Good to see everyone is doing well, especially Onepoint . If you have time I was curious as to your opinion on GoPro's chart.
Next most likely trade, CAT... If the $161 price line doesn't become too cumbersome, this looks like a textbook phase D (mark up within TR), with a clear LPS in the $150 area.... P&F target offers a potential 100% gain, that would feel pretty good to be right about
This current market pullback is a classic example of why it's no easy task to hold the entire time waiting out our targets. I'll chalk it up to a learning experience. The PnF measurements are powerful if utilized correctly, but we must always be aware of the shape of the overall market.
Something im still figuring out.... Judging the market by its own actions means just that "why didn't my trade reach its target?"... Because it didn't "why did the markets decline today?"... Because they did In other words, its quite possible to be wrong even when im right.... Especially today with the way every equity in the market is tied together via ETF's and passive investing strategies Btw, I took a puny 14% profit from DLTH after being up 40% at one point... Not sure what the lesson was there, but Im sure I learned something
Ya, there is such a thing as "short-term wrong, long-term right" or visa versa. It all depends on your hold time. The thing is, the longer the hold time the more risk you assume. I know for myself I don't yet have my account size where I'm mentally comfortable waiting out anything longer than a couple weeks to maybe a month or two. Sorry to hear about the DLTH position. That's basically what happened to me on both SFIX and NVTA and it's not a fun feeling. I had delusions of grandeur with NVTA, SEND, KTOS, etc going higher ..... but was out of everything as of a week and a half ago after not getting any traction.
Yea, DLTH and ROKU both had my head swelling pretty big... At least I took some profit from one of the two I got stopped out of all my other positions this week... For the first time in a good while my "positions" tab was empty... Now im fighting off the FOMO with all the blood in the water... I havnt familiarized myself much with the dark side yet, so the sideline just feels smarter than trying to go short..... I did pick up a little COP a couple days ago, a relative strength trade, as energy seems somewhat insulated from the bear claw, at least not initially
Observation... The big retailers so far seem untouched by the sell off... WMT,TGT, and DG which ive been following for some time now... Of course, I said the same thing about energy yesterday, and it got slammed today... Still, im keeping a close eye on this one, the P&F targets matching up and relative strength to SPX topping out are promising indicators
Well, never mind the retailers.. Just another domino How bout GLD as a play here?... The distribution count from May has been met, and the TR from August built cause for an 11 point move... Not a lot of upside, but looking at the November 30 calls for a lil leverage... Seems like a good spot... Fixed income falling, dollar down.. And implied vol is fairly low here, around 10.96
WMT is also a consumer staples stock, as too is COST (anothing big retailer). XLP has long underperformed but held up well yesterday and looking like it can try to break that underperformance trend. Today's decline on huge volume may be capitulation needed for that.
You're right... Kind of a habit to mentally link WMT and TGT together, since growing up they were 2 of the big 3 (i still miss Kmart)
Thanks and sorry for the late reply. I took some time off to do some light logging on my place in northern WI. But to do that it causes me more work on my job before and after. I guess GoPro took a dump with the rest of the market but it does seem to be holding up well. It is still working within the true-range of that supply bar back on January 8th. Friday it held the support at the close of Sept 25th the launch pad of that buying bar on Sept 26th. It would interesting though to see it test the $6.00 area again before earnings to see if there is any supply left.
So i finally got approved for margin from TDA last week.. Also upgraded to tier 3 options, which im not quite ready for, but learning.... So now i can actually come over to the dark side.. And i just made my first official short today... Short HOG at $39.21 Conceivably a redistribution range with a downside target at $29... ER tomorrow premarket, the bike brand hasn't been doing so hot politically, lets see how that's reflected financially
Longer term I think demographics are against them...the product and price point appeals to middle age men and the baby boom is past that, and the echo booms are smaller than the baby boom, thus Harley will have no apparent need to expand. On a cautious note though, their divvy yield is now 3.8% and it'll be 4% at a price of $37, which is attractive for buyers. Oh, and don't forget that you will have to pay the dividend if you hold short into the ex-div date. But of course, you are cautious.
I missed the ex-dividend date by a month, so im good there for another two..... Good point about the yield being a buy signal, hadn't thought of that, one more thing to watch out for...... I was thinking a while back about making a "trade checklist"... Like a short list of things to develop a habit of checking before every trade, obvious things that could be easily overlooked.... Things like calender events, short ratio, yield should be on there, maybe even upgrades/downgrades, and not sure what else
Crazy idea for a trade... Kinda like a straddle.. Or a "sector spread".. Or arbitrage.. Or, idk, maybe theres a name for it already Been looking for a spot to get back into ROKU and this looks as good as any.. CO sponsorship isn't apparent during the drop, but neither is CO selling... The tech wreck has me a little shy though... So, try this on for size... Long ROKU, and short NFLX for protection..... Obviously top competitors in this space, and imo NFLX kinda sucks, especially when ROKU is free..... But don't take my word for it, NFLX has been ranging and shows some evidence of distribution while ROKU has been rallying... Relative strength to XLK could be further confirmation So, if tech gets hammered again, im hedged on one side of the trade... If im wrong, and they both rally, Im hedged the other way too... But if im right, and they part the red sea, the pay off could be epic
DISH showing confirmation of P&F targets... And a rewarding 50% downside objective... Bonus, the company does not pay a dividend
On the ES, it appears the down move from the October 17th high at 2824.25 is complete. The 4 consecutive days (Wed, Thurs, Fry, Mon) saw the market crash in the final periods (red arrows). The sell-off during the last period on Moonday was amongst the largest on the 4-hour chart and it closed well off its low. Then today, Tuesday, during the final period, it did not crash and in fact it managed to close above Moonday's selloff bar. Also, the demand line of the long term up-channel was hit during Moonday's crash. Looking for initial resistance at 2712.25 and if it can close above that level it should make its way to 2756.50.
