The Long Term Investor

WELCOME.....BouncingAroundLife. Good to see you posting. Any other.....lurkers....feel free to participate and post.

I dont have any undervalued ideas right now. BUT......for dollar cost averaging......not individual stocks.......I STILL like the SP500 Index or for younger, more aggressive investors, perhaps the NASDAQ 100. Good diversification in either.....and.....hard for ANY investor....even the professionals.....to beat. If it was me.......I would much rather average into 100 or 500 stocks as a young new investor......compared to one or two individual stocks. It STACKS the odds much more in my favor.

As to a....potential crash. In my opinion waiting for or trying to predict a....crash....is a total waste of time. First....crashes...are rare and do not happen often. Perhaps.....1 or 2 or 3 times in a lifetime of investing. I am trying to think of how many....crashes....I have seen as a 45+ year investor. Perhaps only three. The flash crash in 1987.....the near banking collapse in 2008/2009 caused by out of control CDO's and other insane derivitives........and....the SELF INDUCED economic shutdown of 2020 due to the pandemic.

Second....if one happens....it will NOT be predictable. The next couple of months......my opinion....the odds of any sort of crash are as close to ZERO as is possible in investing. I do not buy the hyperinflation DOOM&GLOOM in the slightest. AND.....I actually.....do....put my money where my mouth is...having invested $300,000 in new money in one of the accounts that I manage at the open today.

My opinion is the OPPOSITE......we are going to spend the next year recovering from the pandemic and WILL reverse the voluntary economic shutdown. We are also going to see additional stimulus.......and.....a totally accommodating FED holding interest rates to record lows. The ENVIRONMENT for stocks and funds is EXTREMELY positive.

YES......as always....there is some small potential for a black swan event.......as is always the norm. AND....yes over the course of the year......as is normal....we will from time to time experience corrections. This is normal and part of a healthy market process.

For me.....as a long term.....fully invested all the time investor.....trying to predict a correction....or a bear market.....or even a rare crash......is simply market timing. If I am trying to predict and anticipate that type of event....it is likely I will totally miss out on the periods of spectacular gains while....waiting and trying to time...some unpredictable event that is just as likely to not happen
anyway.

Investing is not about predicting market moves....or conditions....it is about identifying good solid investments....stocks, mutual funds or ETF's.....and being invested for the long term to capture MAXIMUM COMPOUNDING. After all......I assume that is why you are talking about dollar cost averaging into an investment. For someone that is doing a dollar cost averaging strategy...who cares if there is a correction or even a bear market? You are capturing lower priced shares during those times. That is the..... VERY ESSENCE.....of the strategy of dollar cost averaging.

Just my personal opinion.......I am sure others will have some ideas and views on your questions. In the end....there is no right or wrong answer......ALL INVESTING IS PERSONAL. Find what works for you and stick with it for as long as it is working.

GLAD to have you here.......give us your thoughts......it is your money after all. NO ONE here.....has a magic eight ball. SO......feel free to agree or disagree.....no harm done and no hard feelings. The main thing is the free exchange of ideas and variety of opinion.

 

Since EVERYTHING is STILL about GameStop.....in the media.....here is a little article on the fringe of the issue.

Beware the madness of markets

https://www.ft.com/content/cdf7b2a1...traffic/partner/feed_headline/us_yahoo/auddev

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"The siren call of minting fabulous riches from the tap of a share trading app recalls past speculative manias down the ages that all ended badly; misallocating capital, wiping out savings and scarring investors.

A 1,500 per cent surge inside three weeks in shares of GameStop, a struggling video game retailer that few had heard of before, will in time become a staple of university finance courses. The uprising of retail investors against a group of hard-nosed hedge funds is an extraordinary tale and one that will spark scholarly treatises and perhaps even the full Hollywood treatment.

In the meantime, the growing buzz around a retail army in the US that brashly touts its views and trading prowess via the social media site, r/WallStreetBets, has attracted a massive influx of new followers and a surge in trading volumes among retail brokers, notably Robinhood.

Signs of a predominantly US online trading movement are registering in Japan, Malaysia, Korea, Europe and the UK, with shares jumping in companies that were under assault from short selling hedge funds. The retail crowd also turned from GameStop this week and briefly sent silver to its highest level in eight years.

The sight of retail money pouring into equities when valuations have already risen substantially is historically a warning sign that a market top beckons. That should be noted by any reader thinking about opening a new trading account. They don’t need to look far to see how the use of margin debt, sitting at a record level versus US gross domestic product, shows many investors are discarding a long term approach guided by fundamental asset values. Fear of missing out is a powerful force.

“There is nothing as disturbing to one’s wellbeing and judgment as to see a friend get rich,” wrote Charles Kindleberger, the author of Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises in 1978.

Envy scrambles the brain cells and persuades people that buying an asset at a new high makes perfect sense because the price will surely keep rising. This so-called “greater fool theory” defines the late stages of financial manias; tulips in 17th century Holland, the South Sea Company’s peak in London in 1720, gold’s tremendous spike in 1979-80, along with Japan’s real estate and equity booms of the 1980s. China has seen enormous speculative driven surges in the past decade, but pride of place rests with Wall Street and its epoch-defining manias.

The roaring twenties marked a point when investors discarded a focus on dividends and asset values to obsess over the future trend of earnings for companies, observed Benjamin Graham and David Dodd in the their first edition of Security Analysis published in 1934.

Buying good stocks and paying lip service to ever-rising valuations on the promise of their future earnings prowess powered Wall Street’s bull market of the 1960s and early 1970s, in the form of the “nifty fifty” stocks. Large US companies including IBM, Coca-Cola and General Electric were all-conquering in the eyes of investors until their high valuations popped in a savage bear market in 1973-4.

Topping that was the internet and telecom bubble during the second half of the 1990s. Another generation of retail traders embraced the idea that this time was different and you needed to own dotcoms that would have first-mover advantage in this new digital world. With the exception of Amazon, few delivered on that promise. Buyers of Intel and Cisco at the peak in 2000 are still waiting to see a new high.

Today, many look at the recent performance of bitcoin, the cryptocurrency that has regularly swung high and low in price, and frothy areas of the equity market and believe a similar pattern is being repeated. A prominent example is Tesla, whose shares have risen tenfold since March last year to value the company at $830bn, a market capitalization beyond its future earnings prospects and one that towers over established giants including Toyota, Volkswagen, Ford among others.

Another bubbly note resounds via a Goldman Sachs index of technology sector shares that do not produce profits. This basket has surged by nearly 400 per cent from March, having largely muddled along since its inception in 2014. Green energy funds and baskets of innovative tech company holdings. put together by ARK Investment, the New York investment company, have all experienced a supercharged performance during the past year.

“Speculation thrives when there is an ample amount of credit and investors have an opportunity to buy something that is new and exciting and captures the imagination,” observes Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, the UK retail platform broker.

GameStop is just latest sorry case of misallocated capital When the fear of missing out becomes the essential driver of asset prices, eventually the desire to realise vast paper profits prompts a rush for the exit. What crushes a bull market is not the first major pullback. Investors always buy the dip and they certainly did so last March and reaped the benefits.

At some point buying the dip stops working and that fate befell many in the lonely and increasingly frustrating months after the Nasdaq peaked in March of 2000. Investors discover to their cost that market momentum has truly changed from riding the escalator higher with an occasional pause, and becomes a series of juddering elevator descents towards ground level.

Today, someone holds the dubious honour of having bought GameStop at its peak of $483 last week, a stock now trading below $70. Being caught holding the bag does is not only the fate of the frequently derided “dumb money” of retail investors.

Stanley Druckenmiller recounted in 2015 that his worst mistake while managing money for George Soros was to chase internet stocks in March of 2000, after he had sold them earlier that year. Coming back for another flourish scarred Sir Isaac Newton during the South Sea bubble. After making a substantial profit from cashing out early, he was swept back into the mania of the time, only to rue a harsh lesson of financial gravity.

Frustratingly, a bubble only becomes clear in retrospect when it has burst and warnings of excess often arrive on the early side. In 1996, Alan Greenspan, then Federal Reserve chairman described the stock market as experiencing “irrational exuberance”, a warning that frequently invited contempt from bullish investors until the party finally ended in March of 2000.

Before the current pandemic, bubble warnings resounded at each new peak registered by the mighty tech titans, known as the Fangs, a group consisting of Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google. In February 2018, Cathie Wood of Ark Investment set a price target of $4,000 a share for Tesla from a then $300, that prompted ridicule in many quarters. Adjusted for its five-for-one stock split in August, Tesla blew past that target last month. Its share price rally of recent years has confounded hedge funds that frequently sought to bet against the company, while rewarding the true believers.

Changing investor sentiment When equities plunged last March, many expected a deeper reckoning that would play out for months. A “blink and you will miss it” bear market was followed by a rapid recovery that drove global and US equities to new peaks. This was driven by retail investors and hedge funds, followed by fund managers climbing on board later. There was none of the panic that gripped retail investors in 2008 and resulted in equities not establishing their lows until the following March.

This suggests a new dynamic underpinning investor behaviour. First, technology provides retail investors with plenty of market information and the ability to trade up a storm through online brokerage accounts. Among their ranks are former and current professionals with personal trading accounts.

They are also emulating what Wall Street has long done. Squeezing hedge funds such as Melvin Capital which committed the cardinal error of being stuck in a very crowded trade, has a long history among profession traders. This brings us to another key point. Courtesy of the pandemic and lockdowns, a powerful combination of record-low interest rates, government support packages and large personal savings rates helps explain a rational decision by many investors to buy equities, particularly the racier names.

With central banks committed to their present policies, not only does it make little sense to keep money in cash or own low-yielding bonds, retail investors sense, rightfully or not, that the equity market downside is limited. Central banks have for years rescued the pillars of the financial system when trouble has struck. And the growing prominence of retail investors means any big drop in equity values will resonate deeply across the broader economy. Many of us saving for retirement, which forms the backbone of the enormous asset management industry, will feel the claws of a protracted bear market. “The problem is that the psychological impulse to own something other than cash, regardless of price, has created a situation where stock market valuations have been bid up to levels that imply negative S&P 500 total returns for well over 12 years,” warned John Hussman, president of the Hussman Investment Trust in his latest market commentary.

This places the onus on all investors to observe prudent risk management particularly when markets have been propelled so high on the back of euphoria and cheap money. “Unless you turn off the monetary taps, speculation will continue rolling through financial assets,” says Mould of AJ Bell. And his counsel for retail investors is: “Never mistake a bull market for brains. We are waiting for the bell to ring that signals a top."

MY COMMENT

ENJOY the ride.....take the money that is being given to you. BUT.....invest in companies that you are prepared to hold for the long term....regardless....of the market being up or down.

We had a good day going at the open. We are slipping back some now...but that is normal recently. It is a long time till the close....but with the new stimulus bill and being a Friday.....lets look for a positive end to the week....and....lets ALL make some money today.

 

OK......I just completed a SALE of TESLA......in a couple of accounts. In two accounts I.......SOLD......enough shares of TESLA to take my initial investment off the table.....plus......a 50% profit.

I had well over 300% profit on the holding....so from here on in the two accounts I am playing with ....FREE MONEY. I will continue to hold the remainder of the shares....that ALL represent profit.....in both accounts. I will have 40 shares in one account and 130 in the other. At this time....I do not anticipate any further sales or buys of TESLA in either account. The Tesla shares were sold at $842 per share.

The funds that were raised by this sale have been REINVESTED.....today.....in Honeywell....Costco.....and Nvidia.....equal amounts in each company. The small balance of funds left after the purchases will go into the SP500 Index fund at the close today.

I have been waiting to take my initial investment and some profit in Tesla........off the table. I decided to just bite the bullet and do it today rather than waiting and hoping for a significantly higher price. An AMAZING buy....when I bought this stock in June. No need to get greedy and plenty of potential to benefit in any future growth by Tesla by holding my......FREE SHARES....for the long term.

 

Jwalker

I had ZERO awareness of ATVI till your post above. Those are certainly great results. I assume they are somewhat pandemic driven?

In general.....knowing nothing about this industry.....it seems like the gaming business is certainly here to stay.....and.....will continue to grow. We are just at the.......begining...... of the video and screen ERA.

I would not be too surprised to see video gaming....in the future...eclipse ALL professional sports...and...perhaps even replace HUMAN professional sports as entertainment for the BROAD general public....regardless of whether they personally play games or not. Seems like we are have just scratched the surface of where we are going to end up with GAMING.

ANYONE....keep in mind....I have never played a modern video game and know nothing about the business. SO....

 

Thanks.....I had the feeling that the momentum has slowed greatly recently....based on how the stock has been doing over the past 2-3 weeks. Seems to be having trouble sustaining any upward move from the mid $800's. So....I figured I would take the risk to my initial capital away for good with a nice 50% profit as icing on the cake.

I am also concerned with the electric vehicle.....just becoming a commodity.....and being like the majority of automobiles today. MOST automobiles today are basically using similar technology and it is hard to really differentiate them from each other in terms of the motors, electronics, body style, etc, etc. Of course the LUXURY bands are still somewhat distinct. Perhaps Tesla will become the LUXURY brand of the EV field.

I USUALLY......do not.....invest in auto companies. I made an exception for Tesla due to their other areas like....battery tech....self driving tech....etc, etc......as well as visionary leadership. BUT.....in the not too distant future......perhaps 5-10 years....I can see other companies catching up to them and basically producing an equal product.

 

NICELY....green today....with everything being UP except for minor losses in Apple, Costco, and Nvidia. PLUS....a solid beat of the SP500 by .27%.

Like probably everyone on here....I was at a new all time high....yesterday and again today. A GREAT week for the markets....with ALL the averages being up very nicely for the week and positive for the year.

SP500 for the week 4.65%
SP500 year to date 3.48%

DOW for the week 3.89%
DOW year to date 1.77%

NASDAQ 100 for the week 5.25%
NASDAQ 100 year to date 5.55%

NASDAQ for the week 6.01%
NASDAQ year to date 7.51%

SO......after the little diversion for GameStop.....we are NOW back on track.....with ACTUAL investing. We are BOOMING......with nice year to date GAINS in all the averages. Considering that we are ONLY.......5 weeks....into the year....we are experiencing an EXCEPTIONAL start to the year for......actual....investors.

 

Sounds like an interesting story Zukodany......you will have to fill us in some time....when the markets are dull and boring.

 

As we head into the weekend...with no markets to worry about....here is a little article with some interesting data about Americans and their 401K accounts:

The Average 401(k) Balance by Age

https://www.thestreet.com/retirement/401k/average-401k-balance?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"With the decline in workplace pension plans, the responsibility to save for retirement falls squarely on the shoulders of employees. While everyone’s situation is different, a look at some average savings levels by age can help you benchmark your progress.

Average 401(k) Balance by Age
Here are the average 401(k) balance by age range as of the second quarter of 2019, according to data released by Fidelity Investments.

Ages 20-29

• The average 401(k) balance was $11,800

• The median 401(k) balance was $4,300

• The average contribution rate was 7% of compensation

Ages 30-39

• The average 401(k) balance was $42,400

• The median 401(k) balance was $16,500

• The average contribution rate was 7.8% of compensation

Ages 40-49

• The average 401(k) balance was $102,700

• The median 401(k) balance was $36,000

• The average contribution rate was 8.5% of compensation

Ages 50-59

• The average 401(k) balance was $174,100

• The median 401(k) balance was $60,900

• The average contribution rate was 10.1% of compensation

Ages 60-69

• The average 401(k) balance was $195,500

• The median 401(k) balance was $62,000

• The average contribution rate was 11.2% of compensation

Fidelity is one of the largest administrators of 401(k) plans and these figures reflect participants in employer plans administered by Fidelity. As is no surprise, average account balance, as well as contribution rates, increase as workers get older.

(HERE...is a link to the Fiedleity 401K data PDF https://s2.q4cdn.com/997146844/files/doc_news/archive/36b897b5-30a5-48cb-9be9-9ecb0e39ff54.pdf )

They published aggregate data for 401(k), 403(b) plan and IRA account balance as of the end of the first quarter:

Average Retirement Account Balance

As you can see balance rebounded nicely after the poor year in the stock market in 2018, especially with the challenging fourth quarter. The strong stock market performance of the decade from Q1 2009 – Q1 2019 certainly also helped balance in these three types of retirement accounts. Possibly the strong performance of 2019 will help show increases in these overall balance the next time Fidelity measures them.

Balance Changes by Generation

Fidelity defined the generations as follows:

• Millennials are those born from 1981-1997

• Gen X are those born from 1965-1980

• Baby Boomers are those born from 1946-1964

There is a lot of data in the Fidelity study to digest. While this data helps provide a comparison of where your 401(k) balance might stack up compared to broad averages, it doesn’t address recommended retirement savings levels throughout your career to help determine if you are on track.

How Much Should I Have Saved for Retirement?
This is a question that financial advisers are often asked by their clients. The answer, of course, depends upon your situation.

Two major financial services firms, T. Rowe Price TROW and Fidelity Investments, have set rules of thumb regarding how much you should have saved for retirement in general, including 401(k) accounts, IRAs and other accounts, by various ages. Both firms have done this as a multiple of your salary. Their suggested savings levels by age are fairly similar. Fidelity recommends a 35-year old have twice their annual salary saved, while T. Rowe Price recommends 1 to 1.5 times the annual salary. At 45, the recommendation is 2.5 to 4 times the annual salary, for a 55-year-old, between 5 to 8.5 times the salary, and by retirement age, savers should have set aside about 10 to 14 times their salary.

In dollars, for someone earning $75,000 a year, this would translate to having these amounts saved for their retirement.

While these figures include money beyond what is in your 401(k), they still serve as a retirement savings benchmark beyond the average 401(k) balance discussed above.

For many of us, a 401(k), a 403(b) or similar workplace retirement plan will be our primary retirement savings vehicle. Balances accumulated in these types of plans will likely comprise a very significant percentage of the amount saved for retirement for many.

The analysis done by both firms comes to some similar conclusions and makes some similar recommendations for those saving for retirement. While not specific to 401(k) plans, these items are very relevant to those using a 401(k) or similar retirement plan as their primary retirement savings vehicle.

• Saving 15% of your salary annually in a plan such as a 401(k) is a good target for many people.

• Many 401(k) plans offer an employer match, it’s a good idea, if possible, to be sure to contribute enough to take full advantage of that match.

• It’s important to stay on track to the extent possible with your retirement savings. Especially for those who are younger, you have a long time until retirement and time can be a huge ally in building your retirement nest egg.

Beyond the nuts and bolts of saving for retirement, it's helpful to step back and look at what you are saving for. This includes things like:

• What does retirement look like for you? What do you intend to do in retirement, where do you plan to live? These and other factors will influence how much you will need to fund your desired retirement lifestyle.

• When do you plan to retire? The longer you are retired the more you will need to help ensure that you don’t run out of money in retirement.

Retirement averages and even target levels of retirement savings by age are helpful, but they are only a starting point for those using a 401(k) to save for retirement. The amount you should have in your 401(k) and your overall retirement nest egg at various ages will depend upon your situation. Use averages and savings benchmarks as a starting point and work from there.

MY COMMENT

EVERYONE that has an IRA, ROTH, 401K or other type of retirement account......is....a long term investor....whether you know it or not. OBVIOUSLY...the primary vehicle that.....most....people invest in for their retirement funds is....mutual funds, ETF's or individual stocks. On one hand it is shocking how low the numbers are above. On the other hand....at least people have something besides Social Security....even if the numbers are not that high. Combine these numbers with Social Security and a paid off house by retirement age and.....most....people will be able to get by.

Some....of the people in the oldest age group above will probably STILL have some sort of pension benefits. The younger ages above....unless you work for government....will be TOTALLY self funding retirement.

 

UNFORTUNATELY.....I cant say I was surprised by this jobs report. I doubt that I will be surprised by those in the future either:

Weak Jobs Report Shows We Need More Federal Stimulus--Now

https://www.forbes.com/sites/richar...d-more-federal-stimulus--now/?sh=7e3adfe5c6ee

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"This morning, we got the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) January employment report, and it isn’t good news. There’s virtually no job growth, especially in the private sector. The weak report strengthens President Biden’s case for quick—and big—federal spending to get the economy back on track.

Jobs are even worse when you look back to last year. Although total jobs ticked up by 49,000 in January, BLS revised previous months’ numbers downward. BLS now says we lost 227,000 jobs in December, so in the past two months we’ve lost 178,000 jobs.

And there was almost no private job growth in January—only 6,000 net jobs in the private sector. Virtually all net growth was in the public sector, and that was driven by state and local education jobs.

But don’t just look at monthly changes. Economist Elyse Gould at the Economic Policy Institute points out that we are “down 9.9 million jobs since February 2020,” just before the pandemic hit. And if the economy had kept growing instead of collapsing, we should have 12.1 million more jobs than we do.

The jobs report underscores our continuing “K-shaped” recovery, where upper income and higher educated workers have virtually recovered all their losses, while low-income workers and the long-term unemployed bear the recession’s costs. The long-term unemployed, those not working for over six months, now are close to 40 percent of all officially counted unemployed.

The numbers are actually worse, as they don’t count people who’ve dropped out of the workforce altogether. This is a particular problem for women, who are dropping out much faster than men because of their child and dependent care obligations.

Congress is moving ahead with Biden’s $1.9 trillion relief package, so far along totally partisan lines through the arcane “budget reconciliation” procedure which avoids possible filibusters. Biden is essentially double-tracking budget proposals, hoping to get Republican support but being ready to use reconciliation so the bill gets passed quickly.

Reconciliation is becoming more and more common on controversial budget bills due to increased Senate filibustering (it can’t be used for non-budget measures.). Republicans used it to pass President Trump’s tax cuts, at that time ignoring concerns about the deficit and partisanship. President Obama used it to enact part of Obamacare, while Republicans used it to try and repeal Obamacare.

Today’s weak jobs report strengthens Biden’s case for fast—and big—action. Treasury Secretary Yellen already has called on Congress to “act big,” fearing not only an inadequate recovery, but long-term “scarring” effects on the unemployed. (Yellen knows what she’s talking about—she was a distinguished academic economist prior to her public service, and labor markets were her main topic.)

But politics aside, today’s employment report shows a struggling economy that needs help. It looks like Biden and the Democrats are ready to provide it, with or without Republican support. And they’re right. Although bipartisan support would be welcome, that goal can’t displace the most important one—quickly passing a big enough package to help the economy recover.

MY COMMENT

Show me a government program that actually created private sector jobs.......as the article says:

"The weak report strengthens President Biden’s case for quick—and big—federal spending to get the economy back on track."

I am not sure I can......EVER......remember any government program creating private sector jobs. In FACT.....the opposite usually happens. NOT that it matters......as a stock investor....I dont care.....since the stock markets are not going to care in the slightest what the general economy is doing.....or if some person has a job. As long as we have money pumping.....and zero interest rates......and an EASY FED...that is what matters.

In fact.....continued DISMAL employment numbers......will actually be positive for stock investors.....as the government will continue to FLAIL AROUND....pumping money to try to create shovel ready and other jobs.....with NO RESULT as usual. Next we will....no doubt.....see a massive government INFRASTRUCTURE BILL.....perhaps....supported by both parties.....with the USUAL promises that it will create more jobs. BUT....in the end...the result will be the SAME AS ALWAYS......nothing to show for it....at least in terms of jobs.

ACTUALLY.....I am not sure I can ever remember any time that the government.....actually....was successfully able to manage the economy and get it to do what they wanted or anticipated.

This is a......PATHETIC.....report, with the PRIVATE SECTOR....creating 6000 jobs. SO...since the election.....we have lost 178,000 jobs. BUMMER.

AND.....nothing in the Stimulus Package is going to create jobs. At least the $15 minimum wage is not law.....yet....a SURE job and small business killer. AND....at least we have not raised the income taxes back up.....yet.....another sure job and small business killer.

As I said......in a PERVERSE WAY......the above will be good for stock investors.

 

YOU....are doing great gtrudeau88. With your returns over just 5 weeks into the year....you should nave NO complaints.

Andyvds:

I "like" your post above.....good commentary and observations.

"Yes there are some "hyped" overrated stocks out there; but we're all searching for those future "apple" "google" and "microsoft" companies that might replace the old Dow big players like IBM, Ford, Exxon, GE, etc."

As to your quote above......there is STILL a lot of life and BIG GAINS left in those stocks like Apple, Google, Microsoft, and others. I am CONTENT....to ride the DOMINANT big cap growth companies for as long as possible.

Personally....I dont do too much searching to try to identify the....next big thing. My theory is.......if I invest in too many companies.....too early in their life....most of them will not pan out. That does not mean that they will disappear......but they will not become anything special. To me......trying to find the next BARN-BURNER at too young an age is just not possible.

SO.....I prefer to keep my money in the BOOMING....mid life....big cap dominant growth stocks......Microsoft, Nvidia, Google, Apple, Amazon...... and even some old time stocks that are still extremely dominant.....like Costco, Nike, Home Depot, Honeywell, etc, etc. At the same time...I let the markets do the SIFTING for me. When it becomes clear that a company is at the starting point of being a big time company....I....hopefully.....see that earlier than most people and buy in.

SO....my theory is to wait till the handwriting is.......starting.....to appear on the wall.....and....is clear to see and than jump in. I am CONTENT.....to wait till it is becoming clear that a company is SPECIAL.

I know I am probably not mainstream on the topic of inflation....but....I really dont see much of a future issue with inflation. My thing is.....DEFLATION. That is what has been plaguing Europe for over 10-15 years now.....as well as Japan and much of the world. Here in the states.....with no signs of employment booming and companies continuing to cut jobs and outsource jobs to foreign low cost workers.....and eliminating employees through technology....I believe our issue like.......the rest of the world...... will be DEFLATION. I believe we will continue to concentrate wealth more and more and that ALSO will be deflationary. BUT....time will tell....as usual. Till than as a long term investor I am not going to worry about it one way or another.

 

I will say regarding my comments above.....I do have ONE stock that I am invested in as......a very young speculative company.......Snowflake. I am HOPING that it lives up to all the hype. BUT....I have kept my investment small and will be cautious about adding to it......although....I did add to it in the one account where I recently invested the $300,000. I put an equal allocation.....$10,000....into Snowflake just like the other holdings.....PLUS.....an extra $5000. AND....so far....I have a nice gain in the stock.

I purchased the stock at the IPO.....on September 16, 2020.......and.....to date have a gain of 24.92%. ALTHOUGH....this gain does not mean much since this is a totally speculative holding with a long time ahead of it to see how the company develops over time.......and if......it ever fulfills the hype.

Will it become a BIG CAP GROWTH dominant company over the years......way too early to tell. Just as likely they will be taken over by some bigger company over the next 2-5 years.....or.....will fail to deliver on the hype.