Welcome to the trading week of May the 2nd! Here is what the major components of the S&P did last week: Monday morning we have earnings from $BSFT $SYY $DO $L $NSP $HP $INCR $STRL $EDR $BWP $CEVA $FELE $HAE The economic calendar for next week looks like so: This is what could bring back the turbulence Patti Domm | @pattidomm When traders talk about the "sell in May, go away" phenomenon, they are actually talking about the six months from May to October when the market's performance on average lags the other six months. Over the past 50 years, the S&P 500 has averaged a smallish 0.9 percent gain in the period versus the 6.3 percent average gain of November through April, according to Bespoke. As for May itself, the Dow has been virtually flat, up 0.1 percent on average over the past 100 years, and even flatter, up just an average 0.05 percent, over the past 20 years. The challenges for the period this year include potential Fed rate hikes, the softish economy and the added intrigue of political risk — both from the U.S. presidential election and the U.K. referendum vote on whether to remain in the European union. As for the coming week, stocks face the April employment report on Friday, earnings reports from about a fifth of the S&P 500 companies and speeches from at least a half dozen Fed officials. http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/29/this-is-what-could-bring-back-the-turbulence.html LETS DO IT!!!!
Earnings for the week: Eyes on the big boys, AAPL is down to the support that I drew in many weeks ago, we could see a bounce early this week, but Im really interested in seeing a visit to the $80's
Then we have AMZN which is absolutely killing it! Look at that sucker fly! Closing +10% after its earnings
On my "I better keep an eye on this" list is IBB which was the strongest sector for a long time, now its one of the weakest. If the markets are really going to be going higher, there is always an inevitable dash-for-trash. The IBB could be the trash, so if IBB goes up, that is very bullish for the market. If IBB breaks down further, I would say risk appetite is not really there and this market is skating on this ice if people are not interested in taking on risk.
Keeping with the dash for trash theme, small caps are important to watch! The IWM is bouncing around the resistance levels drawn in a long time ago. Like IBB, if small caps are not getting any kind of attention from bulls, then I would start getting extra cautious on broader market rallies. Its completely possible that we get a very thin market pushing higher (no broad based rally), which is completely ok, but thin rallies tend to be volatile because the you become completely dependent on the leading stocks to keep leading.
A couple macro-cycle charts this AM. Unemployment at near historical lows per "claims". The chart shows that politicians cannot be depended on to keep claims low for any length of time, and the cycle is every 10 years (approx.). The actual recessions match the chart fairly well (blue lines). The cross over could be an indicator. If we consider the population growth of the USA over this same timeframe plotted, the claims adjusted to population are at historical lows. How sustainable is that? Could indicate a macro bear lasting years. In past recessions the Fed and other world governments had more tools to leverage to boost the economy. At this point we only have additional debt, which would be piled on the existing uber-debt the world economy is already trying to absorb.
This looks like its gonna be a fun week for bears. Looks like volatility and volume increase the last two trading days, further upside seems unlikely. Let's get this bear market started!
Another interesting chart on XJY showing a decent indicator, not perfect. I went long miners in Jan and have had amazing gains so far (although by saying that I probably just jinxed it lol). This LT chart shows the latest move in the Yen is projecting continuation of gold prices going higher. Commodities should be getting a good run if the USD weakens and the Yen keeps climbing.
Really looking at next week to tell us exactly where we are. Volatile action with wild intraday moves have been the norm for the last 2 weeks. A hold of this weeks low is critical for the bulls to regain traction. Tonight's open should give us a little sign of things to come. Again remain flexible and look at the levels we post in the morning. Always have some price level that makes you either sit on your hands or reconsider your current bias. Watch price and have patience...in markets like this it is fine to be slightly late vs the first out the foxxhole.
A 20 dollar move is a hefty one and last thing we need is to think that it is going to $60 dollars overnight. Lets stop snorting like a pig because they get slaughtered and lock in some gains. This can be done by rolling stops or trimming some of the position. We are looking for this uptrend line to hold on pullbacks. However with a clean break with some significant volume we have to re-evaluate. Always stay prepared for both sides of the coin. Levels for Crude will be posted in the morning..
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us...ers-germany-over-economic-policies-2016-04-29 Spoiler: just some speculation for fun So that's why the Fed stopped raising rates, because we were getting ready to lower them. The Green War has begun. Green because that's the color of money in the US. I don't care what colors the Euro/Yen are. We're America, it's the Green War...ok let me think about this.
