opinion though, I could be totally wrong

 

What time is the vote ?

 

Dont know the exact time, probably on the evening and not during the regular trading hours

 

Does anyone else think if this bill fails to pass the trump bump could disappear immediately? Would buying cheap SPY puts and calls, expiring March 24, tomorrow morning and expecting a huge swing either way be a good play?

 

I don't think there'll be a huge selloff. The Elliott wave guy that I'm going by (there are several ), makes me think we don't go much lower than 2335 and then we'll get a bounce up ~2430, and then a quick selloff.

Now, Elliott waves might not be acceptable for such a decision. So... Technically, we're already on the bottom Bollinger band, and the 50 sma is right below. So I'm not seeing a huge selloff. Not with the 10 and 20 smas above the 50 sma. But once the 20 and 50 mas converge, that'll be a danger time.

And lastly (and definitely least to me), maybe we can say the tax reform delay was already priced in by yesterday's move.

 

With all due respect I don't think the technical indicators are going count for very much tomorrow.

-Trump can expect much less GOP resistance with his tax reform plans than this healthcare bill. So if the bill passes the market will probably rally to where it was last week.
-Trump has been spouting threats all week to any GOP member who would vote against him on thursday. If he lost the vote there would be concerns over him having alienated those members, and not being able to count on them in the future, and in general not being able to deliver on his promises (tax reform, Dodd-Frank repeal...) Considering these promises have been the trump bumps primary fuel, having them come into question could certainly pull the market down much more than 1%. The Trump bump giveth and the Trump can taketh.
-Now having said all that Trump hasn't seemed to be in any rush to repeal ACA since election, and he doesn't seem to have the votes tomorrow, so I think the most likely outcome is that the vote gets delayed.

Again you seem to have a much firmer grasp on the market than me so I definitely respect your opinion, but I have to disagree. I studied medicine so a lot of the markets going-ons can fly right over my head. But I have been playing the market for a year now, and fundamental DD seems to usually pay off.

 

Ok I expect the Trump Bump to be taken away, but not in the next week. More like 2 months.

A serious drop (like Oct 2014, Aug 2015, Jan 2016) is very unlikely right now. We won't just crash from the top.

 

The market will do whatever the market does.

Just sell fear and you'll be fine.

 

So in the short term for the ES, on a $15-box by 1-box-reversal, I'm seeing cause for a potential fall to 2310 or if this dip turns out to be a spring (a small shakeout) then a rise to 2430 to 2445. Longer term, on a $15-box by 3-box-reversal there is cause for a move higher to 3210 to 3750. (3210 is conservative). Bully.

EDIT: Correction to formula on chart for price objective to 2310 should read: 2385 - (5 x 15 x 1) = 2310

 

I'm not expecting such a sudden crash any time soon. I think more than likely in the next couple of weeks the sp500 is going to dip 3-5% in a day then close down 1%. We'll then see a steady depreciation till May, when everyone is saying we should wait to sell, only to find out its too late to keep any of the gains.

Or Trump surprises us and delivers on all his promises

 

Any update on the house vote ?

 

There are some rumors that the vote will be delayed till tomorrow (Friday) or next week, there is no official news though so for now we should still assume they will vote tonight

 

BREAKING: Speaker Ryan's news conference delayed until further notice as talks on Obamacare repeal plan continue

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