Looks like I might be shopping EOD today. Volatility is about to break out from short term resistance. TZA already opened above short term resistance. SPXS is about to break out from short term resistance. SQQQ is the laggard on my charts.
February Employment Report Preview Mar 6, 2019 Heading into Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report for February, economists are expecting an increase in payrolls of 181K, which would be a decline from January’s monster report which came in above expectations at 304K. In the private sector, economists are expecting an increase of 180K, which would imply a similar decline versus January as the headline reading. The unemployment rate is expected to tick back down to 3.9% from last month’s reading of 4.0%. Average hourly earnings are expected to grow at a rate of 0.3% versus the 0.1% reading last month. Higher wage growth is probably not something this market wants to see, but given last month’s weaker than expected reading, a move back to 0.3% would likely not be too problematic. Finally, average weekly hours are expected to be unchanged at 34.5. Ahead of the report, we just published our eleven-page preview of the February jobs report. This report contains a ton of analysis related to how the equity market has historically reacted to the monthly jobs report, as well as how secondary employment-related indicators we track looked in February. We also include a breakdown of how the initial reading for February typically comes in relative to expectations and how that ranks versus other months. One topic we cover in each month’s report is the S&P 500 stocks that do best and worst from the open to close on the day of the employment report based on whether or not the report comes in stronger or weaker than expected. In other words, which stocks should you buy, and which should you avoid? The table below highlights the best-performing stocks in the S&P 500 from the open to close on days when the Non-Farm Payrolls report has been better than expected over the last two years. Of the top performing stocks on days when NFP beats expectations, nine sectors are represented, but Consumer Discretionary leads the way with eight. Mattel (MAT) has been the best performing stock with an average open to close gain of 2.46%, but another seven have seen average open to close gains of more than 1%. In terms of consistency, Cognizant Technology (CTSH) leads the way with open to close gains 85% of the time.
I did not make any purchases at EOD - volatility is right up against the short term resistance. If there is a breakout tomorrow - I might be a buyer into a dip.
Good Thursday morning to all. Here is this morning's pre-market news thread for those of you wanting to get a quick read before today's open- <-- click there to read! Hope everyone has a good trading day ahead today.
Morning Lineup — 3/7/18 Mar 7, 2019 Futures have been bouncing around the flat-line this morning ahead of the weekly initial jobless claims report. We continue to see downside mean reversion as overbought conditions get worked off. You can see this mean reversion in our chart of the percentage of overbought and oversold stocks in the S&P 500 below.
Ugh, missed this pop south this morning. One thing I've learned is not to chase - when I chase I wind up paying way more than I was willing for my position.
Inverse ETFs taking another run at resistance - if they break through and hold - I will be buying at the close.
Well looks like we could be heading for the biggest weekly loss of 2019 unless we have a pretty good day tomorrow Bonds and the dollar are up after the stimulus announced by the ECB. High dividend sectors like utilities and real estate outperforming today due to lower treasury yields. With growth outlook looking weaker around the world, as of now it looks like we will get no rate hike from the FED this year
hmm, tomorrow we get the nfp's right? maybe a soft # will reverse things? or are we now in an all news = bad news?
Seems like all news are bad news this week At least for this week, market isn't celebrating on weak numbers and more stimulus from the central banks. I am guessing market wants a not too cold and not too hot number again.
are the numbers in the morning? I don't think I will be opening any new positions at the close today. Everything looks to be at support/resistance - will wait to see which way it is going to break
hmm, so i wonder if market direction all hinges on the trade deal later this month i believe it is right? i'm not actually sure on the exact date but i believe i heard we could get resolution as soon as this month? or is that already baked into the cake as well. if the trade deal doesn't do it, then i don't know what'll get us to finally break through that 2800 resist with conviction. ecb stimulus, fed potentially not hiking at all this year, that's pretty dovish ... but i wonder if the fed came out today and said they'll do QE5 would that do the trick? i can't say i'm too encouraged (at least short-term) with that failure to hold 2800 at this point. i was end of last week, but now this week it's looking like that might have just been a "look above and fail" let's see what happens after tomorrow's NFP's, but i'm more interested to see how the trade deal and brexit resolution turn out later this month. markets are pretty overextended here though, so a pause/pullback made sense.
