That high-volume down-bar the week of March 26th did not have any follow-thru. It was retested (that is, they tried for a retest) the week of April 30th and there was zip for supply. The conclusion must be that the down-bar was bag-holding (CM holding his bag open under support). The top of that down-bar was tested the weeks of June 25th and July 2nd. If I were to venture a long, I'd put my stop at least as low as under 7.73, the low of the week of August 6th. Would have to drop down to daily and intraday charts for entry of course.
Not a doubt in my mind it's an SOS. As always the issue is entering. That is the hardest part though because it's already moved considerably and we need a pullback. It reminds of AMD's recent move when we basically had to sit and watch as it ran from 9 and broke out from the mid 14's up to 17, but then pulled back to 14 to offer entry. The same logic applies here i.e. let it keep running and break out from 11 then buy the pullback at that same 11 level. Assuming we get one. The chart has serious upside written all over it though. Any time you see a spring like that (shaking out the last shorts and weak longs) that moves back inside of an old range - usually much higher prices are coming.
Yep, the only way the bullishness can be negated would be to take out 7.73. A 50% retracement of that spring from 7.73 to 11.00 is 9.36 which coincides with where I've drawn an axis line @ 9.35. A 50% retracement between the swing low of 7.08 to 11.00 is 9.04. If we do get a pullback that area (9.00 to 9.35) would be very attractive I believe. I expect you are seeing a similar zone with your profile work. Stop would be under 7.73. The other scenario is as you say, to wait for, or add after, the break out and retest of 11.00. WEEKLY as of Monday's close:
Using the same dates you had in your chart - the volume profile disagrees slightly. It has the POC (point of control) where the most volume occurred at $8.64. The SOS we previously discussed confirmed that buyers won the auction The breakout of the Value Area High (VAH) suggests that the market will now attempt to continue upward in search of prior "value" (basically a previous POC - which I have at 17.36) Per the tenants of Auction Market Theory - we would want to see it hit 11.00, pullback to the VAH then bounce off of it or even trade laterally in a nice tight range before the next leg up. If it fell thru the VAH, then a trip back towards the POC is likely. Obviously volume profile bars are not static. It could be very well possible that the volume bar or "node" at your 9.35 ends up serving as support and a new POC develops before another attempted SOS and breakout over 11.00.
Keeping tabs on ZS. Daily chart produced a PnF measurement of 39 + (17 x 0.25 x 3) = $51.75 Assuming the buy volume on 8/16, 8/17, and 8/22 would be an SOS
That's hilarious . But it did play out just as you thought it would. Now we just wait for some kind of retest. May not be at $11 though. This looks as though it could run some more. Either we need shortening of the upward thrust or an effort vs result bar. In retrospect, as swing traders we get addicted to buying the tests, minimizing risk, but I can see one high-probability trend-following trigger we missed, the extended run rule says: After 7 straight closes above the 5ma, buy the first close under the 5ma or after 7 straight closes under the 5ma, sell the first close above the 5ma.. In this case it had exactly 7 days above the 5ma and then closed under it on the 8th day. I know, that rule is strictly mechanical and does not help to understand the underlying market behavior, however the test on that 8th day showed no supply, a Wyckoff confirmation if you will.
That day you're referring to is what I a coin an "inside" day and it's often the LPS before a big breakout. I trade them a lot, but for this one I was still very concerned about chasing even though I was 95% certain that accumulation was done and the mark up was in progress. The dynamic that comes into play here is I'm not trying to park my money for months if I'm "short-term" wrong and it pulls back against me - that's what it would require me to do. Perhaps I should give up the ghost of taking on every setup I can. I'm still having a great year, but it would be a colossal year had I just rode out my positions on stocks like AMD, SFIX, DLTH, etc. to their PnF and/or volume profile targets. I did it with TWTR, but was unable to remain patient on the other names.
I did that a long time ago...not enough time for it...not enough focus to manage very much. I used to know a trader, a successful trader I think, who only traded one stock, XLNX. He played it long and short, but that is all he traded. I tend to adhere to the dictum that says not to risk more than 1 to 2% of the kitty on any one trade. Consequently I have to trade more than one issue. Truth is though I under trade, risk under 1%, that is, I'm usually sitting on ~50% cash when I should have it in the market. If this NVTA is not an upthrust after distribution and the upside plays out, it still has a long ways to go; plenty of long trade opportunities to come: 40-cent box x 3-box-reversal
The S&P futures just broke above the January high this Sunday evening. The cash closed above the January high on Friday.
VNET ...... any thoughts? PnF measurement of 8.75 + (17 x 0.20 x 3) = 18.95. My volume profile charting (not pictured here confirmed) a breakout from 2017's profile and a successful re-test of the VAH for support.
BTW how did you get NVTA to come up under BATS? I can only seem to pull it up under NYSE on TradingView and the PnF account looks different under the same settings you're using.
When I type in the ticker it only presents one choice "NVTA-NYSE" with a Merkin flag after it. But then when I select it, it shows up on the chart header as "INVITAE CORPORATION,D,BATS,PnF". Hmmm, I dunno.
I see now that the S&Pee futures came down on some volume this afternoon. They're holding it up tonight, but I suppose a test of the January high is not out of the question. 4 hour sticks:
