Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of February 25th! This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: Major Indices End of Week: Major Futures Markets on Friday: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD: What to Watch in the Week Ahead: Monday Earnings: Tenneco, Shake Shack, Potbelly, Range Resources, Terex, Allison Transmission, Tenet Healthcare, Mosaic, Etsy 10 a.m. Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan and Vice Chair Richard Clarida, session with community 5 p.m. Kaplan and Clarida Q&A Tuesday Earnings: Home Depot, Eaton Vance, Discovery, Bank of Montreal, Mylan, Nabors Industries, Auto Zone, Weight Watchers,Planet Fitnexx, Axon, Macy's, Sempra Energy, EOG Resources, Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Planet Fitness, Whiting Petroleum, Cracker Barrel, JM Smucker 8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed non manufacturing 9 a.m. S&P Case-Shiller home prices 9:30 a.m. FHFA home prices 10 a.m. New home sales 10 a.m. Consumer confidence 10:00 a.m. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell testifies before Senate Committee Wednesday Earnings: TJX Cos, Lowe's, Bayer, Chesapeake Energy, Wingstop, Cushman and Wakefield, Hostess Brands, Best Buy, Royal Ahold, Rowan Cos, Booking holdings, Apache, Campbell Soup, Royal Ahold, HP, L Brands, Petrobras. Square, Box, 10 a.m. Pending home sales Fed Chairman Powell testifies before House committee Thursday Earnings: JC Penney, A-B InBev, Ambev, SeaWorld, Nielsen, NRG Energy, PG&E, Toronto-Dominion, Canadian Imperial Bank, AMC Networks, JD.com, Party City, Keurig Dr. Pepper, Gap, Nordstrom,Workday, VMWare, Pure Storage, Autodesk, Dell 8:30 a.m. Jobless claims 8:30 a.m. Q4 GDP 8:30 a.m. Advanced economic indicators 8:50 a.m. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic 9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI 12:15 p.m. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker 1 p.m. Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan Friday Earnings: Foot Locker, WPP Group, Tribune Media 8:30 a.m. Personal income 8:30 a.m. Core PCE 10 a.m. ISM manufacturing 10 a.m. Consumer sentiment 10 a.m. Construction spending 1:15 p.m. Atlanta Fed's Bostic
Dow Rallies To Best Start In 55 Years As Earnings, Economic Data Collapse The Dow is up 9 weeks in a row (longest win streak since 1995) and is up 8 straight weeks to start a year for the first time since 1964. The S&P 500 is having its best start to a year since 1987 Both of which are odd given that earnings are collapsing... And macro data is crashing... All of which reminds us of... China had another huge week... But Europe was mixed with the FTSE lower and Dax higher... Another (holiday-shortened) week of gains for US equities led by Small Caps... Buybacks dominated the week once again... But today saw a huge short-squeeze... Seems like RP strategies are back in control as Stocks and Bonds are bought and sold together... Treasury yields were mixed this week with the long-end higher (30Y +2bps) and the rest of the curve lower in yield... The dollar weakened on the week Strong week for Yuan again... Huge week for cryptos with Ether up over 20%, Bitcoin up over 10%...best week for Bitcoin since Mid-Dec 2018. Copper gained the most on the week - amid China optimism - but all the major commodities gained on the week... Copper is at its highest since July 2018... But Baltic Dry is collapsing... Gold gained in USD terms but was weaker in Yuan terms... We give the last word to The Onion, who seemed to sum things up perfectly: Attributing the gains this morning to them being “just kinda in the mood,” top Wall Street investors confirmed the U.S. stock market soared in early trading Friday after they decided it would be a fun thing to make happen. “Often, you’ll see the S&P 500 rise because of a jobs report or international trade news, but other times it happens just because making the market go way up is what we felt like doing that day,” said veteran fund manager Jack Malcolm, who, like hundreds of his colleagues nationwide, reportedly woke up “feeling sorta blah” and chose to send all major U.S. indices climbing as a “nice little pick-me-up.” “To be sure, the catalysts for strong market performance can be complex, and it’s not always easy to put your finger on the factors pushing growth. But this morning we made the Dow rise, like, hundreds of points for no particular reason beyond wanting to see a big spike go way up to the top of the chart. And it did! It looked pretty awesome.” At press time, sources confirmed the entire global economy had entered a major recession after investors thought it would be cool to do that for a while. As Gluskin Sheff's David Rosenberg notes, the Citi Global Economic Surprise index, at -21.6, is nearly the same as it was at the Dec 24th market low. It's now 227 days below zero -- only exceeded by the Great Recession of 2008-09. "Markets are totally devoid of economic realities."
Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2019- S&P sectors for the past week-
Pre-Election Year March: Small-Caps Perfect 10 for 10 Turbulent March markets tend to drive prices up early in the month and batter stocks at month end. Julius Caesar failed to heed the famous warning to “beware the Ides of March” but investors have been served well when they have. Stock prices have a propensity to decline, sometimes rather precipitously, during the latter days of the month. In March 2001, DJIA plunged 1469 points (-11.8%) from March 9 to the 22. Normally a decent performing market month, March performs even better in pre-election years (see Vital Statistics table below). In pre-election years March ranks: 4th best for DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 1000 (January, April and December are better). Pre-election year March rank #3 for Russell 2000. Pre-election year March has been up 13 out of the last 14 for DJIA. In fact, since inception in 1979, the Russell 2000 has a perfect, 10-for-10 winning record. Small-Caps Continue to Charge Higher As of the close today, DJIA is up 3.8% so far in February. S&P 500 is up 3% and NASDAQ has gained 2.9%. Small-caps, measured by the Russell 2000 are up 5.5% so far. This performance is well above historical average levels at this point in February over the last 21 years. Major indexes are also exceeding pre-election-year February average performance by a comfortable margin. As we pointed out in yesterday’s post, this type of market strength has typically been a reliable indicator for further gains. January-February Gains A Strong Sign At Friday’s close February 15 the S&P 500 was up 10.7% YTD. The top 30 YTD gains at the February high are ranked by gain in Table 1 above. S&P 500 tacked on gains in 25 of those 30 years for an average gain of 11.3%. Overlay our January indicator Trifecta and two losses disappear. In the second table below the 27 years that the S&P 500 gained ground in both January and February since WWII appear. There is only one full year loss on the S&P cash index in 2011 and it’s puny, and there are only 2 losses in the following March-December period in 1987 and 2011 – both were in Trifecta years. No matter how you slice it, gains earlier in the year are generally a solid indication for gains the rest of the year. When Is Overbought Bullish? Posted by lplresearch What more can we say about the amazing rebound of the stock market since December 24? For the first time since 1997, the S&P 500 Index is up more than 10% for the year through this point in February. Of course, it was the worst December for stocks since the Great Depression—making a larger bounce possible—but the rebound over the past two months has been historic. That begs the question: What does it mean when stocks are overbought on many short-term levels? “Yes, stocks are quite extended near -term,” explained LPL Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick, “but historically, extended markets have tended to deliver continued outperformance over the next several months.” We can see this by looking at the number of stocks in the S&P 500 that are above their 50-day moving average and the subsequent performance of the index. That number recently cleared 90%, which was one of the highest readings ever. And after 90% of stocks in the S&P 500 go above their 50-day moving average, their 1-, 3-, and 6-month returns actually have shown continued strength. In fact, as the LPL Chart of the Day shows, three months after hitting that 90% mark, the S&P 500 has been higher 12 of the previous 13 times going back to 1990. This tells us the easy part of the recent rally is over, and we do see reasons to expect some type of consolidation or well-deserved pullback at some point, but we still think the stage is potentially set for new highs later this year. More Good News Posted by lplresearch As this week’s Weekly Market Commentary suggested, over the near term equities appear quite stretched, but overall we continue to think the bull market has plenty of life left. Today, we’ll take a look at market breadth—one of our favorite technical indicators—to explore whether it may be pointing to better times ahead for equities. Market breadth measures how many stocks are participating in the movement of broader indexes. One of the easiest ways to measure this is via advance/decline (A/D) lines on various exchanges. An A/D line is a ratio of how many stocks go up versus down each day. The thinking is, if gains are caused by increases in many stocks, then there are plenty of buyers and the upward trend should likely continue, all else equal. On the other hand, if an upward move in a broad market gauge is driven by relatively few stocks, this can be a warning sign of cracks in the bull’s armor. Today’s LPL Chart of the Day shows that the NYSE Common Stock Only A/D line has broken out to a new all-time high. “This is another clue to market participants that things are actually quite healthy under the surface. When advance/decline lines are breaking out to new highs, history tells us that stocks usually aren’t too far behind,” explained LPL Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. The Bespoke Report — Equities Still Truckin’ Feb 22, 2019 Markets continue to rally as equity investors take an optimistic view of earnings results and look past weakening global economic data. Here in the US, along with a relatively solid earnings season, the Federal Reserve has stepped its foot off the brakes. Oil prices are rallying, despite very robust US production numbers, and other industrial commodities are getting in on the same game. Abroad, Chinese stocks have led the way higher even as data in a range of global economies has deteriorated. Along with in-depth earnings season coverage, we review what’s been happening in markets around the world from equities to commodities to credit. We cover everything you need to know as an investor in this week’s Bespoke Report newsletter. To read the Bespoke Report and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform has to offer, start a two-week free trial to one of our three membership levels. You won’t be disappointed! “Has Buffett Lost His Touch?” – Here We Go Again Feb 22, 2019 Shares of Kraft Heinz (KHC) are down nearly 30% today following a big earnings miss and the disclosure that the company has been subpoenaed by the SEC. KHC accounts for more than 7% of Berkshire Hathaway’s’ equity portfolio, and that stock is trading down close to 2% ahead of this weekend’s earnings report on a day when the broader market is firmly in positive territory. Following this weekend’s report, Warren Buffett himself will be all over financial television on Monday to talk about all things Berkshire and its portfolio of companies. Given the confluence of events, though, the question of whether or not Buffett has lost his touch is once again making the rounds. Remember, it was just a week ago that Coca-Cola (KO), which accounts for over 10% of the Berkshire equity portfolio, dropped over 8% after it reported earnings. In the case of KO, last Thursday’s decline was the most negative reaction to earnings the stock has had since 2002! With two stocks comprising 18% of Berkshire’s total equity portfolio getting demolished on earnings, you can’t blame traders for being a little more skeptical and taking some profits in their Berkshire positions. Year to date, the stock is one of less than 35 in the S&P 500 that are actually in the red YTD. While both KHC and KO have been earnings disasters for Berkshire, the rest of the equity holdings in the portfolio have been performing just fine so far this year. The table below lists the top 20 equity holdings of Berkshire Hathaway as of the end of 2018, and for each stock, we include its weight in the portfolio as well as the YTD change. Of the top 20 holdings, KHC and KO are the only two in the red YTD, while stocks like Moody’s (MCO), Charter (CHTR), Verisign (VRSN), General Motors (GM), and Bank of America (BAC) have all been big winners. Only the top twenty names are listed below, but the weighted average YTD performance of Berkshire’s entire equity portfolio has been a gain of 7.77%. Granted, that’s over three percentage points less than the S&P 500, but it’s hardly a disaster and actually quite impressive when you take into account the big declines in KHC and KO. Country Stock Market YTD Performance So Far in 2019 Feb 22, 2019 Below is a look at the performance of 75 country stock markets around the world so far in 2019. These numbers show each country’s year-to-date percentage change (not total return) in local currency. It would be hard to imagine a better start to a year for global equities. Of the 75 country stock markets in our table, 64 (85.3%) are in the green, and the average gain across all countries stands at +6.38%. Bermuda and Argentina are the two best performing stock markets so far with gains of north of 20%, while Oman has been the worst with a YTD decline of 6.2%. Notably, the G7 countries are performing very well in 2019, with all 7 outperforming the average. Canada is up the most of the G7 countries with a YTD gain of 11.94%, and the US is not far behind at +11.33%. Three of the four “BRIC” countries are up more than 10%, with China leading the way at +12.44%. India is the only BRIC country in the red for the year. Broad Based Breadth Feb 22, 2019 One aspect of the rally in stocks this year that we can’t stress enough is how strong breadth has been. Besides the fact that the equal-weighted S&P 500 is outperforming the market cap weighted index by close to three percentage points YTD, the vast majority of S&P 500 Industry Groups are also either right at or very close to YTD highs. The table below lists S&P 500 Industry Groups that, along with the S&P 500, hit YTD highs so far today. Of the 60 Industry Groups, 26 hit YTD highs today and five of them are already up 20% YTD! In addition to the 26 Industry Groups above, another 16 Industry Groups traded within 1% of a YTD high today and three of those are also up over 20% YTD. Adding both lists together, 70% of S&P 500 Industry Groups either traded at or came within 1% of hitting a YTD high this morning. That’s broad!
Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 2.22.19- Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices- ...and here are the rally levels from current prices-
Stockaholics come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!- ======================================================================================================== Stockaholics Daily Stock Pick Challenge & SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (2/25) <-- click there to cast your daily market vote and stock pick! Stockaholics Weekly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll (2/25-3/1) <-- click there to cast your weekly market vote and stock picks! Stockaholics Weekly T/A Charting Challenge (2/25-3/1) <-- click there to participate! ======================================================================================================== It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these! I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!
Stock Market Analysis Video for February 22nd, 2019 Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon (VIDEO NOT YET UP!) ShadowTrader Video Weekly 2.24.19 - Rebull Without a Pause Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead. ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time*** Monday 2.25.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Monday 2.25.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 2.26.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 2.26.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 2.27.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 2.27.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 2.28.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 2.28.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 3.1.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 3.1.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!
And as promised here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead- ($SQ $HD $CHK $ETSY $JD $M $MDR $PCG $FIT $AMRN $LOW $JCP $WTW $KOS $PANW $BKNG $ABB $BBY $SPLK $VEEV $AZO $TEX $TRXC $SHAK $NTNX $ECA $JT $WDAY $CRI $DNR $TNDM $AWI $DORM $GWPH $HTZ $TREE $PLAN $NSA $ICPT $FLXN $BNS $CROX $RRC) If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here- Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning February 25th, 2019 <-- click there to view!
amazing indeed! this is now officially the longest weekly win streak (at least for the DJ30) since 1995
Trump says he will delay additional China tariffs originally scheduled to start on March 1 https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/24/trump-us-will-delay-china-tariffs-scheduled-to-start-on-march-1.html Could fade tomorrow morning but Futures now up a little bit on the news
Yeah, the downside this week could come from the abundance of retailers reporting earnings. But Monday regular hours should be green. Chinese A-shares going to be breaking through this week?
Good Monday morning to all. Here is this morning's pre-market news thread for those of you wanting to get a quick read before today's open- <-- click there to read! Hope everyone has a great trading day and week ahead.
Morning Lineup – Shanghai Express Feb 25, 2019 Here we go again. For what could possibly be the 100th time in the last two years now, futures are rallying on positive news regarding trade negotiations with China. The President tweeted last night that the US would be delaying planned increases on Chinese goods that were set to take effect on 3/1. Chinese stocks also had a monster night rallying over 5%. Now that China is out of the penalty box for the time being, though, it looks like the President is moving on to OPEC and telling the cartel that oil prices are too high and that they should “relax and take it easy.” While Chinese equities rallied overnight for reasons related to trade and other developments, the long-term chart of the Shanghai Composite is currently at an interesting juncture. Looking at a chart of the index going back to 2015, last night’s rally sets the stage for a test fo the long-term downtrend starting at the 2015 highs. If bulls can take the Shanghai above this downtrend line, Chinese stocks could be off to the races.
interesting bit of stat regarding the DJ30's longest weekly winning streak since '95: 4 of the past 5 weekly winning streaks that went 9 in a row had week #10 also in the green. the last time it happened (1995), the DJ30 went up another +26% one year later. This occurrence has happened 15 other times since 1900 and is up a median of +17.7% a year later, vs. on average a return of +7.1%. meanwhile, it's looking highly likely that the SPX will be green in both jan. and feb. which has happened 27 times since 1950...the final 10 months of the year were higher 25 times and up over +12% on average. but wait! there's more lol... today could be the 35th straight day where the SPX has closed above its 10ma. would be longest streak in nearly 9 years.
