Well, well.... Statement from Tesla's board of directors: "PALO ALTO, Calif., Aug. 24, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Over the past several weeks, we put in place a process led by a Special Committee of the Board to evaluate a proposal Elon was considering to take Tesla private. Yesterday, we held a Board meeting, during which Elon reported on the work he and his advisors have been doing in connection with this effort. Elon communicated to the Board that after having done this work and considered all factors, he believes the better path is to no longer pursue a transaction for taking Tesla private. After discussing this, we dissolved the Special Committee. The Board and the entire company remain focused on ensuring Tesla’s operational success, and we fully support Elon as he continues to lead the company moving forward."
I’ve been a shareholder since the stock was $40ish, haven’t sold any and added more over the years at under $200 My thesis for not selling is either A) it goes private for a higher price Or more likely B) where the $400 ish price still undervalues the fact that they’re about 2-3 years ahead of all competition when it comes to the tech, and the vast amount of data they have compared to others in the field when it comes to autonomous driving. That’s gonna take years and years to be adopted, but if I was in the market for an EV a Tesla would be my first choice. They have a lot of room to grow in terms of market share also. People keep talking about how it’s burning cash, but if you look at their earnings chart, it shows that they can be cash flow positive after a release, but since their growing their model range, they burn cash again to fund their higher production cars. A lot of the big costs are initial costs that a car manufacturer has to make, but they’ll continue to use them for years and years and as their sales increase, they’ll become cash flow positive. Those are essentially the arguments I have for being bullish on this company over the long term.
Ouch, Buffet buffets TSLA and Elon: It would be a “very poor idea” for Apple Inc. to invest in Tesla Inc., Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Chief Executive and legendary investor Warren Buffett told Fox Business on Thursday. Buffett also issued an indirect, mild rebuke to Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk during an interview broadcast Thursday, saying in regards to Musk’s “funding secured” tweet that while anyone can misspeak, “if you misspeak, you correct it immediately.”
Great post, Megladon. Welcome to Stockaholics. It's rare to come across a fellow investor so I'm delighted to see you here.
Goldman Sachs is back to crapping on Tesla. They want to be wrong for another few years. Date Symbol Brokerage Current Previous Pr. TargetPrice Target 04 Sep 2018 USTSLA Goldman Sachs Sell N/A $210.00
No, they want to tank the price so they can buy it cheaper. Once it dips and they get themselves and whatever other billionaires invested that they want to, they'll change their price target to start driving the price up.
Perhaps so. Whatever is going on with industry analysts, a lot of it does not seem honest. Tesla is moving mountains and doing great things. How profitable they will be is an open question but they've quadrupled their EV production capability in the last year while only tripling their energy storage production. Throw in the embryo of a grid management platform that could go a long way towards turning energy grids into a packaged product and Tesla has to be about the most exciting company to come a long in my lifetime. I understand production is off in August. I'm hearing the manufacturing process is evolving and they are capable of the 6K production goal for the model 3 but they have only produced 4K cars per week in August.
As someone who works in the auto industry, it doesn't matter how much you're capable of running, you will never hurt that number. All that matters is what you actually build.
At least, some of the under-production can be attributed to re-tooling to make the right hand drive model 3. There was also a fire on the grounds, near GA4, but Tesla released a statement that it didn't stop production. I don't believe either of these factors account for the loss of 33% of Tesla's production capacity in August. We know that Tesla produced 6280 cars the last week of July. Even if that was a stretch goal, they have made process improvements and seem confident in the manufacturing efficiency improvements. Actual capacity should be above 6000 model 3s per month. Tesla has indicated they still plan to hit their quarter goal so they are either lying or they have substantially improved production capacity to make up a shortage of 4000 cars in September. Meanwhile, at Gigafactory 1, we know Panasonic continues to bring more battery capacity online. As I understand the process, the jelly rolls have to be aged before cell formation so it's a bit of a pipeline to bring capacity online. Can anyone confirm the aging step in cell production and perhaps even quantify how long they need to be aged?
Further.... GPB uses a process where anode and cathode are sandwiched under pressure in an oven for several hours. This step happens after both the aluminum anode coating is cured and the copper cathode coating is cured. I believe the GPB cell pipeline to be on the order of 30 hours. I'd be curious to know how long Tesla's cell pipeline is. I suppose this would be the Panasonic pipeline, as they supply the process.
Looks like it is doing an ABC-Down. The volume on the break under the B-point was lighter than at the B-point, suggesting it may not do a 1 to 1 extension, that is C to D should be less than A to B. Note a previous ABC-Down where the break below the B-point was on higher volume. In that case it did a 1.5 extension. This time no, the volume was lighter lending credence to the support at 252.78 I think. Or even right here perhaps, but I doubt it. It may pause here for a while, but that B to C (dead-cat bounce) was so dang weak that I think it'll fall a bit more from here eventually. On a more cautious note, I seem to recall Goldman Suchs advertised their target at $210. Who knows how they came up with that number (1/2 of Elon's $420 perhaps) and why they would advertise it, except that they do have their nefarious purposes and ample means to make these things happen; revolving door into the White House, etc.
Today's attempt to bounce was abruptly taken as an opportunity to sell. But on the shorter time frame (30-minute sticks below) it is a change of behavior. So far today there is a selling climax (SC), an automatic rally (AR, short covering), and a secondary test (ST). Since in this time frame there is supply (selling, weakness) in the background it will be necessary for demand to prove itself and thus show a sign of strength (SOS, large price range up with large volume) in order to reverse the trend. The longer it stays in this trading range the more cause it will have to attain higher prices. However, the trend is down and trend trumps everything and that is why the assumption should be that it won't show a sign of strength (SOS). Since supply has already proven itself, it can fall out of the range on low volume. 30-minute sticks, Thurs, 9/6/18 @ 11:45am CDT
Model 3 production was off in August and yet Tesla remains confident of Q3 numbers. hmmmm..... Also interesting, model 3 sales cited at precisely 17,000 for August. Model S sales cited at precisely 2000. Could this be sandbagging? https://cleantechnica.com/2018/09/06/tesla-model-3-5th-best-selling-car-in-united-states/
I love this part of the article: Shockingly, the mainstream media has not been covering these dramatic milestones in a young American car company’s evolution. Tesla started mass producing cars only 6 years ago, which makes its rise to the top of the charts today absolutely stunning. However, the mainstream media seems to think it’s more worthwhile to write long stories about brief off-hand tweets from Elon Musk than these sales successes. Here at CleanTechnica, we’ve started tracking Tesla headlines in the mainstream media. This week so far, out of 63 headlines, we’ve found that 43 insinuate something negative about Tesla while only 9 offer positive implications for the company. Furthermore, there is not yet a single positive headline about Tesla sales. This is nothing new. Richard Wyckoff wrote about this in the 1930s if not earlier. Clearly the big boyz are wanting to buy this at lower prices. Just knowing that they do this (manipulate the news media) is very useful for us....we know they are buying or intend to buy.
I've noticed the frenzy of negativity started as Tesla began to dominate the EV scene. When history looks back on this moment in time, with a young company building and selling EVs at a rate of 400K per year and ramping fast and headlines almost exclusively negative, there will be a footnote regarding ignorance and would be saboteurs. The clear consensus among dinosaur brains is that EVs are a passing fad and, if they start to catch on, the big manufacturers will simply put an electric motor and a battery in one of their cars and kill Tesla with their high volume capabilities in a few months. That clearly hasn't happened and likely won't happen, and yet the message and point of view continues. These are likely the same people who think vaccinations kill autism. The primary manufacturer with a shot at running with Tesla is Volkswagen. They are the only ones who take the EV revolution seriously but they are way behind. They talk about what they will be able to do one day while Tesla has a massive charging infrastructure and wonderful vehicles today. Tesla is now the EV Goliath. The major auto manufacturers are the Davids. Elon Musk is going to have to adapt to being the big dog. He is going to have to learn to ignore the ankle biters in order to lead the industry well.
Hyundai has discontinued two EV platforms, due to lack of cell availability. Other manufacturer's projects have been delayed and cancelled as well, for the same reason. Tesla knew they had to partner with a major supplier or they would not be able to compete against larger companies that could dominate supply. The mistakes Tesla has made are real and ongoing but the successes Tesla has made are nothing short of brilliant. To criticize Tesla for delays and minor mistakes is to insinuate other manufacturers do not make mistakes nor do they suffer delays. Anyone who has worked in a corporation knows that projects don't always finish on time. lol!
A clip from the TheStreet on Morton (CAO) quitting after less than one month on the job: Tesla's $1.8 billion of 5.3% bonds, due in 2025, plunged on Friday, hitting a low of $81.75 apiece after the electric car maker's Chief Accounting Officer, David Morton, and its human resources chief, Gabrielle Toledano, both said they were quitting. Morton had been in his job less than a month and Toledano decided not to return after taking a leave of absence..... ….One analyst speculated Morton has seen things on Tesla's books non-insiders wouldn't be privy to. "He's seen things none of us have seen, and he's leaving after a month," Gordon Johnson of Vertical Group told TheStreet. "He (Morton) might say 'I'm questioning these numbers,' and as a result, he decides to leave." Johnson, who has an $88 price target on Tesla, believes "They're {Tesla}, in our view, taking costs out of Tesla and putting them into 'services and other,'" he said. "That's what investors are looking at - their automotive margins." Others don't agree. "If they leave with account-honesty issues, they usually don't take that extra step to say that the accounting is fine," Gene Munster, former tech analyst, co-founder and managing partner of venture capital firm Loup Ventures told TheStreet. "The one question it does raise; did the accountant see something longer-term saying it wasn't going to be sustainable, that the company wasn't going to make it long-term," he said. "It's a black eye for accountants if they're involved with a company that doesn't make it." Aside from accounting, and aside from the company's growth prospects, Morton's resignation could be a mere reflection of what many already believe is true; Musk isn't an easy person to be around. "I think the reason why he left is because Elon can be tough to work for," Munster said. Musk's personality could be acting as an impediment to what has been Tesla's life-line: debt. "They need to have a strong leader that can go out and raise money," Munster said. "Elon, the way he is acting, they're not going to be able to raise money." Johnson agrees the company's cash flow is in serious jeopardy. "The company needs money, and if their ability to raise money is compromised, the point at which they can't operate anymore is near," he said. Goldman Sachs downgraded Tesla this week, giving it a six-month price target of $210 a share, roughly 20% below its current level. "With looming maturities on convertible debt, we believe the company would likely need to come back to the capital markets in first-half 2019," the Goldman Sachs note said. Tesla has $920 million of debt due in March of 2019, and many credit analysts say another debt raise would be credit negative. "Creditors have closely been monitoring the company's narrowing liquidity position," S&P Global Market Intelligence wrote in a note. https://www.thestreet.com/markets/t...es-14705567?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO&yptr=yahoo
As suspected it found buyers at $252, at a near 1 to 0.786 extension. Now we wait to judge the character of a bounce. The previous support line at 279 should offer resistance now. Daily:
I think this stock will flounder until the Q3 earnings call in early November. Tesla will do well post Q3 earnings call, as long as they have profitability within sight. At that point, I expect a steamroller quarter. The Vertical Group and Gordon Johnson haven't written anything accurate about Tesla yet. Their attacks have been based on lies. I wish them well on getting something right, one day. Anyone who studies Republican campaign styles can see a pattern of endless hammering on various lies until they are able to plant a seed of doubt in people's mind regarding their opponent. It's effective with people who think in a certain way and this is exactly what is happening with the Tesla attackers. These lies are hurting Tesla but I don't think the Tesla base has the same thought processes as the Republican base. That's why I continue to hold long. The reality is, if the attacks, lies, and smears were to work, it would either bring Tesla down or dramatically hurt Tesla. Tesla can only prosper as long as it has strong support so this is a dangerous experiment to a Tesla long, like myself.. The obvious parallel to politics is that the attacks are almost exclusively built on lies. I've studied this for a few years and still don't have a clear understanding of how this works. Why would a group base attacks on lies when there are real flaws to point out? Meanwhile, the weed smoking outrage is moronic. The puff can be seen at 45s into this clip. Judge for yourself. I worked in technology for 30 years so I've seen some people go to the edge with stress and burnout. Sometimes entire departments are pushed to the emotional edge. Elon can bounce back with his emotional well being but he is clearly stressed at this time. The Tesla air conditioner will be interesting. Tesla is clearly working on the "Tesla house". Last I heard, it was to be announced next year. I've been following a guy who has done some pretty solid work on solar heat. It wouldn't be difficult for Tesla to move into this space, also. If Tesla were to package HVAC, energy, and transport, the company value could go to infinity. But yeah, the attackers could install enough seeds of doubt in the investment community to damage Tesla heavily or even kill the company.
