Icahn is averaged at $23.83 and owns 14 million shares, which is basically 17% of the float. Allow that to sink in for a moment.
Well it "was" ouch. In my mind there is no way he remains underwater on the shares and judging by the volume flooding into this name it's not going to take long. FCX was nearly the same situation. That man's threshold for pain before achieving profitability is astounding though. LOL
Bullish technical indication. A break of 18.90 could move it up to 22.08 in short term. http://www.stoxline.com/quote.php?symbol=htz
A real runner taking place since that last update when it shot up from the 15's to the 17's. The stock ended up pulling back on profit taking to test the $17.30 low of that massive stop volume candle with the long lower wick and held for support. The sheer size of that candle and the amount of volume that occurred within it has much more longer termed implications, which I'm not going to get into it other than to point out that that is some serious absorption of supply. It has since found new buyers and propelled from the 17's back inside of the old range I've highlighted with the green box. The POC (point of control) or "most actively traded price" of that range is around $27.30. With Icahn owning a huge chunk of the float, I have to imagine supply has dried up and shares are in much longer/stronger hands. Considering his average cost and where that previous POC of $27.30 is - there is more upside to come. Market makers will be encouraged to help guide price back there before year's end ......... which is typical in reversion trades. There is some slight horizontal resistance along the way around 23.40.
The reason you should focus on the Stop Volume candle is because: #1 = The volume that occurred there for that week was a sell climax and the most in the history of this chart. If it's a worthwhile investment, institutional "smart money" will use the panic to set up long positions without moving price up against their orders. Icahn is averaged at $23.83 -----> what does that tell you about "when" he most likely started buying? Getting the picture yet? #2 = The long lower wick of that candle shows a quick rejection of the low 17's all the way back to the base of the body of the candle at $28.00. It represents demand that was too overwhelming for the market makers, so an immediate bounce back ensued. Once price settles down, the market makers will manipulate weak hands, so-as to bring price back down to where they may have had orders left to fill for institutional buyers. That's why you commonly see re-tests of the lows of a long lower wick like that. In this stock's case it actually broke the low of that wick around $17.30. The key here is that with this week's move up to $21.74, it has now jumped back inside of the range of that stop volume candle. Common sense says to start reviewing the most actively traded price levels within that demand zone. In this case there are two: The POC at $27.30, but there is also an HVN (high volume node) right below it near that $23.50 horizontal resistance I mentioned in my previous post. HVN's must be respected - if enough sellers turn up there it could quickly grow into the new POC level. If I wasn't paying attention and didn't know about Icahn's $23.83 average, I more than likely would sell at the HVN ..... or at least half. It still may be wise to take some off there, but with him owning such a significant portion of the float one has to believe bigger things are coming - making the full reversion to the $27.30 feasible. Most of that 125 million share sell climax was absorbed - so I wouldn't fault someone if they stuck it out even longer.
so... let's break 22 and move to 22,50 today.. if we can stabilize over 22 into the weekend this baby will easily hit 28 within 1 month
HTZ hit $22.91 this morning. As expected there were orders up in this area (the HVN in my chart). At this point it's likely it will need to digest/consolidate the 30% move it made this week before being able to continue on.
This is the volume profile or "volume bell curve" of this week's movie. Remember these bars show you graphically how much volume is occurring at each price level. Currently the lower curve is at $17.11 or VAL (Value Area Low), the upper curve or VAH (Value Area High) is at $21.40. The POC (point of control) is the red line at $18.43. Notice the volume profile bars I circled in today's move up to $22.91. They were thin and quickly rejected that area - that was a test for supply. For now there is not enough buying to take us through that previously known resistance. Luckily there is an HVN (high volume node) at $21.71 - if price continues to build around there it should become the new POC providing significant support for consolidation. The VAH theoretically should also provide a second level of support. If the POC doesn't shift up to $21.71 then I don't expect the VAH to hold and a re-test towards the breakout from $20.23 is more likely.
It breached he VAH on increased volume ..... so now the focus is on filling in the price area I circled. Again the stock moved 30% this week, so pulling 10% off the highs is healthy IMO.
I detailed in the above posted to watch for the $20.23 area on the dip. Actual support kicked in smidge below that around $19.80 and has shown continued signs of demand. Notice a new POC has formed as "value" has risen from the $9.00 area up to around $18.00. This is great news for support for the longs.
