Dropped through support yesterday, but this has always been a good long-term hold for dividends. In yesterday at $10.26. Best case, it recovers fairly quickly for a 25%+ gain, worst case I hold it for awhile for dividends and wait for the inevitable return to the $12's or higher.
I thought about Ford for a scalp, but it came into this support on increasing volume on a daily and longer term basis. Eventually $9, or maybe lower, looks probable....almost like a divvy reduction is coming. Don't know, so I'm passing on it for now. But yeah that 6% dividend is tempting. Is there a chance they'll be reducing it? If they do that'll tank the price. Monthly Chart: Monthly Chart:
Held the second support line, and re-gained the first today. Up over 2% on the day. Bearish crossover of the MA's is hopefully representative of the drop we already have seen last week, and not indicative of what's to come. Only news I saw today was a temporary layoff at one of the plants in Michigan for a re-tooling of the plant, and a speculative article in regards to potential steel tariffs. Still confident in the dividend, even if we don't see a huge increase in the share price in the near future.
I'm sorry I missed the sub-10.20 opportunity. I was off the grid with no internet all last week and dared not set any orders. I think it might stick in this 10 - 11 range a few more weeks and I may try to get some shares under 10.40 for a quickie swing trade.
Currently up 4% on my position so far. This is a much longer term trade than most that I'm in right now. Targeting the mid 12's. Until then, I'll just be collecting on dividends.
Technically, bullish crossover in MACD and Stochastic oscillator and RSI(14) stands at 46.73 with positive bias.
Whelp, it's built enough cause on the 25-cent by 1-box-reversal point and figure to effect a price rise to $12, if it can break higher out of this trading range. However, since it came into this trading range from weakness I'd expect it to show a sign of strength (SOS) either prior or on the break. Instead it is laboring to make the little upward progress that it has. Today the volume increased 23% from Fryday and its range was only 1 penny more...that is not positive as it took more effort to affect nearly the same result and that tells me supply is increasing. Of course once the supply overcomes demand the price will fall. So, assuming the trading range is a re-distribution range and that it will tag $11 on this up-wave, then it will have enough cause on the 25-cent by 1-box-reversal point and figure to affect a decline to $9. It won't need to show a sign of weakness (SOW) because weakness has already proven itself; weakness is in the background; trend rules, so it can just drift lower on low volume. $9 would be a retest of the demand line of the long-term trading range. Bottom line - bulls need it to show an SOS sometime soon; a big greeny with big volume. Disclosure: I am not holding as I elected to wait for $9.
Upgrade by Morgan Stanley: Investment banker Morgan Stanley made a pretty shocking pronouncement this morning. After crunching the numbers over Ford's F-150 pickup truck sales, the analyst concluded that Ford's F-150 business alone is worth more than the entire Ford Motor Company is selling for these days. So did the back-office traders sell and sell short into the front-office's upgrade? Was this move a sign of strength (SOS) or an upthrust after distribution (UTAD)? I can wait and see. If it is a UTAD, then the 25-cent-box by 1-box-reversal point and figure now gives a downside target of 9.25. If it can find support at 10.75 then the upside would be 13. 4-hour sticks:
Bumping up against resistance at the 200MA again. Currently up over 12% on my position. Considering closing it, or closing half to protect some profits. Originally had a target of $12.53 though.
Getting pretty damn close to my target here. Up over 18% on my position. Might close it out a little ahead of my target price to lock in profit and avoiding a dip due to greed.
If this doesn't hold the 50MA, I'll probably sell it for a nice gain of about 12%. Will watch it closely the rest of this week.
Normally I'd agree that Ford is at a nice attractive entry point right now. Problem is, part of the reason the price is down is due to the threat of imposing tariff's on cars in this trade war. It's down on the threat and if they actually get imposed it will impact stock price even more. While Ford has been consistent of late with it's dividend, they have also shown in the past that they will cut the dividend if they get in trouble. So, that would again drop the price even more. I personally think that Ford along with most other auto stocks are in a higher risk basket then many other stocks one could put their money into right now. The deal struck with EU while encouraging is far from done and tensions could ratchet up with them again. Then there is China which I think we will deepen the trade war with them. I do not have a high aggressive risk profile myself so keep in mind my opinion is based on my low risk profile.
Bought first chunk of Ford just now at 9.59 will continue to add every week. As a 22 year it seems this will pay off long term with such a high dividend. I always remember TTT saying this was his largest position as well.
