The Long Term Investor

Zukodany

I BELIEVE that Biden will be sworn in on time and that once the courts refuse the lawsuits Trump will see the inevitable. As to FRAUD......yes I believe that our system has FRAUD....in every election, and RAMPANT FRAUD this year. Will it be uncovered? NO.....because there is no way built into the system to go back and look at ballots once they are all mixed together which most of them now are. In addition I believe that there will be NO real look for fraud at this point in the states and cities where it is most prevalent.

If it is even looked at and uncovered....it will be in the distant future by researchers and others. Way too late to do anything now. In addition I have ZERO confidence in the MEDIA and political system to deal with or accurately put out information on this sort of issue.......or for that matter ANY issue that is not bipartisan.

BUT.....as investors we have to deal with REALITY......and....that is what I am doing. I did get my order in for the additional funds to invest that went into my personal account today. Those funds will be invested in the SP500 Index Fund at the close today.

Looks like one of the "HATED" vaccines.....that are not going to happen for many months to years......is now happening.......exactly on schedule under the "warp speed" program to get one done. The first of at least 2-4 effective vaccines that will break the back of the Covid situation over the next 2-4 months. THIS will OBVIOUSLY be the big story and BIG market driver today.

The above is referencing a post that I made on the prior page....last night which I will repeat here for context:

POSTED LAST NIGHT

"It is my.....OPINION.....that there is a "probability" that the markets will be UP by 10-12% over the next three months......mid November to mid January. In other words.....an election relief rally.......a Santa Clause rally.....and a January rally. As I said above......I believe that the outlook for stocks is strongly positive in spite of the fact that I believe the outlook for the economy......once the current government change occurs........is negative.

Now that my annuities have kicked in and I am budgeting based on those funds along with the HUGE tax savings I will see annually going forward.....I am projecting that I will have about $20,000 annually to add to my primary investment account from non-investment income. I was going to make that addition to my account in January each year. However.....based on my opinion above.....this year......I will add those funds tomorrow instead of in January. After I make this post I will go into my account and transfer those funds into my primary stock account and they will be invested at the close tomorrow in the SP500 Index fund in my account.

I see little to no reason to wait till January based on the particular.......and very specific......market situation that we have in place right now.

Of course no guarantee that this will happen......but since these are VERY long term funds......I will invest ALL IN now instead of January when I planned."

 

"Pfizer says an early peek at its vaccine data suggests the shots may be 90% effective at preventing COVID-19, indicating the company is on track later this month to file an emergency use application with U.S. regulators."

Above is from a typical article today......source irrelevant. A 90% effective rate is HUGE when talking about vaccines.......and......in line with what was being predicted for the past month or more for the vaccine candidates that are in testing.

 

BIGMAIX

Hope you are doing well and ALL is good. You know......I have ZERO knowledge of the solar industry. The reason I have zero knowledge is because I do not believe the technology that we have now and into the near future is remotely capable doing what we need. My personal BIAS is that the ONLY power sources that are capable and reliable and reasonable are nuclear power and fossil fuels in particular natural gas. My belief is based on discussions that I had with a number of advanced degree electrical engineers that work in the power industry a few years back.

Of course, with the GREEN emphasis of the new administration there will be a lot of government money thrown at the solar industry. So from a short term of perhaps even medium term perspective there might be some money to be made. SORRY.....I just dont have anything that is helpful in this investing area

MY "TRADING KNOWLEDGE"? That statement makes me laugh......I am definately NOT a trader......and I do NOT claim to have any particular trading knowledge in the least. In fact.......it is PISSING me off (LOL) that the vaccine announcement happened today.....BEFORE.......my NEW funds are invested in the SP500 Index at the close today. BUT......even with the BIG jump in the markets today....I will of course....invest those funds at the close and hopefully take advantage of a BIG jump UP this week and what I EXPECT will be a 10-12% jump in the markets by mid January.

OK guys.....I am NOW going to REVEAL my big super-secret system for ALL the market and individual stock calls I have made in this thread. I call it the WAG indicator. Of course......WAG is short for WILD ASS GUESS.

 

By the way......the DOW and ALL the indexes are going to EASILY hit RECORD ALL TIME HIGHS before year end and perhaps before the end of November. The DOW......even though a pretty worthless indicator.....is now on track to FINALLY hit 30,000.....where it was headed before the virus happened.

AND......the forgotten and widely ignored story....EARNINGS are kicking ass with over 80% EXCEEDING ALL expectations. Yet another DOOM&GLOOM and FEAR MONGERING claim that has been rampant in the MEDIA going down in flames.

 

HOW DARE YOU.....I challenge you to a duel....SLAP.

 

AND.....for the FEAR MONGERS and DOOM&GLOOM purveyors.......here is a quote from an article.....source is irrelevant:

"The Pfizer announcement on Monday disclosed that “no serious safety concerns have been observed.”

 

AND....we will SOON see all those that have been waiting for some BIG market DROP flooding back into the markets......AFTER.....having missed the ROCKET RALLY of the past 6-7 months. After all the MEDIA told us there could NEVER be a "V" shaped recovery. ACTUALLY they were right....this has NOT been a "V" shaped recovery it has been a MASSIVELY straight up recovery.

This is TYPICAL investor behavior and is the reason that the average investor gains about 2-3% annually when the unmanaged averages hit about 10-11% annually. TWO lessons from what we are and will see:

1. NEVER trust the financial or investment MEDIA......they are absolutely incompetent and BIASED.

2. Human behavior NEVER changes.

YES.....I continue to be fully invested for the long term as usual.

 

YES.......I will take it all day long. I was RED today and got beat by the SP500 by 4.00%. PRIMARILY due to the very concentrated nature of my stock holdings and the fact that the companies like MSFT, AMZN, SNOW, GOOGL, etc, etc that have vastly outperformed with the help of the virus took a nice hit today.

WHY do I NOT care:

1. Those companies will BOOM going forward once we get past a day to two of vaccine mania. EVERY company that I own was a total POWERHOUSE.....before......the virus......and.....they will ALL continue to be going forward.

2. I have money going into the SP500 Index at the close today. Since most of the BIG stocks that make up the top ten of the SP500 were down......I will get the benefit of that in the price I have to pay when my trade happens later today. SO......even though the index was UP nicely today.....I got a little bit of a discount on the price I paid.

NOW.....going forward I have that money working for me three months early during a time period that I anticipate will be a BIG UP move in the general markets.

BUT WAIT.....what if the markets are NOT up over the next three months....what if they are even down? DO I CARE.......no......this is long term money and I know from the research that investing all in all at once......and.....the sooner the better......will work out in my favor over the long term.

 

EXACTLY......Zukodany. I agree completely. The MEDIA excuses for days like today are CRAZY and asinine. I saw one headline that we are in a rotation to VALUE companies and away from the GROWTH companies. NO.....not going to happen. From what I see on various sources.....there are very few VALUE investors around.

NO......this stuff is just a little few day event. The BIG CAP growth companies will CONTINUE to totally dominate the investment world for many many years to come. A short term tech sell off is NOT a rotation back to value. I have never bought this rotation crap.....anyway. It is just hindsight rationalization by the MEDIA and investment managers.......for their own herd behavior

I would personally put it in terms that used to be used in the OLD DAYS. Prices got a little bit ahead of themselves in the big cap tech world......along with....an election let down. So now we are seeing a little pull back to allow prices to consolidate and back-fill some before we begin the next run upward. When the prices get attractive......probably not too much lower......the bargain hunters will step in and start to buy. In addition I dont see a lot of enthusiasm for what we are going to go through over the next four years. I see the bankers and investors starting to wake up to the reality.

In any event.....a very dull and boring market today. I was of course in the red and got beat by the SP500 by .98%.

TOMORROW......is a new day. We begin again.

 

YEAH......what I HATE about the current and future financial and investing MEDIA is the......current and future.....trend of compressing everything for ratings. We get a drop for a week or two....it is a correction.....we get a tech drop for a couple of days.....it is a rotation to value.......tech stocks come back today.....the rotation is over......we get a drop for a month.....we are in a bear market. A LONG TERM investment is now......6-12 months. The financial media is driven by nothing but a RUSH FOR RATINGS and sensationalism. AND.....it is NOT going to get any better. It is all OPINION, OPINION, OPINION.....regardless of actual fact.......and much of it is REALLY DUMB opinion or some form of manipulation This is why the financial media is incompetent and irrelevant. We end up with a bunch of young and inexperienced MORONS just spouting off the cuff opinion for sensationalism......or.......picking up and being an ECHO CHAMBER for whatever is the BS story of the day.

AND......that is just the financial and investing media......dont even start on the regular media. There was a time when I was younger that an investor could actually......to a degree........trust what was in the media. Those days are LONG GONE.

So.....what do you do as an investor. First you must verify everything. Second you must doubt everything. Third you must use your common sense........and if you have been around a while.......your own years of experience and knowledge of the companies that you follow to weigh whether something sounds reasonable and accurate. NEVER doubt yourself in favor of some media story.

The other thing you do as an investor is.....SLOW DOWN.....be a long term investor. By having a long term horizon the immediate media driven......panic driven......feeling that you have to do something NOW....does not apply. Step back....take a deep breath....evaluate what you are thinking and do some deep research. Make investing decisions on the basis that you are going to live with that company or business for the long term......which to me means....hopefully 5-10 years or more. If you are looking at holding a company for many years.....it had better be a really good company and really fit your long term goals.

DITCH the trading mentality that is RAMPANT today EVERYWHERE. Call yourself an "INVESTOR" not a trader. Make INVESTMENT DECISIONS........not.......trades. There is a reason I call myself AN INVESTOR and never a trader. I INVEST in a company......I do not trade a stock. It is all about DEFINING and establishing your identity and setting in place a certain MENTALITY. In fact I usually dont use even the term......investor.....I prefer the term long term investor. LANGUAGE defines us and.......I believe......establishes....in our brains....the basis for our behavior.

Personally I discovered at a very young age the POWER OF VISUALIZATION. I have used it through my entire life in sports, school, business, and investing. Use this and other techniques to......see the future. The future that YOU want to live. Positive thinking techniques, visualization techniques, combined with long term thinking is the key to life changing family wealth in the investing world. These same techniques WILL ALSO be very useful in other aspects of life. ATHLETES use these techniques every day.....especially the professionals. As a musician......I use them all the time. I practice more in my head....than I do in person. Mental and physical MUSCLE MEMORY is HUGE. This can be achieved physically and more importantly......mentally.....in your head.

 

WHEW.......thank goodness that rotation to value from tech ONLY lasted two days. NICE to be back in the GREEN today as a result of the rotation away from value and back to big tech. AND.......I beat the SP500 today by 1.10%.

Nice to be back.....if that rotation had lasted another day or two......it would have been a BEAR MARKET for us tech investors. And.....who knows how long a big bad BEAR MARKET might last. WHY.....it might have even lasted for a WHOLE week.......OMG.....OMG.

YES.....the above is sarcasm.....for any new investors that might think I was actually serious. FROM here on is NOT sarcasm:

The investing MEDIA is INSANELY short term in their thinking and reasoning. This investing MEDIA INSANITY seems to be following the general media incompetence that we have seen ramp up to levels over the past four years that are absolutely MORONIC.

ACTUALLY....for the first time in my life.....I would say that the daily TV investing shows........Fox business and CNBC.....are ABSOLUTELY more accurate and informative than the print media. That is pretty sad.

 

While it is still before midnight.......I should mention VETERANS DAY. To ALL the veterans out there congratulations and thank you for serving your country.

I KNOW what you went through and the sacrifices you and your families made in the military. NO.....I never served in the military. BUT.....I did spend the first 21 years of my life living in post housing on Army bases, attending school through high school on Army bases, and in general living the typical life of a child of a career Army officer. Many of my high school classmates made the military a career since that is what we ALL grew up with and was the lifestyle we knew. My wife's father was a career Navy officer.....so she and I have a lot of shared experiences. I STILL feel at home whenever I am on an Army base.

THANK YOU to all the veterans and their families.......true AMERICAN PATRIOTS.

 

HERE is the ACTUAL news that is economic and investment related today. AS USUAL.....no one will care or consider this information. It is ESPECIALLY IRRELEVANT......since the policies that created this MASSIVE ROCKET RECOVERY.....are ALL going to now end. What will count going forward will be the policies that are in place a year from now. BUT.....in any event:

Jobless claims: Another 709,000 Americans filed new unemployment claims last week

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/init...ov-7-2020-coronavirus-pandemic-191217224.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Another 709,000 Americans filed for first-time unemployment benefits last week, marking another modest improvement in the number of those newly unemployed even as coronavirus cases in the U.S. continue to creep higher.

The Department of Labor released its weekly report on new jobless claims Thursday morning at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here were the main results from the report, compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:

• Initial jobless claims, week ended Nov. 7: 709,000 vs. 731,000 expected and a revised 757,000 during prior week
  
• Continuing claims, week ended Oct. 31: 6.786 million vs. 6.825 million expected and a revised 7.222 million during prior week
  

The Labor Department report showed an eleventh straight week that new jobless claims totaled below 1 million. But new claims have not yet broken back below 700,000 since the start of the pandemic and have held sharply above levels from before the outbreak. Throughout 2019, new initial unemployment claims were coming in at an average of just over 200,000 per week.

Most U.S. states reported declines in unadjusted new claims last week, led by Georgia with a drop of more than 14,000 initial claims. States grappling with rising new COVID-19 cases including Texas, New Jersey, Kentucky and Florida also reported notable decreases in their numbers of new claims. Washington state, on the other hand, saw the biggest leap last week, with new claims rising by more than 10,000.

Meanwhile, continuing jobless claims, representing the total number of individuals still receiving state unemployment benefits, broke below 7 million for the first time since mid-March for the week ended Oct. 31.

Some of that decline, however, came not because individuals returned to work, but because they rolled off state unemployment benefits and onto longer-term federal programs. As of last week’s report, the number of Americans that joined the Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation program, which provides another several weeks of benefits, increased by another nearly 160,000. And across all programs, about 21.2 million Americans were still receiving some form of unemployment assistance.

Rising COVID-19 cases in the U.S. and the onset of winter, however, have left economists on edge over whether the recent downtrend in new claims might unwind. Daily new cases of the virus broke above 100,000 for the first time since the start of the pandemic on Nov. 4, and have held above that level in every day since, according to data from the New York Times.

However, earlier this week, an explosive leap forward in the race to produce an effective COVID-19 vaccine offered hopes of a sustained economic reopening. On Monday, Pfizer (PFE) and BioNTech (BNTX) announced that their ongoing clinical trial so far showed their vaccine candidate was more than 90% effective in preventing COVID-19. Still, it will likely still be months before their vaccine, or one of their peer biotechnology companies’ candidates, is approved and distributed en masse.

The positive impact of the vaccine on the labor market and other areas of the economy, however, will likely come well before Americans receive their first doses.

“Households and firms are going to plan ahead, for example by booking travel, vacation, and capex [capital expenditures], and the implication is that we will immediately begin to see the positive effects on employment, GDP, and earnings, even before the vaccine is available to the public,” Torsten Slok, chief economist for Apollo Global Management, said in an email earlier this week."

MY COMMENT

It is interesting to me to see the BEGRUDGING reporting on this and many other investing and economic topics by the MEDIA. They just LOVE to being the DOOM&GLOOM into these reports. The TRUTH......yet another good report with results that BEAT the expectations. The results STEADILY move in the right direction week after week as this sort of data is released.

What STRIKES ME is the fact that these reporters.......that LOVE to place in the sort of article various negative factors....dont seem to EVER mention the economic changes that will come after January 20th. Those changes......a return to the economic policies of the recent past......will have a HUGE cumulative NEGATIVE impact on the economy. So in summary.......Is this good news? Yes....definitely. Will it matter.....probably not since the policies that created it are going to be set aside.

A PERFECT EXAMPLE of this is the.......news today.......obviously a trial balloon.......of a new National LOCK DOWN. Talk about an economy killer. AND....even worse....if this happens it will be an OBVIOUS negative to stock and fund investors. When we are ONLY a month or two from having and starting to administer multiple vaccines this would be simply DUMB.