good to hear that @stock1234 haha, yeah i wasn't actually completely aware of it myself until just about a day after cnbc kept mentioning that the spx had dipped into bear market on xmas eve (which it did on an "intraday basis"), but not on a "closing" basis which is how this is typically gauged from many of the big names like stock trader's almanac, etc. so 2,930.75 was the ATH close from 9/20, and 2,351.10 was the low close on xmas eve. = -19.78% (whoops i had the 8 and 7 switched around originally ) literally missed it by that much haha.
Good Thursday morning to all. Happy Valentine's Day! Here is this morning's pre-market news thread for those of you wanting to get a quick read before today's open- <-- click there to read! Hope everyone has a good trading day ahead today.
Morning Lineup – Weak Economic Data Feb 14, 2019 Futures had been drifting higher this morning, but a ton of economic data was just released and it wasn’t good. PPI missed on the headline but was stronger than expected at the core. Retail Sales for December were much weaker than expected, and Jobless Claims also came in considerably higher than expected. Jobless Claims have now been steadily drifting higher with the four-week moving average reaching its highest level in over a year and leading to the question, have we seen the low in jobless claims? With all the strength we have seen in equities so far this year, it’s pretty amazing that there has been practically no movement in the long-end of the Treasury curve, as the 10-year yield remains below 2.7% this morning. With little changes in long-term rates, the yield curve (the spread between the yield on the 10-year and 3-month US Treasuries) remains below 30 basis points and is actually flatter now than it was at the end of December. As we have repeatedly mentioned in the past, though, flat yield curves aren’t necessarily a bad thing for US equity prices or a negative signal for the economy. It isn’t until the curve inverts (and then starts to re-steepen) that you have to start raising your guard.
kinda surprised just a little that we aren't down more today, especially after the run we have had lately ... holy retail sales # miss batman this AM t'was the worst miss in about a decade i think i heard? i guess they're largely attributing this to the gov't shutdown last month which makes sense, so markets mostly shrugging it off since that gives the fed more reason to do absolutely zilch this year kind of ridiculous though how we're so fed driven nowadays ... i guess if you took the fed out of the picture we would be testing the lock limits on the futures
I still kinda feel like it is still more trade talk driven. There was a rumor out this morning on that big candle flush about an hour ago that talks were not going well. A breakdoown in talks and I believe we will sell off hard.
Wow I just got up, that’s was a horrible retail sales number Looks like either market is shrugging off this time and thinking this might be the one off event and will rebound in coming months, or “bad news is good news” for the market again since data like this meaning the FED probably won’t be tightening again anytime soon Inflation data are weak lately too so there is a pretty good chance that we won’t see a rate hike at all in the first half of this year Looks like jobless claims are up too, but still at a healthy level and not something to worry about just yet
I didn’t get a chance to read the trade talk news yet, but yeah trade talk will definitely dominate the market in the coming weeks especially before that Match 1st deadline. If there is no deal but they delay hiking the tariffs to 25%, i could still see the market celebrating
Curious to see what today’s outcome will be have a feeling volatility is coming. Just my one-sided opinion but I feel like it’s going to be downhill from here.
man SPY has been pinned around yesterday's close since right before lunch - major theta burn for the monthly options expiring tomorrow....
interesting bit of stat i just ran across this afternoon thought to share in here as well. since 1950 the spx has been up both jan. and feb. to start a year 27 times. this year could be # 28. interestingly 25 of those times the final 10 months were green (only 1987 and 2011 were not). the avg. return was just over +12% in those final 10 months vs. on avg. +7.6%
