Here Comes Friday the 13th! Posted by lplresearch Tomorrow will be the first Friday the 13th in April since 2012. The S&P 500 Index actually dropped 1.25% on that day, which ranks as the worst drop on any Friday the 13th going back 15 years! Of course, this is also a big day if you are unfortunate enough to suffer from triskaidekaphobia—the fear of the number 13. In case it helps with your next game of Trivial Pursuit, a fear of the actual day of Friday the 13th is called paraskevidekatriaphobia or friggatriskaidekaphobia. (Try pronouncing those words.) But does this fateful day really mean anything? The table below shows how the S&P 500 has performed historically each day of the week. But Monday’s status as the worst day of the week for the index (by far) is really no surprise since generally speaking, no one likes Monday. Since 1928*, there have been 153 instances of Friday the 13th; and wouldn’t you know it, the S&P 500 does a worse on average with an annualized 4.2% gain versus 13.0% for all Fridays. Comparing the daily performance in the chart of the day below, the index’s average return on Friday the 13th is notably below the median, which tells us that the average is skewed by some rather large drops. Breaking it down by month, this is only the 11th Friday the 13th during the month of April since 1928, which is the least out of any month. Although the S&P 500 was down big back in 2012, the good news is that stocks still sport an overall gain over the previous 10 Friday the 13th’s in April. Per Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist, “Unless you break a mirror or see a black cat on Friday, we aren’t in any way saying one day matters more or less than another. Still, wouldn’t you know it— Friday the 13th tends to be a weak day on average, spooky indeed!” Have a great Friday the 13th, everyone!
cross-posting this from the earnings results thread. looks like earnings season is off to a good start with beats across the board.
Gold took off again on the China tariff article... White House reportedly to increase trade pressure on China through new tariffs, investment barriers
I still think the SPX will test that 2700 level at some point--not so much my theory as my sense of what is likely to happen because much of the technical patterns no longer show 2700 as a must area to hit--just one left, actually . But I can exit at 2680 at break even because I averaged in. I am seriously thinking about exiting at that point and creating a fresh start. There might be more opportunities to profit, if I do that--especially if the price is going to remain range bound around this 2590 to 2680 area for some time.
Not much volume. I want either 2680 to 2700 or around 2590 to 2620. Those are levels to either exit for risk management or entry points for a new long.
I mentioned up to 2650 is an attractive buy zone. Above 2650 is a zone where more buying could happen, exiting for risk management or profit taking could happen, etc.--it's a more ambiguous zone. Based on that, I mentioned either 1. exiting at the 2700 level for profit taking; 2. exiting at the 2680 level at break even; 3. entering at around 2600 or 2620 for another run at or above the 2650 level. This is simply my basic method of thinking of how to trade in this environment
The choice here is whether I want to be an investor or a trader. If I want to be an investor, I don't exit at 2680 or even at 2710 because the price is highly likely to go beyond that, in time. But, if I want to be a trader, I exit at break even, if possible, and then look for opportunities to really profit. If so, I break even at 2680 and look for new opportunities in this elastic, volatile--yet range bound environment
I think the market won't hit bottom til August, which then leads me to think we won't break out til after then. Listening to @Frankenstein, I agree with his price levels. But I think also having time considerations, it would be better to be a trader in this environment if your only metric for determining "better" is profits (some others may also be concerned with effort). It could be months until an investor sees gains from the index.
i haven't done up one of these in a while ... this is just a scenario i like playing around with every time the market goes through a correction. this is simply comparing the previous market correction with the current. i did this back during the 2015-16 correction and it was interested to me how similar the move played out from the prior correction. it will be really interesting to see if history were to repeat itself once again here. the top chart is a weekly from 2015-16 (our last meaningful market correction). bottom chart is our current weekly YTD with a drawing of the last correction put in. this scenario basically doesn't have the market bottoming out until around late summer (my drawing also has around August like Marcy which is kind of interesting to me haha). but it doesn't just zoom right back up to ATHs ... it would be choppy until about EOY when we could be challenging the year's highs, and then the resumption of the bull uptrend again by next year. just take this with a grain of salt of course. doesn't mean it will happen ... it's just a scenario i could potentially see playing out if we were to do a repeat of the past correction. it's kind of fun to play around with these. let's see what happens.
Not much volume today. Range bound within the intra day. Suggests that next week that test of the 2700 could actually take place--but we'll have to see what happens EOD, since the broader range is in play
The 100 MA is at around 2700--one could argue that the price is actually ranging between the 100 MA and the 200 MA on the daily chart. If so, 2700 is in play
Furthering my previous comment's last sentence: it looks like we can get over 2700 up to 2800 soon. But I don't think it'll hold up there. Interesting chart @bigbear0083
