Stock Market Today: August 7th - August 11th

I'll be out of stocks next week while I'm on a family vacation. Would like to short MNST, think it stays in this range (edit: on second view it may be ready to leave this range. Either way I'm just watching right now).


I don't think a sugar tax can be good for these guys but it's gone up all year (edit: evidently expanding in China). Also FIZZ and SODA are doing fine. So it's probably best that I stay out of a short right now.

 

I'm interested in shorting oil /cl if it gets up around 50.50.

I also think we're in a particularly weak time of the year for markets. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a quick spike up soon that starts a large sell off (Probably the only one for the year) which causes a lot of OMG the sky is falling! only to be bought back up and reaching all time highs again before Christmas.

 

can this market please just go down already is that really too much to ask? i mean, how 'bout even the bare minimum -2% pullback? i can't even remember the last time there was a -5% dip off the highs ... it's gotta be well over a year i think (?) ... one of the longest stretches in market history ... the resiliency of this market is really unprecedented ... the month of august is notorious for being one of the worst performing months (if not the worst) for markets out of the entire year ... i know some people have been harping on october-ish for the time they think a pullback might be coming ... but if everyone and their cousins are on the same page on line of thinking then you know what happens lol ... and it's not like we don't have catalysts for some downside action ... they're certainly out there ... but being brushed aside for now

i do like @Baggi's idea of a spike higher and then a selloff ... as the shadowtrader guys always seem to mention ... we don't have any excess on the market profile ... ideally you'd want to see some kind of spike high to ATHs during the RTH (regular trading hours) followed by failure and a quick move down ... that be a nice topping tail and a juicy excess high on the profile ... let's see if that happens this week

also, anyone paying attention to this wicked divergence we've been seeing between the DJIA and the transports? they have been moving nearly 100% opposite of each other since about mid june ...



that looks awfully ominous to me

thoughts?

 

I'm thinking there are a lot of signs right now of a major pullback.

1) 9 months almost all of them straight up. We had one month that was down, but it was close to flat.
2) My conspiracy theory that Republican Presidency's lead to bear markets (Too long to explain if you haven't heard it before)
3) There's a pretty solid long term FIB that has this up move starting in March around 2009 and the 23.6% fib is around 2487, which, we're almost there.
4) Divergence mentioned above. I've been expecting a big up move and then down, but we've gotten that in the DOW, haven't we?
5) All time lows in the VIX.
6) We are in the two months of the year that tend to be the worst months over the past 20 or so years.

 

thank you! this place looks awfully familiar

what's on your radar this morning?

markets opening flattish in the first 30min. here

with earnings season largely coming to a close there are not many catalysts for either direction from here (yet)

however plenty of geopolitical hot spots out there ... but the markets say it's not an issue until it is ... kind of a scary thought but it is what it is

so, 'til then i guess just continue carrying on and BTFDs!

here are a couple of interesting market facts per Ryan Detrick:

• The SPX traded in a weekly range of only 0.56% last week, the 2nd smallest weekly range using data back to 1970.

• The range for the SPX the past 2 weeks was only 0.98%. Since '70, only a periods in '93 and '16 were smaller.

• The absolute value of the previous 15 SPX changes is only 2.09%. Going back to '28, that's the 4th smallest ever and smallest since '69.

• The SPX hasn't traded in a 1% range either of the past two weeks. Have to go back to 1993 the last time it did that three weeks in a row.

• The SPX hasn't traded in a 1% daily range in 25 trading sessions. Incredibly, it has only done it 6 times this year.

• Since '90, SPX avg yr has 134 days that trade in a range >1%. The 6 this yr is astronomically out of proportion. 39 in '93 is the record.

• Dow with a shot at being up 10 consecutive days today. This would be the 2nd 10-day win streak of the year. That hasn't happened since '59.

• The Dow has closed at an all-time high 8 consecutive days. Going back to 1900, this is only the 10th time that has ever happened.

• SPX hasn't closed up or down 0.3% for 12 consecutive days. 10 in a row in '66 and '61 were the previous records.

you wanna talk about a narrow range ....... wow

 

Here are some of the notable Earnings Releases due out After Market Close today (8/7/17)-
($TWLO $MAR $CBI $ALB $GWPH $CBS $LC $CAR $MNKD $RUN $IPHI $THC $TWOU $AIRG $ARNA $NVRO $EVHC $MIME)

Spoiler: CLICK HERE FOR THE EARNINGS RELEASES AFTER MARKET CLOSE TODAY!

And here are the notable ERs due out Before the Open tomorrow morning (8/8/17)-
($VRX $CVS $PLUG $KORS $W $IONS $ENDP $KITE $LNG $USCR $RL $NCLH $MNK $ZTS $VNTV $PDCE $LGIH $ACM $EBIX)

Spoiler: CLICK HERE FOR THE EARNINGS RELEASES BEFORE MARKET OPEN TOMORROW!

gl to all of those who are playing earnings!

 

i guess this is what they mean by summer doldrums haha ... if you had to define the words "choppy markets" this is it to a tee right here

cash spx full range today (up to this point) is just 0.16%

if this hold through to the close i imagine that will be challenging the smallest daily range in some decades

 

Haha really tight range today, like you said less than 0.2% range for the SPX today Tech stocks outperforming after lagging the market lately

 

can someone please explain to me what this arrow on @T0rm3nted's image above means?



i think i have seen it before but i can't remember...its been too long ago