Ahhhh.... So the drop is charted too.... Not just where it landed Ok... I have enough to process for now.... We can get back to CHK
On a weekly chart, the accumulated volume in this last down-wave has the highest down-volume in this trading range. So although shorter term looks like a bounce could happen, probably off the $5 round-number, longer term I would not be surprised to see a dip under the Preliminary Support (PS) line at $3.56. However, if a bounce happens and it has strength then we'd have to conclude the Last Point of Support (LPS) was printed. But, I would not expect that until the TR gets closer to the long-term stride line. Phase B is a difficult phase to trade and should probably be avoided as it is erratic...a trading range is the CM's house and he has enough capital to screw with everybody. Ideally the buy is in Phase C when it becomes clear that the CM is done accumulating. Next to the ideal, is to buy after a sign of strength, SOS, a large green bar with volume, which is the CM buying his last traunch, the lesser of the CM-class pecking order joining in, and the public beginning to come in. In phase B, the CM is trying to scare shares away from the public, that is, if he is accumulating...that has not been proven yet...but likely I'd say. Weekly Sticks:
$3.56 is pretty scary! I like this $5 bounce idea much better! I did your math on the bottom side and came up with a target of $7.75 on a one box reversal..... Cause my glass is half full Also figured out how to let stockcharts do the math for me.. On a 3 box, it shows a break out to $13.50 Although, their counting method is different than yours... It counts up and down instead of side to side
Yep, I mentioned that about Stockcharts.com earlier. I haven't found that method to be useful or reliable. The Wyckoff way is easier I think, but it takes a human to do it; it can't be easily programmed into a can. Nevertheless, CHK will likely go quite high after it builds more cause. It is just a question of how long you are willing to have your capital tied up and how much pain you can endure. Just don't be surprised or chicken out if it retests the selling climax at $1.50. But it will bounce around, as I said Phase B is difficult to navigate.
It's only -10% from there If it really goes down to $1.50, then you could turn the gun around before pulling the trigger again.
I think the storm is over and the sun lurks just behind the next cloud.... And here's why 2/23.... Almost 100 million shares traded!!!... That's a lot of red, but it could almost be green with all the buyers pushing back to $5.75 3/8... Over 65 million shares pushing price down to $4.92, about a buck n a half above the 52 week low.... This should be the selling climax, not the drop on 2/23 3/22... After running up to $5.50, we find our first test back under $5... But with steady volume, which doubled the next day.... So I think we'll be testing under $5 again Next should be a reaction/short rally... I think we'll pass $5.50 and find the top of the range around $5.75 (the close from 2/23)... As this seems to be a significant value, so says the market There is our accumulation range.. $4.90-$5.75........ So when you see the spring below $4.90, get your popcorn in the microwave! Speaking of accumulation, here's some stats on insider trading.... Most recent were two separate purchases this month totaling 70,000 shares... But going back 12 months we have net buying of 2.3 million.......... Can you smell that popcorn yet??
Nice chart and you laid out a good case, and it did fail to print a lower low on 3/22, but I'm not smelling the popcorn yet. Although the failure to print a lower low appears to be a change of character and that a trading range is likely setting up, the trend is down, and until there is a sign of strength, weakness is still in the background, and I must assume it will break lower. However, the 0.25x3 PnF limits the downside to $4.25. It has already printed 4.88. If 4.25 is to be achieved then the 0.25x1 PnF tells us that it is about ready to move there. I'm seeing similar counts and waiting patiently on other energy stocks too. Edit: You did say you are expecting a spring under 4.90 but a dip to 4.25 may be a bit too low for a "spring", but then again the 4.25 target is just an estimate. So, it could very well happen the way you say. 0.25x3 Point & Figure: 0.25x1 Point & Figure:
P/F charts still hurt my head... But they look to be pretty accurate on the down side.... Question, since this little range is still an infant baby, there's not enough cause to justify an upside count at this point right??..... And if not, when/where would you start counting? Yea, the popcorn is still in the bag... We're just watching the trailers now, waiting for the feature presentation..... But I think this range could be an opportunity to trade down my average.... I'm half out now, got impatient and found a better slot to put my money in... Looks like it was a good move, cause I think I still have plenty of time to get my other half back in here
You can start counting back from any new column of Xs, but right now on the $0.25-box by 1-box-reversal P&F, there's only enough cause built for an upside effect to $5.75. In the longer time frame that would not be considered a markup; more of an upthrust (opposite of a spring) which would likely fall back into the trading range....because there wasn't enough cause built....or in other words, because the Composite Man has not accumulated enough to sustain a larger move.
$CHK Close above SMA20, next SMA50 & SMA200. This is moving, at least! Bullish posted by framus_morrigan on stocktwits.com
Broke the $5.75 threshold Win win for me... If it tests again, I'll add to my position.... If it runs, I'll hold what I got.... Nice spot to be in
If you are referring to the 5.75 upside target from the 0.25x1 P&F, that is a short-term estimate; a price projection based on the cause built, and not really a threshold. I would call 6.08 to 6.37 a "threshold" though. The longer term 0.25x3 P&F still has a downside target of 4.25 that hasn't been met yet. So I'm skeptical of this move; it could just be an upthrust. I don't think it has built enough cause to sustain the rally. We'll see if it can follow-thru.
$5.75 looked to be the fair market value on 2/23, the biggest volume day of this whole down period... Since it was also the short term p/f objective, I put that number in my mind as a significant spot.... Threshold wasn't the best term, guess it's more of a target... At $5.81, it's not far off....... So, we could expect to see some red today, unless I got it all wrong
