Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of November 27th! This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: Major Indices End of Week: Bird's Eye view of the Major Futures Markets on Friday: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD: What to Watch in the Week Ahead: Monday 9:45 a.m. Services PMI 10:00 a.m. New home sales 10:30 a.m. Dallas Fed manufacturing 6:30 p.m. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari 7:00 p.m. New York Fed President William Dudley Tuesday 8:30 a.m. Advanced economic indicators 9:00 a.m. S&P/Case Shiller home prices 9:00 a.m. FHFA home prices 9:15 a.m. New York Fed's Dudley 10:00 a.m. Consumer confidence 10:00 a.m. Jerome Powell Fed chair confirmation hearing before Senate Banking committee 10:15 a.m. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker 10:30 a.m. Dallas Fed services Wednesday 8:30 a.m. Real GDP Q3 8:30 a.m. New York Fed's Dudley 10:00 a.m. Fed Chair Janet Yellen testifies before Congress on the economy 10:00 a.m. Pending home sales 12:45 p.m. San Francisco Fed President John Williams 2:00 p.m. Beige book Thursday 8:30 a.m. Jobless claims 8:30 a.m. Personal income 9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI 1:00 p.m. Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan Friday Monthly vehicle sales 9:05 a.m. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard 9:30 a.m. Dallas Fed's Kaplan 9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI 10:00 a.m. ISM manufacturing 10:00 a.m. Construction spending 10:15 a.m. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker
Stocks Surge On Biggest Short Squeeze Since Election As Dollar Dumps To Worst Year Since 2009 Stocks are at record highs (so is debt) so get out and consume America... Ugly week for China... German stocks just could not decide what to do this week after Merkel's mishaps... But solid EU PMIs seemed to spur manic Euro buying... Unsurprisingly on the most seasonally-bullish week of the year, US stocks were up...Small Caps outperformed (Dow/S&P lagged) S&P closed above 2600 for the first as VIX flash crashed into the early close... Close up shows the instant drop to 8.56 and right back up... On the heels of the biggest short-squeeze since the election... (shorts squeezed 6 days in a row)... As the machines shrugged off FX carry weakness... Treasury yields were mixed on the week with 2Y up 2bps and 30Y down 2bps... With the yield curve continuing to collapse... The Bloomberg Dollar Index fell for the 3rd straight week... Despite 3 Fed rate hikes, the Bloomberg Dollar Index is having its worst year since 2009... Despite dollar weakness, precious metals were lower on the week as copper and crude jumped... Bitcoin made new record highs this week, but generally trade sideways (as Ether surged)...
Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD thus far in 2017- S&P sectors for the past week-
S&P 500 Sector Weightings Report — November 2017 Nov 22, 2017 S&P 500 sector weightings are important to monitor. Over the years when weightings have gotten extremely lopsided for one or two sectors, it hasn’t ended well. Below is a table showing S&P 500 sector weightings from the mid-1990s through 2012. In the early 1990s before the Dot Com bubble, the US economy was much more evenly weighted between manufacturing sectors and service sectors. Sector weightings were bunched together between 6% and 14% across the board. In 1990, Tech was tied for the smallest sector of the market at 6.3%, while Industrials was the largest at 14.7%. The spread between the largest and smallest sectors back then was just over 8 percentage points. The Dot Com bubble completely blew up the balanced economy, and looking back you can clearly see how lopsided things had become. Once the Tech bubble burst, it was the Financial sector that began its charge towards dominance. The Financial sector’s sole purpose is to service the economy, so in our view you never want to see the Financial sector make up the largest portion of the economy. That was the case from 2002 to 2007, though, and we all know how that ended. Unfortunately we’ve begun to see sector weightings get extremely out of whack again as 2017 comes to an end. It’s About Time: S&P 500 A/D Line Makes a New High Nov 21, 2017 For more than a year now, we have repeatedly highlighted how the S&P 500’s cumulative A/D line has consistently confirmed each new high in the S&P 500. For those unfamiliar with the term, the cumulative A/D line is simply a running total of the net number of S&P 500 components rising in price (stocks trading up on the day minus stocks trading down) each day. When the market is rising, the cumulative A/D line, or ‘breadth’ as it’s often referred to, should be rising, and when the market is falling, the opposite should be the case. The chart below compares the two over the last year, and it’s easy to see how closely the two have tracked each other over time. That’s a sign of a healthy market. In the last month, however, we did see a slight divergence between the S&P 500 and its cumulative A/D line. Prior to Tuesday’s trading, the last time the S&P 500 saw breadth reach a new high was more than a month earlier on 10/20. Despite the lack of a new high in breadth, the S&P 500 managed to post four closing highs during that span. Now, while there was technically a divergence between price and breadth, the difference was extremely minor, but big divergences have to start somewhere. Therefore, we were tracking it closely. When it comes to this indicator, though, there’s a lot less to worry about after Tuesday’s trading. That’s because the S&P 500 finally took out its cumulative A/D line as the index itself closed at another new all-time high just shy of 2,600. Thankfully breadth finally caught up. Things to Be Thankful For: 2017 Market Returns Nov 21, 2017 Below is an updated look at our asset class performance matrix showing total returns for ETFs so far in 2017. We also show total returns so far this month and in the fourth quarter. Aside from a few areas like the US Energy and Telecom sectors plus oil and natural gas, every other asset class on the matrix is positive on a total return basis in 2017. As we approach Thanksgiving 2017, there’s certainly a lot for investors to be thankful for this year. S&P 500 Hot Streak Extended Nov 21, 2017 With today’s new highs, the S&P 500’s current bull market has extended to 3,179 calendar days dating back to March 9th, 2009. To surpass the record length for a bull market (20%+ rally without a 20%+ decline), there’s still a long way to go, as the bull market from 12/4/1987 through 3/24/2000 lasted 4,494 days. The current streak of days without a 10%+ pullback has yet to crack the top ten, but it will if we go another 2 days. As shown in the top right table below, the 10th longest streak without a 10%+ pullback was 650 days from 10/22/1957 to 8/3/1959. The current streak without a 10%+ pullback is now at 649 days. The S&P 500 isn’t anywhere close to breaking the longest streak of days without a 10%+ pullback. That title belongs to the rally that lasted 2,553 days from 10/11/1990 to 10/7/1997. During that seven-year span, the S&P rallied 232.74% without a single 10% decline on a closing basis. For the current streak to match the record, we’d have to make it to February 2023 without a 10%+ decline from a peak. Imagine that. While the record for the longest rally without a 10%+ pullback is nowhere in sight, we’re getting closer to breaking the record for longest streak without a 5%+ pullback. As of today, the S&P hasn’t seen a 5%+ decline since June 27th, 2016 — a period of 512 calendar days. To break the record, the current streak would need to stretch to 594 days, taking us out to February 11th of next year — easily do-able given the market’s current lack of volatility, but by no means a guarantee. Finally, one record the current rally does hold is the longest rally without a 3%+ pullback. The S&P 500 hasn’t pulled back 3%+ in 382 days dating back to last November. As shown in the bottom right chart below, that’s 12 days longer than the prior record stretch of 370 days without a 3%+ pullback that ran from December 1994 to December 1995.
Here are the most anticipated ERs for this upcoming week ahead (I'll also have the earnings chart posted in here as well once it's ready) ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time*** Monday 11.27.17 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE. Monday 11.27.17 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 11.28.17 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 11.28.17 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 11.29.17 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 11.29.17 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 11.30.17 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 11.30.17 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 12.1.17 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 12.1.17 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE.
Stockaholics come join us in our weekly market poll and stock picking competition for this upcoming trading week ahead!- Stockaholics Weekly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll (11/27-12/1) <-- click there to cast your weekly vote and post your weekly picks for this upcoming week ahead! We also now have our monthly market poll and stock picking competition up and running and for your monthly votes and picks!- Stockaholics December 2017 Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll <-- click there to cast your monthly vote and post your monthly picks for December! ======================================================================================================== It would be pretty awesome to see all of you join us and participate! I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!
And as promised here are the most anticipated ERs calendar for this upcoming holiday-shortened week ahead: ($MOMO $ULTA $KR $KTNX $TIF $VMW $ADSK $MRVL $WDAY $TECD $AMBA $HTHT $BOX $BNS $PSTG $TD $MIK $NOMD $FIVE $JACK $RY $MTSC $ZUMZ $PVH $EARS $LEJU $CBK $GWRE $BKS $BIG $DCI $CM $EXPR $GSM $HOME $PLAB) Momo Inc. $32.14 Momo Inc. (MOMO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:30 AM ET on Tuesday, November 28, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.38 per share on revenue of $341.00 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.40 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $337.00 million to $342.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 100.00% with revenue increasing by 117.13%. Short interest has increased by 137.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 20.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 10.9% below its 200 day moving average of $36.05. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, November 9, 2017 there was some notable buying of 2,157 contracts of the $30.00 call expiring on Friday, December 15, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 13.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.7% move in recent quarters. ULTA Beauty $210.37 ULTA Beauty (ULTA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, November 30, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.66 per share and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.70 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.63 to $1.68 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 18.57% with revenue decreasing by 11.69%. Short interest has decreased by 8.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 2.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 17.7% below its 200 day moving average of $255.66. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, November 21, 2017 there was some notable buying of 564 contracts of the $227.50 call expiring on Friday, December 1, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 10.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.6% move in recent quarters. Kroger Co. $22.98 Kroger Co. (KR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:50 AM ET on Thursday, November 30, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.40 per share on revenue of $27.31 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.43 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 60% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 2.44% with revenue increasing by 2.84%. The stock has drifted higher by 7.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 10.3% below its 200 day moving average of $25.60. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, November 24, 2017 there was some notable buying of 6,450 contracts of the $22.50 put expiring on Friday, December 15, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 7.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.9% move in recent quarters. Nutanix, Inc. $34.30 Nutanix, Inc. (NTNX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, November 30, 2017. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.26 per share on revenue of $266.73 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.21) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for a loss of approximately $0.37 per share on revenue of $240.00 million to $250.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 46.94% with revenue increasing by 59.90%. Short interest has increased by 10.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 45.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 55.7% above its 200 day moving average of $22.03. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, November 24, 2017 there was some notable buying of 1,021 contracts of the $40.00 call expiring on Friday, December 15, 2017. The stock has averaged a 10.9% move on earnings in recent quarters. Tiffany & Co. $93.04 Tiffany & Co. (TIF) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 3:40 AM ET on Wednesday, November 29, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.76 per share on revenue of $961.06 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.79 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 66% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 0.00% with revenue increasing by 1.24%. Short interest has decreased by 7.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 1.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.8% above its 200 day moving average of $91.36. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, November 21, 2017 there was some notable buying of 3,000 contracts of the $120.00 put expiring on Friday, January 19, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 6.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.7% move in recent quarters. VMware Inc $124.22 VMware Inc (VMW) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, November 30, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.27 per share on revenue of $1.96 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.29 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 81% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest has decreased by 8.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 20.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 25.2% above its 200 day moving average of $99.18. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, November 1, 2017 there was some notable buying of 3,779 contracts of the $120.00 put expiring on Friday, January 19, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 6.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.0% move in recent quarters. Autodesk, Inc. $129.50 Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, November 28, 2017. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.13 per share on revenue of $514.77 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.11) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 64% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for a loss of $0.16 to $0.12 per share on revenue of $505.00 million to $515.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 50.00% with revenue increasing by 5.14%. Short interest has increased by 3.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 12.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 23.0% above its 200 day moving average of $105.30. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, November 21, 2017 there was some notable buying of 3,705 contracts of the $130.00 call expiring on Friday, January 19, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 7.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.8% move in recent quarters. Marvell Technology Group Ltd. $23.80 Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (MRVL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, November 28, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.32 per share on revenue of $611.13 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.34 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 79% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.30 to $0.34 per share on revenue of $595.00 million to $625.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 45.45% with revenue decreasing by 6.62%. Short interest has decreased by 33.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 43.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 41.3% above its 200 day moving average of $16.84. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, November 20, 2017 there was some notable buying of 2,118 contracts of the $20.00 call expiring on Friday, December 15, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 7.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.8% move in recent quarters. Workday, Inc. $116.14 Workday, Inc. (WDAY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Wednesday, November 29, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.15 per share on revenue of $540.79 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.17 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 72% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $538.00 million to $540.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 600.00% with revenue increasing by 32.03%. The stock has drifted higher by 6.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 18.9% above its 200 day moving average of $97.69. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, November 8, 2017 there was some notable buying of 2,975 contracts of the $110.00 call expiring on Friday, December 1, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 7.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.8% move in recent quarters. Tech Data Corp. $92.43 Tech Data Corp. (TECD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM ET on Monday, November 27, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.90 per share on revenue of $9.05 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.93 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 79% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.84 to $2.04 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 31.94% with revenue increasing by 39.44%. Short interest has decreased by 2.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 3.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 2.6% below its 200 day moving average of $94.85. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 8.1% move on earnings in recent quarters.
so, what do we all got on the radar heading into this final trading week of the month? anything noteworthy to keep a close eye on? any good setups? good luck to everyone this week!
Huge rally by the banks today I guess the hope of the Senate passing the tax bill later this week is pretty high now
