Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of April 20th! This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: Major Indices End of Week: Major Futures Markets on Friday: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD: What to Watch in the Week Ahead: Monday Earnings: IBM, Steel Dynanics, Equifax, Zions Bancorp, Ally Financial, Halliburton, Infosys, Royal Phillips, Truist Financial Tuesday Earnings: Coca-Cola, Netflix, Travelers, Texas Instruments, Chubb, Lockheed Martin, CIT Group, SAP, HCA Healthcare, Manpower, Prologis, Comerica, Emerson Electric, Synchrony Financial, Snap, Canadian Pacific Railways, Interactive Brokers, Teradyne 8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed nonmanufacturing 10:00 a.m. Existing home sales Wednesday Earnings: AT&T, Las Vegas Sands, Alcoa, Boston Beer, Kinder Morgan, Delta Air Lines, Baker Hughes, Quest Diagnostics, Kimberly-Clark, Nasdaq, Discover Financial, Netgear, Seagate Technology, SLM, TD Ameritrade, CSX, Biogen, Thermo Fisher, LM Ericsson 9:00 a.m. FHFA home prices Thursday Earnings: Intel, Blackstone Group, Eli Lily, Credit Suisse, Invesco, Huntington Bancshares, Tractor Supply, Capital One, FirstEnergy, Hershey, Southwest Air, Union Pacific, Citrix, Domino’s Pizza, PulteGroup 8:30 a.m. Weekly claims 9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI 9:45 a.m. Services PMI 10:00 a.m. New home sales Friday Earnings: American Express, Verizon, Sanofi, Eni 8:30 a.m. Durable goods 10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment
Crude Crashes As Mega-Techs Soar Amid Record Surge In Deaths, Unemployment Nasdaq stocks soared on the week (second week in a row) as Small Caps and Trannies disappointed... Sending tech stocks back to dotcom levels of exuberance relative to domestically-focused smaller cap stocks... Source: Bloomberg Black gold was not buying it... Source: Bloomberg And The Fed has managed to hide the reality of soaring US virus deaths from American markets... Source: Bloomberg And the blindfold is global as economic data disappoints and plunges at a record pace while stocks surge higher... Source: Bloomberg And as global earnings expectations collapse, stocks are rising too... Source: Bloomberg Here's why this is happening... Source: Bloomberg Our put another way... Europe was mixed with only DAX managing gains during the holiday-shortened week... Source: Bloomberg But all eyes were on the Italian sovereign spread as it blew out... Source: Bloomberg Chinese stocks all ended the week higher led by the small-cap, tech-dominated ChiNext index... Source: Bloomberg In the US, the big banks were battered (despite gains on Friday)... Source: Bloomberg Nasdaq futures plunged back into the red from strong gains overnight... and the last hour saw more complete panic-buying as Small Caps surged back towards their limit-up overnight highs... Dow futures fought with the 50% retracement line all day... Sectors affected directly by the virus or lockdowns largely trod water this week... Source: Bloomberg Of course the big story that purportedly sparked the buying panic today was anecdotal news of a small Remdesivir trial's positive results... Source: Bloomberg Treasury yields were all lower on the week with the long-end outperforming... Source: Bloomberg 10Y Yields spiked late on Friday as The Fed tapered its QE program again... Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg The Dollar gained on the week, but mainly thanks to the surge on Wednesday... Source: Bloomberg Cryptos trod water today to end the week mixed with most altcoins flat, Ethereum best and Bitcoin up just 2%... Source: Bloomberg Copper gained as PMs limped lower... Source: Bloomberg Gold spot and futures prices were marginally lower on the week as the premium compressed notably... Source: Bloomberg Finally, instead of charts, we offer views from two heavyweights: DoubleLine's Jeff Gundlach... What people in financial media don’t seem to understand is that we are never going back to the January 2020 “You blow dry my hair and I’ll blow dry your hair” economy. Saving money and having a net economically productive skill will be the new cool. And Guggenheim's Scott Minerd: “Investors who are sitting out there right now who rebalanced a few weeks ago and moved from fixed income to equities should probably think about rebalancing again,” he said Friday on a panel. “The market at this level based upon where earnings are doesn’t represent any kind of intrinsic value,” Minerd said. “It is being entirely propped up by liquidity.” “S&P could be 1,500, 1,600, 1,200.” Ok, ok... one chart... the S&P 500 Fwd P/E is now at 19.47x... its highest since Feb 2002 and well above the peak in Feb 2020... Source: Bloomberg
Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2020- S&P sectors for the past week-
How Markets Performed During the Spanish Flu Fri, Apr 17, 2020 With equities surging into the close ahead of the weekend, traders are shrugging their shoulders wondering how the hell the market is rallying given the economic damage inflicted by the COVID-19 outbreak, which has been cited as the worst pandemic to hit the United States since the 1918 Spanish flu. This leads to the question, how did the stock market perform during the Spanish flu outbreak? The chart below compares the performance of the DJIA to the weekly mortality rate of the Spanish flu during each of the waves of that pandemic from mid-1918 through early 1919 (as cited in a WSJ article earlier today). Looking at how the outbreak of the Spanish flu played out, there were basically three different waves of the virus (red line). The first wave in the summer of 1918 was a relatively mild one compared to the other two, and the DJIA's performance during that wave was essentially flat as it never declined more than 3%. The real damage from the Spanish flu was in the fall of 1918 when the mortality rate spiked up as high as 24 per 1,000 people per week. During that wave of the pandemic, which also came in the thick of a post-WWI recession, the DJIA peaked just as the wave was getting underway and fell for the next three months. Even with the severity of the outbreak during that wave, though, the DJIA never fell more than 11% from peak to trough. On a comparative basis, even after the 28% rally over the last four weeks, the S&P 500 is still down 15% from its high. Obviously, comparing two periods more than 100 years apart is hardly an apples to apples comparison, but it's still interesting that during what was an even deadlier pandemic in 1918, the DJIA never even approached anything close to a bear market. Looking at the chart, the DJIA's low of the decline coincided with the second wave of the outbreak just as the third (more mild) wave of the pandemic was getting underway. Furthermore, during that third wave, the DJIA kicked off what was a strong rally of more than 25% in less than three months on optimism over an end to the outbreak. So, once the mortality rate of the Spanish flu dropped down to zero, it must have been nothing but clear skies ahead for the Dow, right? Well, not necessarily. When it comes to the stock market, there's always something. Less than a year after the mortality rate from the Spanish flu dropped down to zero, the US economy actually went into a year and a half long recession. That contraction was so severe that it has been dubbed the Depression of 1920/21, one where unemployment topped 10% and deflation was as high as 18%! The bear market that accompanied that recession was also severe as the DJIA declined 46%. Imagine coming out of a pandemic with nothing more than an 11% correction and then getting socked with that! Silver Shining in the Near Term, Gold Shining Over the Long Term Thu, Apr 16, 2020 Gold (GLD) has had an interesting run over the past year. Last spring, the ETF for the yellow metal finally pressed above multiyear resistance roughly around $130. After surging through late summer, GLD continued its rally at the end of 2019 and early 2020 before turning sharply lower alongside stocks in March. But since its March 19th low it has gone on to rally over 17% as of today and is now at its highest levels since early 2013. Another precious metal, Silver (SLV), has not been as fortunate. Although it shared in the rally last spring and summer, SLV has yet to eclipse its early September highs. While gold had broken out again in February and March, silver put in a lower high before plummeting to its lost level since 2009 in mid-March. But since that low on March 18th, SLV has actually outperformed rising 27.83%. Gold is up only up 15.14% since that same day and 17% since its respective low one day later on March 19th. While the S&P 500's (SPY) low was not put in place until a few days after gold and silver on March 23rd, since March 18th, SLV is also outperforming SPY's 15.97% gain. Over the long term, though SLV is still the worst performer of the group. As shown in the chart below, SLV is down 8.84% over the past two years while the S&P 500's gains have also been somewhat lackluster thanks to the most recent sell-off with only a 4.11% gain. Gold, on the other hand, has outshined the other two having surged 26.93%. It’s Earnings Season (Or Whatever it is Companies Plan to Report) Thu, Apr 16, 2020 It’s that time of year again. The time when corporate America reports financial results for the prior three months. Normally, we call it earnings season, but given the fact that most of the US economy has been shut down and no timetable is set for when it re-opens, for a lot of companies out there, there really isn’t much in the way of earnings, revenues, or guidance to speak of. Instead, this reporting period will likely be a lot of companies trying to put the best spin on how much (or little) cash they have on hand to withstand the shutdown. Besides the major banks and financials, there hasn’t been a whole lot in the way of reports to speak of, but of the results we have seen, the stock market reaction hasn’t been great as companies like Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), JP Morgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Bank of America (BAC), and Goldman Sachs (GS) have all seen negative reactions to their reports. The only large-cap that has really reacted positively to earnings so far is UnitedHealth (UNH) which gained more than 4%. Next week, the pace of reports will pick up, but the peak period for reports won’t be for another two weeks when more than 300 companies will report in a single day. Typical April Trading: Strength from Start to Finish April, the last month of DJIA & S&P 500 “Best Six Months,” has a strong historical track record. April 1999 was the first month DJIA gained over 1000 points (10.25%). April is also DJIA’s best month since 1950 with an average 1.9% gain. After a disastrous March, the rally than began in late March has extended in April. As of yesterday’s close, DJIA is up 7.39% so far this April. S&P 500 is up 8.32%, NASDAQ has risen 10.81%. Small caps, measured by the Russell 2000 have not fared as well, up just 2.17%. April’s historical performance over the recent 21-year period is plotted in the chart above (21-year average is on the left vertical scale) compared to April 2020 (right vertical scale). Magnitude of gains this year is substantial however, the trend this year has been similar to past years. Should the current trend remain intact, further gains this month are possible. Coronavirus uncertainty remains extremely elevated, but there does to be some light flickering at the end of tunnel.
Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 4.17.20- Here are the current major indices rally levels from correction low as of week ending 4.17.20- Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-
Stock Market Analysis Video for April 17th, 2020 Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon ShadowTrader Video Weekly 4.19.20 Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek (VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!)
Stockaholics come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!- ======================================================================================================== Stockaholics Daily Stock Pick Challenge & SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (4/20) <-- click there to cast your daily market vote and stock pick! Stockaholics Weekly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll (4/20-4/24) <-- click there to cast your weekly market vote and stock picks! ======================================================================================================== It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these! I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!
Here is a look at this upcoming week's Global Economic & Policy Calendar- (GLOBAL ECONOMIC AND POLICY CALENDAR NOT YET POSTED!)
Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead. ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time*** Monday 4.20.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Monday 4.20.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 4.21.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 4.21.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 4.22.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 4.22.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 4.23.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 4.23.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 4.24.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 4.24.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE.
And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead- ($NFLX $DAL $KO $INFY $HAL $LMT $ALLY $SNAP $T $DPZ $IBM $PM $INTC $LUV $CMG $BIIB $HCA $VZ $BOH $MTB $ONB $SAP $BMRC $CMA $PHG $AXP $ERIC $CBU $KMB $TFC $PLD $SYF $NEE $LII $NDAQ $LLY $SNA $LVS $TRV $LRCX $KALU $EMR $CIT $FITB) If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here- Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning April 20th, 2020 <-- click there to view!
i wouldn't make too much of the crude dip into the $10-handle today. i wrote up a mini explanation of it here. although it's still very jarring seeing a $10 print, it's not actually as significant as it may appear. things can sometimes get a little squirrely when crude contracts roll over to the new month. i suppose it's much more magnified now because we haven't seen prints this low in crude going back to 1998, and also the size of the day's decline as well. and well, because technically it is still the front month contract. the june contract (/clm20) is the most active contract now, and it's also the continuous contract (/cl). and that never dipped sub-$19. anyway, the may contract (/clk20) expires tomorrow. so we'll be on june (/clm20) for the front month. nothing to see here really, but i guess the talking heads are having quite the field day talking about this today lol.
OMGGGG oil for May is 0.01!!! Down 99.9% in a single session. Oh gosh how can I buy a physical barrel of oil rn for this price? I'll take 1,000. My parents have 3 acres lmao
