Stopped myself out of both positions. Not liking the initial price action. Might try to re-enter BBT still though. We'll see.
More blood in the water. Expecting indecisiveness now before the markets decide if they want to move higher or continue lower. On the plus side, it is easier for me to outperform the S&P 500 when the markets are negative for the year lol. As for my personal portfolio, I have completed most of my DD for January. Sitting on the sidelines for now in cash and waiting for things to settle down a bit
Finished reviewing my January trades. Gave back some gains but staying afloat. I will likely be posting my goals for February by the end of the weekend. I did some DD for the first time in over a week and none of the charts are very appealing. The only trade I am stalking is CELG at the moment and that is a good day or two away from entry at least. I don't want to risk overtrading or adjusting too much of my strategy but I might loosen my screener criteria so that my swing trades are shorter but I see opportunity developing more quickly after the uncertainty in the market clears. It depends how I feel after looking at the charts extensively over the weekend. I want to say though that a part of me is disappointed that I wasn't short during the volatility, but an even bigger part of me is prouder that I was able to side-step the majority of the bloodbath (thus far anyways). Which shows that I am making progress.
No dice with the QQQ trade. Still have a short bias but it is slowly evaporating. Here is another trade that I am watching short though: Digging this additional patience I seem to have developed recently fwiw.
ABBV Trade type: Ascending triangle. Entry & Stop Placement: Stop placed near the $70 level. It has been somewhat of a support-turned-resistance area in the past: Target stock price: $121.44 (or wherever Reward is 3x Risk) Concerns Entering on a triangle... is it supposed to take place at the break outside of the triangle or perhaps the mid-point of the triangle? I need to review this. Also, I am concerned that the entry is too near the closing price so that it could trigger my order without actually moving higher. With that said, I set an order that won't go live for the first 30 minutes of the trading day so that gives me some time. Also, I am concerned about the heavy volume in the triangle. It feels like it is more uncertainty than pure consolidation Positives Pretty clean ascending triangle. Markets are volatile so it can really get going. Target price is at a potential resistance level so it might drift higher even if there is lower volume. Set-up Grade B (I am not certain in the entry level) I am also very interested in MU
TastyTrade updated their platform for the first time in 3 months and..... ... still no contingency orders. D'oh. I reached out to Support and they said the engineers are planning on it but no ETA as of yet. Ahh well. I reached out to e*trade to see if they were planning to add a 'Time' option to contingency orders but no dice. My old ThinkOrSwim account still has it though so I am using the funds in that account for my current position: Got filled in ABBV. Unsure what happened in the last few minutes but it gapped up ~1%: On an unrelated note. I received my bi-annual bonus. Looking to put most of it towards my trading accounts.
ZION Trade type: Ascending triangle. Entry & Stop Placement: Stop placed near the $70 level. It has been somewhat of a support-turned-resistance area in the past: Target stock price: $57.60 (or wherever Reward is 3x Risk) Concerns The markets might need some time to catch it breath after the price action in the last two weeks. Positives The SPY hasn't retraced its losses but many stock on my watchlist are showing strength such a this. A false move lower can lead to a fast move higher. It has above average short interest. With last week's sell off being faded and prices multi-year highs yet again, Bears will have to think about covering their positions which can push prices even higher still. Set-up Grade A (I wish the Moving Average were a little closer so that there was no chance of people thinking it was extended) C Trade type: Bullish price action Entry & Stop Placement: Entry placed above today's high with a stop below today's low: Target stock price: $80.89 (or wherever Reward is 3x Risk) Concerns Positives Moving Averages shows Bulls are firmly in control again as does the VWAP. Set-up Grade B+ (No pattern here but falls in line with what I know trading wise) APC Trade type: Ascending triangle Entry & Stop Placement: Entry placed above the resistance level that was also prior support earlier in the month: Target stock price: $63.88 (or wherever Reward is 3x Risk) Concerns Potential supply around $61-61.50 Positives Tight range in the last day and a half. Set-up Grade A (No pattern here but falls in line with what I know trading wise) Side Note Still stalking MU. I liked the price action and the close today and I had an order set to enter it tomorrow but I think I would be doing too much to jump in after it was up +1% tomorrow which is where I would place an entry:
Played this one a little too conservatively and didn't get involved but digging the analysis and consequent price action: Don't want to get ahead of myself but I feel like I am starting to see the forest for the trees...
Lol right. I actually copied and saved my canceled order since the price action is still interesting:
Mid-Quarter Review:Stats Premature Exits that negatively affected profits: 3 Trap/Gap & Fade trades: 2 Perfectly managed trades: 2 Trades with a failing grade: 1 Percentage of trades that were profitable: 27% Average winning trade: 2.09R Average losing trade: 0.95R Takeaways I was nervous about a market correction and cut a lot of trades short and my winners were not as big as I am used to. A few times, the positions I stopped myself out of prematurely quickly rallied in my direction. In the future, I want to lower my risk/position sizing if I am nervous about a correction instead of trading from a position of fear. I had more trades where I exited prematurely than trades that I managed perfectly. That is a goal I will tackle for the rest of the year. My percentage of successful trades dropped. I think this is temporary though and that it was the effect of a volatile market and me still refining my skillset. I was filled within the first 30 minutes which led to a stop out for two trades. I have created a rule to only enter trades after the initial 30 minutes so those are two less mistakes I have to worry about in the future. Update on 2018 Follow Ups Statistics I am interested in how even random price action is often partially predictable based on probabilities Haven't dedicated much time to this yet. I did purchase a popular book on Technical Analysis and will pay closer attention to things like Fibonacci retracements and the likes before delving into more theoretical topics Price action trading: I want to supplement my current trading strategy with a better understanding of price action outside of pattern recognition I started executing price action trading a bit in my trading but realized that I was exiting trades prematurely and afraid to fully accept risk as a result. I have tweaked things a little bit since then but overall I am becoming a better trader when it comes to watching price action. I can brush up on my candlestick reading a bit more though Increasing the size of Option Spreads: Currently I don't use a lot of size for Calendar spreads or Vertical Spreads. Once I become more confident in these strategies, I would like to increase my size so that they have similar capital allocated as my single leg positions. I have become more comfortable with Option Spreads. Volatility in the market appears to be settling down again so I may need to shift away from calendar spreads in the short term Trading within a neutral/bearish market: There is nothing to suggest that 2018 will be Neutral/Bearish but the Bull market cannot last forever. I want to stay ready so I don't have to get ready. I think I learned a bit during the period leading up to the market correction. One of the main takeaways was that I should be reducing size during times of increased volatility, NOT cutting positions off prematurely. I think that less directional bets such as calendar spreads may be a way forward. Still some work to do in this aspect though. Swing-trading Futures contracts: I think that Futures trading has the most amount of people trading for a living. I want to create a better understanding of the Futures markets to see if I want to head in that direction. Did a bit of reading so far in 2018 but there has been no concentrated effort to trade futures. In terms of day trading, it seems like a viable option but when it comes to swing trading, it seems like stop size would make opportunities seem scarce. I do like the tax benefits though so I will keep an eye on it as an area for growth when I am better capitalized. Personal trading psychology: I feel like I was pretty level-headed in 2017 but I did stress a few positions going against me. Also, I found myself 'wishing' that the markets would go in my direction which means I was exposing myself to bias often. I am going to dust off and reread my copy of Trading in the Zone to nip this in the bud. I have made a lot of progress in this aspect. I reread (or rather listened) to Trading In The Zone again via a free 30 day Audible trial. Additionally, I am tackling a book on habit formations that will have a positive impact on my trading as well. Trading on/around Earnings Reports: I have avoided Earnings Reports thus far but I want to delve into strategies that capitalize off of the volatility. A lot of my Calendar Spreads in 2018 were Earnings Report trades. The market sell off happened right during/before multiple Earnings Report so I liquidated all of my positions, but the potential is there. The speculative trade on SNAP would have resulted in a +12R trade which can make an entire quarter for me trading wise. Newly Formed Rules No more entries prior to 9am: I realized when reviewing my trades that a lot of positions were executed when a gap was faded. If a chart interests me leading into the open, I will use my ThinkOrSwim account (that has the ability to add a timestamp to contingency orders). After 9am has passed, any trades I am watching, I can execute it in my regular e*Trade account. Review all the trades I made for the entire quarter at the end of the quarter: I have to review my trading as a whole occasionally so that I can reflect on the impact on the changes in my strategy and hopefully put the progress I have made in a large, meaningful context. Document the reasoning/thought process behind exits as they happen: I want to understanding the reasoning behind each exit so that I can objectively analyze it at a later date.
New Quarterly Goals Set S.M.A.R.T. goals for February: Revised all of the goals below so that they spell out what success looks like Create hard rules for entering symmetrical triangles and pull backs. I am sure of myself when it comes to ascending triangle but I am trigger happy/trigger shy when it comes to symmetrical triangles. I need to dictate a clear sign for entry and stick to it. Number perfectly managed trades > Number of trading errors: Irrespective of P&L Review trading goals for 2018: Completed Create shorter timeframe screener that follows your regular trading beliefs: Self-explanatory (Continue to) Grade set ups before and after each trade: Once I can objectively say what my A+ setups are, I can start to increase position sizing for the highest probability trades. This a big stepping stone towards consistent profitability. (The idea was derived from Mike Bellafiore over @ SMB Capital fyi) Set Price Alerts for ETF charts: Great ETF charts usually mean increased strength throughout most of a sector. I will set alerts for all main ETFs and when they trigger I can pay more attention to specific stock. (Continue to) account for Short Interest where possible: Increased likelihood of a squeeze = higher probability of a large move. I have started adding Days to Cover to my stock Screener results to try and tip the scales in my favor a bit more. Spell out your trading strategies in a more transparent manner: In retrospect, much of the journal is a way to give the squeaky wheel the grease and then listen for more squeakiness elsewhere. So far so good and I want to keep on keeping on. Existing 2018 Goals Yesterday I officially purchased an annual TradingView pass. It felt good cashing in on a reward that I earned. Here is where I stand with my Reward-related Goals: Level 1 Review my 2017 Trading Year: Completed Invest 45% of my paycheck into my trading account on a monthly basis: So far so good! Actually ahead of schedule since I received an unexpected bonus and deposited that as well. Lower commission costs: I reached out to e*Trade to get my rates lowered and they didn't budge. My next option is to move my accounts to TastyTrade. I have opened a Roth IRA account as well as an regular trading account but I won't fund the accounts until contingency orders are available since it is pivotal in allowing me to semi-automate my trading strategy and take emotions out of my trades. I have done all that is possible at this point so I am content with the situation for the time being. Surround myself with excellence: Various trading podcasts and successful traders on Social media have reinforced the idea that trading for a living is an attainable goal with enough practice. I haven't felt this confident in the possibilities of trading since I first started watching the markets. It really is powerful having consistent access to people who 'made it' and seeing their thought processes/strategies. Level 2 Outperform the S&P 500 in a Quarter: On track to do so. Win 40% of my trades in 2018: I have some ground to make up but I am making progress Increase the expectancy of winning trades to 2.5R: I am still at 2.06R. Slow and steady wins the race though. +50% return: Optimistic but we shall see. Have a 5R Trade: Came close with TXT Level 3 Increase my Portfolio Value by 150%: Ongoing Average 10% per month in returns: Achieved in January, appears less likely in February and I'm OK with that. Outperform the S&P 500 Annually: Ongoing but so far so good Have a 10R trade: Definitely possible. Just need to work on letting my winners run 2018 Long Term Rewards Level 1 Renew my subscription to my favorite trader's regular market analysis Purchase a table for my apartment Level 2 Purchase a two-year subscription to the Pro level of TradingView Telephoto camera lens Level 3 Buy a flagship laptop Buy a flagship phone Move into a more expensive apartment Trade full-time?
NFLX Trade type: Consolidation potentially leading to a higher high: Entry & Stop Placement: Entry placed above the highest close in the last +15 days. Stop is placed near the recent lows. Target stock price: $293.4 (or wherever Reward is 3x Risk) Concerns One of the largest price per shares that I have ever traded. If liquidity dries up on a big move lower, I may get dinged. Positives Has been in a trading range for the last 1.5 days. Might get moving higher in a hurry. Set-up Grade B+ (I widened my stop because I am risking a bit more than I typically do because the price per share is so large) PYPL Trade type: Ascending triangle Entry & Stop Placement: Entry placed above area that looks like potential resistance, stop is below a few higher lows: Target stock price: $82.57 (or wherever Reward is 3x Risk) Concerns No real concerns that I can see. Gotta let the cards fall where the may Positives If PYPL clears $80, I think it can run unimpeded to $84 potentially. Set-up Grade A (Possible resistance @ $79.50 and 80.10 is stopping it from being an A+ trade) MU Trade type: Pullback to resistance-turned-support Entry & Stop Placement: Entry at prior resistance Target stock price: $46.39 (or wherever Reward is 3x Risk) Concerns This isn't a contingency order trade. I want to watch price action, maybe throw VWAP in there and jump in if/when Bulls regain control. Positives Very very clear line in the sand with the resistance-turned-support so I like my odds Set-up Grade A+ (Definitely a degree of difficulty in terms of the timing window though)
