Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of April 22nd! This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: Major Indices End of Week: Major Futures Markets on Friday: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD: What to Watch in the Week Ahead: Monday Earnings: Halliburton, Kimberly-Clark, Whirlpool, Celanese, Allison Transmission, Range Resources, WW Grainger, Zions Bancorp, Cadence Designs 10:00 a.m. Existing home sales Tuesday Earnings: Coca-Cola, Lockheed Martin, Procter and Gamble, Verizon, Twitter, NextEra Energy, Northern Trust, Teradyne, Carlisle Cos, United Technologies, Fifth Third, JetBlue, Harley Davidson, PulteGroup, State Street, eBay, Six Flags, Stryker, Snap, Texas Instruments, Canadian Pacific Railway, Kaiser aluminum 9:00 a.m. FHFA home prices 9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI 9:45 a.m. Services PMI 10:00 a.m. New home sales Wednesday Earnings: AT&T, Caterpillar, Boeing, Facebook, Microsoft, Visa, Tesla, PayPal, General Dynamics, Northrop Grumman, Chipotle Mexican Grill, F5 Networks, Boston Beer, Churchill Downs, Netgear, Sirius XM, Moody’s, T.Rowe Price, Spirit Airlines, Graco, Biogen, Domino’s Pizza, Nasdaq OMX, Anthem, Boston Scientific Thursday Earnings: Amazon, 3M, Comcast, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Freeport-McMoRan, Hershey, Alexion Pharma, Altria, Barclays, UBS, Starbucks, Intel, Ford, Discover Financial, Eastman Chemical, Alaska Air, American Electric, Illinois Tool Works, Nintendo, UPS, DR Horton, Capitol One, Valero Energy, Southwest Air, Nokia, Tractor Supply, Brunswick 8:30 a.m. Initial claims 8:30 a.m. Durable goods 10:00 a.m. Housing vacancies Friday Earnings: Exxon Mobil, Chevron; Archer Daniels Midland, AstraZeneca, Colgate-Palmolive, Daimler, Cabot Oil and Gas, AutoNation, Autoliv, Bloomin’ Brands, Deutsche Bank, Sanofi, Sony, 8:30 a .m. Real GDP (Q1 advance) 8:30 a.m. Advance economic indicators 10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment
Trump Pumps, Dow Jumps, Small Caps Slump, Healthcare Dumps Fun-durr-mentals... Just seemed timely... Small Caps suffered on the week as Trannies and The Dow managed gains ahead of the long weekend... This was the 2nd worst week for Small Caps relative to Mega Caps in 5 months... Technology's role as the best-performing equity sector during this year's ferocious rally has it trading at more than 19.2 times forward 12-month earnings, a level it hasn't reached since 2007. As Bloomberg notes, valuations are a notoriously poor tool for market timing, and forward earnings estimates could prove to be too low, so this alone shouldn't necessarily serve as a sell signal. However, notice the divergence in fortunes between tech and health care that's left the former trading at almost 1.4 times the forward valuation of the latter. That's a rather extreme divergence that seems like a good candidate for mean reversion. The Healthcare sector continued to puke today, making it the worst week since 2018, but we note that it found support at the 100DMA... Breadth is starting to fade and yesterday was an outside day closing lower... Treasuries round-tripped early week losses with yields tumbling the last 24 hours back to unchanged on the week... The Dollar Index (DXY) surged today (by the most in a month) bouncing off the 97.00 level once again as German Manufacturing disappointed sending the EUR tumbling... Crytpos continue to have a good week with Ethereum and Litecoin best today... Gold had an ugly week as silver broke-even, copper tumbled today... Gold's 3rd worst week in 5 months (Silver best week relative to gold since the start of the year), back in the red for 2019... WTI has traded sideways for almost two weeks - unable to break the Fib61.8% retracement... Gas prices are up a record 65 days in a row... Finally, US economic is the worst in the world as China's soars... Probably nothing!!
Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2019- S&P sectors for the past week-
Pre-election year Mays: Just 10th overall DJIA and S&P 500 May officially marks the beginning of the “Worst Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P. To wit: “Sell in May and go away.” Our “Best Six Months Switching Strategy,” created in 1986, proves that there is merit to this old trader’s tale. A hypothetical $10,000 investment in the DJIA compounded to a gain of $1,008,721 for November-April in 68 years compared to just $1,031 for May-October. The same hypothetical $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 compounded to $757,335 for November-April in 68 years compared to a gain of just $9,079 for May-October. May has been a tricky month over the years, a well-deserved reputation following the May 6, 2010 “flash crash”. It used to be part of what we called the “May/June disaster area.” From 1965 to 1984 the S&P 500 was down during May fifteen out of twenty times. Then from 1985 through 1997 May was the best month, gaining ground every single year (13 straight gains) on the S&P, up 3.3% on average with the DJIA falling once and two NASDAQ losses. In the years since 1997, May’s performance has been erratic; DJIA up ten times in the past twenty years (three of the years had gains in excess of 4%). NASDAQ suffered five May losses in a row from 1998-2001, down – 11.9% in 2000, followed by eleven sizable gains in excess of 2.5% and four losses, the worst of which was 8.3% in 2010. Since 1950, pre-election-year Mays rank poorly, #10 DJIA and S&P 500, #7 NASDAQ, #6 Russell 1000 and #5 Russell 2000. Liberate Your Portfolio Sell Passover Much like the ancient Hebrews’ exodus out of Egypt, springtime and the Passover holiday are often an excellent time of year to consider major portfolio moves. Some may remember the old saying on the Street, “Buy Rosh Hashanah, Sell Yom Kippur.” Though it had a good record at one time, it stopped working in the middle of the last century. It still gets tossed around every autumn when the “high holidays” are on the minds of traders as many take off to observe the Jewish New Year and Day of Atonement. The basis for the new pattern, “Sell Rosh Hashanah-Buy Yom Kippur-Sell Passover,” is that with many traders and investors busy with religious observance and family, positions are closed out and volume fades creating a buying vacuum. Actual stats on the most observed Hebrew holidays have been compiled in the table here. We present the data back to 1971 and when the holiday falls on a weekend the prior market close is used. It’s no coincidence that Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur fall in September and/or October, two dangerous and opportune months. We then took it a step further and calculated the return from Yom Kippur to Passover, which conveniently occurs in March or April, right near the end of our “Best Six Months” strategy. Perhaps it’s Talmudic wisdom but, selling stocks before the eight-day span of the high holidays has avoided many declines, especially during uncertain times. While being long Yom Kippur to Passover has produced 55% more advances, half as many losses and average gains of 7.2%. It often pays to be a contrarian when old bromides are tossed around, buying instead of selling Yom Kippur – and selling Passover. From Passover to Yom Kippur DJIA averages just 1.6% and is littered with nasty declines. Good Friday Trading: Strength Before Weakness After Good Friday is the one NYSE holiday with a clear positive bias before and negativity the day after. DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 all have solid average gains on the day before but are all net losers on the day after Easter since 1980. NASDAQ has been notably strong, up 17 of the last 18 days before Good Friday with the one loss occurring in 2017. The day after Easter has the worst post-holiday record though average losses are steeper after Presidents’ Day. The S&P 500 was down 16 of 20 years from 1984-2003 on the day after Easter but is has been up ten of the last fifteen years. Individual Investors Remaining Neutral Thu, Apr 18, 2019 Last week, bullish sentiment as indicated by the AAII's weekly survey of individual investors came in at the second highest level of the year at 40.29%. Declines this week seemed to have weighed on bulls as the percentage of investors reporting as bullish fell to 37.56%. That is back below the historical average of 38.2%, though, it is also not far away from where bullish sentiment has stayed for much of the year. This week's level deviates slightly from the Investors Intelligence survey which saw bearish sentiment unchanged while optimism rose to the highest levels since October. The bearish camp seems to have borrowed from the bulls as 21.83% of investors reported bearish sentiment versus 20.38% last week. This is a fairly small movement relative to what could be observed in the past couple of months. For example, last week and in the final week of March, bearish sentiment fell by over 7%. In other words, bearish sentiment seems stable around the lower end of the range from the past few years, now several percentage points below the historical average of 30.31%. While bullish and bearish sentiment remains high and low, respectively, neutral sentiment is also very elevated. At 40.61%, the percentage of investors reporting neutral sentiment is now slightly over one standard deviation above the historical average. The last time this happened was in late July of last year. Mortgage Applications Hit Nine-Year High Wed, Apr 17, 2019 This morning the Mortgage Bankers' Association (MBA) reported mortgage application volumes for the week ending April 12th this morning. Refinancing volumes dropped over 8% after an 11.4% WoW drop last week. Refinancing is still running at a strong pace (roughly twice the pace where they finished last year), but the more economically relevant result was the strong purchase application data. Applications for purchase are a leading indicator of home sales, so the new cycle high in purchase application volumes posted this week is a good sign that the housing market remains in a much better position than where it stood last year. Weekly data can be tricky to seasonally adjust, so it's also worth taking a peek at weekly data without seasonal adjustments. As shown, we're right near the typical seasonal peak for application volumes, and as-of this week, only two weeks since 2009 have recorded stronger purchase application volumes. That confirms the basic message of the seasonally adjusted index, which is that mortgage applications are running at a very strong pace. On a YoY basis, purchase application volumes are not extremely strong, but it's pretty clear there's a healthier trend than the period in the second half of last year. Since week-to-week applications can be pretty volatile, it helps to smooth things out with a rolling 4-week average. Using this approach, the 4-week average of purchase applications is up 8.2% YoY, the best pace since the week ended February 9th of last year. Chart of the Day: Fourth Best Start on Record in Junk Bond Market Wed, Apr 17, 2019 After a rough Q4 for the junk bond market, 2019 has turned into a banner year for the sector. As measured by the Merrill Lynch High Yield Master Index, the total return for the high yield market through Tuesday's close has been a gain of 8.67%, making it the fourth-best start to a year for the sector on record and the best start since 2009. This year's gain also marks the eighth time since 1987 that the high yield market had gained more than 6% through 4/16. So how does the junk market perform for the remainder of the year after such strong starts like 2019? And how about the equity market as well? Below is a chart showing rest-of-year returns for junk bonds and the S&P 500 in all years since 1987. Years where junk bonds rallied 6%+ through 4/16 are shaded in grey.
Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 4.18.19- Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices- ...and here are the rally levels from current prices-
Stockaholics come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!- ======================================================================================================== Stockaholics Daily Stock Pick Challenge & SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (4/22) <-- click there to cast your daily market vote and stock pick! Stockaholics Weekly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll (4/22-4/26) <-- click there to cast your weekly market vote and stock picks! Stockaholics Weekly T/A Charting Challenge (4/22-4/26) <-- click there to participate! ======================================================================================================== It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these! I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!
Stock Market Analysis Video for April 18th, 2019 Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon ShadowTrader Video Weekly 4.21.19 Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek (VIDEO NOT YET UP!)
Here is a look at this upcoming week's Global Economic & Policy Calendar- (GLOBAL ECONOMIC CALENDAR NOT YET UP!)
Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead. ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time*** Monday 4.22.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Monday 4.22.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 4.23.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 4.23.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 4.24.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 4.24.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 4.25.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 4.25.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 4.26.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 4.26.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE.
And as promised here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead- ($AMZN $FB $BA $TWTR $MSFT $TSLA $T $SNAP $CAT $VZ $HAL $KO $PG $INTC $LMT $F $CLF $V $XLNX $CNC $PYPL $GWW $BIIB $STLD $UTX $CMG $UPS $ABBV $NOK $KMB $DPZ $MO $AAL $XOM $JBLU $SBUX $BMY $ANTM $LRCX $HOG $BOH $LUV $IRBT $NUE $FCX) If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here- Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning April 22nd, 2019 <-- click there to view!
Good Monday morning to all. Here is this morning's pre-market news thread for those of you wanting to get a quick read before today's open- <-- click there to read! Hope everyone has a great trading day and week ahead.
Morning Lineup - Slow Start to a Busy Week Mon, Apr 22, 2019 Markets are easing investors back into the mix after the three-day weekend as European markets remain closed. US futures are trading lower this morning, while crude oil is ripping after the US will reportedly not extend Iranian oil waivers when they expire on 5/2. The economic calendar is relatively quiet today with the Chicago Fed NAI at 8:30 and Existing Home Sales at 10:00 Eastern. You wouldn't know it by the pace of reports today but this week and next are the two busiest of the Q1 earnings season as more than 300 companies in the S&P 500 are scheduled to report. The peak day for earnings of S&P 500 companies comes on Thursday (4/25) when 64 companies will report. Today, though, only seven companies are on the calendar. The next time there will be a day with fewer reports isn't until May 10th!
yikes, i guess i can really forget about that road trip w/ the hummer this summer what's got oil/energy rippin' today? admittedly i have been out of sync with the news of late. think i briefly skimmed through something about iran while i was compiling this morning's pre-market thread but did not read in detail, not sure if that was it though.
Yes looks like the move is because of Iran Oil prices jump over 2% as U.S. says waivers on Iran oil imports ending https://www.marketwatch.com/story/o...l-halt-waivers-on-iran-oil-imports-2019-04-22
