The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I find it AMAZING that the financial media and economists and others continue to beat the INFLATION....dead horse. YES......we had massive inflation back in the early 1980's......35-40....years ago. AND....since that time....NOTHING. Over that entire time....I have seen......the inflation BOGEYMAN raised over and over and over and over. It has impacted economic policy, investing, the FED, government policy....and.....has NEVER existed. TODAY....yes as usual.....we see many FLOGGING the old inflation argument. For those worried about......GASP.....inflation, here is a little article on the topic.

    Good News! More Pundits Are Worried About Inflation
    The more pundits worry about inflation, the less likely it shocks stocks.

    https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...news-more-pundits-are-worried-about-inflation

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Lately, politicians aren’t the only ones fighting over whether the Biden administration’s proposed go-big $1.9 trillion COVID fiscal response plan is too big. Economists are increasingly weighing in and, this week, inflation fear seems to be dominating the zeitgeist—hinging on the notion the plan will “overstimulate” America’s economy, especially after the $900 billion bill that passed Congress in December. In our view, while it makes sense to monitor inflation now, the argument currently circulating seems a little hollow. Positively, though, the more it makes the rounds, the less of a threat inflation seems to be to stocks.

    At its root, the overstimulation case rests on estimates of potential GDP. Potential GDP, for the uninitiated, is an estimate of where growth should be, were it not for shocks like the COVID lockdowns. Many also see it as a ceiling of sorts—the level at which GDP can grow without sparking hot inflation.

    The overstimulation argument holds that growth is nowhere near $1.9 trillion below potential GDP. Most prominently, former Clinton administration Treasury Secretary and Obama advisor Lawrence Summers argued in a recent Washington Post op-ed that the gap is actually only about a third of that, or a bit over $600 billion—a figure likely to shrink as 2021 progresses, with or without Biden’s plan passing. His view isn’t the only one. Many now say pumping $1.9 trillion into America’s economy would overshoot potential GDP and stoke hot inflation—particularly given the degree of money supply growth the Fed has engineered over the last year.

    Perhaps that all seems straightforward enough. But potential GDP is a theoretical construct, at best a guesstimate. It accounts for contractions and shifts in the growth trajectory only after the fact. It is a fine enough thing to facilitate debate about where growth ought to be, given some set of inputs and assumptions. But it is the furthest thing from precise. Said differently, economics is not science or a math equation. No one can know how much output is below “shoulda-been” GDP now, and there is limited evidence such a theoretical figure has any real-world meaning.

    Moreover, even if the Biden plan passes with the $1.9 trillion price tag, it isn’t “stimulus” in the traditional sense of the term. The plan is highly unlikely to boost demand by anything approaching the headline number. For one, a not-insignificant portion of this plan are checks to American households. As economists John F. Cogan and John B. Taylor noted in a January Wall Street Journal op-ed, history doesn’t suggest direct payments to households boost growth materially.[ii] One reason why: There is no assurance they will spend the money. Households could use it to pay down debt or rebuild savings. The huge increase in America’s savings rate from 7.2% in December 2019 to 13.7% at 2020’s close suggests many are doing just that.[iii] Maybe that money will be spent after re-opening! But maybe it won’t be, and consumers took away the lesson from the crisis that they needed a bigger cushion. That was one lesson Corporate America took from 2008’s short-term credit and money market freeze. In the years thereafter, they increased cash holdings massively.

    Biden’s plan also allocates $350 billion for state and local government assistance. This money isn’t assured to be spent—it is designed to fill holes in their budgets. Other provisions, like increased federal unemployment benefits, rent and utility subsidies and food stamps aren’t an increase to demand—they replace what lockdown-driven joblessness wrought. This isn’t to say they are unhelpful. Just that they aren’t the stuff of white-hot economic growth.

    In short, Biden’s plan is light on direct spending. Now, even direct spending very often suffers from misallocated investment and/or delays in getting going. The “shovel-ready projects” so many touted in 2009 were always much more rhetoric than reality. But whatever you think of said stimulus plans, they at least theoretically have a multiplier effect as money changes hands and gets spent time and again. Absent direct spending, this effect looks likely to be very weak, if it is present at all.

    We aren’t saying inflation generally isn’t a risk. It is one. The massive money supply increase the Fed somehow concluded was justified, even though no amount of monetary action could “fix” economic lockdowns, is potentially inflationary. But we say “potentially” because money supply alone isn’t likely to do it. Inflation erupts from too much money chasing too few goods and services. Chasing is key—money must change hands via lending and spending. Yet a key metric of that, M2 money velocity, is hovering near all-time lows.[iv] That is worth watching for a rise, but there are few material signs of it now. In our view, because it isn’t a big boost to demand, there is little reason to think Biden’s stimulus plan—even at its full price tag—will light the fuse.

    In our view, perhaps the biggest takeaway from the whole debate is this: People are increasingly watching for inflation and worried about it. For investors, that is good news! As we often say, surprises move stocks most of all. More and more pundits watching and warning of inflation means it is less likely to sneak up on stocks, in our view."

    MY COMMENT

    If I went back over the past 36 years.....EVERY......economic event in the news will have someone predicting that it will cause........OH NO......inflation. It is just a bad JOKE. For 35 years now.....we have been looking under the bed....every night for the.....inflation monster. ALL....because way back in the early 1980's....we had high inflation. Conditions NOW are......nothing.....like that era. The economy now is.....nothing....like that era.

    As I have said many times......there is absolutely NO evidence of inflation now....in fact....as usual...we could use MORE inflation at the moment. As a stock and fund investor.....the LAST thing on my mind is whether or not we are going to get some inflation.
     
  2. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    The few times I post an article about....or by.... CRAMER.....I always end up saying that I am NOT a Cramer fan. BUT once in a while I run into a good article by him or about him in some way. ALTHOUGH....I have to say.....I have actually NEVER seen his show. I do like this little article regarding the current earnings season as well as what to expect in the SHORT.....4 day market week......next week.

    Cramer’s week ahead: Earnings season has been ‘far better’ than expected

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/12/cra...season-has-been-far-better-than-expected.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Key Points
    • CNBC’s Jim Cramer said that Friday marks the official end of earnings season, which has been better than he predicted.
    • After the stock market closed on Friday, the “Mad Money” host said trading activity was more normal after weeks of high volume transactions.
    • “A day with less froth, like today, is a day where the rally feels more sustainable,” he said.

    CNBC’s Jim Cramer, marking the end of earnings season, on Friday said the slate of major corporate reports over the past weeks were “far better than anyone expected.”

    The results revealed, he said, that investors have a range of investment opportunities, barring any speculative trading that has lately confounded Wall Street professionals.

    The comments come after major U.S. averages rose in Friday’s session, turning in back-to-back weeks of gains that took the market to new highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average moved 1% higher this week to close at 3,458.40 and the S&P 500 increased 1.23% to 3,934.83. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite outgained bot, climbing 1.7% higher to 14,095.47.

    After the close, Cramer said market activity has become less volatile after multiple weeks of high-volume trading.

    “I like normal, because if we’re not careful, a good portion of this market might be headed down the highway to the danger zone,” the “Mad Money” host said. “A day with less froth, like today, is a day where the rally feels more sustainable. But if the cannabis cohort and the short-busters and the incredible pumping and dumping I am seeing on the web is coming back, well you know I’m going to have to get more negative.”

    Cramer gave his game plan for the week ahead. Earnings-per-share projections are based on FactSet estimates:


    [​IMG]

    Tuesday: CVS Health, Zoetis, Ring Central and Occidental earnings
    CVS Health
    • Q4 earnings release: before market; conference call: 8:45 a.m.
    • Projected EPS: $1.24
    • Projected revenue: $68.73 billion
    “CVS has been challenged as a drug store by Amazon and challenged on the health insurance side by a host of competitors,” Cramer said. “If [CEO Karen] Lynch can raise numbers and back that up some solid traffic projections … I could see the stock finally getting the traction it deserves.”

    Zoetis
    • Q4 earnings release: before market; conference call: 8:30 a.m.
    • Projected EPS: 86 cents
    • Projected revenue: $1.74 billion
    “I think you’ll see another round of gains in the humanization of pets stocks,” he said.

    RingCentral
    • Q4 earnings release: after market; conference call: 5 p.m.
    • Projected EPS: 27 cents
    • Projected revenue: $318 million
    “RingCentral makes call center software, but they’ve also got a video conference platform that competes with Zoom and grows well,” the host said. “The company’s aggressive and it grows rapidly.”

    Occidental Petroleum
    • Q4 earnings release: after market; conference call: Wednesday, 11 a.m.
    • Projected losses per share: 58 cents
    • Projected revenue: $4.32 billion
    “Many are predicting that the long bear market in oil is over. I am not so sure about that — too much supply — but if you believe it, no one is more bullish on oil than Occidental’s CEO, Vicki Holub,” he said.

    Wednesday: Shopify, Twilio, Fastly, Pioneer Natural Resources and Boston Beer earnings
    Shopify
    • Q3 2021 earnings release: 6 a.m.; conference call: 8:30 a.m.
    • Projected EPS: $1.26
    • Projected revenue: $913 million
    Twilio
    • Q4 earnings release: after market; conference call: 5 p.m.
    • Projected losses per share: 8 cents
    • Projected revenue: $455 million
    “I bet two of them deliver stellar, amazing quarters,” Cramer said.

    Fastly
    • Q4 earnings release: after market; conference call: 5 p.m.
    • Projected losses per share: 11 cents
    • Projected revenue: $82 million
    “They’ve been rebuilding their credibility after a big shortfall in October,” he said. “I think the problems are behind them.”

    Pioneer Natural Resources
    • Q4 earnings release: after market; conference call: Thursday, 9 a.m.
    • Projected EPS: 70 cents
    • Projected revenue: $1.89 billion
    “I don’t recommend many oil companies these days, but if you put a gun to my head to make me choose, I’d say, ‘would you please put the gun down and just go buy Pioneer,’” the host said.

    Boston Beer

    Q4 earnings release: 4:15 p.m.; conference call: 5 p.m.
    • Projected EPS: $2.63
    • Projected revenue: $453 million
    “If one more company enters this hard seltzer business, will it be too much for them to handle?” he said. “I bet you can get still get another good quarter here, but do not overstay your welcome when you have guns coming at you like those guys. The field is getting crowded.”

    Thursday: Walmart, Barrick Gold, Applied Materials, Roku, The Trade Desk
    Walmart
    • Q4 2021 earnings release: 7 a.m.; conference call: 8 a.m.
    • Projected EPS: $1.51
    • Projected revenue: $148.26 billion
    “I want to hear about some initiatives and benchmarks that show us that Walmart’s still hungry,” Cramer said.

    Barrick Gold
    • Q4 earnings release: 6 a.m.; conference call: 11 a.m.
    • Projected EPS: 31 cents
    • Projected revenue: $3.25 billion
    “I know that CEO Dr. Mark Bristow will give you a look at the only real growth and income play in the industry I trust,” he said. “It’s a buy ahead of the quarter if you like gold.”

    Applied Materials
    • Q1 2021 earnings release: 4:01 p.m.; conference call: 4:30 p.m.
    • Projected EPS: $1.28
    • Projected revenue: $4.97 billion
    “The stock has been rallying like crazy because of the [chip] shortage, but I think things are good enough for it to keep climbing, especially since the Biden White House seems to recognize the scale of the problem,” the host said.

    Roku
    • Q4 earnings release: after market; conference call: 5 p.m.
    • Projected losses per share: 6 cents
    • Projected revenue: $615 million
    Trade Desk
    • Q4 earnings release: after market; conference call: 5 p.m.
    • Projected EPS: $1.88
    • Projected revenue: $292 million
    “These companies are cord-cutting kingpins that are designed for the new world of watching and advertising sans cable. Everyone keeps wondering when their gains will stop,” he said. “Me, I’m wondering why anyone expects them to stop when it took cable decades to supplant traditional broadcast TV.”

    Friday: Deere and Magna earnings
    Deere
    • Q1 2021 earnings release: before market; conference call: 10 a.m.
    • Projected EPS: $2.12
    • Projected revenue: $7.14 billion
    “I bet Deere tells a story of higher commodity prices that has its order books brimming with tractors,” Cramer said.

    Magna
    • Q4 earnings release: before market; conference call: 8 a.m.
    • Projected EPS: $2.58
    • Projected revenue: $13.03 billion
    “We’ve got a red-hot auto market, they’re the best assembler, and these guys also assemble cars for compelling electric vehicle players, like Fisker,” he said.

    MY COMMENT

    The BIG ONES to me next week are on Thursday....WALMART and APPLIED MATERIALS. As has been the case for the past quarters....earnings....have come in MUCH stronger than anticipated. We have now....OFFICIALLY......moved past all the pandemic earnings DOOM&GLOOM. ALL the pundits and articles about how 2nd...3rd....and....4th quarter earnings were going to be BAD....were WRONG.....dead wrong.

    ENJOY the three day weekend........and.....lets come back on Tuesday and.....MAKE SOME MONEY.
     
    #3562 WXYZ, Feb 13, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 13, 2021
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  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    IF......I remember.....I am going to start including the RUSSELL 2000 in my Friday list of Indexes.....weekly and year to date results. This will give a snapshot of the small cap side of the markets for each week. SO......here are the numbers for the past week.

    RUSSELL 2000 for the week +2.51%
    RUSSELL 2000 year to date +15.93%
     
  4. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    I’m surprised Cramer has no interest in Palantir. I think it’s a mammoth in the making.
     
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  5. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I started following the Russell 2K a few years ago, when I realized the S&P 500 is influenced too much by politics.

    The R2K is a nice, objective, index. I mentioned it a few times in my thread over the last few years but it's not something I live or die by.
     
  6. Mark Zoske

    Mark Zoske New Member

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    I purchased GRLF penny stock a few years ago. It has been asleep ever since. In the last couple of weeks it has shot straight up. Should I buy more, sell, or hold? Marijuana stocks have been doing really well and GRLF is only a fraction of a cent. I was able to buy 3m shares for a couple hundred bucks. Obviously, this is a lottery stock. It could become a $1 stock and I would be rich.

    I am not holding my breath, but I do inhale.

    Thanks for your advice! MZ
     
  7. Mark Zoske

    Mark Zoske New Member

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  8. Mark Zoske

    Mark Zoske New Member

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    I purchased GRLF penny stock a few years ago. It has been asleep ever since. In the last couple of weeks it has shot straight up. Should I buy more, sell, or hold? Marijuana stocks have been doing really well and GRLF is only a fraction of a cent. I was able to buy 3m shares for a couple hundred bucks. Obviously, this is a lottery stock. It could become a $1 stock and I would be rich.

    I am not holding my breath, but I do inhale.

    Thanks for your advice! MZ
     
  9. Rustic1

    Rustic1 Well-Known Member

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    Oh lord. Somebody preloaded for the dump. You bought at .0001, hmmm?
     
  10. Wade W

    Wade W New Member

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    Can I get your take on crypto? I’m new here and I’m sure you’ve maybe posted about it but I’m still
    Navigating the site. Just curious. I read what you said about inflation and aren’t people supposedly going crazy over crypto due to their beliefs about inflation? Thanks for your time.
     
  11. Lori Myers

    Lori Myers Member

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    Some interesting posts regarding my Tesla investment. I had never considered selling any but after reading TomB16s excellent posts over on his thread and seeing how WXYZ sold his initial investment it has given me something to think about. Thanks!
     
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  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Mark Zoske

    No idea.....and no interest in penny stocks.

    Wade W

    I do not particularly follow crypto. I am sure there is a thread or two on this site that is dedicated to crypto. At one time I bought ONE Bitcoin at about $2900. I sold it in increments between $9000 and $12000 to help fund an art purchase. For the past four months I have been putting $100 per month into my bitcoin account.......as a lark. At the current prices it will take me a long long time to get anywhere. That is the extent of my experience with Crypto.

    I DO note....this story around the internet today.....seems like Crypto is becoming more and more of a mainstream investment lately.

    Morgan Stanley Unit Considers $150 Billion Bitcoin Investment: Bloomberg
    Morgan Stanley already has a nearly 11% stake in the bitcoin-laden business intelligence company MicroStrategy.

    https://www.coindesk.com/morgan-stanley-unit-considers-150-billion-bitcoin-investment-bloomberg

    Lori Myers

    Yes....I sold out enough of my Tesla to take my initial investment off the table PLUS......a 50% profit. At the time......I had a gain of well over 300%. So after the sale I have 135 shares in two accounts. I initially purchased.....pre-split. I STILL have just over $100,000 in the stock...between the two accounts....that is enough in that holding for my taste. I was planing to wait a bit and hope to do the same sale at a higher price. BUT....after the past 2-3 weeks.....I just felt that a lot of the momentum was out of the stock.....for now. BUT......who knows.
     
    #3572 WXYZ, Feb 13, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 13, 2021
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  13. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    This little article somewhat summarizes the past year. We are approaching the.....ONE YEAR......anniversary of all the Covid stuff.....and....the voluntary shut down of the American economy for the first time in history.

    A look at the state of the stock market one year since its pre-Covid peak

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/13/a-l...arket-once-year-since-its-pre-covid-peak.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Key Points
    • There are several similarities between the market at its pre-Covid peak on Feb. 19, 2020 and today, including worries about growth stock domination, valuations and speculative story stocks.
    • But there are some key differences like $5 trillion and counting in deficit-financed fiscal support, a Federal Reserve turned maximum easy for a long time to come and a rush of smaller investors into the market.
    • The untamed animal spirits coursing through Wall Street says both that this is a powerful and well-sponsored bull market and that risks of a wild overshoot are building.
    For all the unprecedented events and unforeseen consequences of the past year, market conditions today rhyme rather closely with those of mid-February 2020, when stocks peaked right before the Covid crash.

    In the six months leading to the Feb. 19, 2020, crest in the indexes, the S&P 500 had gained 15.8% to a series of new all-time highs. Today, the index is up 15.9% the past six months, and has been clicking to new records for most of that span.


    [​IMG]
    Much of the talk around the market is similar, too: Worries that too much of the market is dominated by a few huge growth stocks (the top five S&P stocks were 20% of the index then and are 22% today) and that investor sentiment had perhaps grown too complacent.

    Then, as now, the S&P was at a 20-year high in terms of valuation, the forward price/earnings ratio then just above 19 and now surpassing 22 – yet for those who choose to compare equity earnings yields to Treasury yields, the gap is pretty close: 3.7 percentage points then versus 3.3 now.

    The spread on high-yield bonds has made an almost-perfect round trip in the past year, sitting right at extreme lows, which fits into a sense that generous credit markets are lubricating the economy and markets.


    [​IMG]
    Here’s how this equity-asset support from forgiving debt capital markets was characterized in this column one year ago this weekend:

    Real investment-grade corporate bond yields are scarcely above zero. The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index shows the liquidity backdrop is as loose as it’s been this cycle...A clear majority of S&P 500 stocks have dividend yields exceeding the 10-year Treasury yield. While no perfect relative-value indicator, this tends to provide a buffer underneath equity valuation.”

    All of that is true today as well. And so is the fevered buying in a clutch of expensive “story stocks” which excites younger and more-aggressive investors while making the traditionalists a bit nervous.

    A year ago: “A cluster of what might be called ‘idiosyncratic speculative-growth’ stocks are also acting quite frisky this year, a sign that investors are grasping aggressively for the next big thing (or perhaps just the next quick buck). ” Then it was Tesla, Beyond Meat and Virgin Galactic. Today it is several-dozen names from GameStop to Canadian cannabis to fuel cells to early-stage fintech apps.

    What’s different now
    So, the echoes are pretty clear as this anniversary approaches. The differences, though, are several, important and make the current market more dynamic in ways both favorable and – potentially, eventually - hazardous.

    Let’s be clear that noting the similar market set-up now is not remotely to predict anything like a repeat of the market collapse and economic calamity that began to unfold in late February of last year. The coronavirus spread was a genuine external shock, the forced global economic halt a first, the five-week-35% freefall unprecedented.

    Which brings us to some of the more crucial differences between now and a year ago. The collapse reset the clock on the economic cycle and policy stances. From 2019 into 2020 Wall Street was caught in a late-cycle vigil, with the economy near peak employment, the Treasury yield curve flat, corporate profit margins near peak, earnings projected to be flat.

    The Fed was on hold indefinitely in February 2020 with short rates at 1.5-1.75%, but a significant minority of Fed officials was projecting a rate hike in 2021.

    The flash recession and profit collapse prompted some $5 trillion in deficit-financed fiscal support with more likely, and turned the Fed maximum easy for a long time to come, intent on waiting for a return to full employment and a lasting rise in inflation before making any tightening moves.

    So, yes, valuations are higher now and investor expectations could be growing unrealistic.

    But Corporate America refinanced itself for years to come at invitingly low rates against a Fed backstop, earnings will be back above their prior peak this year, government is eager to run the economy hot and (arguably) policy makers just executed a repeatable process for short-circuiting a recession.

    Smaller investors rush in
    Another way that things have changed in a year is the headlong rush of smaller investors into the market, feeling invincible after making it through the crash and riding a near-80% rebound in the S&P 500.

    Investors’ willingness to gorge on leveraged upside bets in the form of call options in unprecedented volumes and the instant mark-up of new IPOs such as DoorDash, Snowflake and AirBNB to multi-tens-of-billions in market value at towering revenue multiples shows a new more aggressive and risk-tolerant ethos to the tape.

    Some of this energy was already starting to flow a year ago, but it hadn’t gained nearly as much momentum or taken on as much of a viral character. The Russell Micro-Cap Index is up 65% in 3 ½ months. Penny-stock volumes have quintupled over the same period. Overall trading volumes are surging even with the indexes rallying – the reverse of the typical pattern and harkening back to a similar pattern from the late 1990s. Equity inflows in the latest week set a new record.

    Social-media stampedes took GameStop shares from $12 to $400 back to $52 the past two months, and then ran Tilray from $18 to $63 back to $29 in two weeks. Meantime, volumes in staid S&P 500 ETFs has sunk toward multi-year lows, apparently not racy enough for the marginal buyer.

    That entire litany describing the untamed animal spirits coursing through Wall Street says both that this is a powerful and well-sponsored bull market and that risks of a wild overshoot are building. Then again, everyone is aware they are building and have been sounding alarms for a while.

    Bank of America indicator nearing sell territory
    Does the fact that subsectors of Reddit stocks and faddish green-energy plays get overblown and then punctured without undermining the big-cap indexes say they aren’t dangerous? Or is the fact that a few days of headlong buying in small short-squeeze stocks late last month triggered a quick 4% S&P 500 spill a warning that the erratic tremors can’t always be safely dissipated through the market’s foundation?

    A year ago, Bank of America global strategist Michael Hartnett was telling investors to keep playing risk assets “until investors grow more clearly ‘euphoric,’ which he expects will mark the moment of ‘peak positioning and peak liquidity.’” Hartnett is holding that same vigil now, his Bull & Bear Indicator correctly keeping investors involved but inching up to a contrarian Sell threshold (which has preceded corrections in the past and was last hit in early 2018).


    [​IMG]
    All of this goes back to the thought aired here in early January that 2021 presents as a novel blend of 2010 and 1999 – the first full year of a new bull market riding long-acting recovery forces, blended with the final year of a powerful bull market that blasted through every upside target and created levels of excess that took a couple years to work off.

    Interestingly, though, the core of the market captured by the S&P 500 is metabolizing this mixture with a rather steady and well-behaved - one might even say boring - uptrend. At least for now."

    MY COMMENT

    YES...many similarities....but massive differences considering the shut down of the entire economy...the FED stance.....the new administration....etc, etc, etc.

    At this point it is EASY to see that......virtually ALL.....the DOOM&GLOOM expectations and predictions....DID NOT come true. We DID......in fact..... experience a MASSIVE....V shaped recovery that is still happening today. How long this lasts is anybody's GUESS.

    At this point...the economy....is part way through a HUGE re-set. We STILL...have a long way to go to get things opened....and...back to normal. In addition....it is unknown....how much of a DRAG the new administration and their.....EXTREMELY DIFFERENT..... social, economic, tax, immigration, and regulatory policies will have on the markets and the economy going forward.

    We will just have to.....live it....to see. As a long term.....fully invested all the time investor.....I will take what the markets give me....and....go from there as we move forward. I dont have a ......crystal ball...or....a magic eight ball....so short term I have no idea. Longer term....I am content to let the markets and my particular holdings give me typical long term gains.

    I will mention......again....for the benefit of anyone new on here.....my stock market money is invested for life. The way I have my finances set up.....for retirement.....I will NOT need any of that money for living expenses. This allows me to be.....fully invested all the time......with NO risk to my future. This allows me to have an extremely long term horizan and a higher risk tolerance toward having money exposed to the markets.

    BARING....some new black swan event.....from here forward...we are back to a NORMAL market for investors.
     
    #3573 WXYZ, Feb 13, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 13, 2021
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  14. Jwalker

    Jwalker Active Member

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    I don’t think of crypto as an investment. It’s pure speculation that in the future it will be a more common medium of exchange. The government is going to start cracking down on it at some point because people are avoiding paying capital gains on them because in the past it wasn’t reported anywhere. They actually already are in the form of a required disclosure on your tax return signed under penalties of perjury.

    I personally don’t understand the fascination with crypto. Bitcoin is the same as video game gold... Change my mind. Someone out there will give you real cash at a fluctuating exchange rate but it’s not something I’m interested in being apart of. At least with other assets like gold there is something physical to hold.

    Lastly, Bitcoin has done great this last year and seems to becoming more main stream. But wait until there is a true bear market, do you really think that people want an asset that only exists on the line and is literally nothing? Not backed by any assets, doesn’t produce revenue, has had insane runs... In the event of a bear market (which I’m not saying is around the corner or anything), I wouldn’t be interested.

    I say this all with the asterisk that this is my opinion and not trying to offend anyone who does hold crypto. I’ll kick myself when it hits another 1000% return.
     
  15. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I do agree Jwalker. At some point there is going to be a BIG government crack down on Crypto. No doubt under the guise of preventing terrorism. GOVERNMENT.....just can not stand being shut out of something/anything.......controlling it......and getting their take.
     
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  16. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    LOL......Jwlaker....all this talk of Crypto made me log into my Coinbase account to see how I am doing. I have a nearly 90% gain over the past four months. Sounds good......in theory...but considering my total purchase is $100 per month for four months.....not really talking about life changing money.

    The ONLY Crypto that I buy......with my $100 each month.....is Bitcoin. I see this little monthly deposit into bitcoin as a.....WILD GAMBLE....for when it hits $1,000,000.

    NOTE: I have been careful in this post NOT to say......investment....or......investing.....since I DO NOT consider this little FLYER an investment. It is just for fun and games. TOTALLY MAD MONEY.
     
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  17. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Crypto can be a hedge, as can any foreign currency.

    Trading crypto is gambling, just as trading anything is.
     
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  18. Syynik

    Syynik Well-Known Member

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    Do you currently own stocks you love for the next 1,5,10 years? If so, then by all means add. If you are happy and looking for new opportunities, I would suggest you wait until you have 1k or more and then dump that money into your new ideas.
     
  19. ResponsibleYogurt300

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  20. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    NO INTEREST in penny stocks. YOU are wasting your time here.
     
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