Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of June 26th! This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: Major Indices End of Week: Bird's Eye view of the Major Futures Markets on Friday: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD: What to Watch in the Week Ahead: T.B.A.
Banks Battered, Biotechs Best As Yield Curve Crashes To 10-Year Lows Tech investors the last 2 days... Lots of chatter again this week about shrinking The Fed's balance sheet... it's gonna happen no matter what and it is looming... so The fed will be shrinking at $20-50bn a month going forward, will The ECB or BOJ step up and increase their buying to keep the ignorant dream alive? For now, it appears not - this week saw G-3 Central Bank Balance Sheets drop the most in 2017... Which perhaps explains why the dip-buyers were absent in the banks - the Big 4 Banks all suffered post-CCAR and all but JPM had a tough week... (Financials had their worst week in the last 10) On the week, investors panicced back into Tech stocks (Nasdaq's 3rd best week of the year)... Trannies ended the week red, Dow down 4 days in a row (to end the week unchanged), S&P managed to close green today to break its losing streak Driven by a collapse back to a 9 handle in VIX, S&P was pumped green for the day/week... (despite a small rise into the close, VIX remains below last Friday Quad-Witch close) Dow down 4 days in a row as they just could not rescue it all the way today... But we note that Nasdaq remains well below the FANG Crash levels... Healthcare (Biotechs) and Tech (FANGs) were the only sectors green this week as Energy lagged (and financials flondered)... Today saw a surge back into FANG stocks (retracing 75% of the Tech-Wreck drop) but the slightly broaders FANTASIA (FB, AMZN, NFLX, TSLA, GOOGL, CRM, INTL, AAPL) started to rol over after tagging the Fib 61.8% retracement of the tech wreck This was the biggest 2-day short squeeze in over 4 months... And "Growth" dramatically outperformed "Value" this week... Biotech stocks dropped very modestly today but spiked 9% on the week to 17 month highs - the best week since the election... As Biotechs ripped, bank stocks slipped on a collapsing yield curve and loss of hope after CCAR... 30Y Yields dropped notably this week - (to 2.70% - the lowest since Nov 9th) as the short-end rose modestly... The US Treasury yield curve slumps for the 6th straight week (longest streak since March 2016) to its lowest weekly close since 2007... The Dollar Index ended the week modestly higher but closed down for the last 3 days... Bitcoin rallied over 9% this week (the 9th weekly gain in the last 10)... Gold managed to eke out a small gain on the week, rallying for the last 3 days back above its 100- and 200-day moving averages... Gold and Silver danced around each other to end with the same small gains... Of course, the week was also headlined by the bloodbath in black gold... This is the 5th weekly drop in a row (the longest losing streak since Aug 2015); RBOB also fell for the 5th week in a row to lowest close since Nov 2016 A quiet week for macro data but both soft and hard data hit new cycle lows... NASDAQ rallied on fun-durr-mentals... Bonus Chart: Nothing bad happens anymore.. since BAML's Global Financial Stress Index has collapsed to 3-year lows... however, judging by China's leading credit impulse, things are about to get exciting...
Spoiler: Weekend Reading: Oil Slick Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Beginning in December of last year, following the announcement by OPEC of a cut in oil production, I have discussed the “headwinds” that persist against a sustained rise in oil prices. “The supply/demand dynamics currently suggest that oil prices and energy-related investments could find a long-term bottom within the next year or so following the next recession. However, it does not mean those investments will repeat the run witnessed prior to 2008 or 2014. Such is the hope of many investors currently as their ‘recency bias’ tends to overshadow the potential of the underlying fundamental dynamics.” After exiting the energy space in April 2014, there have been small tradeable opportunities within the energy sector but the trend remains sorely negative. The recent pounding of both oil prices, and the energy-related sector, continues to support the repeated warnings to remain clear of the space for now. “Energy continues to struggle after breaking its 50-dma and broke its 200-dma two weeks ago. While energy had a bit of a bounce last week, and tested resistance at the 50-dma, the bounce failed and the trend continues to materially weaken. Energy is very close to a major sector sell signal. Remain heavily underweight energy for the time being.” Since then energy stocks have continued to deteriorate and oil prices have now broken important support. The next major level of support for oil prices on a weekly basis is $42.50/bbl. A failure there leaves little support until $35/bbl. However, there is more to the price of oil than just weakness in the energy sector. Oil prices are also a reflexion of what is happening in the actual economy. The Fed should be paying closer attention to what is happening in oil prices. As shown below, the decline in oil prices suggests not only a real lack of inflationary pressures but are also a threat to the mild recovery in earnings in the last quarter. This weakness is also feeding back through the interest rate complex as well. As I stated yesterday: “While the Federal Reserve clearly should not raise rates further in the current environment, it is clear they will remain on their current path. This is because, I believe, the Fed understands that economic cycles do not last forever, and we are closer to the next recession than not. While raising rates will accelerate a potential recession and a significant market correction, from the Fed’s perspective it might be the ‘lesser of two evils. Being caught near the ‘zero bound’ at the onset of a recession leaves few options for the Federal Reserve to stabilize an economic decline. In other words, they already likely realize they are screwed.” There are ample data points suggesting the Fed has already “missed their window” for hiking rates. At this juncture, it is much more likely we will be talking about restarting QE in 2018 rather than how the “reduction of the balance sheet” is proceeding. Of course, such a conversation will most likely flow in conjunction with the onset of a “recessionary drag” in the economy and a decline in asset prices. However, for now, “hope” remains the emotion of choice. Here is what I am reading this weekend. Politics/Fed/Economy Woman On Fire by Danielle Dimartino-Booth via MoneyStrong Recession Closer Than You May Realize by James Rickards via Daily Reckoning The Great Big Coup by David Stockman via Daily Reckoning Demography Vs Economic Destiny by James Picerno via Capital Spectator Service Industries Need A Disruptor by Caroline Baum via MarketWatch Rising Wages Scare The Fed by Wolf Richter via Wolf Street Trump Is Causing Chaos In DC, Just Not The Market by Ben Casselman via FiveThrityEight A Clue To Their Thinking by Peter Boockvar via The Boock Report Chart Shows Traders Don’t Believe The Fed by Pedro Da Costa via BI Fed: Can They Get Back To Normal by Alex Pollock via Law and Liberty Details Of Senate Health Care Bill by Bob Bryan via BI Doctors & Patients Are Slamming Senates HealthCare Plan by Lydia Ramsey via BI I May Not Know, But Neither Does Yellen by Joe Calhoun via Alhambra Partners Infrastructure Won’t Create More Jobs by Jeff Harding via An Independent Mind Markets U.S. Oil Companies Face A Huge Problem by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com The Wisdom Of Crowds And Bond Markets by Edward Harrison via Credit Writedowns Can You See A Bubble If You’re In It? by Charles Hugh-Smith via Of Two Minds FAANG Is Now A Textbook Example Of Euphoria by John Mauldin via HVST.com 5-Predictions From Smart Investors by Annie Nova via Money Euphoria? The Stock Market Can Triple By 2026 by Raul Elizalde via Forbes Still Not Crazy After All These Years (FAANG) by Cliff Asness via AQR Capital Management Stocks Refuse To Die by Michael Kahn via Barron’s Stocks Don’t Become Less Risky by Mair Statman via MarketWatch 4-Things That Could Kill The Bull Marketby Howard Gold via MarketWatch David Rosenberg: Stock Market In Denial by Stephanie Landsman via CNBC Chart Porn by Akin Oyedele via BI Time For Investors To End Their Wishful Thinking by Stan Collender via Forbes Research / Interesting Reads Rediscovered Masterpiece By Ben Graham by Jason Zweig via Intelligent Investor 5-Reasons Amazon Bought Whole Foods by Lisa Eadicicco via Time Social Security Benefits To Lose 30% Of Buying Power by Staff via Senior Citizens League The Hoarding Of The American Dream by Annie Lowrey via The Atlantic 57 Million Americans Have No Emergency Savings by Jessica Dickler via CNBC NYC Mortgage Delinquencies Elevated, Again by Keith Jurow via KCS Blog Housing Bubble 2.0 – The End Is Nigh by Mark Hanson via MHanson.com The Car Was Repossessed, The Debt Remains by Jessica Silver-Greenberg via NYT DealBook Behold The Everything Bubble! by Jared Dillian via Maulding Economics Understanding The Productivity Puzzle by Howard Davies via Project Syndicate How To Wind Down A $4 Trillion Balance Sheet by John Hussman via Hussman Funds As Oil Drops by Dana Lyons via Tumblr Podcast: Tom McClellen On Effective Stock Market Models by Jesse Felder via The Felder Report “Buy In Haste. Repent At Leisure.” – Unknown
Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD thus far in 2017- S&P sectors for the past week-
Post-Election Year Julys Have Been Hot July may be the best performing month of the third quarter, but the mostly negative results in August and September make the comparison easy. Two “hot” Julys in 2009 and 2010 where DJIA and S&P 500 both gained greater than 6% and a strong performance in 2013 have boosted July’s average gains since 1950 to 1.2% and 1.0% respectively. Such strength inevitability stirs talk of a “summer rally”, but beware the hype, as it has historically been the weakest rally of all seasons (page 72, Stock Trader’s Almanac 2017). Post-election year Julys rank at or near the top of all post-election year months. DJIA and S&P 500: +2.2%, #1 (since 1953); NASDAQ (since 1973): +3.4% and Russell 2000 (since 1981): +3.1% #2. Delving deeper into this data reveled that many of these past “hot” Julys were preceded by a flat or down first half of the year so there is no guarantee that this July will live up to its historical post-election year record again this year. Christmas in July: Tech’s late-June to early July Rally NASDAQ delivers a short, powerful rally that starts at the end of June. The accompanying table shows NASDAQ averaging a 2.4% gain since 1985 during the 12-day period from June’s third to last trading day through July’s ninth trading day. This year the rally could begin around the close on June 27 and run until about July 17. In the mid-1980s the market began to evolve into a tech-driven market and control in summer shifted to the outlook for second quarter earnings of technology companies. This 12-day run has been up 24 of the past 32 years. After the bursting of the tech bubble in 2000, NASDAQ’s mid-year rally had a spotty track record from 2002 until 2009 with three appearances and five no-shows in those years. However, it has been quite solid over the last seven years, up six times with a single mild 0.1% loss in 2015. Last year, NASDAQ advanced a whopping 9.6% during the 12-day span. Tumbling crude a possible early warning sign Typically at this time of the year crude oil would still be enjoying a rally off of its February lows as the North American summer driving season lifts demand and pulls prices higher until sometime in early July (lower pane of above chart highlighted by blue arrows). This has not been the situation this year. Crude oil rallied off a November low to an early January peak just above $55 per barrel. It hung out around that level through early-March before entering its current downtrend. Crude’s losses really accelerated at the start of this month and it traded under $43 per barrel earlier today. Using the standard 20% decline from peak as the rule, crude oil is now in a bear market. In the above chart, crude oil’s continuously-linked, non-adjusted, front month futures contract daily price is plotted. It is an ugly chart at this moment, with a series of lower lows and lower highs. It has plunged through projected monthly support (horizontal green dashed line), its 50-day moving average (solid magenta line) has plunged below its 200-day moving average (solid red line) tracing out a bearish death cross and Stochastic, relative strength and MACD indicators are all negative. Crude has not yet broken below its November closing low (solid green line) but could do so any day. The next level of support would be last August’s closing lows right around $39.50 (solid black line). Crude oil supply is more than ample while demand, at least here in the U.S. appears to be flat at best to lower at worst. There are more alternative energy sources available today than any other time in the past and economies are becoming more efficient with crude’s use, but persistent price weakness could be a warning sign that the global economy is not as strong as it appears. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is also showing signs of growth cooling as it now predicts Q2 GDP at 2.9%, down from 3.2% on June 14 and 4.0% on June 1. Slipping Q2 growth expectations could lead to a similar effect on Q2 corporate earnings expectations which in turn could lead to a choppy market in Q3. January Indicator Trifecta Still Holds Sway Over Market – July will be Key Earlier this month, we presented a trio of 1-Year Seasonal Pattern charts with 2017year-to-date included for comparison. We did not forget that this year also hosted a positive January Indicator Trifecta. Historically, a positive January Trifecta has been exceptionally bullish with DJIA and S&P 500 averaging full-year gains right around 17% and only one sizable decline. No doubt 2017 has been a solid year, but it is still lagging behind past positive January Trifecta years. In the above charts this underperformance is clear especially in March, April and May. This month, S&P 500 has made up the most ground, but it and DJIA still have further to go to catch up. When looking at past Positive January Trifecta years that were also post-election years (purple line), July appears to be an important turning point where both DJIA and S&P 500 have rocketed higher (green arrow). Q2 earnings would likely have to absolutely blow away expectations to generate the approximate 5% move in the chart above. Any disappointment from earnings and/or further delays on tax reform could easily result in the market slipping into the pattern of “All Post-Election Years” and it’s sideways to lower pattern from July until late October (black arrow). Bespoke’s Asset Class Performance Matrix — 6/23/17 Jun 23, 2017 Each week we typically provide an update on asset class performance, and below is a look at how various areas of financial markets have performed recently. In the matrix below, we use ETFs traded on US exchanges to track performance, which we look at on a total return basis over the last week, quarter-to-date, and year-to-date. After hitting a rough patch in early June, the Tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) was the top performing US index ETF this week. Year-to-date, QQQ is up more (+19.6%) than any other US equity related ETF in our matrix. While QQQ was up 2.09% this week, we saw the S&P Midcap and Smallcap ETFs (IJH and IJR) pull back a bit. The S&P 500 (SPY) and Dow 30 (DIA) are finishing the week just slightly higher. While the broad market was marginally in the green this week, eight sectors actually declined while just two gained. Telecom (IYZ), Energy (XLE), and Financials (XLF) struggled the most, while Health Care (XLV) and Technology (XLK) are the two sectors that finished higher. Outside of the US, the Chinese equity market (ASHR) is the only area of the world that saw nice gains this week at +2.85% following the announcement that they will be included in the MSCI EM indices. Brazil (EWZ), Australia (EWA), Spain (EWP), and the UK (EWU) all saw declines of more than 1%. Energy commodities were deep in the red this week, and they’re deep in the red both QTD and YTD as well. In fixed income, the 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT) saw a nice gain of 1.01% this week and is now up 6.39% in Q2. The Most Extended Stocks in the Russell 1,000 Jun 23, 2017 The average stock in the Russell 1,000 is currently 0.80% above its 50-day moving average. That’s healthy because it’s in positive territory, but it’s far from an “overbought” number. As shown in the chart below, however, there’s quite a bit of deviation between sectors. The average Health Care stock is 6.24% above its 50-day (a very high number) while the average Energy stock is 9.31% below its 50-day (a very low number). For those interested, below is a list of the Russell 1,000 stocks currently trading the farthest above their 50-day moving averages. The list is littered with Technology and Biotech/Health Care stocks. Alnylam Pharma (ALNY) is the farthest above its 50-day at +29.57% (also up 121% YTD), followed by SunPower (SPWR) at 24.73%, and NVIDIA (NVDA) at 21.78%. Whole Foods (WFM) and Zillow rank 4th and 5th. Other notables on the list of most extended stocks include First Solar (FSLR), Tesla (TSLA), Square (SQ), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Oracle (ORCL), and Tableau Software (DATA). Check-Up on Bespoke’s “Trump Stock Portfolio” Jun 23, 2017 At the end of 2016 we put together a list of stocks that stood to benefit the most from the new “Trump Economy.” With the first half of the year coming to an end next week, our list of stocks is performing nearly exactly in-line with the S&P 500 on a year-to-date basis. We didn’t construct this list as a “Buy” portfolio, but rather as a way for clients to generate ideas based on which of Trump’s proposals they thought had the best chance of actually getting done. Of the stocks in the Trump Portfolio, it’s the Technology stocks that have done the best this year — AAPL, CHKP, GOOGL, TWTR, and V. Other big winners have been Tesla (TSLA), McDonald’s (MCD), Anthem (ANTM), Elbit Systems (ESLT), Cemex (CX), SQM de Chile (SQM), CyrusOne (CONE), and the Geo Group (GEO). Health Care stocks like HCA, Ligand (LGND), and Zoetis (ZTS) have all done well too. The biggest losers have been names like the Andersons (ANDE), Cal-Maine (CALM), Chesapeake (CHK), Diamondback (FANG), Endo (ENDP), Granite Construction (GVA), and Freeport (FCX). We’ll check back in to see how performance looks at the end of the third quarter in September. B.I.G. Tips – Trading Like It’s 1995 Jun 21, 2017 With the first half of 2017 nearly complete, investors really have gotten off easy in 2017. Inundated with headlines about scandals involving officials at all levels in Washington, stocks have seemingly done nothing but go up as the S&P 500 has 24 all-time closing highs since the year started. The worst sell-off the S&P 500 has seen from a closing basis this year was a 2.8% decline over 32 trading days from March 1st through April 13th. Maybe we’re getting old, but we can remember the days back in 2007 and 2008 when 2.8% declines were common in a single day. At one point over a 50-trading day period in 2008, the S&P 500 averaged an absolute daily change of 4.00%! 2017 has been so easy on the bulls, in fact, that there has only been one other year in the S&P 500’s history where it saw a smaller maximum drawdown in the first half fo the year. In a B.I.G. Tips report sent to our clients earlier today, we looked at prior years where the S&P 500 steadily rose in the first half of the year with little in the way of drawdowns along the way to see how equities performed in the second half. You’d be surprised at the results. S&P 500 New Closing All-Time Highs By Year Jun 20, 2017 Yesterday’s rally in US equities took the S&P 500 to yet another new all-time closing high, which was the 24th such all-time closing high in 2017. With the year not quite half over, if the pace of the first six months keeps up in the second half, the S&P 500 would be poised for 51 all-time closing highs this year. Obviously a lot can change in the second half, and even a moderate pullback could halt the accumulation of new highs. Conversely, there was a two-month period of consolidation already this year where there were no new highs for the market, so if we see a slow steady grind higher in the second half, the number of new highs could really start to pile up. The chart below shows the annual number of new all-time closing highs for the S&P 500 going back to 1929. Here, you can really see how a sharp pullback can really halt the frequency of new highs right in its track. After there were 45 new highs in 1929, it took 24 years until 1954 before the S&P 500 did it again. From that point on, the pace of new highs went in waves with many occurrences from the mid-1950s to mid-1960s and again in the 1980s and 1990s, while the pace slowed in the 1970s and 2000s. Since 2013 when the S&P 500 finally took out its pre-financial crisis highs, the pace has picked back up again. If the current pace of highs in the S&P 500 continues, and the S&P 500 closes at 50 or more all-time highs this year, it would rank in the top five of all years. In order to crack 1995’s all-time record of 77 for a single year, though, we would have to see one heck of a rally in the second half. Economic Data Surprisingly Negative Jun 19, 2017 US economic data has been coming in drastically below economists’ estimates of late. Last week we noted that the string of weak readings has been extra painful for housing, with a truly weak residential construction report and a slower than expected homebuilder confidence reading. It hasn’t been all bad news for US data of course; the Atlanta Fed is currently tracking 2.9% GDP in Q2, while the St. Louis Fed model sees 2.32% and the NY Fed is tracking 1.86%. With trend growth around 2%, none of those are terrible. Relative to estimates, however, the data has been much weaker. As shown below, the Citi Economic Surprise Index, which measures the pace at which indicators are beating estimates, has hit its lowest levels since the summer of 2011, when the economy hit an air pocket at the same time Washington debated raising the debt ceiling and created unnecessary uncertainty (eventually leading to a downgrade from S&P). While recent activity hasn’t been terrible, it’s extremely underwhelming due to the high expectations of economists. That doesn’t mean the economy is crashing; instead, economists will likely cut estimates, data will be stable or possibly tick up a bit, and suddenly the surprise index will rebound. To illustrate the process, below we’ve charted the Citi Economic surprise index and a good old fashioned sin function (remember those from middle school trigonometry?). You can’t use a sin function to predict when or how high the Citi Economic surprise index will bounce, but they are both cyclical, rising and falling back and forth over time. With economic surprises currently coming in worse than all but 5 prior periods of weak data in the history of the Citi index, it’s likely that chastened economists will start underestimating economic performance soon, at least at the margin, restarting the whole cycle to the upside.
How Much Longer Will the Expansion Last? Posted by lplresearch The latest economic expansion, which began June 2009, celebrated its eighth birthday this month. It also hit another milestone in recent months, when it became the third longest expansion since World War II, exceeding the length of the 92-month expansion that started in November 1982. So, what does this mean for the expansion moving forward? As we have indicated in the past, we don’t believe that expansions die of old age. Rather, they die of excesses. As noted in our Midyear Outlook 2017: A Shift in Market Control publication, the economy has experienced a slow and steady trajectory throughout the expansion, and this slower pace may actually lessen the potential for economic excesses; a theory that is corroborated by readings for levels of spending, confidence, and borrowing as measured by the LPL Research Over Index. Despite a weak first quarter where gross domestic product (GDP) growth came in at a disappointing 1.2%, we continue to look for the U.S. economy to expand near 2.5% in 2017 with potential for further acceleration in 2018. Although potential delays in passing major fiscal policies introduce some risk to the downside, our optimism stems from: Recent data on consumption, employment, housing, manufacturing, and services all pointing toward potential improvement in the months and quarters ahead. Continued job growth and moderate wage gains that may allow for consumption growth without the need for an accommodative central bank. Anticipated fiscal legislation that may provide further incentives for businesses to take economic risks, such as investing in property, plant, and equipment, to position for future growth. Potential risks to our outlook include: “Soft data,” such as consumer and business confidence measures, need to translate into stronger “hard data” (actual measures of economic activity). Continued strength in business spending will be needed to drive productivity growth, which is key to sustainable long-term economic growth. Fiscal policy could also enable government spending to help drive GDP, while the Federal Reserve’s tightening of monetary policy may limit upward pressure on the U.S. dollar, mitigating the potential for currency gains to interfere with export growth (a stronger U.S. dollar makes domestic goods more expensive for foreign buyers). Also, global GDP growth has been trending positive in 2017, and further improvements could benefit the U.S. economy by boosting exports. Fiscal and monetary policy, coupled with recent economic trends, suggest our beginning-of-year forecast for near 2.5% GDP growth in 2017 remains reasonable. Oil Formed A Death Cross: Is That Good Or Bad? Posted by lplresearch On May 30, 2017, the crude oil (WTI) daily price chart triggered what market technicians call a moving average “death cross” event. This occurs when the shorter-term 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crosses below its longer-term 200-day average (Figure 1). However, based on historical data, this may indicate that the commodity is in its initial stages of stabilization and a bottoming process. Some market participants believe that when the shorter-term SMA moves below the longer-term SMA a bearish trend will persist; but this may not always be true. In some cases, the price begins to stabilize and move higher shortly after the crossover takes place. Figure 1. Looking at 32 years of historical data on the crude oil (WTI) daily chart, there were 23 instances when the 50-day SMA crosses below the 200-day SMA. Subsequent price returns tended to be flat to modestly lower for approximately three months before stabilizing and moving higher over the next six-to-nine months (Figure 2). Figure 2. Data: 1985 – June, 2016 Often, a death cross event is the after effect of a bearish intermediate-term price trend and tends to be a lagging indicator of future market direction. Oil price patterns may have just triggered a death cross, but current market conditions and historical data suggest a period of price stabilization may be likely which could signal the beginning stages of a bottoming process. Crude Oil Is In A Bear Market; Now What? Posted by lplresearch It has been a rough year so far for crude oil with yesterday’s close at a fresh nine-month low officially pushing the commodity into bear market territory. Sparking much of the continued weakness is the usual worry that rising supply from the U.S. and Libya will continue to offset production cuts from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Per Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist, “Crude oil moving into bear market territory has many concerned that this is a sign of a potential global economic slowdown. We don’t see it that way, as this pullback has been, and continues to be, supply-driven, as opposed to demand-driven. Also, crude oil in a bear market is not uncommon, as 35% of the time since 1985 it has traded at least 20% off its trailing 52-week high.” The last time crude oil was officially in a bear market was in early August of last year. As the chart below shows, this was one of the longest streaks without crude oil having a bear market. So, what does it mean? Crude is in a bear market; so what? Well, historically the future returns have been much better when crude was in a bear market than when it wasn’t. In fact, a year out, crude has been up 18.1% on average when it was in a bear market versus up only 1.1% if it wasn’t. As we noted in our newly released Midyear Outlook 2017: A Shift In Market Control publication, one of our favorite plays in the energy group is via master limited partnerships (MLP). Overall, the Trump administration’s stance on energy deregulation is supportive and yields on MLPs remain very attractive, though further crude oil weakness and interest rate risk remain potential headwinds. For a more detailed look at MLPs, check out this recent Weekly Market Commentary. A Closer Look At New S&P 500 Index Highs Posted by lplresearch So far, two things that stand out about 2017 are the historic lack of volatility and the steady upward trend for equities. The two tend to go hand in hand, however, as some of the most bullish years often occurred amid non-volatile market environments. Per Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist, “2017 has been great so far for equity bulls, as the S&P 500 Index has made 23 new highs already. Although there is a long way to go before this year is over, should it keep this pace, that would come out to 51 new highs for the full year—one of the most ever.” Be sure to check out our Midyear Outlook 2017: A Shift in Market Control, published today, to uncover what we foresee could happen throughout the rest of the year. Over the remainder of the month, we will take a closer look at our Midyear Outlook on this blog and dive further into what we expect during the second half of the year from the economy, U.S. stocks, and international markets. Last, here’s the same chart as above, but a different take on it: We’ve shared this chart before, but we believe it’s important to do so again since it clearly shows that new highs have tended to happen in clusters that can last years, even decades.
Stockaholics come join us in our weekly market poll and vote where you think the markets will end this upcoming week ahead!- Weekly SPX Poll - Sentiment (6/26-6/30) <-- click there to cast your weekly vote for this upcoming week! In addition we have our weekly stock picking challenge now up and running as well!- Stockaholics Weekly Stock Picking Contest for the Week of (6/26-6/30) <-- click there to post your weekly picks for this week! We also have a daily stock picking & market direction guessing challenge running here!- Stockaholics Daily Stock Pick Challenge & SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (6/26) <-- click there to cast your daily vote & stock pick for Monday! ======================================================================================================== And lastly here are our upcoming monthly and quarterly stock market polls & stock picking challenges- First the polls- Monthly SPX Poll - July 2017 Sentiment <-- click there to cast your monthly vote for July! Quarterly SPX Poll - Q3 Sentiment (July - September) 2017 <-- click there to cast your quarterly vote for Q3! And here are our stock picking challenge threads- Stockaholics July 2017 Stock Picking Contest <-- click there to post your monthly picks for July! Stockaholics Q3 2017 Quarterly Stock Picking Contest <-- click there to post your quarterly picks for Q3! ======================================================================================================== It would be pretty awesome to see some of you join us and participate on these. I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!
Stock Market Analysis for Week Ending 6.23.17 Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6.25.17 - Trader Brady Bunch with Scooter Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
Here are the most anticipated ERs for this upcoming week ahead (I'll also have the earnings chart posted in here as well once it's ready) ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time*** Monday 6.26.17 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Monday 6.26.17 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE. Tuesday 6.27.17 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 6.27.17 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 6.28.17 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 6.28.17 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 6.29.17 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 6.29.17 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 6.30.17 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE. Friday 6.30.17 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE.
Here are the most anticipated earnings releases for this upcoming week ahead: ($MU $NKE $DRI $RAD $KBH $STZ $AOBC $PAYX $GIS $FDS $WBA $MON $SCHN $INFO $AYI $CAG $MKC $AVAV $SJR $UNF) Micron Technology, Inc. $31.73 Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, June 29, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.50 per share on revenue of $5.40 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.53 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.43 to $1.57 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 1,975.00% with revenue increasing by 86.34%. Short interest has increased by 4.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 6.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 35.2% above its 200 day moving average of $23.46. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, June 9, 2017 there was some notable buying of 14,749 contracts of the $31.00 call expiring on Friday, July 21, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 9.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.3% move in recent quarters. Nike Inc $52.85 Nike Inc (NKE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, June 29, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.49 per share on revenue of $8.61 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.54 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 53% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 0.00% with revenue increasing by 4.44%. Short interest has decreased by 13.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 3.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 0.9% below its 200 day moving average of $53.34. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 15, 2017 there was some notable buying of 26,243 contracts of the $52.00 put expiring on Friday, June 30, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 5.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.6% move in recent quarters. Darden Restaurants, Inc. $88.73 Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, June 27, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.15 per share on revenue of $1.86 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.17 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 4.55% with revenue increasing by 3.90%. Short interest has decreased by 26.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 12.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 17.8% above its 200 day moving average of $75.29. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, June 23, 2017 there was some notable buying of 15,052 contracts of the $75.00 put and 3,928 contracts of the $87.50 call expiring on Friday, July 21, 2017. The stock has averaged a 4.1% move on earnings in recent quarters. Rite Aid Corp. $3.11 Rite Aid Corp. (RAD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, June 29, 2017. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.02 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 54% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 300.00% with revenue decreasing by 87.79%. Short interest has increased by 2.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 19.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 50.8% below its 200 day moving average of $6.33. On Thursday, June 22, 2017 there was some notable buying of 12,194 contracts of the $2.50 put expiring on Friday, July 21, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 27.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 1.3% move in recent quarters. KB Home $22.41 KB Home (KBH) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, June 27, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.26 per share on revenue of $922.06 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.28 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 52.94% with revenue increasing by 13.69%. Short interest has decreased by 32.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 12.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 25.5% above its 200 day moving average of $17.86. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, June 23, 2017 there was some notable buying of 870 contracts of the $9.00 put expiring on Friday, July 21, 2017. The stock has averaged a 4.5% move on earnings in recent quarters. Constellation Brands, Inc. $184.57 Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Thursday, June 29, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.98 per share on revenue of $1.95 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.02 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 68% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 28.57% with revenue decreasing by 5.02%. Short interest has decreased by 16.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 9.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.1% above its 200 day moving average of $163.14. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, June 23, 2017 there was some notable buying of 7,906 contracts of the $210.00 call expiring on Friday, January 19, 2018. The stock has averaged a 4.9% move on earnings in recent quarters. American Outdoor Brands Corporation $23.70 American Outdoor Brands Corporation (AOBC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, June 29, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.38 per share on revenue of $209.51 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.42 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 81% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.32 to $0.42 per share on revenue of $200.00 million to $220.00 million. Short interest has decreased by 10.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 30.8% from its open following the earnings release. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, June 20, 2017 there was some notable buying of 3,758 contracts of the $22.50 put expiring on Friday, July 21, 2017. The stock has averaged a 2.8% move on earnings in recent quarters. Paychex, Inc. $59.24 Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:30 AM ET on Wednesday, June 28, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.53 per share on revenue of $798.23 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.54 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 63% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 8.16% with revenue increasing by 5.88%. Short interest has increased by 2.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 2.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 0.3% above its 200 day moving average of $59.03. Overall earnings estimates have been unchanged since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, June 13, 2017 there was some notable buying of 8,362 contracts of the $60.00 call expiring on Friday, July 21, 2017. The stock has averaged a 2.7% move on earnings in recent quarters. General Mills, Inc. $55.94 General Mills, Inc. (GIS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:55 AM ET on Wednesday, June 28, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.71 per share on revenue of $3.75 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.72 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 44% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 7.58% with revenue decreasing by 4.53%. Short interest has increased by 31.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 6.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.5% below its 200 day moving average of $60.48. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, June 2, 2017 there was some notable buying of 10,113 contracts of the $57.50 put expiring on Friday, January 19, 2018. The stock has averaged a 1.9% move on earnings in recent quarters. FactSet Research Systems, Inc. $166.77 FactSet Research Systems, Inc. (FDS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, June 27, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.84 per share on revenue of $314.13 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.84 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 44% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.80 to $1.86 per share on revenue of $301.00 million to $307.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 12.20% with revenue increasing by 9.26%. Short interest has increased by 13.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 0.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 0.5% above its 200 day moving average of $166.00. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 4.2% move on earnings in recent quarters.
So I was doing some research on price support technical levels on youtube and look what popped up. 48 likes , not bad @StockJock-e
^^ haha that is a nice find there @Steven_Burt man, it's hard to believe we're already coming up on the end of the quarter and the midway point on the year already this week! what's on everyone's radar heading into this final week of Q2?
Always AMD, but I'm watching BAC for an entry around $22, AKS for an entry around $6, S I may get in soon with a fairly tight stop (just hoping it holds the 200MA), and might make a real small gamble on RAD though I'll probably stay away from that one.
I bought RH puts last week when 60.11 failed, it's too extended to break that double top. Man I would love to re=test the 52.20's: Also watching TTWO for a short her:
Bio's and Solars are at ridiculous levels based on hype news imo, and soon oil names might be long ... maybe.
I thought that chart looked familiar... almost like looking in a rearview mirror Theyre not even in the same sector, so i dont see how there could be any arbitration....... still eerily coincidental Makes me think about buying BBRY again, see if the spooky pattern continues
Italy bailing out 2 banks for $5.2B euros http://www.bbc.com/news/business-40400210 When it's okay to take risks even when the only alternative is a bailout, that's what it's like to be a bankster.
watching amd, i want to get back in it lol. my ticker of the week goes to MU though, its up pre market, my biggest decision will be whether to hold through earnings or take my profits. and ill also be watching TWLO, currently trading at $30 pre market, playing out nicely for that gap fill at $32. looking to get out of it this week if it hits my target.
