I only have a 5y trading horizon. I am one of those people who did not save for retirement and am forced to work until I die. Just going long with stocks and ETF's needs a longer time horizon. I simply waited too long. I have discovered that the inverse ETF world would give me the flexibility within my 5 years to time the market. I have looked at various timing services with great results which are rather expensive for my low dollar portfolio. One of them fits my trading style but you only get a 3 day trial then you got to lay out $300.00 plus for a year of service....no monthly available. I am using M1 Finance as my Roth IRA broker. It's flexibility has allowed me to experiment A LOT. Building my pies with various slices with fractional share size to see what happens with my various ideas has been helpful. I CANNOT BEAT THE S & P 500 (so why not just trade SPY, DIA, QQQ ?). I have totally transformed my pie this week. I still am in the experimenting phase and have discovered that what I feel strongly about one day changes into the next day. This flip flopping and then returning back full circle to what I have started with is revealing to me that my emotions can be a problem with staying the course. I must experience this flip flopping to get grounded into the fundamentals that I believe in. Thank Gawd for M1 Finance as I have not lost any money (easy to do in this perpetual bull). I have realized that time is not on my side and that I really need to arrive at a bullet proof portfolio soon. My vision is to just trade the SPY, DIA and QQQ and goose it with some good stock picks to put it over the edge (beat the S & P ) with the Best Stocks Now App. My use of inverse ETF's to time with would allow me to suffer less drawdown while on the journey. Perhaps I should just break down and lay out the $300 plus for a year of market timing signals and build a pure timing portfolio on M1 Finance. I can only use inverse ETF's to short with as M1 Finance does not have shorting available. It was a great comfort to me to realize the 5Y horizon does not lock me out of Stock Market Trading because of Inverse ETF possibilities. So these are my base fundamentals that I have discovered about myself through my emotional swings and full circles: Going long and short with ETF's is comfortable. Beating the S & P 500 is a goal that keeps me in check Weekly trading signals seems more appropriate for my trading style. Timing the market has a bad rap. This Forum does not allow me to share the link to my pie...sorry Ok this is a cocktail lounge...so I will have another drink Thank You....
I have a 4 segment bond approach to park 60% of my cash in. ( I am 60 years old). < 3 months (SHV) iShares Short Treasurey Bond ETF 3-6 months (ICSH) iShares Ultra Short Term Bond ETF 3-6 months (FLOT) iShares Floating Rate Bond ETF 6-18 months (MINT) Pimco Enhanced Short Maturity Active ETF 6-18 months (NEAR) iShares Short Maturity Bond Fund ETF <18 months (IGSB) iShares Short-Term Corporate Bond ETF <18 months (SHY) iShares 1-3 Year Treasurey Bond ETF The other 40% I play with. I will post my losses right here in Stockoholics. He he MB
I have 8 pies set up with the remaining 40% (5% each) of my portfolio with fractional trade size for the speculative side of my small portfolio of under 10K: (warning: this changes a lot..I mean a lot and can make for a good read). I will try. International (all me) Stock Market Indexes (stockoodles) Metals & Minerals (all me) Conservative (subscription newsletter) Monthly Payers (subscription newsletter) 7 best Dividend Aristocrats (subscription newsletter) Best Stocks Now A+ (app subscription) Stockoodles on the verge of blasting off (free website for my haunts) MB P.S. I would like to request from the site administrator that it would be allowed for users of M1 to share their pie here with a link (this is not advertising). Also how do I get my last name removed from these threads?
I find that ETF's move slower and have less volatility. Considering my age and time horizon these are preferred. I am constantly fighting with individual stock purchases and wishing I were younger. I still gamble and try to goose my returns with these individual haunts. I very much like the idea of shortening a bull cycle with going long with inverse funds and make the cycle a non-issue. I simply do not have time to endure 10 plus years of adding to my losses to ride out the next bear cycle...so inverse is positive to me....wouldn't it be great to make money in a falling market rather then only fortifying a position wishing and hoping for a quick turn-around? I know, I know..market timing is a losing strategy and the market has always gone up, but its nice to dream. MB P. S. My APY is 40.82% and my ROI is 11.29% thus far since December 26, 2018. (not bad for having a lot of fun with my ROTH IRA). But again it saddens me to realize that I am not beating the S & P.
considering that I am trading/investing a ROTH...tax reporting is very easy. no wash sale concerns, ETF taxable gains....etc. I am maxing out my contributions (7k this year). At the best...I can double my money with good choices and deposit maybe 50k more...so my expectations are a measly 100k in this ROTH. I am glad I have a reverse mortgage. My ROTH is not much if wifey and I live to be 100 years old. My spreadsheet states that currently I will get $18.84/mo and Wifey will get $29.10/month if I die (she is older which is a good thing). It goes up each day as we grow 1 day older and I make additional contributions and profits to the ROTH. It would be nice to be able to live on an extra 3k/month but with these numbers I would have to work way past 65 and do very well with my positions. I really blew it by waiting so long to prepare for our retirement...so all I can do is try damage control AND I CAN'T LOOSE MONEY BECAUSE OF BAD TRADING POSITIONS. mb (electricsavant) P. S. I am not new to trading (but am new to investing in the stock market) and have invited a few folks to visit this thread.
WinningInvesting has a free website for market timing with a track record to prove that it works most of the time. So why doesn't market timing work? I am not trading his signals yet...only observing them. Harry Domash is quite a reputable dividend investor and I use his scan with the finviz scanner. Es
Yes it has been quite easy in this perpetual bull market environment. I am looking to have just as good of a strategy for the downside. As long as there is positive earnings and positive earning projections the market will continue to go up. The market simply is driven by earning reports. As long as we have President Trump this market will go up. But what will I do when the market turns? Es
M1 finance only allows longs. It's great for small accounts and investors that are building their portfolio. So when the market turns I plan on using inverse ETF's. I need a good timing service that has a historical track record. This timing service that I am in search of should also get me on the right side of the market when it chops around like now. I guess I am wishing for something that may not be made public. I often think that there are people out there that are making a fortune in the market quietly and to they keep to themselves. es
some recent changes that I want to try... I park my cash here: (40%) 10% Bonds <3 Months 10% Bonds 3-6 Months 10% Bonds 6-18 Months 10% Bonds >18 Months I have some Dividend payers: (27%) 9% Conservative ETF's updated monthly 9% Monthly Payers ETF's updated monthly 9% 7 Dividend Aristocrats updated monthly (Individual Stocks) Speculative updated daily: (21%) 7% ETF Channel free website Top 3 ETF's 7% "Buy Stocks Now" App A+ (Individual Stocks) 7% Indexes Top 3 ETF's (Stockoodles free website) I have some Defensive pies: (12%) 4% Metals & Minerals ETF's (buy & hold with very frequent rebalancing) 4% International ETF's (buy & hold with very frequent rebalancing) 4% MicroCap ETF's (buy & hold with very frequent rebalancing) After 111 days of experimenting and changing things very often, sometimes daily: 20.13% APY 5.96% ROI S & P during the same period: 23.66% ROI Differential -17.70% It is very hard to lose money in this perpetual bull market but I will find a way He He. How are you folks going to deal with a change of direction after trading in one direction for so long of a time?
M1 does window trades so it is not really a trading broker. I have enrolled in their spend account which entitles me to two windows (Morning & Afternoon) and "if and when" I get 25k in my account I can trade in both of them on the same day...currently I will have to choose which window I want each day as I have under 10K. I usually prepare and enter my trades after work each evening for the next window (Morning) and update my spreadsheet. Using the free websites "Stockoodles" & "ETF Channel" may or may not be useful. Just experimenting. ES
I guess you would call me a fundamental investor as I do not use wiggly lines as a basis for my entries. I have a few thoughts though. The direction of an individual stock is predicated on the market direction....some say 70% of the direction. For me personally I like statistics very much. The stock traders almanac is interesting to me. Strategizing and pairing up combinations of pies in M1 seems to be idea-provoking to me. I am trying to learn how to trade in a bear market as I think many fundamental investors have had a cake-walk in this perpetual bull market. again..prices are driven by earnings and as long as we have Trump we will have positive earnings. ES
some changes.....I feel I am on the right track and I should start showing some improvement on tracking and exceeding the S & P 500. I have a mix of Stocks and added some ETF's to tame volatility. I do not dismiss the goal of this portfolio to beat the S & P 500, but this will take a while to catch up as I did not keep up in the first few months and lost some ground. I feel I am learning fast. I have a sophisticated approach to my bond holdings that I learned from the ishare website. I added MINT together with NEAR to my Medium-Term (6-18 mo's) pie which does not affect performance just splits it up. See the changes below... they are many! I park my cash inside my ROTH here: (36%) 9% Bonds <3 Months 9% Bonds 3-6 Months 9% Bonds 6-18 Months 9% Bonds >18 Months Market Indexes (16%)* 16% Indexes Top 3 Index ETF's (Stockoodles free website)* Speculative traded and evaluated once daily: (48%)* 8% ETF Channel Top 5 ETF's (ETF Channel free website) 8% "Best Stocks Now" App Entry on Stocks that reach a Rank of A+ and held until they drop to a sell signal rank (Stocks Ranking Subscription 10 Bucks/mo.)* 8% Seven Dividend Aristocrats (updated monthly) 8% Quantimize Commodities Model Portfolio (Quantimize free website) 8% Quantimize Stocks Model Portfolio's (Quantimize free website) 8% Quantimize Emerging Markets Portfolio's (Quantimize free website) After 116 days of managing this active portfolio: 18.20% APY 5.73% ROI S & P during the same period: 23.56% ROI I am underperforming the S & P 500 with -17.83% ElectricSavant * Speculation is for younger portfolio traders...This portion of the portfolio allows for longs on inverse directions because a 5 years time horizon does not allow for a "directionally long only" portfolio, because historical market cycles need a minimum of 10 years.
You know....the more I read about dividend paying stocks...the more I think that they do not appreciate as much as companies that pay no dividends. I am limiting the portfolio just now to the 7 dividend paying aristocrats. Es
You know I find this Journal that I am publishing in Stochoholics quite helpful to my trading. It makes me accountable. If only Stochohlics answered their emails and had any service at all to offer its members would improve this site a lot. No changes to the pies and the slices. There is the daily updating causing some movement inside the slices with their holdings but not much for the last four days. I am concentrating on trading less. I have 36% of the money in Bonds because of my age (60Y old). I can also use inverse funds in the portfolio if needed. Why am I doing this? Why not just buy the S & P 500 and sit on it? It is hard to keep up with the S & P 500. I am still losing ground. I see other talented investors beating the S & P 500 so I know it is possible. I will continue to use it as a benchmark/measurment to gauge how I am doing. My differential below in red improves when the market falls so I guess this is a defensive portfolio, by the way it acts. After 120 days of managing this active portfolio: 17.51% APY 5.76% ROI S & P during the same period: 24.51% ROI I am underperforming the S & P 500 with -18.75%
Commodities and emerging markets drag this portfolio. I do not like to free up too much bond money as I need to stay allocated because of my age. I do not have time to endure a bear market cycle. Maybe I can improve my underperformance when compared to the S & P 500 with these changes below: I park some cash inside my ROTH here to make a little better than a money market return. Cash should not sit idle: (32%) 8% Bonds <3 Months (SHV) 8% Bonds 3-6 Months (FLOT, ICSH) 8% Bonds 6-18 Months (MINT, NEAR) 8% Bonds >18 Months (IGSB, SHY) Market Indexes (20%)* 20% Indexes Top 3 Index ETF's (Stockoodles free website)* Speculative traded and evaluated once daily: (48%)* 10% ETF Channel Top 5 ETF's (ETF Channel free website) 10% "Best Stocks Now" App (Entry on Stocks that reach A+ and held until they drop to a hold signal rank (Stocks Ranking Subscription $10.00/mo.)* 10% Seven Dividend Aristocrats (updated monthly) 10% Quantimize Stocks Model Portfolio's (Quantimize free website) 4% Quantimize Commodities Model Portfolio (Quantimize free website) 4% Quantimize Emerging Markets Portfolio's (Quantimize free website) After 122 days of managing this active portfolio: 18.51% APY 6.19% ROI S & P during the same period: 25.04% ROI I am underperforming the S & P 500 with -18.85% ElectricSavant * Speculation is for younger portfolio traders...This portion of the portfolio allows for longs on inverse directions because a 5 years time horizon does not allow for a "directionally long only" portfolio, because historical market cycles need a minimum of 10 years.
I feel good about this last adjustment. I think the portfolio can now track the S & P 500. If I can get all the way back to PAR I will return the bonds back to a higher percentage. This could take a while. Meanwhile I am 68% invested in the stock market.
With M1 Finance I can rebalance with the click of a button. There is not any commission but when you hold 102 positions the SEC & FINRA fees can add up. It is better not to rebalance as often as I thought (daily). Weekly may even be too much. When I deposit money to my portfolio there is a dynamic rebalancing that takes place...so as I slowly add money to my portfolio M1 distributes it intelligently and brings my holdings closer to their percentage settings. If I do major adjustments to the portfolio I can manually hit the rebalance button, but again I am trying to refrain from that too often. I am getting the portfolio dialed-in so I do not anticipate these "Manual Adjustment" type of changes that often now. es
