A Wyckoff Student Notebook

Yep, that would explain it. I use "High-Low" (HL) by default now. I used to check both "HL" and "Close" but convinced myself that "HL" calibrates to past cause-versus-effect projections better, for the majority of stocks I've checked.

I've done well on ALGN; about 10% in 2 weeks but I'm trying to hold for the bigger move projected by the PnF counts; $435 and $445, about 25%. I don't like the low-end closes the last several days but it is continuing to push higher highs and higher lows each of those days. It's closed over the 5-day MA for 9 sessions now, suggesting an extended run is possible and that buying dips should be considered. Thinking about moving a mental stop up to a "close under 380". I figure if it closes under 380, I'd get a chance to re-enter at 368.49.

 

A brief history of US bear markets from the writings of Charles Dow compiled in "The ABC of Stock Speculation", copyright 1903. This book is now in the public domain and available online. It is interesting to read Dow's summaries of these events, particularly of the 1873 event, where he confirms the cause of the panic, popularly referred to then as the crime of 73. It was the period following the civil war when Lincoln's "green backs" were pulled from circulation, a period of great European immigration and westward expansion into the Midwest, yet the banks were shrinking the money supply and were able to get legislation passed that forbid the long tradition enabling citizens to bring silver bullion to the mints for conversion to silver coinage. The growing country was starving for money. The banks ended up foreclosing on Midwest farms for pennies on the dollar. The crime of 73 is alluded to in L. Frank Baum's book of 1900, The Wizard of Oz, which, if you didn't know, was more than a children's book, but a book about monetary policy....the heroine was from the Midwest (Kansas), the scarecrow represented farmers, the tinman the factory workers, the Lion was the Lion of Omaha, William Jennings Bryan a silver coinage proponent who ran for president against the gold standard proponent William McKinley, the Emerald (green) City run by a charlatan (Wall Street/bankers), the poppies (think English opium trade/ the Boxer Rebellion in China 1899-1901) that put the people to sleep, the yellow (gold) brick road, and the silver slippers (ruby slippers was a change made for the movie) were the answer, the way home...silver was the peoples' money, the quantity of which was not controlled by a few. The documentary "The Secret of Oz" available on youtube explains more. Unfortunately perhaps, Jennings lost to the bank-supported McKinley, who served their immediate purpose but was in turn assassinated in 1901 supposedly by an anarchist, what we would now call a "terrorist". It seems that although McKinley supported the gold standard he was not bank friendly. The bankers ended up winning, they got their wicked witches, the Federal Reserve Act and the Income Tax Act through congress and signed by Woody Wilson December 23, 1913 when few were paying attention. So now a few (the unknown owners of the Federal Reserve Bank) control the quantity of our money supply and consequently can pull all the strings of government including US military operations...it's effing unbelievable really.

 

I show an objective of $31.20 in the base count. Haven't done the count yet on the re-accumulation range. If it matches the base count that would be a heads-up.

 

I don't get your dilemma. Your chart looks fine. TradingView doesn't show any splits, but I guess it could be wrong. But again your chart looks correct.

 

Okay yeah, I see it now. Dang Tradingview doesn't even indicate that split. Just another data problem that reminds me why I don't pay for their premium packages.

But it appears you are showing a chart from the Think or Swim desktop platform; why would they default to not adjusting for splits??? I'd open T or S and check it out but I'm remote this week. There's got to be a setting somewhere for that.

 

Looks like this spring is going to take. They can't seem to get it down for a retest. I think I'll hold'em unless something breaks loose in the last 30 minutes.

S&P E-mini futures, hourly:

 

Nice break into the gap! Looks like its gunning for the top of that high-volume gap at 37.04 (close of Dec 8, 2016) or the all-time high at 38.19.

 

Don't forget the Doobie Brothers, CGC and CRON.

Seems lately these "high" fliers go up when the market in-general is having a bad day...when there's a lot of liquidity sloshing around looking for a home. De ja vu, seems I've seen this before in the late stages of a bull. I think the saying goes something like, "you know the top is approaching when the pigs start flying".

 

I once would've included DDD in with the pigs but it has been rising out of its wallow this year. On Jrich's retail theme, VRA broke out yesterday. Oh and speaking of pigs, remember Mankind (MNKD)? It was flirting with $1 and then Tuesday & Wednesday shot up to $3 in true penny stock fashion...corrected today.

 

NVTA 30-minute sticks as of Thursday's close. In order to commit long, I would need to see a SOS in this time frame. I don't think that buying bar right after the ST counts. It should be well into the right-hand side of the TR I believe....tomorrow would be good.



DDD does not look as ready to me. However, there was a little Shortening of Thrust (SOT) on that last down-thrust (vertical distance between blue lines).

 

Yep, yep I see it, and that last run-up looks very well behaved. Yep I agree we need to keep a close eye on this one. I see a stop no higher than 11.50 or 11.00 so it'd be nice to see it come into 16 on light volume.

Weekly as of Thursday's close: