Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of April 15th! This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: Major Indices End of Week: Major Futures Markets on Friday: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD: What to Watch in the Week Ahead: Monday Earnings: Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Charles Schwab, JB Hunt, Wintrust, Pinnacle, M&T 8:30 a.m. Empire State manufacturing 8:30 a.m. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans on CNBC 1:00 p.m. Chicago Fed’s Evans at Cornell Club 4:00 p.m. TIC data 8:00 p.m. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren Tuesday Earnings: IBM, Bank of America, Johnson and Johnson, BlackRock, Netflix,UnitedHealth, CSX, United Continental, Fulton Financial, First Horizon, Comerica, Prologis 8:30 a.m. Business leaders’ survey 9:15 a.m. Industrial production 10:00 a.m. NAHB survey 2:00 p.m. Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan Wednesday Earnings: PepsiCo, Abbott Labs, Morgan Stanley, Las Vegas Sands, ETrade, Bank of the Ozarks, Bank of NY Mellon, Kansas City Southern, Textron, Signature Bank, Adtran, Alcoa, BancorpSouth, Torchmark, Pentair, Texas Capital Bancshares 8:30 a.m. International trade 10:00 a.m. Wholesale trade 12:30 p.m. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker 12:30 p.m. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard 2:00 p.m. Fed’s Beige Book Thursday Earnings: American Express, Intuitive Surgical, Synchrony Financial, Union Pacific, Travelers, Blackstone, Citizens Financial, Check Point Software, ManpowerGroup, Rogers Communications, Snap-on, BB&T, Taiwan Semiconductor, KeyCorp, Genuine Parts, PPG, SunTrust 8:30 a.m. Retail sales 8:30 a.m. Jobless claims 8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey 10:00 a.m. Business inventory 12:10 p.m. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic Friday Financial markets closed for Good Friday
Disney, Dimon, & A China Debt Surge Lift Stocks As Economic Data Collapses Just keep repeating: "the market is not the economy"... Except that is the exact opposite of what former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan told the world this morning, explaining that much of the improvement has come from a rise in stock market prices: He sees a “stock market aura” in the economy. A rise of 10 percent in the S&P 500 corresponds to a 1 percent real GDP increase, he said. The S&P 500 has risen nearly 16 percent in 2019 and is on track for its best performance in history should current trends hold. Mixed picture in Europe this week with Italy and France outperforming and Spain the laggard... US futures show the moment that China credit and trade data hit, sending stocks soaring... On the week, Trannies were the big winners as Small Caps clung to gains and The Dow scrambled today to get back to breakeven on the week...(despite utter desperation in the algos, The Dow ended the week red) Notable decoupling between the market and "most shorted" stocks the last two days - do not see this very often at all... LYFT crashederer (blowing below $60!!)... DISney lifted The Dow dramatically and sent NFLX lower... Chevron tumbled as it bid for Anadarko... And then there was JPM - which surged on record results and Dimon's bullish remarks - compared to Wells which was ugly... Treasury yields were all notably higher on the week, led by the belly up 7-8bps... 10Y Yields rose back above 2.50%, back up to the March FOMC levels... The market has erased almost all of the extra dovishness priced in since the March FOMC meeting... The Dollar Index (DXY) ended the week lower, back below the Maginot Line of 97.00 For the seventh week in a row, China's Yuan was flat (thanks to a big jump overnight)... Bitcoin and Ethereum held on to gains for the week as Ripple and Litecoin tumbled... Despite the USD weakness, PMs were weaker (with silver slammed) as copper and crude gained... Gold is trading at its 'richest' to silver (86.1x) since 1993... Commodities and rates are aligned in their view of reflation (nothing much)... Because, remember, fun-durr-mentals don't matter!!! Only global money supply does... Never Forget... they're still out there...
Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2019- S&P sectors for the past week-
April’s Option Expiration Week Historically Bullish: DJIA Up 30 of Last 37 April option expiration is generally bullish across the board with solid gains on the last day of the week, the entire week and the week after. Since 1982, DJIA and S&P 500 have both advanced 23 times in 37 years on expiration day with an average gain right around 0.15%. Expiration day used to be stronger, but four or five straight years of declines has taken on a toll on the longer-term record. Nonetheless, expiration week has a bullish track record over the past 37 years even factoring in recent weakness on the last day. Average weekly gains are 1% or better for S&P 500, DJIA and NASDAQ. The bullish bias of April expiration also persists during the week after. DJIA has posted a full-week gain in 15 of the last 20 weeks following expiration. Typical April Trading: Mid-Month Surge Stronger Second Half Over the recent 21 years April is the top-ranked month for DJIA. April ranks #3 S&P 500, #5 for NASDAQ, #2 for Russell 1000 and #4 for Russell 2000. Average gains over the period range from a low of 1.19% by NASDAQ to a respectable 2.29% by DJIA. The first half of April used to outperform the second half, but since 1994 that has no longer been the case. In fact the second half of April is stronger over the recent 21-year period. Early April trading is usually positive for the first 4 days then flattens off until mid-month. Then the market tends to surge from the tenth to the fifteenth trading days. DJIA tends to close out the month strongest with NASDAQ closing weakest. Except for DJIA weighed down by Boeing (BA), stocks are having an above average month so far, which is quite typical in Pre-Election years where April has tended to be even stronger. Claims Bode Well For Equities Earlier today on our Twitter account, we retweeted a chart from Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal of inverted Jobless Claims versus the S&P 500. We have used this chart as an argument for the bullish case for the past several years. As we mentioned in a blog post this morning, Initial Jobless Claims came in earlier this week with a sizable drop off, down to 196K versus last week's revised 204K and expectations of 210K. This week's print was not only a new low for the current cycle, it is also the lowest reading since 1969. That sort of new low could be a good sign for equities. As shown in the chart below, claims and the S&P have mirrored each other since bottoming following the financial crisis. (In the chart, we have inverted claims on the right axis.) As the S&P 500 inches its way back towards all time highs, so has claims towards new lows. Additionally, with recent low prints for claims bucking what had previously appeared to be an upside trend reversal, the bullish case for the S&P 500 is growing. Optimism Growing Again The American Association of Individual Investors updated their weekly investor sentiment survey this morning and the results are very similar to the final days of February with bullish sentiment around 40%, bearish down near 20%, and neutral once again in the upper 30's. Up from 35.02% last week, bullish sentiment has crossed back over the 40% threshold; the first time it has done so since the previously mentioned week in February. While bullish sentiment is sitting a couple of points above the historical average, this is still several percentage points from reaching any sort of extreme level (more than one standard deviation above the aforementioned average). For that to happen, bullish sentiment would have to come in above 48.36%. If that occurs, then it could be a sign that investors are getting a little too optimistic. Bearish sentiment, on the other hand, fell all the way back down to 20.38% this week, the lowest since its 20% reading on February 28th. That is around 10% less than the historical average for bearish sentiment. That is also at the lower end of the range bearish sentiment has stayed within in the past decade. Neutral sentiment has still yet to have moved above or below the upper 30's coming in at 39.33% this week after falling from similar levels down to 36.71% last week. That is the third time in the past month that neutral sentiment has come in between 39% and 40%. The December Low Indicator Has Bulls Smiling After the best first quarter for the S&P 500 Index since 1998, the big question is: What happens next? We’ve already discussed why a good start to a year could lead to more gains (here and here), but today we will take a look at another potentially positive signal. The December Low Indicator was created in the 1970s by Lucien Hooper, a former Forbes columnist and Wall Street analyst. Simply put, the indicator says that if the S&P 500 closes beneath the December low during the first quarter, it’s a warning sign for potential weakness over the balance of the year. The flipside is if it doesn’t, good times could be coming. Given the S&P 500 just went all of the first quarter without closing beneath the December 24 low, it’s worth taking a deeper dive. Sure enough, there appears to be some truth to this concept. “The December low indicator seems quite simple, but it has a tremendous track record,” explained LPL Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “When the S&P 500 stays above the December lows throughout the first quarter, the full year has been higher an incredible 34 out of the last 34 times, which bodes well for 2019.” In fact, this warning even worked last year, as it triggered in the first quarter of 2018 and eventually played out during the big fourth quarter sell-off. As our LPL Chart of the Day shows, when the S&P 500 stays above the December lows in the first quarter, the full year does quite well. The Yield Curve’s “False Positive” Posted by lplresearch March’s yield curve commotion now looks like the first “false positive” of this expansion. While a prolonged yield curve inversion, or long-term rates falling below short-term rates, has preceded economic recessions historically, quick and shallow inversions are common later in economic cycles. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the yield curve typically flickers between positive and negative several times before the U.S. economy peaks, which has happened an average of 21 months after the first inversion. The 10-year Treasury yield fell below the 3-month Treasury yield on March 22 for the first time since August 2007, fueling recession calls as investors scrambled for answers on the bond market’s cautious signaling. The spread between the two yields fell as low as -7 basis points (-0.07%) on March 27. Since then, the 10-year yield has rebounded about 15 basis points (0.15%) amid progress in trade negotiations and improving data from China, calming investors’ nerves as the yield curve climbed back into positive territory after five days of inversion. The yield curve is still historically flat, but its recovery shows that the inversion was driven more by buying pressure in long-term yields than an economic panic. There are also no significant signs of stress in other credit markets, leading us to think recent inversion was more a result of short-term technical factors. “We’ve been encouraged by the recent recovery in long-term yields as global data have improved,” said LPL Research Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch. “Stabilizing growth and healthy domestic inflation could support long-term rates going forward.” While yield curve inversion is worth monitoring, we would become more concerned if the negative spread were to widen significantly. Historically, the spread between the 3-month and 10-year yields has become much more predictive of a recession at -50 basis points (-0.50%). The U.S. economy has averaged about 13 months to an economic peak when the spread falls that low, and other parts of the curve have inverted at that point.
Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 4.12.19- Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices- ...and here are the rally levels from current prices-
Stockaholics come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!- ======================================================================================================== Stockaholics Daily Stock Pick Challenge & SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (4/15) <-- click there to cast your daily market vote and stock pick! Stockaholics Weekly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll (4/15-4/19) <-- click there to cast your weekly market vote and stock picks! Stockaholics Weekly T/A Charting Challenge (4/15-4/19) <-- click there to participate! ======================================================================================================== It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these! I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!
Stock Market Analysis Video for April 12th, 2019 Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon ShadowTrader Video Weekly 4.14.19 | Are Stocks Going UP Next Week? | Earnings Season Kick-Off! Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead. ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time*** Monday 4.15.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Monday 4.15.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 4.16.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 4.16.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 4.17.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 4.17.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 4.18.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! N/A. Thursday 4.18.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! N/A. Friday 4.19.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE. (U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF GOOD FRIDAY). Friday 4.19.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE. (U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF GOOD FRIDAY).
And as promised here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead- ($NFLX $BAC $C $GS $UNH $JNJ $APHA $PIXY $SCHW $MTB $PGR $IBM $ABT $MS $PEP $BLK $CMA $TEAM $CSX $KMI $AA $URI $ERIC$WIT $KSU $UAL $PLD $ASML $USB $BK $TXT $FHN $JBHT $ISRG $PNFP $PIR $LVS $MLNX $MBWM $CCI $SKX $BMI) If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here- Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning April 15th, 2019 <-- click there to view!
POT stocks getting hit today after the earnings from APHA Cannabis stocks slammed as Aphria’s quarterly loss weighs on sector https://www.marketwatch.com/story/c...rly-loss-overshadows-revenue-surge-2019-04-15
Will the market close on Good Friday? I forgot whether Good Friday is the holiday for the stock market
Actually by looking at the earnings calendar that Cy posted above, pretty sure Friday will be a holiday for the stock market
thanks for picking up my slack @rStock! man, i'm usually on top of these things and have them posted in my started posts...guess i forgot this time.
