The Long Term Investor

I dont want to give the impression with the posts on the prior page that I come from some elite...old money family. Our family pulls together for the new generations....because....that is what they HAD to do. On my dad's side.....both my grandparents....go way back to before the Revolutionary war......but about all that will get you is a membership in the DAR (Daughters of the American Revolution) and no one cares about that anymore. Unfortunately they ALL lived in an area of EXTREME poverty and isolation deep in the Appalachian Mountains.

My Great Grandfather was born just after the cival War. He grew up with an EXTREMELY VIOLENT father and an EVIL stepmother.....one of 21 children. At age 13/14 the physical beating became so intolerable that he had to run away from home and work doing farm labor for room and board. He still pursued schooling as he could around working.....and eventually was able.....with lots of help from churches and others that saw potential in him....to get some college and become a lawyer. At some time....after he got to be in his late teens or early twenties.....he had a confrontation with his father and let him know.....forcefully.... that if he ever beat any of his younger brothers and sisters again...he would kill him.

Because of his upbringing....he placed extreme value on education. He had 6 kids of his own and put all six through college including the girls. This was extremely rare in such a small isolated poor area. Those kids became....a doctor, a dentist, a lawyer, two teachers, a teacher/principal. My grandfather was the teacher/principal. They ALL continued to live within 50 miles of that original, very isolated area. Back in those days none of these occupations made much money in that poor area.

My father broke away from that area when he was drafted for WWII. After the war he finished his college degree by about 1950. He became a career Army officer when he got called back up for the Korean war.

Because of my dads Army job......I was lucky to spend most of my childhood through High School on one Army base in Texas......with the exception of living in Germany from 1958 to 1961. Growing up in the Army was a great childhood. I never lived off base till I went to college. It was like living in a very cohesive small town in the middle of a big city. Back than EVERYTHING on an Army base was first class all the way...the facilities, schools, sports arena, PX, commissary, movie theaters, swimming pools, library, teen club, etc, etc.

Everyone in the school system on post was Army kids. A very cohesive group with NONE of the usual High School Cliques. We had all lived all over the world...Japan, Italy, France, Germany, Africa, etc, etc...so we all had a very different view of things compared to most kids growing up in the 1950's and 1960's. Our schools were fully integrated way before the public schools. It was a different but very successful way to grow up. Back in the late 1960's I think just about 100% of our high school class went to college.

The first real money in my family was due to my mom's investing and my taking over her account in the 1990's. They were TOTALLY the "Millionaire Next Door" people.....not ultra rich but comfortable with their pension and assets. My mom's family ALSO put high value on education of the next generations. Her father...in the 1940's put four girls and one boy through college. He was a businessman in a small town....the owner of the local Abstract Company and the local Savings & Loan along with his brother. Sending all the girls off to college back than was a very rare thing.

As was the norm for my family...my parents put all their children through college. I did the same.

SO...that is what I mean that all the generations take care of the new generation. All the living older generations make sure that the new generation goes to college and gets out with no debt and gets a good start in life. Most of my family on my dad's side STILL lives within 100 miles of that original very small town.

I STRONGLY believe that my values and success go back to my great-grandfather....as well as....my grandparents on my mom's side.....and......how they all pulled together for the good of the family.

 

OK....enough BLAH, BLAH, BLAH....back to investing. I see that at least the DOW and SP500 are now positive....GREAT. When I have a chance to look at things I will calculate where I am to date in my primary account.

 

YES.....today....RED as expected, but actually much less that it looked like earlier in the day. Plus....got beat by the SP500 by .69%.

For the year......still barely positive......by .0095.....about 1/10 of one percent. ALL in all....considering what I own....I am satisfied for this early in the year. How we end up by year end is STILL far away and as usual.....I expect to see a good return for the year for the general averages.

So.....anyone else have the GUTS....to put up a REAL year to date figure? (just kidding) Come on oldmanram....you started this.

 

I am adjusting my year to date return.....now.....+0.0115.......a bit over 1/10 of one percent.

 

SO.......moving on with some......actual....investing content......even though we just lived this a few hours ago:
Stock market news live updates: Stocks reverse some losses, Nasdaq holds lower as tech shares extend rout

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-february-23-2021-232120081.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"The S&P 500 was on track to end a five-day losing streak, shaking off earlier losses. The Dow erased losses of as many as 360 points, or more than 1%, to push into positive territory Tuesday afternoon.

The Nasdaq, however, added to steep losses and dropped more than 2% at session lows before paring some declines, as investors rotated away from growth and tech shares. Shares of airlines, cruise lines, lodging companies and other service-based beneficiaries of a post-pandemic economic reopening added to Monday's gains, and cyclical sectors including energy and financials were poised to outperform anew.

On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered his semiannual monetary policy testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, offering another update on his view for the path forward for monetary policy during and after the pandemic. In his remarks, Powell reaffirmed that the Fed was looking to maintain its current accommodative policy posturing for the time being, keeping benchmark rates near zero and asset purchases at the current pace of $120 billion per month.

"The economy is a long way from our employment and inflation goals, and it is likely to take some time for substantial further progress to be achieved," Powell said. "We will continue to clearly communicate our assessment of progress toward our goals well in advance of any change in the pace of purchases."

Optimism over another round of fiscal stimulus – in addition to ongoing monetary support – to help the economy has helped boost shares of companies levered to a strong economic reopening. The U.S. House of Representatives Budget Committee voted to advance President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion virus relief proposal on Monday, bringing it a step closer to passage ahead of a mid-March cliff, after which federal unemployment benefits improved under the last round of relief in December are set to expire.

Still, investors this week have been eyeing a sharp move higher in Treasury yields, raising concerns of an unbridled surge in rates and borrowing costs for companies and inflationary pressure across the economy. The benchmark 10-year yield hovered around 1.36% for its highest level in a year, after wallowing below 1% for most of 2020.

That said, rising government bond yields and a steepening yield curve — with longer-dated yields increasing faster than those on the shorter-end of the curve — are also typical features of an economic recovery.

"I think the push up in bond yields is overdue because we have the prospect of very strong economic growth in the U.S. You have seen other indicators of economic activity be very strong, for example commodities have been on a real tear since last summer. Bond yields are reflecting stronger economic growth,” Ernesto Ramos, chief investment officer of BMO Global Asset Management, told Yahoo Finance on Monday.

“The consensus is estimating maybe 6-7% [GDP] growth for 2021. You see the rollout of the vaccine improving a lot and really starting to hit and make a difference. So a lot of signs of reopening are there, and the economic growth will reflect that and therefore bond yields have to reflect stronger economic growth, and that’s why they’ve moved up," he added. "They’ve moved up pretty quickly, but they really started moving up since July from 60 basis points all the way up to where we are today at 135."

Still, however, that hasn't eased some investors' concerns of a higher-rate environment.

"We're coming off a very strong 3-month run for U.S. stocks ... and will now face the less-welcomed headlines of a typical economic recovery. This includes rising long-term interest rates and oil prices," DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas wrote in a recent note. "Yes, it's entirely natural to see these move higher but that doesn't mean stocks get a free pass while they do.""

MY COMMENT

YES.....nice to see and hear some reality from Powell today. The consensus for 2021......if you trust it....continues to increase and increase.

 

TOMORROW.......NVDA earnings......one of the big ones that many have been waiting for. They will report after the bell tomorrow.

 

Here is a little article for those that are interested in the housing markets.

S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Reports 10.4% Annual Home Price Gain To End 2020

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-rel...l-home-price-gain-to-end-2020--301233707.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

""NEW YORK, Feb. 23, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today releases the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for December 2020 show that home prices continue to increase across the U.S. More than 27 years of history are available for the data series, and can be accessed in full by going to https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/.

Please note that transaction records for October 2020 and November 2020 for Wayne County, MI, are now available. Due to delays at the local recording office caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, S&P DJI and CoreLogic were previously unable to generate valid October 2020 and November 2020 updates for the Detroit S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices.

However, there are still an insufficient number of records from Wayne County for December 2020. Since Wayne County is the most populous county in the Detroit metro area, S&P DJI and CoreLogic are unable to generate a valid Detroit index value for December 2020. When the sale transactions data fully resumes, and sufficient data is collected, the Detroit index values for the month(s) with missing updates will be calculated.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 10.4% annual gain in December, up from 9.5% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 9.8%, up from 8.9% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 10.1% year-over-year gain, up from 9.2% in the previous month.

Phoenix, Seattle, and San Diego continued to report the highest year-over-year gains among the 19 cities (excluding Detroit) in December. Phoenix led the way with a 14.4% year-over-year price increase, followed by Seattle with a 13.6% increase and San Diego with a 13.0% increase. Eighteen of the 19 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending December 2020 versus the year ending November 2020.

MONTH-OVER-MONTH

Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a 0.9% month-over-month increase, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 0.9% and 0.8% respectively in December. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 1.3%, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 1.2% and 1.3% respectively. In December, 18 cities (excluding Detroit) reported increases before seasonal adjustment, while all 19 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.

ANALYSIS

"Home prices finished 2020 with double-digit gains, as the National Composite Index rose by 10.4% compared to year-ago levels," says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Investment Strategy at S&P DJI. "The trend of accelerating prices that began in June 2020 has now reached its seventh month and is also reflected in the 10- and 20-City Composites (up 9.8% and 10.1%, respectively). The market's strength continues to be broadly-based: 18 of the 19 cities for which we have December data rose, and 18 cities gained more in the 12 months ended in December than they had gained in the 12 months ended in November.

"As COVID-related restrictions began to grip the economy in early 2020, their effect on housing prices was unclear. Price growth decelerated in May and June, and then began a steady climb upward, and December's report continues that acceleration in an emphatic manner. 2020's 10.4% gain marks the best performance of housing prices in a calendar year since 2013. From the perspective of more than 30 years of S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller data, December's year-over-year change ranks within the top decile of all reports.

"These data are consistent with the view that COVID has encouraged potential buyers to move from urban apartments to suburban homes. This may indicate a secular shift in housing demand, or may simply represent an acceleration of moves that would have taken place over the next several years anyway. Future data will be required to address that question.

"Phoenix's 14.4% increase led all cities for the 19th consecutive month, with Seattle (+13.6%) and San Diego (+13.0%) close behind. Prices were strongest in the West (+10.8%) and Southwest (+10.5%), but gains were impressive in every region."

SUPPORTING DATA

Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs."

MY COMMENT

SEE the actual article via the link to see the charts and data for all 20 cities. From what many areas are seeing.....so far....this year we are in a continuation....actually an increase......of this housing BOOM. NATIONAL one year housing price change +10.4%. Good news for current owners in most areas. Bad news for those shopping for a first home.