A Wyckoff Student Notebook

I recall seeing that video a number of years ago; thanks for posting it. Clearly the markets are manipulated as Wyckoff stated nearly a century ago and showed how to benefit from it.

Here's a Wyckoff bent on FEYE that was discussed on another thread. Apparently FEYE doesn't make money (no P.E. ratio) but maybe they soon will.

Weekly:

 

On a point and figure chart I show a base-count projection to $60 and a stepping-stone (SS) projection to $45. Would have been nice to see $60 for both as there is a possibility this sudden move up and out of the SS range is just upthrust action that could fall back into the range...or not....it could build cause in another re-accumulation range at a higher level.

Daily Vertical Chart: Gray area is a re-accumulation (stepping-stone) range. The base range not shown.

 

Found this audio book online. Not Wyckoff, but of general interest and usefulness non-the-less. Of course I think it is safe to say that all technical analysis has its roots in what Wyckoff taught. This book is by the same Dr. Elder who came up with the 3-time-frame trading system and a group of indicators, e.g., the Elder Force index or something like that. I examined his indicators years ago but did not find them useful for me. This book though does not appear to be about his indicators; it is more general and contains some good information imo.

 

I don't like blindly emailing to somebody with 1 post or participating in pirated intellectual property. Not saying that is your intent but we all have to be wary to keep our integrity intact. If you haven't already sold your materials suggest posting what exactly you have, the legality of reselling it, and how much you want for them.

I'm also reluctant because what I've heard from students of Dr. Dayton, is that much is gained by his personal coaching. Not sure how useful his materials are without that personal interaction.

 

An oldie but a goodie. A deleted interview from 2006 of Jim Cramer splaining how to manipulate the market

 

^ Yep, it does look bearish. A lot of shares have been pushed out to weak hands over the last 2 years. Maybe it'll break down. If so, the current downside PnF count gives 2400 which coincides with an obvious axis line and the ease of movement is down but the volume is lighter so far as it approaches a test of the February low. Next week should be the tell. Either way it'll be a good opportunity to load dry powder.

Weekly S&P E-mini Futures:

 

Okay, heck yeah, I didn't see your count on your chart at first, now I do. So on the high side Jrich has 2370, Rock has 2438 and I have 2400; that's close enough precision. I wasn't convinced it's going to break down out of the range. I guess Rock is saying that would be healthy. Of course if it waits through another cycle up and down, it'll have more cause and go even lower.

Regardless, it's a great time to be a trader and good time to sell volatility. I might actually start to look to selling some puts here and there.

 

I learned recently that there is an ETF that invests in the IBD 50 with ticker FFTY. Comparing it to the SPY it doesn't do any better. However Morningstar at the following link gives the holdings of the ETF which could be useful particularly for the recently added issues.

http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/holdings?t=FFTY

The spreadsheet lists the top 25 holdings. If you click on the "% Portfolio Weight" column title it will give the bottom 25 holdings.

 

This is for Alex10 who asked about a scan using comparative relative strength in the Think or Swim platform.

Stock: Last min: 10.00

Study: Custom (see image below)

Study: Unusual Volume: Current bar's VOLUME increased at least 90% from its typical over 10 periods

Study: Average Volume: The 50 period Simple moving average of the Volume is greater than 250,000

Image of Custom Study (hopefully this is readable, yes it should be if you click on it to enlarge):

 

I ran that scan using daily data for the custom study, the unusual-volume study, and the average-volume study and got 13 results. The only one of those that is even interesting is GES. Since the SPY had a change of character, went from a mark-up phase to a consolidation phase, a lot of the results are not showing what I'm looking for, that is they are not break-outs from an accumulation or re-accumulation trading range. However, they do appear to show the stocks that are holding up better than SPY.

MAG, KRNY, ITG, GES, NXTM, KBH, HOME, HRL, CRH, CAJ, CUK, NHI, MLM

EDIT: MLM, Martin Marietta, is interesting too.

 

Another scan I run looks at a 3-10 oscillator. In this case the MACD is computed with a fast length of 3 days and a slow length of 10 days. The 16-day MA of the MACD is the trigger line. What the scan does is look for the 16-day average to be above the zero line and the 3-10 MACD to cross below the average. This will essentially pick up stocks pulling back from an emerging uptrend. This scan gave 68 results. Only 2 were up this past Fryday. One of those 2 looks good, DSW, some sort of footwear retailer. One of the newly added issues to the IBD50 was SKX, Skechers, (already in my paddock), and then there is GES, Guess, a clothing retailer, showing up on the comparative relative strength scan.

Possible conclusion: Focus on consumer cyclicals as leaders going into the next rotation.