AMD - Advanced Micro Devices, Inc

This one's going a lot higher than the 15's IMO. Last year's volume profile bell curve was very bullish. Upper end of the curve is at 15.60, which is being tested now.

 

I agree with Rock. That move coming off the fake break of the low below $10 triggered a spring-effect on the stock enough to help it break past current resistance. $14.19 is key. If it holds its got 20s written all over it. May buy some AMD on top of the long DIS, short FXE trades I am going to place soon.

 

Sold half of my shares today at the previous 52-wk high and will ride the rest till my retirement.

Still holding half of my JAN 18 2019 $15 calls in case there is more upside.

 

No doubt ..... ye ol' Wyckoff "Spring" action.

I just figured there would be a brief pause on this rocket ascent from the 9's to 15' beforehand, but it hasn't happened and I hate chasing something that's been on a near 100% move.

 

Got no issues with that. It's called prudence.

Regardless I'm just relaying what the chart is telling. This move from 9 to 15 was symbolic of no supply remaining and MM's starting the next mark up phase. That's why it was up for 9 straight weeks (see second chart).

The first chart is a monthly and is indicative of a classic Wyckoff accumulation/distribution model. Notice the Spring and then a re-test of the "creek" for support. It ran into some slight resistance in the 15's, which is POC (point of control) during a brief period in 2007. Take notice of recent candles in 2018 - the up moves are easier (wide spread) and the down moves took multiple candles.

 

I'm hopeful we'll see a 50% retracement back down to the preliminary supply line (PSY @12.42) which will mark the Last Point of Supply (LPS) and the 2nd best buy point and give a point & figure price objective of $45.50.

Weekly chart as of Thursday's close:

 

I would love that price, but right now I have $13.50 marked at a re-test of the breakout from the VAH (Value Area High).

 

Todays AM dip down to $14.33 came a just a hair shy of the re-test of the all important $14.20 support line. The stock will need to base here for a few days before it trends higher. I would look to get in on a successful re-test of $14.20 -- meaning no back to back weekly close below this mark -- or on a confirmed break of the 52-week high above $15.78.

Markets never make it easy. Trades that feel the most uncomfortable are often the ones that pay the best. Good news -- not much supply to work through above $15.78. Bad news -- as supply wanes the trade gets too crowded.

 

After reviewing the chart I posted earlier - I could see that $14.20 level you're talking about.

In my chart that price level is an LVN (Low Volume Node) otherwise known as a level with little price activity. They too can act as support on the downside.

EDIT: Well I'll be damned. Those prices were GOBBLED up fast. Damnit.

 

$14.23 is also the 78.6% fib retracement of the established range. If it’s got enough momentum, that level must hold into any breakout. A re-test of the next fib — 61.8% or $13.11 — would only prolong the breakout. Anything below that would negate any breakout whatsoever.

$15.62 to $15.78 is huge.

$15.62 is the first fib extension coming off the previous cycle high of $10.24 down to the low of $1.61. $15.78 is the first fib circle extension of the 52-week range.

If the move off the lows is a testament of buyers conviction, then these price points must hold as the stock rotates into a new cycle that sees higher prices.

$19.32 to $19.60 is your next stop on the monthly.

 

Ryzen, Threadripper, and Epyc are very disruptive to the current cpu market in their value and performance. While amd once struggled to deliver a product that could remain consistently stable with intel, it has now easily ousted the competition. When Ryzen begins hitting phones and Gen 2 Ryzen is availible for cpus, intel will probably begin rolling out its troublesome next gens. It would not be suprising to see AMD finally close the gap with intel when its quarterlies hit and revenues can once again speak for themselves.

 

Crazy day on AMD.

Given that it's been up 9 straight weeks I was tentative to get in, but decided to yesterday 6/13 at $15.80 after it overcame that first selling climax on large volume. This morning it was off to the races again, when out of nowhere it dumped from the day's highs.

Due to my apprehension to chasing, I didn't even give it a chance to find support at the VAH. I dumped my shares hoping to buy in at another dip, but check out this sequence of events. Where did it build support? Exactly where my entry was at the top of the selloff from yesterday. Notice the POC (point of control or "most active price) shift upwards and essentially build support at the VAH.

This is a sign of how desired this stock is right now. Sell offs keep getting gobbled up by the buyers.

BEFORE



AFTER

 

If your not feeling 100% confident in placing a bet to the longside, but fear missing out, why not pair the trade with a short in the SMH which isn't showing signs of a meaningful breakout near term? This will allow you to asses conditions in the stock while still benefiting from whatever continued strength may be indisplay near term (at not too high a cost).

The problem with building an arbitrage position is that its: (a) capital intensive; (b) limits potential profits, and (c) it may prove to be a dud if you do not properly assign weights to each leg of the trade.

$14.23 to $15.78 will prove to be the new trading range into the end of summer IF $15.62 fails to hold on a back to back weekly close. Otherwise, you can buy it into the initial move up to $17.68 to $17.90 and into $19.32 to $19.60. But that is likely going to take a few weeks since its drawn on the monthly. A trade above $17.90 draws on a new cycle that needs re-evaluation.

 

Did not test $17.68 to $17.90 into the extension but the stock is in the process of contesting $15.62 to $15.78. This point will need to be tested a few more times before we can treat it as support.