Time for a June Swoon? U.S. equities advanced in May to extend their win streak during the month to six years, but can the summer rally continue? First things first, historically June has been a stumbling block for stocks. June has been one of the weakest months for the S&P 500 Index—over the past 10 years, only January sported a weaker average return. Although June could potentially provide some volatility, we would continue to be a buyer amid any equity weakness. “One of the main reasons we don’t expect a major June sell-off in 2018 is because under the surface, small cap indexes are leading, which is very encouraging. With the Russell 2000 Index making new highs, we believe this could be a signal that new highs for large cap stock indexes may likely follow later this year,” said Ryan Detrick, LPL Research Senior Market Strategist. So, as we close out May, small caps (and the Nasdaq) have led so far in 2018, both gaining roughly 8% year to date, while the S&P 500 was up less than 2%. Although that’s a large disparity, it’s actually quite normal. Since 1950,* there have been 24 years in which the S&P 500 gained 15% or more, and the index has posted year-to-date gains of only 2% on average through the end of May the following year. In other words, some type of consolidation early in the year after strong gains is normal. Taking it a step further, when the S&P 500 has been up between 0% and 5% by the end of May, i.e., advancing modestly, the following seven months (the rest of the year) were up 6.8% on average. This is well above the overall 3.8% average return for the latter seven months of the year. With the benefits of fiscal policy, still benign inflation, and strong corporate earnings, as mentioned in Outlook 2018: Return of the Business Cycle, we continue to expect stock indexes to gain 10% when all is said and done in 2018.
here are the percentage changes for the major indices for the week, month, quarter, and year as we closed out the trading month of may today- russ2k strong like bull this month!
Nice pop on futures for the jobs report...let's see if it holds after the open with all the tariff talk...
only thing that would derail this is one of these... Spoiler: Click to Show! welcome to june! markets starting off this month much like last month did...june historically does start off strong, but then volatility kicks in...we'll see if history were to repeat again this year. here's the chart i had posted in here yesterday- june market performance over the past 20 years.
Anyone playing cancer stocks with ASCO conference going on this weekend? I saw a thread about GERN. JAZZ looking strong here.
I remember I bought $5 leaps for GERN back in 2015, when I was reading all the headlines . Back then it was $3, and went up to $5.30 but I got greedy besides the newswriters weren't telling me to sell lol . Ended up going down to $2, man that thing dropped fast. Hope your calls work out better, a couple months ago was the largest monthly volume traded in the history of GERN. If this thing drops again...
https://twitter.com/Acosta/status/1002623986558226432 After announcing summit is back on, Trump just said he hasn't looked at the letter from Kim Jong Un delivered today: "I may be in for a big surprise folks."
Well good start for the market in a new month I guess the market was in a sweet spot to celebrate a strong jobs report since 10 year yields got pushed well below of 3% on Italy fear few days ago. If 10 year yields were already trading well above 3% then it could be a very different story today for the stock market
Haha not really, I don’t play biotech that much anymore. Now I usually just play around big boys like AMGN, GILD, and CELG, etc. Maybe I should do some research, any company has some potential blockbuster drug?
