Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of December 3rd! This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: Major Indices End of Week: Bird's Eye view of the Major Futures Markets on Friday: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD: What to Watch in the Week Ahead: Monday Earnings: Coupa Software, Mesa Air, Smartsheet Monthly vehicle sales 8:00 a.m. Fed Vice Chairman Randal Quarles 9:15 a.m. New York Fed President John Williams 9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI 10:00 a.m. ISM manufacturing 10:00 a.m. Construction spending 10:30 a.m. Fed Governor Lael Brainard 12:00 p.m. Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan Tuesday Earnings: Hewlett Packard Enterprises, AutoZone, Toll Brothers,HD Supply Holdings, Donaldson, Bank of Montreal, Dollar General,Guidewire Software, Marvell Tech 10:00 a.m. QFR Wednesday Earnings: H&R Block, Lululemon Athletica, Brown-Forman, American Eagle Outfitters, Lands' End, Korn/Ferry, Cloudera, Five Below 8:15 a.m. ADP employment 8:30 a.m. Productivity and costs 9:45 a.m. Services PMI 10:15 a.m. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell testimony Joint Economic Commitee 10:00 a.m. ISM nonmanufacturing 2:00 p.m. Beige book 8:15 p.m. Fed Vice Chairman Quarles Thursday Earnings: Kroger, Michael Cos, Thor Industries, Broadcom, Cooper Cos, Ulta Beauty, Hovnanian, Signet Jewelers, Duluth, American Outdoor Brands, Zumiez 8:30 a.m. Initial claims 8:30 a.m. International trade 10:00 a.m. Factory orders 11:00 a.m. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic 6:30 p.m. New York Fed's Williams 6:30 p.m. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Friday Earnings: Vail Resorts 8:30 a.m. Employment 10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment 10:00 a.m. Wholesale trade 1:00 p.m. New York Fed's Williams 3:00 p.m. Consumer credit
Fed & FOMO Rescue Stocks But Bond Yields, Bitcoin, & Black Gold Collapse Trump better deliver... China stocks eked out a modest gain on the week thanks to a late Friday liftathon ahead of this weekend's uncertainty... But Shanghai Composite closed down on the month (2nd month lower in a row) European markets were oddly quiet all week aside from the buying panic at the open on Monday...(but Italy handily outperformed) But on the month, a mixed bag with Italy and Spain green and the rest of the majors red... US equities soared on the week, with Nasdaq up 5.6% leading - the best week since Dec 2011... Trannies soared in November and thanks to the last few days of Powell and Trade hope, stocks were rescued from another ugly month... On the day, equity moves were dominated by optimistic headlines from Buenos Aires from both Trump and Xi sources... Best week for S&P since Dec 2011 and barekly managed to get above its 50DMA... November was all about two big short-squeezes... Goldman Sachs plunged again today to fresh 2-year lows, erasing all post-Trump gains - worst month since Sept 2011 FANG Stocks closed lower for the 3rd month in a row...(longest losing streak since Feb 2016)... despite panic-buying this last week...best week since January Credit markets tumbled for the 2nd month in a row - the worst 2-month drop since Jan 2016 for HY and IG (wider for 4 straight months). IG Credit compressed 5bps this week - best week since June (and HY CDX biggest weekly spread compression since February). Bonds and Stocks were bid in the last hour today... Extending their divergence post-Powell... On the week, 2s and 30s are unchanged with the belly lower in yield... Treasury yields tumbled in November - 10Y yields dropped over 13bps - the biggest monthly drop since Aug 2017 10Y Yields closed the week with a 3.00% handle... The short-end of the UST yield curve collapsed in November (biggest flattening since March)...7th flatter month in the last 9 (note that the curve accelerated its flattening post 10/17 FOMC Mins from Sept, and after the 11/08 FOMC statement)... with 2s5s almost inverted View image on Twitter David Rosenberg@EconguyRosie Nobody seems to see recession as a plausibility for 2019. Even the bears say it's 2020. Yet -- one part of the bond curve (2s/5s) is within 3 bps of inverting, suggesting it could come sooner, not later. 340 7:28 AM - Nov 30, 2018 183 people are talking about this Twitter Ads info and privacy The dollar index ended the month practically unchanged (hovering at its highest since May 2017) It was a serious rollercoaster ride of a week as Powell's dovishness pummeled the dollar and pre-G20 trade chatter seemed to spark buying... Bitcoin was down for the 5th week in a row but the 37% collapse in November is the worst month since August 2011 (Bitcoin Cash fell 60% on the month as it forked) With Bitcoin back below $4000 to end the week... Copper and Gold managed gains on the month, silver small losses, but crude collapsed... Gold managed to close higher for the 2nd month in a row But was unchanged against the yuan... But WTI collapsed to its worst month since 2008... Blowing back below $50 again today before spurious old news OPEC headlines sparked another ramp... As it seems 5 Oz of Silver for a barrel of WTI Crude was just too much again... Finally, we note that rate-hike expectations for 2019 have now collapsed to less than one!! just 22.25bps for the year (The Fed is still at 3 or 4 hikes)... And as Gluskin Sheff's David Rosenberg notes, this hypersensitive market is anything but healthy... David Rosenberg@EconguyRosie But a market that is so hitched to every word or nuance a central bank official has to say cannot possibly be viewed as a particularly healthy one.
Spoiler: Weekend Reading: The Powell Put Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, All it took was two 10% stock market corrections in a single year and some heavy “browbeating” from President Trump to reverse Jerome Powell’s hawkish stance on hiking interest rates. On Wednesday, Powell took to the microphone to give the markets what they have been longing for – the “Powell Put.” During his speech, Powell took to a different tone than seen previously and specifically when he stated that current rates are “just below” the range of estimates for a “neutral rate.” This is a sharply different tone than seen previously when he suggested that a “neutral rate” was still a long way off. Importantly, while the market surged higher after the comments on the suggestion the Fed was close to “being done” hiking rates, it also suggests the outlook for inflation and economic growth has fallen. With the Fed Funds rate running at near 2%, if the Fed now believes such is close to a “neutral rate,” it would suggest that expectations of economic growth will slow in the quarters ahead from nearly 6.0% in Q2 of 2018 to roughly 2.5% in 2019. Such will also correspond with a drop in inflationary pressures, as we noted previously, which is already occurring with the drop in energy prices. “More importantly, falling oil prices are going to put the Fed in a very tough position in the next couple of months as the expected surge in inflationary pressures, in order to justify higher rates, once again fails to appear. The chart below shows breakeven 5-year and 10-year inflation rates versus oil prices.” But here was the key comment that suggests the recent blasting by President Trump hit home: “Powell says moving too fast would risk shortening U.S. expansion, moving too slow could risk higher inflation and destabilizing financial imbalances.” President Trump has been adamant that Powell’s aggressiveness was jeopardizing the economic recovery. More interesting was when Powell reiterated they see “no major asset class, however, where valuations appear far in excess of standard benchmarks” I am not sure which benchmarks the Fed looks at exactly. The real risk to the market is not valuations at historically high levels by virtually every measure, but rather the risk of a credit related event due to the impact of higher rates on an abundance of lower-rated corporate debt. Nonetheless, in the short-term, the “bulls” got their Christmas wish as noted by Bloomberg economists “Tim Mahedy and Yelena Shulyatyeva: ‘Powell’s comment that rates are just below neutral is a step back from his comments earlier in the fall implying the FOMC still has a ways to go. This could be the first sign that the pace of rate hikes is set to slow next year.’ However, not all economists got the same dovish message as noted by Greg Robb via Marketwatch. “I really don’t think he was dovish, not really. He didn’t say inflation was weaker or the economy was weaker than we thought. It is a bit of a market overreaction.” -Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics. “The Fed has said they wanted to go above neutral. If they wanted to be neutral, they could have walked that back. He gave no hint of a pause in December.” – Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at CIBC All the “bulls” need now is for President Trump to “cave in” on his demands on China, a problem he created in the first place, at this weekends G-20 summit. I would expect a deal that is well short of any original objective as China agrees to issues which are economically unimportant to them. However, such will “look like a win” for the Trump administration and should clear the way for “Santa to visit Broad and Wall.” After that, it’s anyone’s guess, but the real issues plaguing the economy and the markets have not been resolved. Just something to think about as you catch up on your weekend reading list. Economy & Fed US Economy Is Strong – 3 Signs It Won’t Last by Lydia Depillis via CNN Business Why US-China Ceasefire Is Coming Soon by Anatole Kaletsky via Project Syndicate Levered Companies Layer Loans Over Loans by Sally Bakewell & Kelsey Butler via Bloomberg Is The US Economy TOO Strong? by Joe Calhoun via MyPersonalCFO The Fed’s Cheat Sheet by Eric Cinnamond Why Economists Insist Powell Wasn’t That Dovish by Greg Robb via MarketWatch Fed Warns Of “Large Plunge” In Markets If Risks Materialize by Jeff Cox via CNBC The Scariest Economic Chart Is Coming From China by Pedro de Costa via Forbes Fed’s Speech Sends Stocks Soaring, But Should It? by Mike Shedlock via Mishtalk Jerome Powell Sends Markets Soaringby Binyamin Appelbaum via NYT GM & Trump Go To Blows by Bruce Yandle via Washington Examiner GE’s $15 Billion Money Pit by Katherine Chiglinsky via Bloomberg The Smashing Effects Of A Trade War by Seth Levine via The Integrating Investor 10-Years Later – Did Bailouts Work by Kevin Williamson via National Review The Fed Finally Blinks by Kevin Muir via The Macro Tourist Markets Was Yesterday The “All Clear” Or “More Noise by Bryce Coward via Zerohedge Don’t Blame The Strong Dollar by Mark Hulbert via MarketWatch Bull Market Is More Fragile Than It Looks by Stephen Gandel via Fortune History Says FANG Feast Is Finished by Dana Lyons via The Lyons Share Blue Chip Companies Are Piling On Debt by William Cohan via NYT October Sucked, What Now? by Cliff Asness via AQR Capital Management Did Powell Just Push Investors Into A “Bear Trap” by Barbara Kollmeyer via MarketWatch The Uphill Struggle For Equities by Louis-Vincent Gave via Evergreen Gavekal Hope, Fear & Reality by Jamie Powell via FT Alphaville What You Need To Know To Sell Before It’s Too Late by Jared Dillian via MarketWatch Most Read On RIA Rising Rates Are Killing The Housing Market by Lance Roberts Lessons From Thanksgiving Dinner by John Coumarianos Why We Sold AAPL Stock by Vitaliy Katsenelson GM Cuts Jobs As Auto Bubble Begins To Burst by Jesse Colombo 15-Surprises For 2019 by Doug Kass The Difference Between A Bull & Bear Market by Lance Roberts UTX Faces Reality – Will Other Companies Follow Suit by Michael Lebowitz The Fallacy Of The Positive Impact From Falling Oil Prices by Lance Roberts Watch Research / Interesting Reads Goldman Sachs 2019 Economic Outlook via Goldman Sachs What Will The Next Financial Crisis Look Like by Daniel LaCalle via The Epoch Times GM: A Case Study To End Share Buybacks by Patrick Hill via The Progressive Ensign 21-Quotes From Henry Hazlitt by Gary Galles via FEE Ray Dalio’s Principles For Dummies by Matthew Walther via American Affairs Why MSFT Is A Better Bet Than AAPL by Paul La Monica via CNN Money Overparenting In America Created Generation Of Snowflakes by Shawn Langlois via Marketwatch Paul Volcker’s Wisdom For America by John Cassidy via The New Yorker Why GM Killed Cars & Jobs by Nathan Bomey via USA Today US Corporations Are Winning Their War On Capitalism by Jonathan Tepper via Bloomberg When Next Recession Hits, Will Benefits Be Enough? by Gary Burtless via Real Clear Markets “There is nothing like price to change sentiment.“ – Helene Meisler
Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2018- S&P sectors for the past week-
December Almanac: Top Performing S&P 500 Month December is the number one S&P 500 month and the second best month on the Dow Jones Industrials since 1950, averaging gains of 1.6% and 1.7% respectively. It’s also the top Russell 2000 (1979) month and second best for NASDAQ (1971) and Russell 1000. Rarely does the market fall precipitously in December. When it does it is usually a turning point in the market—near a top or bottom. If the market has experienced fantastic gains leading up to December, stocks can pullback. Trading in December is holiday inspired and fueled by a buying bias throughout the month. However, the first part of the month tends to be weaker as tax-loss selling and yearend portfolio restructuring begins. Regardless, December is laden with market seasonality and important events. Small caps tend to start to outperform larger caps near the middle of the month (early January Effect) and our “Free Lunch” strategy is served from the offerings of stocks making new 52-week lows on Triple-Witching Friday. An Almanac Investor Alert will be sent prior to the open on December 24 containing “Free Lunch” stock selections. The “Santa Claus Rally” begins on the open on Christmas Eve day and lasts until the second trading day of 2019. Average S&P 500 gains over this seven trading-day range since 1969 are a respectable 1.3%. This is the first indicator for the market in the New Year. Years when the Santa Claus Rally (SCR) has failed to materialize are often flat or down. The last six times SCR (the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the New Year) has not occurred were followed by three flat years (1994, 2004 and 2015) and two nasty bear markets (2000 and 2008) and a mild bear that ended in February 2016. As Yale Hirsch’s now famous line states, “If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall.” In the last seventeen midterm years, December’s rankings slip modestly to #3 S&P 500 (1.8%) and DJIA (1.5%) and #5 NASDAQ (0.6% since 1974). Small caps, measured by the Russell 2000, also perform well in midterm Decembers. Since 1982, the Russell 2000 has lost ground just twice in nine midterm years in December. The average small cap gain in all nine years is 0.7%. In 2010, Russell 2000 gained 7.8% in December. First trading day of December Lacks Holiday Cheer In the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2019, on page 86, it is shown that the first trading days of every month since September 1997 for DJIA have produced nearly the same amount of gains as all other days combined. Most consistent gains were produced by the first day of February, May and July. However December’s first trading day has not been as productive for DJIA or S&P 500. In the following table, the performance of the first trading day of December over the most recent 21 years is presented. Aside from disastrous 2008, first trading day of December losses have been relatively mild. The second worst loss, slightly less than 1% was in 2001. Although the table is full of years with 1% or greater gains, consistency is lacking. Since 2006, December’s first trading day has been weaker, down seven of the last eleven for DJIA and NASDAQ and eight of eleven for S&P 500. All Aboard the Santa Claus Rally Bandwagon This never gets old and it’s a testament to the brilliance and iconic thinking of Yale Hirsch, my illustrious father and founder of the Stock Trader’s Almanac. Everyone on Wall Street is either officially on the Santa Claus Rally bandwagon or vehemently against it. Either way, as soon as Thanksgiving comes around on the calendar – or even Halloween – all the talk on The Street is: “Will we or won’t we have a Santa Claus Rally?” But they all refer to it as the 4th Quarter Rally or the November-December Rally or the December Rally or the Halloween-New Year’s Rally or the Thanksgiving-Christmas Rally. But they have it all wrong. Yes, the market has a strong tendency to rally smartly in Q4, but that is not the Santa Claus Rally. The Santa Claus Rally was discovered and named by Yale Hirsch in 1972 and published in our 1973 Stock Trader’s Almanac. As defined by Yale and detailed on page 114 of the newly released 52nd Annual 2019 Edition: “Santa Claus tends to come to Wall Street nearly every year, bringing a short, sweet, respectable rally within the last five days of the year and the first two in January. This has been good for an average 1.3% gain since 1969 (1.3% since 1950 as well). Santa’s failure to show tends to precede bear markets, or times stocks could be purchased later in the year at much lower prices. We discovered this phenomenon in 1972.” To Wit, Yale’s witty rhyme which has become the headline of our “Santa Claus Rally” page and the battle cry of market pundits during the holiday season: If Santa Claus Should Fail To Call, Bears May Come To Broad And Wall At least Wikipedia and Investopedia have it right. For what it’s worth here are the results of the Santa Claus Rally and the full year since 1994. Every single year Santa failed to call the market either suffered a bear market or a flat year. Check the Almanac for the full history or do your own research. It’s not a perfect record, but as Yale wrote in 1972, the “record of daily percentage changes during the holiday season may not make interesting reading. However, we have examined it with a microscope and have found something of predictive value.” It’s still working… I am thankful for Yale and the Almanac.He just turned 95 and lives nearby with mother. Time for Santa? Posted by lplresearch 2018 has been a rocky year with a big dose of volatility, but could a late-year rally be in store for investors? History says it is quite possible. “Although the well-known Santa Claus rally is technically the last five days of the year and the first two of the new year, you can’t deny the fact that December tends to bring with it good vibes and stocks gains,” explained LPL Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. As our LPL Chart of the Day shows, since 1950, no month has a higher average return or has been higher more often than the month of December. With Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell opening the door to potentially fewer interest rate hikes in 2019, the last component likely needed for a rally is some type of agreement between the United States and China regarding the ongoing trade issues. Given the G20 summit is this weekend, many are expecting some type of potential resolution to be announced. Stay tuned! Last, an interesting stat: December has never been the worst month of the year for stocks. That’s right—since 1950, the S&P 500 Index has never had its largest monthly drop in December. Given that the worst month this year was October with its 6.9% drop, history would say to not expect a similar big drop to end 2018. Owning Bonds in the Latest Selloff Investors just endured their second correction in U.S. stocks this year, and bonds proved once again that diversification plays a vital role in managing risk during market turbulence. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped 20 basis points over nine straight trading sessions from November 9 to November 23, while the S&P 500 Index fell 10.2%. As shown in LPL’s Chart of the Day, diversified fixed income portfolios, represented by the Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index were flat during that two-week stretch. Since 2008, bonds have outperformed stocks in all 14 S&P 500 corrections by an average of 14.4%. A hypothetical portfolio with 60% in S&P 500 stocks and 40% in a diversified portfolio of bonds would have outperformed an all-equity portfolio by 5.8% in those corrections. “S&P 500 pullbacks generally arrive without warning,” said LPL Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch. “Investors need to be prepared for such events, and high-quality bonds may help manage risk for diversified long-term portfolios.” It may be tough to justify owning bonds in the current market environment, especially as the Federal Reserve eyes at least three rate hikes between now and the end of 2019. However, even in rising-rate environments, bonds have historically provided a hedge to stock market volatility, in addition to interest income and liquidity. Diversified portfolios may be especially important in the upcoming year. We expect more stock market volatility as economic growth moderates, rates continue to climb, and financial conditions tighten. Given our expectation for gradually higher interest rates, we recommend suitable investors generally move closer to the benchmark Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index but continue to position portfolios with below-benchmark interest rate sensitivity and above-benchmark credit risk. LEI-ding the Way to No Recession Posted by lplresearch The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) is one of our favorite economic indicators. It is designed to predict future movements in the economy based on a composite of 10 economic indicators (like manufacturers’ new orders, stock prices, and weekly unemployment claims) whose changes tend to precede shifts in the overall economy. Last week, the LEI painted a continued strong backdrop for future economic growth, as it rose slightly above the previous month and 5.9% year over year (YoY). Looking under the hood, the LEI has risen or been flat for 29 consecutive months, the longest streak in more than 30 years. While the yield curve, peak earnings, Federal Reserve (Fed) worries, and trade issues with China have been getting all the attention recently, all recessions going back to the early 1970s first saw the LEI turn negative YoY; and because of its solid track record of predicting recessions, the LEI is a component of LPL Research’s Five Forecasters. As our LPL Chart of the Day shows, the LEI is nowhere near turning negative. “The fact that the LEI has been very successful at forecasting recessions, and is one of the few forward-looking economic indicators, make it one of our favorites. The continued strong data suggest a recession is nowhere in sight and signal solid underlying fundamentals in the U.S. economy,” said Ryan Detrick, LPL senior market strategist. Last, examining all seven recessions going back to early 1970 shows some interesting developments. It turns out the LEI turned negative year over year on average eight months (with a median of six months) before a recession officially occurred. That is what we call a nice track record. Again, with the LEI up 5.8% year over year, we believe we are a long way from this economic indicator flashing any major recession warning. Earnings Triple Plays Since the End of Earnings Season Nov 30, 2018 As we discussed in an earlier blog post, after the most recent earnings season left something to be desired, many of the companies that have reported since the end of the season (11/15) have fared much better. In that time, over 100 companies have had an earnings report, and of these companies, just over ten percent have reported an earnings triple play, which means they beat on earnings, revenues, and raised guidance. You can always check here for our list of recent earnings triple plays. Below is a table and charts of the 12 triple plays since the end of earnings season. Most of these names are smaller technology companies. A few even are recent IPOs like YETI (YETI), Endava (DAVA), and Anaplan (PLAN). Autodesk (ADSK) is the only one that is a member of the S&P 500. As you might expect, the reactions to these earnings have been broadly positive, rising an average of 6.91% on their earnings reaction day. YETI is the only standout with an overly negative reaction during the day following earnings. Post Earnings Season Stats Relatively Healthy Nov 30, 2018 The third quarter earnings reporting period that spanned from early October through mid-November was a rough one for investors. The broad market struggled quite a bit during this period, and the actual earnings reports coming from corporate America were weaker relative to recent quarters. Since the unofficial earnings season ended with Wal-Mart’s (WMT) report on November 15th, though, earnings have been coming in a little better. Just over 100 companies have reported since the 15th, and below are a few stats worth highlighting. The first chart below shows the percentage of companies that beat consensus EPS estimates during the Q3 earnings season and since the season ended. As shown, the EPS beat rate since earnings season ended stands at 70%, which is 5.5 percentage points higher than the beat rate seen during the Q3 earnings season. Top-line beat rates have also improved a bit. During earnings season, only 57.6% of companies beat revenue estimates, while the beat rate stands at 62% for companies that have reported since then. Finally, stock prices are reacting much more positively to earnings reports as well. During earnings season, the average stock that reported fell 0.14% on its earnings reaction day (the first trading day following the earnings release). Since earnings season ended, the 100+ companies that have reported have averaged a one-day gain of 1.68% in response to earnings. Health Care Going Strong Nov 29, 2018 The Health Care sector has been on an impressive run this year. While not immune from the downturn this Fall, it has recovered nicely with exceptional relative strength. We update sector relative strength charts each week in our Sector Snapshot report to compare the performance of the various sectors relative to the broader market. Heading into the final month of the year, Health Care is outperforming the S&P 500 by an enormous margin. Granted it had been in a solid uptrend since the spring, but with the S&P 500 seeing a substantial amount of red since the peak on September 20th, it comes as no surprise that investors would flock to a more defensive sector. Although Health Care’s relative strength may not jump out when looking at the sector’s price chart, the pattern forming since the broader market peak looks promising. Since bottoming in late October, Health Care came back to test resistance at around 1,080. After failing that test, it pulled back making a higher low, and with another day of gains today, it has finally broken out above former resistance. In the table below, we highlight the 24 stocks within the Health Care sector that are up since the S&P 500’s closing high on 9/20. Cigna (CI) has been the best performer during this time rising 10.83%. Right on CI’s heels are Eli Lilly (LLY) and Merck (MRK) which have also both seen double-digit gains. While the same cannot be said for Cigna, LLY and MRK have also seen extraordinary gains YTD. HCA Healthcare (HCA) has the second-best growth YTD at 65.54% and also ranks the fourth best since the peak. Country Stock Markets as a Percent of World Nov 28, 2018 Below is a look at the percentage of total world stock market cap that each country’s stock market makes up. For each country, we show its percentage of world market cap as of today, as it stood on 9/20 when the S&P 500 made its last all-time high, as it stood on election day 2016, and as it stood 10 years ago. The US currently makes up 39.81% of world stock market cap, which is more than 30 percentage points more than the next closest country — Japan — at 7.76%. Note that Japan has moved into second place after being well behind China in November 2016. While the US has gained more than 3 percentage points of global market cap share since Trump was elected, China has lost a significant amount — falling from 10.21% down to 7.54%. At least based on this measure, Trump’s trade fight with China has benefited the US at the expense of China. Hong Kong remarkably makes up 6.75% of world stock market cap, which is well ahead of the UK (4.41%), France (3.14%), Germany (2.83%), and Canada (2.74%). Since the 9/20 peak for the S&P 500, the US has lost 0.49 percentage points of share, while China, Hong Kong, and Brazil have seen the biggest gains, so things have tightened a little bit between the US and China during the recent sell-off here in the US. 2018 Year-to-Date Country Stock Market Returns Nov 28, 2018 Below is an updated look at year-to-date stock market returns (in local currency) for 75 countries around the world. 2018 has turned into a red year for equities as the average country is now down 3.75% YTD. Just 20 countries (26.7%) are in the green for the year, while 55 are in the red. As shown, Ukraine ranks first with a gain of 83.46% (remember these returns are in local currency), followed by Jamaica (+32.6%), Qatar (+21.2%), and Brazil (+16.59%). Abu Dhabi (UAE) and Romania are the only other countries up 10%+ on the year. Of the G7 countries, the US ranks first with a minuscule gain of 1.82%. The US is also the only G7 country in positive territory for the year. Japan ranks 2nd best with a YTD decline of 2.58%, followed by France at -6.2%, Canada at -6.85%, and Britain at -8.89%. Italy and Germany rank at the bottom of the G7 with double-digit percentage declines of 12.5%. Of the “BRICs”, Brazil ranks first with a gain of 16.49%, followed by India at +4.87%. Russia is down 3.55%, while China is down 21.33%. China is actually the 3rd worst out of the entire list of 75 countries, and one of just four countries down 20%+. Only Kenya and Greece have done worse this year.
Stock Market Analysis Video for November 30th, 2018 Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon (VIDEO NOT YET UP!) ShadowTrader Video Weekly 12.2.18 - A breakout is coming Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 11.30.18- Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices- ...and here are the rally levels from current prices-
Stockaholics come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!- ======================================================================================================== Stockaholics Daily Stock Pick Challenge & SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (12/3) <-- click there to cast your daily market vote and stock pick! Stockaholics Weekly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll (12/3-12/7) <-- click there to cast your weekly market vote and stock picks! Stockaholics December 2018 Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll <-- click there to cast your monthly market vote and stock picks! ======================================================================================================== It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these! I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!
Here are the most anticipated ERs for this upcoming week ahead (I'll also have the weekly earnings calendar posted in here as well once it's out) ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time*** Monday 12.3.18 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Monday 12.3.18 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 12.4.18 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 12.4.18 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 12.5.18 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 12.5.18 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 12.6.18 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 12.6.18 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 12.7.18 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 12.7.18 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE.
And as promised here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead- ($LULU $MOMO $AVGO $AZO $DG $OKTA $ULTA $KR $FIVE $COUP $DOCU $FNSR $RH $MRVL $CLDR $RMR $AEO $BMO $SIG $HPE $TOL $ZS $MDB $THO $PLCE $GMS $HDS $OLLI $PDCO $HQY $AOBC $MOV $SMAR $BNED $DLTH $HOME $CONN $MIK $GIII $AVYA $BIG $FGP) If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here- Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning December 3rd, 2018 <-- click there to view!
Trump designates December 5 as national day of mourning for George H.W. Bush, markets to close https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/01/former-president-george-hw-bush-dead-at-age-94.html
NYSE, Nasdaq Stock Markets Will Close Wednesday In Honor Of George H.W. Bush https://www.investors.com/news/nyse-nasdaq-stock-markets-will-close-president-george-h-w-bush/
Good Monday morning to all. Welcome to December! Here is the pre-market thread for those of you wanting to get a quick read before today's open- <-- click there to read! Hope everyone has a great first trading day of the final month of 2019!
so, does anyone here know how the economic and earnings reports are going to be impacted by this wednesday's market closure? the last time we had one of these market closures to observe "day of mourning" for a death of a former u.s. president was back on january of 2007 i believe. i don't really remember how that worked though. does everything just get pushed over to the next day (so in this case, thursday?). i've been keeping up with earnings whispers too, and they've been doing a pretty good job updating everyone on which companies are and aren't reporting on what days, etc. how about the econ. reports though? also, i've no idea if the cme globex market (futures) will have electronic trading on wednesday. typically during major holidays you'll have a shortened session, but not sure about this wednesday. if anyone can chime in here and let us know how this might work that'd be greatly appreciated.
