Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of December 11th! This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: Major Indices End of Week: Bird's Eye view of the Major Futures Markets on Friday: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD: What to Watch in the Week Ahead: T.B.A.
Precious Metals Pounded As Bitcoin Soars To Best Week Since 2013 Could be worse, you could be short Bitcoin this week... Nasdaq closed lower for the 2nd week in a row - the first such consecutive loss since August... Retailers were squeezed to the best gains on the week, financials rallied solidly but Tech fall back to unch... Gold tumbled 2.5% this week (biggest weekly drop in 7 months) as Bitcoin soared 40% (its best weekly gain since Dec 2013) FANG Stocks rose on the week with an opening bid every day... High Tax stocks outperformed low tax... Treasury yields rose marginally on the week.. But 30Y ended practically unchanged... And the yield curve ended flatter on the week... The Dollar index rose all five days this week, the first 5 day win streak since March... The biggest drivers of dollar strength were the commodity currencies (Aussie and Loonie)... Copper and Silver were joint worst performers in the commodity-space as Crude rebounded today but ended lower on the week... Silver is now underwater for the year... Finally as Bitcoin slipped today, Ethereum outperformed... For those keeping track, this is how long it has taken Bitcoin to cross the key psychological levels: $0000 - $1000: 1789 days $1000- $2000: 1271 days $2000- $3000: 23 days $3000- $4000: 62 days $4000- $5000: 61 days $5000- $6000: 8 days $6000- $7000: 13 days $7000- $8000: 14 days $8000- $9000: 9 days $9000-$10000: 2 days $10000-$11000: 1 day $11000-$12000: 6 days $12000-$13000: 17 hours $13000-$14000: 4 hours $14000-$15000: 10 hours $15000-$16000: 5 hours $16000-$17000: 2 hours $17000-$18000: 10 minutes $18000-$19000: 3 minutes $19,000-$15,000: 24 hours
Spoiler: Weekend Reading: Recession Risk Hidden In Tax Bill Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Since the election, equity bulls have been pinning their hopes on “tax cuts” as the needed injection to support currently elevated stock prices. Stocks have advanced sharply since the election on these expectations, and while earnings have recovered, primarily due to the rise in oil prices, whatever economic growth was to come from tax reform has likely already been priced in. For some background on our views, both Michael Lebowitz and I have been discussing the tax bills as they are currently proposed since May of this year. The Spurious Math Of A Tax Cut Rally Corporate Tax Cuts – The Seen & Unseen 3-Myths About Tax Cuts Bull Trap: The False Promise Of Tax Cuts The Conundrum Of Debt, Tax Cuts & The Economy Tax Cuts – The Economic Cure-All Buy The Rumor – Sell The News We are currently in the second longest economic expansion since WWII. While Republican lawmakers are betting on jump-starting economic growth, the problem becomes the length of the current liquidity-driven expansion. All economic cycles end, and we are already closer to the end of the current expansion than not. However, Patrick Watson over at Mauldin Economics recently made a brilliant observation. To wit: “The gap between the gray line (potential GDP) and the red line (actual GDP) represents unused capacity. You can see we had a lot of it at the recession’s 2009 depth. The gap slowly shrank since then. Now it’s closed. Great news, right? Yes, it is—but don’t celebrate just yet. Actual GDP can’t stay above potential GDP for long before bad things start happening. This chart proves it:” “We see here how GDP moved above and below its potential since the 1970s. Notice that each time the green line went above zero, a recession (the gray bars) began soon after. ‘Soon’ can vary, of course. GDP ran above potential for extended periods in the late 1990s and 2006–2007, but in both cases, intense downturns followed. Plus, the Fed wasn’t tightening as it is now—which suggests the current expansion is at least approaching its endpoint.” While the Trump administration, and congressional Republicans, suggest their tax changes will stimulate years of economic growth and more than pay for themselves, the reality is likely quite the opposite. What investors are missing is that while tax reform could well provide for a modest bump to GDP growth, that growth bump is being offset by the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy by lifting interest rates. Don’t forget, the reason the Fed lifts interest rates is to SLOW economic growth to quell inflationary pressures. Furthermore, as the brilliant minds at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget penned recently, the tax reform legislation will likely bring back trillion-dollar deficits by 2019. To wit: “If they aren’t careful, we estimate legislation under consideration could bring back trillion-dollar deficits by next year. Even under current law, deficits are likely to reach almost $600 billion this year and $700 billion next year. By our estimate, a combination of tax cuts, sequester relief, and other changes would increase deficits to $1.05 trillion by 2019 and $1.1 trillion by 2020.” Of course, a trillion-dollar deficit would require further debt growth in order to fund the revenue gap. As the debt levels continue to expand, estimated to hit $30 trillion over the next 8-years, the impact to economic growth will continue to be negative. With the Federal Reserve already in the process of reducing their balance sheet, with the rest of the world set to follow, the primary support of the markets is quickly fading. This elevates the risk of a policy mistake by the Fed, and as Doug Kass noted Wednesday, the risk of a Congressional mistake has also risen: “History shows that if the Senate version is adopted and the corporate tax rate reduction is delayed for another year, the odds of a recession are greatly increased. (A position that Art Laffer has publicly taken.) The biggest mistake made by the Reagan Administration was to delay the corporate cuts by a year as the Senate version does. Companies waited a year to expand capital investments back then - causing a recession in 1981-82.” Just something to think about as you catch up on your weekend reading list. Trump, Economy & Fed Deficit Hypocrisy On Full Display by Caroline Baum via MarketWatch GOP Tax Bill: “Fuggedaboutit” by David Stockman via Daily Reckoning A Conservative Uprising Confronts Deficit Hawks by Russell Berman via The Atlantic Tax Bill And Trillion-Dollar Deficits by Committee For A Responsible Federal Budget Worrying Data Raises Recession Fears by Simon Constable via Forbes The Negatives Of The GOP Tax Plan Via WallStreet by Tyler Durden via ZeroHedge GOP Sought To Undercut Unfavorable Analysis Of Tax Plan by Jim Tankersley via NYT A Tax Cut For Everyone by Stephen Moore via The Washington Times Tax Cuts Could Trigger The Next Recession by Patrick Watson via Forbes Senate Tax Bill Is Disappointing by Scott Sumner via Econolog The Great Recession Is Still With Us by Annie Lowrey via The Atlantic Media Is Dishonest About GOP Tax Plan by Philip Klein via Washington Examiner How An Unequal Tax Grew More Unequal by Heather Long via Washington Post The GOP War On Economics by Jonathan Chait via New York Magazine Not Much Evidence Tax Cuts Boost Wages by Marc Chandler via Real Clear Markets This Tweet Explains Why Millennials Are Fed Up by Jeff Stein via Washington Post Trump’s Economic Revolution All About Investment by Tyler Cowen via Bloomberg Markets BIS: Excessive Risk Taking & Consequences by Tyler Durden via ZeroHedge A List Of What WallStreet Has Said About Bitcoin by Mark Decambre via MarketWatch The Case For The No-America Portfolioby John Coumarianos vis WSJ An 18-Year Bull Market by SA Gil Weinreich via Seeking Alpha Today’s Rational Exuberance by Anatole Kaletsky via Project Syndicate Global Equity Markets $20 Trillion Dollar Mistake by Kevin Muir via The Macro Tourist A Doomsday Moment For High-Yield by Charlie Henneman via Enterprising Investor Is This The Scariest Chart Of All by Shawn Langlois via MarketWatch Rally Kicks Into Dangerous Overdrive by Michael Kahn via Barron’s JPM: Tax Cuts 50% Priced In by William Watts via MarketWatch Where To Find Income Without Big Risks by Paul Katzeff via IBD This Move Can Save Your Profits From A Crash by Michael Sincere via MarketWatch Blow Off Top by Sven Henrich via Northman Trader The Spurious Math Of A Tax Cut Rally by Michael Lebowitz via RIA Reflections Of A Distorted, Delusional Reality by Doug Kass via RIA Research / Interesting Reads Carmegeddon For Tesla by Wolf Richter via Wolf Street CB’s Have Stepped Into Every Market Shock Since 2013by Tyler Durden via ZeroHedge Blowing Up The Debt Is A Threat To America by Leon Panetta via USA Today Deep Value by Cliff Asness via AQR Capital Management Time For Investors To Loiter Around Lifeboats by Jonathon Rochford via MarketWatch Wealth Inequality Isn’t Our Biggest Issue by Jeffrey Harding via Independent Mind $1 Million Retirement Nest Egg Isn’t Enough Anymore by Jessica Dickler via CNBC Bitcoin: Is Greed Back? by Tom Lauricella via Morningstar.com Navigating The Speculative Id Of Wall Street by John Hussman via Hussman Funds Record Calm As Markets Get A Shock by Dana Lyons via The Lyons Share Time To Get Real With Your Portfolio by Jesse Felder via The Felder Report “As contrarians, the only thing to fear is the lack of fear itself.” – Bernie Schaeffer
Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD thus far in 2017- S&P sectors for the past week-
December options expiration belongs to the bulls December’s option expiration has a firmly bullish history. In fact, the week of options expiration and the week after have the most bullish record of all Triple Witching expirations (page 78, Stock Trader’s Almanac 2018). Since 1982, DJIA has advanced 27 times during December’s options expiration week with an average gain of 0.74%. S&P 500 has a similar, although slightly softer record. However, the record is not pristine. In 2011, Europe’s debt crisis derailed the market. In 2012, the threat of going over the fiscal cliff triggered a nearly 2% loss the week after. Why 2018 Could Be a Challenging Year for the Market Historically, midterm election years have not been that kind to traders and investors and 2018 is a midterm year. Since 1902, DJIA’s average full-year performance in midterm years is just 4.1%. S&P 500 is slightly stronger since 1930, gaining 4.8%. Midterm years that were also the second years of newly elected presidents have been even weaker, DJIA +1.1% and S&P 500 –0.4%. New Republican presidents were only fractionally better with DJIA gaining 2.2% in newly elected Republican president second years while S&P 500 climbed just 0.3%. One positive midterm 2018 has is past years ending in “8” have averaged healthy gains (purple line in charts below). The only year DJIA has suffered a double-digit decline in years ending in “8” was 2008. Typical December Pattern: Any Retreat Usually a Great Entry for Yearend Rally During the most recent 21-year period, 1996 to 2016, December has been a reasonably good performing month. December is #5 for DJIA (+1.3%) and S&P 500 (+1.3%). NASDAQ ranks third best with a (+1.8%). December is the best month for small-caps with Russell 2000 averaging 2.9% in the month. Based upon the above seasonal pattern chart December typically begins well with all five indexes generally trading higher over the first five to seven trading days of the month, then weaken ahead of mid-month before recovering to finish the month higher. Weakness ahead of mid-month could be the result of tax-related selling, but holiday cheer and the prospects for the upcoming year generally reverse any first half weakness. Breadth and Price: Joined at the Hip Dec 8, 2017 With some of the big intra-market moves we have seen in the last week to ten days, we thought it would be a good idea to provide a quick update of market breadth. In this case, we looked at the cumulative A/D line, which takes the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues each day and adding the result to the previous day’s value. In a healthy market, you want to see breadth either tracking or leading price, while periods where breadth lags and diverges from price is a red flag. Take a look at the chart below for the S&P 500 where the blue line is the S&P 500’s price and the red line is the cumulative A/D line over the last year. Could the two lines be any more similar? Based on this measure at least, market internals remain healthy. Taxes: Tech Pain is Financials and Industrials Gain Dec 6, 2017 Ever since the GOP tax reform bill moved out of the Senate Budget Committee on the 28th of November, we’ve seen some pretty big rotation out of some sectors and into others. The biggest loser by far, though, has been Technology, while Financials and Industrials have been beneficiaries. The chart below shows the relative strength of all three sectors versus the S&P 500 over the last year where a rising line indicates the sector is outperforming the S&P 500, while a falling line indicates underperformance. As shown in the chart, Technology had been a huge outperformer on the year leading up to late November, while both Financials and Industrials were lagging the market. That trend came to an abrupt halt last Tuesday, though, when the trends completely reversed. Now before we all start crying over the performance of the Technology sector, we would note that even after the recent moves, it is still outperforming every other sector this year by more than 15 percentage points, so there is a long way to go before it is actually lagging. Furthermore, the stocks that have been hit the hardest are still, for the most part, the biggest winners in 2017. The move in Financials, however, has been impactful as the sector has gone from underperforming the S&P 500 to outperforming on a YTD basis. Leaders Become Laggards — Updated YTD Winners Dec 6, 2017 Below is a quick look at S&P 500 sector performance so far in 2017. As shown, even after a pullback over the last week or so, Technology is still up double the S&P 500 with a gain of 34.2%. The next best sector is Financials with a gain of 19.1%, followed by Health Care (18.8%), Consumer Discretionary (18.5%), and Materials (18.4%). Telecom and Energy are both down 8%+ on the year. Over the last two weeks, we’ve seen the year’s biggest winners take a beating, while investors have shifted a bit into value stocks that had been underperforming. Below is a list of the biggest losers in the Russell 1,000 over the last two weeks. All of these stocks are down 10%+ over the last 10 trading days, and as you can see, there are quite a few of them! On average, these stocks are up 60% year-to-date, which shows that investors have been selling the biggest winners. Another way to highlight the recent weakness in the year’s winners is to look at the two-week performance of the stocks that are up the most year-to-date. Below is a list of the top performing stocks in the Russell 1,000 year-to-date. As shown, these stocks are down an average of 5.5% over the last two weeks. Over this same two-week period, the S&P 500 is up 1.18%. If you’ve had a great year thus far in the stock market, you’ve likely given some back over the last two weeks! How Equity Returns Stack Up Dec 5, 2017 With the S&P 500 finishing November with a gain of 3.1% on a total return basis, the index saw its 13th straight month of gains. That’s right. Since last November’s election, US equities haven’t seen a down month, which is pretty remarkable when you think about it. With such continuous strength, the S&P 500’s total return over the last 12 months has been a gain of 22.9%, which is nearly double the historical average of 11.7%! In the chart below, we have compared the S&P 500’s current one, two, five, ten, and twenty-year annualized total returns to their historical averages going back to the late 1920s. In the short to intermediate term, returns have been consistently above average with both the two and five-year annualized returns of over 15% exceeding the historical average by around five percentage points per year. Longer term, though, the impacts of the financial crisis and dot-com bust are still making their presence felt. Over the last ten years, the S&P 500’s 8.3% annualized return trails the historical average by about two percentage points, while the twenty-year annualized return of 7.2% trails the historical average of 11.1% by a pretty wide margin. The US equity market has obviously exited the dark ages of the early 2000s, but the scars, however faded they have become, are still there. Only time can heal.
Stock Market Analysis for Week Ending 12.8.17 Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon ShadowTrader Video Weekly 12.10.17 Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
Here are the most anticipated ERs for this upcoming week ahead (I'll also have the earnings chart posted in here as well once it's ready) ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time*** Monday 12.11.17 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Monday 12.11.17 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 12.12.17 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 12.12.17 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 12.13.17 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE. Wednesday 12.13.17 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 12.14.17 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 12.14.17 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 12.15.17 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE. Friday 12.15.17 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE.
Stockaholics come join us in our weekly market poll and stock picking competition for this upcoming trading week ahead!- Stockaholics Weekly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll (12/11-12/15) <-- click there to cast your weekly vote and post your weekly picks for this upcoming week ahead! ======================================================================================================== It would be pretty sweet to some of you join us and participate! I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!
And as promised here are the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming week ahead: ($ORCL $COST $ADBE $PPHM $SAFM $TAX $CASY $PAY $RMR $JBL $KMG $PIR $NDSN $ARWR $IRET $CIVI $ABM $ASPU $NX $STRM $TNTR $MDB $SCHL) Oracle Corp. $49.60 Oracle Corp. (ORCL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, December 14, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.68 per share on revenue of $9.55 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.69 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.66 to $0.70 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 13.33% with revenue increasing by 5.70%. The stock has drifted lower by 2.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 4.7% above its 200 day moving average of $47.38. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, November 21, 2017 there was some notable buying of 15,475 contracts of the $51.00 call expiring on Friday, December 15, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 5.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.7% move in recent quarters. Costco Wholesale Corp. $188.07 Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, December 14, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.35 per share on revenue of $30.89 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.34 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 73% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 15.38% with revenue increasing by 9.93%. Short interest has increased by 11.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 18.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.8% above its 200 day moving average of $165.30. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, December 4, 2017 there was some notable buying of 5,638 contracts of the $185.00 call expiring on Friday, December 15, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 3.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.6% move in recent quarters. Adobe Systems, Inc. $173.57 Adobe Systems, Inc. (ADBE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, December 14, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.16 per share on revenue of $1.95 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.19 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 85% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of approximately $1.15 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 19.59% with revenue increasing by 21.24%. Short interest has increased by 23.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 14.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 18.2% above its 200 day moving average of $146.82. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, December 8, 2017 there was some notable buying of 3,978 contracts of the $175.00 call expiring on Friday, January 19, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 5.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.1% move in recent quarters. Peregrine Pharmaceuticals Inc. $5.26 Peregrine Pharmaceuticals Inc. (PPHM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:20 AM ET on Monday, December 11, 2017. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.12 per share on revenue of $13.54 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 59% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 500.00% with revenue decreasing by 42.06%. The stock has drifted higher by 65.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.2% above its 200 day moving average of $4.65. Option traders are pricing in a 33.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.6% move in recent quarters. Sanderson Farms Inc. $170.12 Sanderson Farms Inc. (SAFM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:30 AM ET on Thursday, December 14, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $3.62 per share on revenue of $919.12 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 69% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 7.74% with revenue increasing by 16.22%. Short interest has increased by 18.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 17.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 14.0% above its 200 day moving average of $149.29. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, December 5, 2017 there was some notable buying of 532 contracts of the $165.00 put expiring on Friday, December 15, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 5.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.2% move in recent quarters. Liberty Tax, Inc. $11.95 Liberty Tax, Inc. (TAX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Monday, December 11, 2017. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.75 per share on revenue of $7.70 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 61% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 4.17% with revenue increasing by 6.44%. Short interest has increased by 3.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 1.7% from its open following the earnings release. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Caseys General Stores, Inc. $124.81 Caseys General Stores, Inc. (CASY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Monday, December 11, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.38 per share on revenue of $2.13 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.42 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 4.17% with revenue increasing by 10.93%. The stock has drifted higher by 17.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.1% above its 200 day moving average of $110.38. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 6.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.7% move in recent quarters. VeriFone Holdings Inc $18.05 VeriFone Holdings Inc (PAY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, December 12, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.43 per share on revenue of $472.18 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.44 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 63% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of approximately $0.43 per share on revenue of $470.00 million to $473.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 43.33% with revenue increasing by 1.72%. Short interest has increased by 2.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 2.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 4.3% below its 200 day moving average of $18.86. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, December 1, 2017 there was some notable buying of 727 contracts of the $18.00 call expiring on Friday, December 15, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 10.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.0% move in recent quarters. RMR Group Inc. $59.60 RMR Group Inc. (RMR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, December 12, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.36 per share on revenue of $56.92 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 55% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 21.74% with revenue increasing by 1.16%. Short interest has increased by 199.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 23.4% from its open following the earnings release. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Jabil Circuit, Inc. $27.88 Jabil Circuit, Inc. (JBL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, December 14, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.79 per share on revenue of $5.50 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.81 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 60% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.65 to $0.91 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 5.33% with revenue increasing by 7.74%. Short interest has increased by 54.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 2.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.7% below its 200 day moving average of $29.56. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, December 6, 2017 there was some notable buying of 2,064 contracts of the $27.00 put expiring on Friday, January 19, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 6.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.3% move in recent quarters.
New York City police are responding to reports of an explosion at 42nd St. and 8th Ave, subways being evacuated https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/11/new...d-st-and-8th-ave-subways-being-evacuated.html
I missed posting this on Friday but I saw a big bet on LKQ on Friday in the options market. There were 3,000 $35 (in the money) MAR 16 2018 Calls bought at the ask price of 5.60. OI was only 18 so this tells me it is a new position. This morning they announced they are purchasing Stahlgruber in $1.77 bln deal - follow the money
Seems like the market is saying that the tax reform is pretty much a done deal, it will be interesting to see how the market will react when the reform is announced or even more interesting if we have some delay/setback
Democrat Doug Jones is projected as the apparent winner of the Alabama Senate election: NBC News https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/12/dem...-to-win-alabama-senate-election-nbc-news.html Nothing too dramatic but the dollar and the futures moved a little lower after the results.
