Stock Market Today: November 5th - 9th, 2018

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by Stockaholic, Nov 2, 2018.

  1. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of November 5th!

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
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    Major Indices End of Week:
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    Bird's Eye view of the Major Futures Markets on Friday:
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    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
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    Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:
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    What to Watch in the Week Ahead:
    T.B.A.
     
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  2. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Stocks Soar On Biggest Weekly Short-Squeeze Since Election, Bonds Bloodbath
    After Schocktober, November's chaos likely left a lot of traders thinking this...

    Chinese stocks saw an orgy of sudden mysterious buying pressure after Monday's dip... (heaviest volume week since February)

    [​IMG]

    More From ZeroHedge


    European stocks were higher but considerably less linearly manipulated...Everyday saw a solid open sold off...

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    US Stocks are back in the green for the year thanks to this mega squeeze...

    [​IMG]

    US Markets were utter chaos on the week with plunge protection bids and short-squeezes everywhere... Small Caps and Trannies outperformed...

    [​IMG]



    Today was all about Apple and China Trade - An initial tumble after hours (Apple) was quickly erased on Bloomberg headlines about progress in US-China trade talks. This lasted until 3 White House officials (off the record) and Larry Kudlow (on the record) confirmed no such deal progress existed, sending stocks slamming lower. Then in the last hour of the day Trump told reporters progress was being made and stocks recovered...

    [​IMG]



    What really helped the week overall was a massive short-squeeze (an 8% surge) - the biggest since Nov 2016 (US Election)...

    [​IMG]



    Dow made it back above it 200DMA (but failed with its 100DMA) but S&P, Nasdaq, and Small Caps all remain below the 200DMA still..

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    NOTE where The Dow stalled today - almost to the tick of the 50% retrace of October's big plunge...

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    Obviously Apple was making all the headlines, tumbling back below a trillion dollar market cap...

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    FANG stocks rallied, breaking a four-week losing streak, but it was anything but convincing...

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    Despite VIX compression this week, the term structure remains inverted...this is the 20th day in a row...

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    As stocks tumbled during the day, bonds were also sold as it seems quant derisking remains

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    Treasury yields blew wider all week, accelerating as November started...

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    30Y took out 2018 yield highs - pushing to 3.46% - the highest since July 2014...

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    The Dollar ended the week almost unchanged after yesterday's tumble and today's chaotic swings...

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    But the big story was the surge in offshore yuan (and give back today)...

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    For some context, that 2-day spike erases a month of weakness - but we have seen this kind of manipulated squeeze a few times...

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    Cryptos ended the week practically unchanged (aside from Bitcoin Cash)...

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    Copper ripped on the China headlines, crude dumped as Iran squeeze fears abated...

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    Mirroring the dollar, Gold ended the week almost unchanged in a big V-shaped recovery

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    It seems the new Yuan peg is at 8500 per oz of gold...

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    WTI Crude crashed this week to its lowest in 7 months with a $62 handle...

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    Finally, just in case you thought October was the 'pause that refreshes' and encourages investors to buy the dip for another leg higher to infinity and beyond... they are already 'all in'...

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    Which is not a good sign as Bloomberg reports that Ned Davis Research just went bearish on global stocks for the first time since 2009... Investors should sell stocks and buy bonds because the equity decline is only halfway done, according to Tim Hayes, the firm’s chief global investment strategist.

    “In making this move on market strength, we are recognizing that the global market downtrend has not led to the levels of panic and capitulation needed to start a bottoming process,” Hayes wrote in a note late Thursday.

    [​IMG]

    “We have yet to see a waterfall decline with extremely high downside volume and volatility.”

    Four out of the 10 components in the firm’s model have turned bearish. If another one goes sour, Hayes said he’ll downgrade stock allocation further.

    Soft survey data started to catch down to reality this week...

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    Tighter financial conditions still point to a considerably lower stock market...

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    No matter what - something changed!!

    [​IMG]
     
  3. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

    I have written about the “problem with passive” previously which mostly fell on “deaf ears.” Such should not be surprising after one of the longest advances in market history with virtually no volatility in 2017.

    However, as they say, “payback is a bitch.”

    This year started off with a January rush higher followed immediately by a 2-week sell-off that wiped out the entire advance. But then it was over, and the market began to stair step higher ultimately reaching all-time highs.

    Once again, the “buy and hold” and “passive indexing” mantras were seemingly proved right.

    And then the month of October arrived and stocks plunged more in one month (-7.4%) as compared to the decline from the closing highs in January to the lows of March (-6.5%). (As noted, it is important that November musters a fairly strong rally to keep the monthly MACD sell signal from triggering. Such would denote a much more negative backdrop for stocks in the months ahead.)

    [​IMG]


    Over the last couple of months, we have repeatedly warned our readers that a pickup in volatility in October was highly likely due to the strong advances made by the markets during the preceding summer months. At the beginning of September I penned:

    “However, there are plenty of warning signs that the “good times” are nearing their end, which will likely surprise most everyone.”

    Then I reiterated that point two weeks later. To wit:

    “While we are long-biased in our portfolios currently, such doesn’t remain there is no risk to portfolios currently. With ongoing “trade war” rhetoric, political intrigue at the White House, and interest rates pushing back up to 3%, there is much which could spook the markets over the next 45-days.”

    The chart below only shows months where the market lost more than 5%. You will notice clusters of losses during the centers of major bear markets such as 1974, 2000, and 2008.

    [​IMG]

    So, with October behind us, the market should march back to all-time highs. Right? Maybe not, as this time is not like last time.

    • The Fed is hiking rates versus either lowering or keeping them at zero.

    • The Fed is reducing rather than increasing their balance sheet.

    • The current Administration is insisting on a “trade war” which slows global growth.

    • The economic cycle is mature rather than recovering.

    • Record levels of debt at risk of rising rates versus a re-leveraging cycle with ultra-low rates.

    • A mature housing, auto, and consumption cycle versus a recovery.

    • Global central bank interventions have begun to taper versus expansion

    • Peak earnings growth versus expansion

    • Peak valuations versus expanding valuations



    While the sell-off this past month was not particularly unusual, it was the break of material levels of support which was different. Furthermore, the uniformity of the price moves revealed the fallacy “passive investing” as investors headed for the door all at the same time. Such a uniform sell-off is indicative of what we have been warning about for the last several months and should serve as a warning.

    “With everyone crowded into the ‘ETF Theater,’ the ‘exit’ problem should be of serious concern. Unfortunately, for most investors, they are likely stuck at the very back of the theater.

    However, I am suggesting that remaining fully invested in the financial markets without a thorough understanding of your ‘risk exposure’ will likely not have the desired end result you have been promised.

    As I stated often, my job is to participate in the markets while keeping a measured approach to capital preservation. Since it is considered ‘bearish’ to point out the potential ‘risks’ that could lead to rapid capital destruction; then I guess you can call me a ‘bear.’

    Just make sure you understand I am still in ‘theater,’ I am just moving much closer to the ‘exit.’”

    Despite the best of intentions, individual investors are NOT passive even though they are investing in “passive” vehicles. When these market swoons begin, the rush to liquidate entire baskets of stocks accelerate the decline making sell offs much more violent than what we have seen in the past.

    This concentration of risk, lack of liquidity, and a market increasingly driven by “robot trading algorithms,” reversals are no longer a slow and methodical process but rather a stampede with little regard to price, valuation, or fundamental measures as the exit becomes very narrow.

    October was just a “sampling” of what will happen to the markets when the next bear market begins.

    Oh, I almost forgot, the other problem with the whole “passive investing” mantra is that “getting back to even” is not a successful investment strategy to begin with.

    #YouHaveBeenWarned

    Just something to think about as you catch up on your weekend reading list.

    Economy & Fed
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    Most Read On RIA
    Research / Interesting Reads
    “You get recessions, you get stock market declines. If you don’t understand that’s going to happen, then you are not ready and you will not do well in the markets” – Peter Lynch
     
  4. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2018-
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    S&P sectors for the past week-
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  5. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Good Riddance, October
    Posted by lplresearch

    Well, it’s a good thing that October is over. In the end, the S&P 500 Index lost 6.9%, for the worst month since September 2011.

    Here are some of the highlights—or lowlights—from the month:
    • Besides being the worst month for the S&P 500 in seven years, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 5.1% for its worst month since January 2016, while the Nasdaq’s -9.2% return marked its worst month since November 2008. The big loser was small caps though, as the Russell 2000 Index fell 10.9%, its worst month since September 2011.
    • The six-month win streak for the S&P 500 is officially over. Want some good news? Since 1990, it has had 10 other 6-month win streaks, and the index was higher every single time 12 months later, up 13.6% on average.
    • The S&P 500 fell 16 days during the month, tying the most down days for any one month since October 2008.
    • The first back-to-back up days for the S&P 500 took place on the final two trading days of the month, with the index gaining more than 1% each day. This occurred nearly right on cue, as the end of the month tends to see the best moves.
    [​IMG]
    • In fact, the S&P 500 had gone 28 consecutive trading days without back-to-back up days. As our LPL Chart of the Day shows, that tied the longest streak going back to the Great Depression. That sums up how persistent the selling has been recently.
    [​IMG]
    • After not a single 1% move up or down during the entire third quarter, the S&P 500 saw 10 changes of at least 1% up or down last month. That was the most for any month since 12 changes back in February 2018. October even had four changes of at least 2%, for the most since January 2016.
    • Lastly, turning to the Dow, in terms of the cumulative intraday range for the Dow during October, it moved a total of 9,872 points. Only February 2018 and October 2008 had larger movements.
    “October was a rough ride, and most investors are likely quite happy to wave it goodbye. The good news remains that valuations are the lowest they’ve been in years, earnings continue to surprise to the upside, and November and December during a midterm year are historically quite strong,” summarized LPL Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick.

    [​IMG]

    A Silver Lining
    Posted by lplresearch

    It’s been a rocky ride so far in October, but there is a silver lining. “Incredibly, the S&P 500 during a midterm year has never finished lower if you bought the October low and held till the end of the year,” explained LPL Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick.

    Of course, no one can pick a market low with any consistency, but with October about to end, it is safe to assume the low happened last week or will happen over the next few days.

    As our LPL Chart of the Day shows, the past 18 midterm years saw the S&P 500 Index gain from the October lowest close until the end of the year every single time—up 10.6% on average. Given the average year since 1950 is up 7.4% on average from the October lows, midterm years can see even more strength to end the year.

    [​IMG]

    The Calendar Is a Bull’s Best Friend
    Posted by lplresearch

    “October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.” — Mark Twain

    After six straight months of equity gains for the S&P 500 Index and one of the least volatile quarters ever, the historically volatile October is living up to its name. However, earnings continue to be very strong, and we see very little reason to expect a recession over the next 12–18 months. By no means are investors out of the woods yet, as we wouldn’t be surprised to see more weakness and volatility before the midterm elections. Remember, the S&P 500 dropped for nine straight days ahead of the U.S. election in November 2016. Nevertheless, there may be a silver lining for the bulls.

    As our LPL Chart of the Day shows, the majority of stock gains in midterm years have come late in the year. “Midterm years have tended to be the most volatile out of the four-year presidential cycle, and wouldn’t you know it, nearly all the gains for the year tended to happen in the final few months,” explained LPL Research Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick.

    [​IMG]

    On average, the S&P 500 actually has been negative year to date ate in early October during a midterm year. Importantly, markets can be jittery ahead of major events like elections. Once the uncertainty is resolved in November, solid fundamentals and strong seasonals could take over for a nice year-end rally.

    Five Takeaways on October’s Rough Ride
    Posted by lplresearch

    October has been a rough month for equities, but then again it’s historically been one of the most volatile periods of the year.

    “October is known for volatility, and we’ve sure seen it so far,” explained Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “In fact, by many measures, October is poised to be one of the worst months in years. The S&P 500 Index has had two separate six-day losing streaks this month for the first time in history. That pretty much sums it up.”

    Here are five takeaways from October’s action so far:

    The bad news.
    • The S&P 500 is down 8.8% month to date, which would make this the worst month since February 2009 and the worst October since 2008 if it finishes the month at its current level.
    • After not posting a daily move of more than 1% throughout the entire third quarter for the first time since 1963, this month has already seen six days out of 18 (33%) close at least 1% higher or lower.
    • The S&P 500 has been down 14 days so far in October, the most for any month since May 2012. Also, 78% of the days this month have closed in the red (14 of 18), the worst for any month since 82% of days in April 1970 closed down.
    Now, for some good news.
    • Since 1950, there have been seven other years when the S&P 500 was positive year-to-date at the end of September, but fell negative year to date at some point during the month of October. The final two months of those years were higher six times and up 4.1% on average.
    • Historically, the last few days of October have been some of the strongest of the year. With markets looking extremely oversold, the stage could be set for a rally.
    [​IMG]

    November & December Performance after a Down October
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    This past midterm-year October that ended yesterday finished well below expectations and historical averages. DJIA declined 5.1%, S&P 500 dropped 6.9% and NASDAQ was off 9.2%. October’s losses were the seventh worst decline for DJIA since 1950, fourth worst for S&P 500 and fifth worst for NASDAQ since 1971. Historically, November and December market performance did hold up following a negative October.

    In the above table every down October for DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have been compiled along with their respective performance in November and December. Compared to all Octobers, DJIA and S&P 500 performance improved in November and December when October suffered a decline. DJIA’s average performance in November and December after an October decline improved to 2.3% and 1.9% compared to average gains of 1.6% and 1.7% respectively in all years. S&P 500 in November had a modestly weaker average performance following a down October, but December was notably stronger. NASDAQ’s November performance after an October decline is worse than average, but the results are heavily skewed by double-digit declines in 1973, 2000 and 2008.

    Even better and perhaps of greater relevance is the performance of November and December in past midterm years where October was down (shaded in grey and italics in table). All midterm Novembers and Decembers were positive and average performance was nearly double or better.

    Oversold Rally Caps On
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    If today’s gains hold through the close, it is time to put your rally caps on. We have been patiently awaiting a turn like this and some technical confirmation. Now that everyone remembers that “Sell in May” is not dead, we can focus on the “Best Six Months” and the Sweet Spot of the 4-Year Cycle.

    The chart below highlights the clearly oversold condition as measured by the NASDAQ 100 (NDX). The chart comes from the venerable Tom McClellan (@McClellanOsc) of The McClellan Oscillator and McClellan Financial Publications, a widely followed and relied upon indicator and service by market technicians and serious traders, investors and analysts.

    It was brought to our attention by a one of our trusty loyal newsletter subscribers, Bill in LA. It looks like Tom McClellan’s NDX Oversold Indicator is confirming our analysis that the stock market is ready for its annual and perennial rip.
    [​IMG]
    In his October 25 post Mr. McClellan states the, “chart shows how the measurement of NDX stocks above their 100MAs has behaved over time. Readings above 80 or below 20 show extended conditions. There is a difference, though, between the meaning of high and low readings. Sometimes a very high reading can appear early in an uptrend, and is a sign of strong new initiation. Very low readings, on the other hand, are more reliably associated with oversold bottoming conditions.”

    He goes on to note that 2008 “‘broke’ a lot of normal technical relationships and signals”and stayed below 20 from September 2008 until late January 2009. “It even got down to 0 at a couple of points in October 2008….But if the October 2018 is a more ‘normal’ pullback, then the oversold condition that this indicator (and others) is signaling is a sign of a bottoming opportunity.

    My assessment is that this is a more normal pullback. And this is a buying opportunity.

    November Kicks Off the “Best Months”
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    November maintains its status among the top performing months as fourth-quarter cash inflows from institutions drive November to lead the best consecutive three-month span November-January. The month has taken hits during bear markets and November 2000, down –22.9% (undecided election and a nascent bear), was NASDAQ’s second worst month on record—only October 1987 was worse.

    November begins the “Best Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P 500, and the “Best Eight Months” for NASDAQ. Small caps come into favor during November, but don’t really take off until the last two weeks of the year. November is the number-three DJIA (since 1950) and NASDAQ (since 1971) month. November is second best for S&P 500 (since 1950) and Russell 2000 (since 1979). November is the Russell 1000’s best month (since 1979).
    [​IMG]
    In midterm years, November’s market prowess is relatively unchanged. DJIA has advanced in 13 of the last 17 midterm years since 1950 with an average gain of 2.5%. S&P 500 has also been up in 13 of the past 17 midterm years, gaining on average 2.6%. Small-caps perform well with Russell 2000 climbing in 6 of the past 9 midterm years, averaging 3.5%. The only real blemish in the November midterm-year record is 1974 (DJIA –7.0%, bear market ended in December).

    Best and Worst Performing S&P 500 Stocks on Earnings
    Nov 2, 2018

    Below is a list of the best performing S&P 500 stocks on their earnings reaction days so far this season. Under Armour (UAA) ranks at the very top of the list with a huge one-day gain of 27.71% after it reported a triple play on October 30th. (A triple play is a company that beats EPS estimates, beats revenue estimates, and raises guidance.)

    Vulcan Materials (VMC) ranks second with a gain of 17.49%, followed by Akamai Tech (AKAM), Newfield Exploration (NFX), and Twitter (TWTR). Other notables on the list of big winners this earnings season include International Paper (IP), Ford (F), PayPal (PYPL), Church & Dwight (CHD), Starbucks (SBUX), General Motors (GM), Procter & Gamble (PG), DowDuPont (DWDP), and Whirlpool (WHR). These certainly aren’t your typical high-fliers!

    [​IMG]

    On the downside, Mohawk (MHK) has been the worst performer this earnings season with a one-day decline of 23.86% after it reported a reverse triple play on October 25th. The stock missed EPS estimates, missed revenue estimates, and lowered guidance.

    Align Tech (ALGN) ranks second worst with a one-day decline of 20.2%, followed by Western Digital (WDC), Advanced Micro (AMD), and United Rentals (URI). Other notables on the list of losers include Equifax (EFX), Fortinet (not to be confused with the video game Fortnite!), Fortune Brands (FBHS), Kraft Heinz (KHC), Kellogg (K), General Electric (GE), AT&T (T), and Amazon (AMZN).

    [​IMG]

    The Jekyll and Hyde Earnings Season
    Nov 2, 2018

    In the early part of the current earnings reporting period that began back on October 12th, stocks couldn’t sniff a bid on their earnings reaction days. Since Monday, however, investors have been busy buying up stocks after they report.

    Below we show how stocks within sectors performed on their earnings reaction days from the start of earnings season through the morning of October 29th. We also show how stocks have performed on their earnings reaction days since the close on the 29th. As shown, for all stocks that have reported, the average stock fell 0.91% on its earnings reaction day through October 29th. Since then, the average stock that has reported has gained 1.56% on its earnings reaction day. That’s a huge shift in sentiment around earnings reports. Investors have flipped from selling the news to buying the news.

    There have been some interesting trends within sectors as well. Health Care, Materials, Energy, Technology, Consumer Staples, and Industrials stocks that reported got hit the hardest prior to the 29th. Since then, the cyclical sectors of this group (all of them except for Consumer Staples) have seen stocks fly higher by 1.3% or more on their earnings reaction days, while Consumer Staples stocks that have reported since the 29th have actually declined. Utilities and Communication Services stocks have averaged very small declines on their earnings reaction days over both time frames. Finally, Consumer Discretionary stocks have been a positive outlier throughout earnings season. Discretionary stocks that reported prior to the 29th bucked the trend and averaged gains on their earnings reaction days. And since the 29th, they’ve continued to see gains, averaging a one-day change of +2.1%.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  6. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Stock Market Analysis Video for November 2nd, 2018
    Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon


    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 11.4.18 - A Lot is Riding on Tuesday
    Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
     
  7. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 11.2.18-
    [​IMG]

    Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]

    ...and here are the rally levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]
     
  8. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    [​IMG]

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

    [​IMG]
     
  9. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Stockaholics come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

    ========================================================================================================
    ========================================================================================================

    It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

    I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead! :cool:
     
  10. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Here is a look at this upcoming week's Global Economic & Policy Calendar-
    [​IMG]
     
  11. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    [​IMG]

    Here are the most anticipated ERs for this upcoming week ahead (I'll also have the weekly earnings calendar posted in here as well once it's out)

    ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

    Monday 11.5.18 Before Market Open:
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    Monday 11.5.18 After Market Close:
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    Tuesday 11.6.18 Before Market Open:
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    Tuesday 11.6.18 After Market Close:
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    Wednesday 11.7.18 Before Market Open:
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    Wednesday 11.7.18 After Market Close:
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    Thursday 11.8.18 Before Market Open:
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    Thursday 11.8.18 After Market Close:
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    Friday 11.9.18 Before Market Open:
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    Friday 11.9.18 After Market Close:
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  12. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    And as promised here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
    ($SQ $ROKU $WYNN $HEAR $DBX $DIS $ATVI $TTD $TWLO $CVS $BKNG $TRXC $QCOM $ETSY $RACE $SYY $SOGO $TTWO $BHC $MTCH $SWKS $SEAS $LLY $NIO $PLUG $L $GRPN $FNKO $MYL $KORS $AAOI $ATHN $REGN $OXY $FOLD $ONVO $SRE $TEUM $CTL $AMC $RL)
    [​IMG]

    If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-
     
  13. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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  14. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Good morning to all.

    Here is this morning's pre-market stock movers & news thread for those of you wanting to get a quick read before today's open-
    [​IMG] <-- click there to read!

    Hope everyone has a great trading day & week ahead.
     
  15. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Market Up a little bit overall but tech shares down almost 1% :eek: AAPL down big again, I guess their decision to stop reporting the iPhone sales in their future earnings reports really making people to assume that the iPhone sales have peaked :eek:
     
  16. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Market up pretty nicely here with about an hour left. The futures could be interesting to watch tomorrow night due to the midterm. I was thinking we will get a relief rally on Wednesday, but I might change my mind if we have another nice rally tomorrow in the market :p
     
  17. Steven_Burt

    Steven_Burt 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Bear flag still in play on the SPX:

    spx_001.png
     
    stock1234, T0rm3nted and Stockaholic like this.
  18. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Good morning to all. Happy Midterm Election Day.

    Here is this morning's pre-market stock movers & news thread for those of you wanting to get a quick read before today's open-
    [​IMG] <-- click there to read!

    Hope everyone has a great trading day ahead.
     
  19. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
    Staff Member

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    Don’t forget to get out and vote!
     
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  20. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    Technology still has some weakness it has to work out.
    Oil going lower.

    On the other hand,
    Lithium is strong (ALB reports tomorrow),
    and Marijuana moving back higher.
     
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