AMZN - Amazon.com Inc

Discussion in 'Stock Message Boards NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX' started by Stockaholic, Mar 31, 2016.

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  1. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    I ordered a harddrive last night, it says deliver is today?

    1 day shipping on a weekend?

    Good lord AMZN! Stop being so awesome!
     
  2. Timbo

    Timbo Active Member

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    They are hard to beat, one of the fulfillment centers is in Lebanon Tn. The place is huge, we hauled gravel to them for months during the construction phase several years ago. Whoda thunk they would become the beast they are today.
     
  3. Clair

    Clair Active Member

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  4. tbw875

    tbw875 Active Member

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    @Clair it even looks like HAL!
     
  5. Timbo

    Timbo Active Member

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    Holy cow, will it ever take a break.
     
  6. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Amazon Celebrates 20 Years
    May 15, 2017

    As you may have already seen, Amazon.com (AMZN) marked the 20th anniversary of its IPO today, and what a ride it has been. We’ve all seen the stats, but put simply, from its split-adjusted closing price of $1.958 on 5/15/1997, AMZN has rallied more than 48,800%. Yes, you read that correctly, 48,800%! In other words, a mere $100 invested in AMZN after its first day of trading would now be worth just under $49,000 today!

    [​IMG]

    In retrospect, just buying and holding AMZN twenty years ago was a no-brainer, but for the twenty years that it has been trading, the hardest thing for most investors was probably not to sell. The chart below shows historical drawdowns from all-time highs for AMZN going back over the last 20 years. As you can see, the ride up for AMZN has been anything but smooth. While it may seem like AMZN does nothing but go up these days, it’s had plenty of rough patches. In fact, for a seven-year stretch from the Spring of 2000 to the Spring of 2007, AMZN was consistently more than 50% below its prior all-time high, and at one point it was down 95%. When you look back at the entirety of its life as a public company, AMZN has actually been at least 50% below its all-time high more than 36% of the time!

    Even as recently as last March, the stock was down over 30% from an all-time high in what was the eighth such 30% drawdown (red line) since it came public. Based on today’s price, that would be equivalent to a decline of $289/share. These kinds of drawdowns look easy in retrospect, but they’re extremely hard to stomach in real time. A lot of investors in AMZN now would have a hard time swallowing a decline of that magnitude today. Would you?

    [​IMG]
     
  7. tbw875

    tbw875 Active Member

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    Geekwire did a story on that, Cy. If you invested $1000 at the ipo, you would have something like $634,000. Not too bad
     
  8. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Yeah, I think it is close.
    upload_2017-5-15_19-26-33.png
     
  9. tbw875

    tbw875 Active Member

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    @Onepoint272 does that calculation (890+(2*10*3)) mean its currently overvalued at 960, and should be at 950?
     
  10. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Over-valued, over-bought, yeah I suppose you could say that. I prefer to think of it as running out of "cause"....as in "cause and effect". The smart money buys in a trading range (builds cause) then allows the public to mark it up (effect). The amount of the "cause" represents the smart-money commitment which in turn determines the effect. So yeah it has over run its estimated effect, but it appears to do that routinely....dang cult stock. My thinking is this little upthrust is distribution and will fail. The cause built during distribution (the number of ups and downs in the trading range) will determine the effect of the fall. Of course the trading range could be re-accumulation....sickening thought I know, but trend is up, and trend is everything. Supply will need to prove itself with a sign of weakness. Can you tell I dislike AMZN?

    upload_2017-5-15_21-4-55.png
     
    #190 Onepoint272, May 15, 2017
    Last edited: May 15, 2017
    tbw875 and T0rm3nted like this.
  11. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    I understand you're all about the smart money, the story behind the moves, etc. Do you never make exceptions? Amazon has got to be one of the most popular and powerful ways to shop these days. More and more people are staying home and waiting 1-2 days for their merchandise instead of taking 1 hour out of their day, using gas, and dealing with traffic.

    Haven't really dug into Amazon's stock price or anything in the last 6 months or so, but how one can say they "dislike AMZN" kind of baffles me. Unless you're just saying you're expecting a slight pull-back or something.
     
  12. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    It took me a long time to accept that AMZN had staying power in the beginning.

    It seemed impossible they would survive with such razor thin margins, but hey, looking at all the empty Amazon boxes in my office, I was wrong! :D
     
  13. Timbo

    Timbo Active Member

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    No doubt, it's the new EASY button, if/when it has a sharp pullback I'd be tempted to buy n hold.
     
  14. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Yes I think it is due for a pullback, perhaps as much as 10%. Then it should consolidate for at least a number of months and then we'll see if it will be re-accumulated or finally be distributed leading to a long over due major correction.

    But the reason I dislike it is that it has systematically been destroying traditional retail by investing all of its profits for more than 1/2 of its existence and nearly all of its profits for the rest, in enriching Bozos and building an empire that may ultimately prove to be less efficient. It did that partially by unfairly circumventing state and local sales taxes resulting in a near sales tax rate doubling on its traditional competition in many states and cities since their existence. It was able to convince its investors for a long time that it needed to keep re-investing profits back into this predatory business model and therefore show no earnings, all the while Bozos continued to sell his massive holdings reaping a fortune of historical proportion, and even now the stock trades at a trailing 12-month PE of about 180. If it was fairly valued at a PE of even 20, the price per share should be about $100.

    So there's that, and my own sour grapes for buying at $12 and selling at $20 back in 2002. :mad:
     
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  15. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    AMZN daily chart:
    upload_2017-5-20_8-22-44.png
     
  16. Timbo

    Timbo Active Member

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    Really enjoy your input ONEPOINT, have a great weekend.
     
  17. tbw875

    tbw875 Active Member

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  18. fidelgeorge

    fidelgeorge Well-Known Member

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    It's strong but I'm worried about that 970-971 area, not sure if we can break it anytime soon, may play the bounce drop game.
     
  19. blypelako

    blypelako Active Member

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    While I too appreciate the convenience of Amazon I cannot help but think how notorious Western individualism is turning into self-isolationism. Black mirror scenario right here.
     
  20. tbw875

    tbw875 Active Member

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    AmazonFresh now released to the public. There are two Seattle locations, and any Prime member can use it.
    https://www.geekwire.com/2017/amazo...-seattle-automatic-license-plate-recognition/
    https://www.geekwire.com/2017/tried-new-amazonfresh-pickup-service-seattle-happened/

    I will be using this in the very near future, so I'll actually take some pictures and let everyone know how it was. In my opinion, this is Amazon's first true venture into Brick & Mortar, following the slow release of AmazonGo.
     

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