We're seeing that no matter how strong the correlation between earnings and stock prices, they do not move one-to-one. Would not be impossible to see a disconnect for a couple months. Just as long as we stay out of a trade war...
And so it goes...this is typical range bound behavior. But, a test of 2670 is virtually inevitable, according to my theory
sure looks like a BS downside move to hit stop losses... no reasoning behind it that I can see other than yields @ 3%...is that really going to kill us?....wtf
Still over 50 bps to the 2yr, so it can't be that bad! ...but this was about the same level as the selling frenzy in Feb. for what that's worth... I hatched an Iron Condor on CAT at about 10:30am, took an adjustment on the first day. Ouch! Edit: An ouch that I very much deserved...I put that trade on using mobile, looking it over later I see I sold that I.C. in a IV pit...didn't see that conference call was incoming either, probly gonna scrap this trade asap since i sold the IV for .27 instead of .34 right after....
Good Wednesday morning to all. Here is the pre-market thread for those wanting to get a quick read in before today's open- <-- click there to read! I hope everyone has a great trading day ahead today!
My theory says buying anywhere between 2600 to 2620 is solid because the price should go back up to test that 2670 level
no common sense in the market right now, twtr should be heading towards all time highs, not back to ipo price, lol.
I've seen better lloking charts in my life. Doesnt look very healthy to me. Looks like me (some years ago...) at sunday morning, after some heavy party...
Today I was noting also somenthing unsual: USA 10 years bonds yield are above 3%, while portuguese bonds same matury presente na yield around 1,7% !!! I think USD will rise against EURO, and in short term money will flow from stock market to bonds.
I heard that since Europe and Japan are still doing QE, that will anchor the 30-year yields. Meanwhile the short-term rates will be going up, so if that holds true we will see flattening yield curve. Assuming that, it's not strange to see how weak the banks have been. I imagine the Fed tries to talk up hawkishness (booming economy wow!) to somehow affect the long-term rates too.
good call on that black gold from the other day @OldFart $69 looks to be a brick wall. still thinking we'll get the 70 print in for the round # enthusiasts (*cough* nowwhat *cough*) but don't think it'll hold unless we see some mideast shenanigans...
