Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of April 9th! This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: Major Indices End of Week: Bird's Eye view of the Major Futures Markets on Friday: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD: What to Watch in the Week Ahead: Tuesday Earnings: MSC Indusrial 6:00 a.m. NFIB survey 8:30 a.m. PPI 10:00 a.m. Wholesale trade Wednesday Earnings: Bed Bath and Beyond, Fastenal 8:30 a.m. CPI 2 p.m. Federal budget 2 p.m. FOMC meeting minutes Thursday Earnings: BlackRock, Delta Air Lines, Rite Aid, Agogee, Bank of the Ozarks 8:30 a.m. Jobless claims 8:30 a.m. Import prices Friday Earnings: Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, First Republic, PNC Financial Services Group, First Horizon 7:30 a.m. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren 9:00 a.m. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard 10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment 10:00 a.m. JOLTS
Market Volatility Jumps To 7 Year High As Global Economic Data Slumps "There could be some fluctuations in stock market values as a result of the China trade dispute..." - The White House Cliff... For the first time since July, the global macro data surprise index has turned negative... It was quite a week with massive swings pushing realized volatility to its highest since 2011... Futures show the equity market swings best as many out of cash session hours... But the cash markets all ended red on the week... As Gluskin-Sheff's David Rosenberg notes, barely over 3 months into the year and already no fewer than 22 sessions with intra-day moves in the Dow of 400+ points. We had 1 all of last year. The only other time in the past have we seen so many 400 point moves bunched into such a short period -- Oct 2008 to Jan 2009. The Dow retraced 61.8% Fib of its Wednesday panic-bid... then rebounded back to 50%... The S&P traded down to its 200DMA once again... Trannies tumbled to their 200DMA - today was their worst day since Brexit (2016) All major index vols jumped on the week after collapsing on Wednesday... All major US equity indices went red for the year again... Tech and Financials tumbled back into the red for the week today... All the FANGMAN stocks ended red on the week... TSLA stocks and bonds squeezed higher this week but stocks over-ran bonds... Treasury yields ended the week marginally higher but tumbled today as bonds were bid when stocks tanked... 10Y yields dropped back below 2.80% once again... Despite weakness today, the dollar index ended the week higher... Crude tumbled on the week as Copper and PMs largely trod water... Cryptos ended the week lower once again (despite a solid jump early in the week)... Finally, don't forget, there was a Black Friday before Black Monday...
Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2018- S&P sectors for the past week-
Worst Two Consecutive Quarter Span of 4-Year Cycle Precedes Best Span Since 1949 the second and third quarters of midterm election years have averaged losses of 1.8% for DJIA, 2.2% for S&P 500 and 6.7% since 1971 for NASDAQ. But this weakness is followed by the sweet spot of the 4-year cycle and the “Midterm Year Bottom Picker’s Paradise.” The “sweet spot” of the 4-year cycle is the 3-quarter span from Q4 midterm year to Q2 pre-election year. Since 1949, market gains from the fourth quarter of midterm year to the second quarter of the pre-election year have averaged +20.4% for DJIA, +21.1% for S&P 500 and +32.0% since 1971 for NASDAQ. April’s Trading Pattern: Bulk of Gains Typically Materialize in Second Half As of today’s close, the third trading day of April, DJIA is up 0.7%. S&P 500, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 are also higher by 0.1%. Even after today’s solid 1.45% gain, NASDAQ is still down 0.3%. Compared to April’s average performance over the last 21-years, DJIA is the only index in line with historical performance while S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 are all lagging. Looking ahead, sideways and choppy trading are likely from now until around mid-month. At which point, earnings season is generally underway and results and guidance typically propel stocks higher into month’s end. Up Twelve in a Row, But Softer in Midterm Years April marks the end of our “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. On April 2, we will begin looking for our seasonal MACD sell signal and corresponding early signs of seasonal weakness. The “Worst Months” have been more pronounced in past midterm years. April 1999 was the first month to gain 1000 DJIA points. However, from 2000 to 2005, “Tax” month was hit, declining in four of six years. Since 2006, April has been up twelve years in a row with an average gain of 2.5% to reclaim its position as the best DJIA month since 1950. April is third best for S&P (since 1950) and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971). The first half of April used to outperform the second half but since 1994 that has no longer been the case. The effect of April 15 Tax Deadline appears to be diminished. Traders and investors are clearly focused on first quarter earnings during April. Exceptional Q1 earnings and positive surprises tend to be anticipated with stocks and the market moving up in advance of the announcements and consolidating or correcting afterwards. Typical midterm-election year woes do temper April’s performance since 1950. April is DJIA’s and S&P 500’s seventh best month in midterm-election years, up 11 of the last 17. For NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000, April is the sixth best month in midterm years. S&P 500 Average Daily Move Tops 1% Apr 5, 2018 Last Monday we published a Think B.I.G. post noting that the S&P 500’s 50-day average daily change had ticked up to +/-0.92%. Given that every day so far in April has seen a 1%+ move and that nine of the last ten trading days have seen 1%+ moves, it’s no surprise that the reading has ticked up over 1% at this point. Over the last 50 trading days, the S&P 500’s average daily change has been +/-1.04%. Remember that just a few months ago, this reading had ticked all the way down to +/-0.22%, and a 1% move was pretty much unheard of. Now it’s very uncommon for the S&P not to close up or down at least 1%. At some point, all of this daily volatility will settle down again, but until it does, traders that for years were painfully dealing with low vol can now rejoice. Bullish April Seasonality Not Until Second Half of Month Apr 3, 2018 April has historically been one of the strongest months of the year for the stock market. Recently, though, the gains have all come in the second half of the month once Tax Day (April 15th) passes. You can clearly identify this trend using our Stock Seasonality tool, which is available to Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Institutional clients. We ran a screen to find the median change of S&P 500 sectors over the last 12 years from April 2nd through April 15th, which generated the chart below. As shown, the S&P 500 has seen a median decline of 0.70% during this time frame, while just two of eleven sectors have posted median gains. When we run the same screen but look at the period from April 15th through April 30th, the chart below shows that the S&P 500 has seen a median change of +2.13%. All eleven sectors have posted median gains, and four sectors have gained more than 2% (Cons. Discret., Tech, Industrials, and Real Estate). Clearly the back half of April has been much stronger than the front half in recent years. Start using our Stock Seasonality Tool now with a free trial to Bespoke Premium or Bespoke Institutional. 1% Swings Surge Apr 3, 2018 While the S&P 500 futures market occupied a relatively narrow range overnight, now that the US is trading there have been some more big swings intraday. After trading up at the open, stocks lost almost 1% through mid-morning lows. They then rallied more than 1.1% and have since pulled back again. That kind of intraday volatility is also met with closing price volatility. The VIX has been around 20 over the past few weeks, and we’ve been seeing a lot more 1% swings. In the chart below, we show the share of days where the S&P 500 either fell or rose by 1% over the past 3 months. From December 8th to January 25th, that rolling 3 month measure was zero…not a single 1% day! Over the last few months, though, the share of 1% days has rocketed higher. Currently, 38% of trading days over the past 3 months have been 1% moves. Only periods of volatility right at the start of the bull market, early 2010, mid 2011, and early 2016 saw higher shares of days with 1% or greater moves.
Stock Market Analysis Video for April 6th 2018 Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon (VIDEO NOT YET UP!) ShadowTrader Video Weekly 4.8.18 Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 4.6.18- Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices- ...and here are the rally levels from current prices-
Here are the most anticipated ERs for this upcoming week ahead (I'll also have the weekly earnings calendar posted in here as well once it's out) ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time*** Monday 4.9.18 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE. Monday 4.9.18 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE. Tuesday 4.10.18 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 4.10.18 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 4.11.18 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 4.11.18 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 4.12.18 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 4.12.18 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE. Friday 4.13.18 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 4.13.18 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE.
Stockaholics come join us on our stock market challenge threads for this upcoming trading week ahead!- ======================================================================================================== Stockaholics Daily Stock Pick Challenge & SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (4/9) <-- click there to cast your daily market vote and stock pick! Stockaholics Weekly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll (4/9-4/13) <-- click there to cast your weekly market vote and stock picks! ======================================================================================================== And finally, we have our mystery chart challenge now up as well! Weekly Mystery Chart & Technical Analysis Challenge (4/9-4/13) <-- click there to participate! ======================================================================================================== It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these! I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!
And as promised here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead- ($JPM $C $RAD $WFC $DAL $BLK $BBBY $FAST $MSM $PNC $OZRK $APOG $SMPL $FRC $FHN $INFY $SLP $CBSH $SJR $EXFO $LAYN $NTIC$TISA $DPW $HQCL $DGLY) If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here- Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning April 9th, 2018 <-- click there to view!
I wonder if China will do something like.... 1) Push Chinese nationals to take their money out of foreign investments such as real estate. Try to destabilize the housing market again. And if Chinese (read: educated Chinese engineers and such) don't have homes overseas, they won't live overseas, thus come back to the mother land. 2) Start selling a ton of the US debt they own, at the same time that the Fed is busy selling its own debt that it accrued during QE. A couple of huge sellers at the same time could invert the yield curve.
I've been reading a lot of econ opinion pieces this weekend that suggest the same thing. Almost to the point that I would be surprised if China did not. The only thing is, they own so much US debt and so much of their own economy is tied to owning that debt that they risk devaluing a key component of their own economy without some compensatory measures elsewhere, like devaluing their own currency which, in turn, would lower the price of their own exports and help offset the US tariffs. So many moving parts! I kind of think both US and China have so many alternative moves they could make that when the dust settles, all the machinations will leave us pretty close to where we were before the tariffs were announced, but with more regulatory compliance paperwork for both sides to adhere to. Which is probably why the markets are having a hard time pricing the risk in all this.
No response from China yet? Wonder if they're going to do the same as Donnie - right before our markets open?
Oh they will hit when its going to give maximum effect. I think we all know the game by now, Trump will make bit threats and then "negotiate" a better deal, but what happens between the time of the threat and the magical negotiation could put lots of farmers out of business.
spx cant get past the 8 ema? micron cant reclaim the 50 day? welp, back to selling calls it is. ill keep selling weekly calls until the market proves otherwise.
