The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    For those worried about the Ten year Treasury yield......YES.....STILL at historic lows. ACTUALLY....if you look at a chart....investors did pretty well over the past decades investing during time periods with SIGNIFICANTLY higher Ten Year yields.

    The current MEDIA OBSESSION with this yield is.......yes......INSANITY.........and illustrates the normal....current.....total lack of historical perspective. BUT.....in the present era of ALL HISTORY being irrelevant and erased.....I guess they have a point. Unfortunately....as an investor....it is helpful to have some appreciation of and concept of HISTORY.


    [​IMG]
     
    #4421 WXYZ, Mar 12, 2021
    Last edited: Mar 12, 2021
  2. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    I still don’t buy the rotation out of growth pitch. Eventually there may be some sort of balance (eventually, as in- not now) IF life goes back to pre-covid normalcy, which doesn’t seem like it ever will..... the big push towards technology, the green new deal, the big reset- there’s a new standard for “normalcy” and it ain’t what it used to be.
    I can’t see companies like PayPal, NVDIA, NOW, APPL, AMZN getting new lower evaluations as a collective... I do see how spacs and “trend stocks” getting wiped out and getting thrown into the basket of inflation category- some already have.
    That’s been the same argument with the collectible market, for years we’ve been hearing about a market crash and inflated prices with cards, books etc.... the big crash they are referring to is the early 90s crash, where print runs of collectibles were up in the millions and prices went up significantly high.
    When I hear someone tell me “oh that book is over inflated” I laugh and thank GOD that 99% of the industry is drinking the INFLATION HYPE koolaid. And I see stark parallels btw the collectible market and the stock market- there are silly books that get super inflated price that shouldn’t have been there to begin with- those will crash and burn, and there are GROWTH books that have established their role in the market and are now up there with the major players. These new players are the Nasdaq of the stock market. Invest in them and you’ll see your return come back quicker and higher. Invest in the old golden age books and hold a more secure investment but with not a quick and high return- both are great but if you like making money like I do you’d stick with growth and speed. Or hey, nothing wrong with doing both if you have the capital!
    Great day today, I’m clearly in the red, but I wasn’t expecting a quick recovery from such a monumental correction (well not as bad a correction as the grand daddy’s of corrections but still....), one more week of back and forth and we’ll see where this is taking us- higher or lower, in my opinion the next week will tell us where this year is going in relation to “inflation”
     
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  3. oldmanram

    oldmanram Well-Known Member

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    Don't have much to say , giving back about 1/3 of yesterdays gains, but was expecting that ,
    I found one bright button on my screen, compare your one year growth !!
    Last year ago this date , it does make today seem a lot better.
    Ow and another reason I prefer ETF's over Mutual Funds , they execute immediately, instead of at the end of the day.
    Sold some this morning and forgot that I have to wait to get the funds ARG!
    Looks like I'll be buying Monday morning
    Have a good weekend
     
  4. gtrudeau88

    gtrudeau88 Well-Known Member

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    I gave back most of the gains from NVAX of last night but still ahead a little. Have a good weekend all. I'll be buying on Monday as well most likely since my funds from yesterday's ABBV sale will be settled.

    Update: should add that most positions stayed relatively flat. NVAX is up around 7% (down from 20%+ pre-session), TRTN, KLIC, and QTS-A down 1.1% to 1.7%. Other gains or losses less than .5%.
     
    #4424 gtrudeau88, Mar 12, 2021
    Last edited: Mar 12, 2021
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  5. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    Another thing regarding evaluations. How are VALUE companies looking nowadays in comparison to last year? I’m talking about Dis, JPM, PG? Theyre doing AMAZINGLY WELL. Do you wanna know what EVERYONE predicted will happen to them at exactly this time last year? The covid correction predicted that EVERYTHING was inflated and Covid will correct their value and crush the others. I’m talking about BA and the airline/cruise line industry.... Poor Boeing... they went from worse to worst even before covid knocked on the airline industry doors. Look at them now! We’re still not out of the woods, and Boeing is still struggling with operating 100% yet we see even the airline industry getting back on track.
    And that was some serious correction last year... those value companies lost up to 80% value... it’s hard to think that they were ever gonna come back exactly a year ago. I mean look at a company like Macy’s... MACYS!! Hard to even think that theyre still in business after several years of decline... they are currently HIGHER than the pre-covid collapse.
    So am I worried about inflation and PayPal? Or Nvidia? & Amazon, Apple... Heck even Zoom looks better than Boeing with valuation. And Zoom is probably the king of overvalued investments that covid has produced.
    No no no... thank you, I will take my “chances” with inflation and a bubble bursting with Nasdaq now or any time of year
     
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  6. gtrudeau88

    gtrudeau88 Well-Known Member

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    I'm staying away from Nasdaq. Will be doing some buying on Monday and am likely staying with stuff on the DJIA. I may consider the JETS etf since I think airline stocks will be getting stronger. I may also look at expanding existing positions. No idea but I want to let my investing brain rest for a couple of days.
     
  7. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Just a heads up, NVAX is in the Nasdaq
     
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  8. Rustic1

    Rustic1 Well-Known Member

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    NVAX is a BIOTECH and not a good longterm hold.
    Pulling the lifetime chart clearly shows.

    Just my 2 cents.
     
  9. The Ragin Cajun

    The Ragin Cajun Active Member

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    Any tips on book collecting are appreciated! I started collecting mostly leather bound and old civil war/history type books a few years ago. I really don't do it for the monetary value, but mostly because It's a reading/knowledge obsession and I also think many of these books won't be available or at least very hard to find at some point since everything is going digital. I also love the look of an Easton Press/leather bound or old hardcover library. What kind of books do you collect? Where do you find most of the books you are interested in? One of the coolest things I have ever seen was Thomas Jefferson's book collection when it was displayed at the Library of Congress.

    I can definitely see the similarities with stocks.
     
  10. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    WELL.....I dont collect books....much. I do collect art books for my area of Impressionistic art. Many are out of print and sell in the $150 to $800 range. Here is what I look for:

    First Editions

    The BEST possible dust jacket if the book had one.

    The BEST condition if it is affordable.

    No marks or writing or other impairment of the front flaps or the pages.

    Buy the single BEST example you can afford.....quality is KING.

    A plate from a famous collection or person inside the front cover is often a good thing.....if it is not a fake.

    I have learned that the KISS OF DEATH in book collecting is former LIBRARY books. They always have various numbers and stamps on them that indicate that they are a former Library book. Collectors DO NOT want former library books no matter the condition.....it DRASTICALLY reduces the value.
     
    #4430 WXYZ, Mar 12, 2021
    Last edited: Mar 12, 2021
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  11. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    Hey Ragin! I actually referred to comic books when saying books, kind of a collectors slang if you will, sorry for the confusion there :)
    Sounds like a nice collection you have there btw
     
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  12. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    I do own 10 copies of Madonna’s Sex book from 92... I buy them every time I see them cheap on eBay.. the cheapest I found them for is $30 you can move them on Amazon for 300-400$ if in Like New condition... which is what I usually get for them. There’s a whole “retail arbitrage” strategy between (usually) ebay and Amazon. The study suggests that eBay buyers are different than Amazon’s and NORMALLY Amazon buyers will pay a premium as opposed to eBay’s. That Madonna book is a classic example of that.
    celebrity “cult” books are great investments, and they likely appreciate by LARGE margins once a celebrity reaches a milestone such as a commemoration or death
     
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  13. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    A RELATIVELY good day today for me. Minimal RED......but still a moral victory with the way that the SP500 ended positive and the NASDAQ made a good come-back.

    DOW year to date +7.10%
    DOW for the week +4.07%

    SP500 year to date +4.99%
    SP500 for the week +2.64%

    NASDAQ 100 year to date +0.38%
    NASDAQ 100 for the week +2.12%

    NSADAQ year to date +3.35%
    NASDAQ for the week +3.09%

    RUSSELL 2000 year to date +19.32%
    RUSSELL 2000 for the week +7.32%

    A nice BIG week for ALL the averages this week. A great reprieve from the little correction. Time to rest up for the open on Monday when we will get to do it all over again.
     
  14. The Ragin Cajun

    The Ragin Cajun Active Member

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    haha, damn you got me excited there for a bit Zuk! Comics are cool, but I never got into collecting them. I remember reading GI Joe, Archie, spy vs spy and some marvel ones as a kid. I think they are great to get kids hooked on reading.
     
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  15. The Ragin Cajun

    The Ragin Cajun Active Member

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    WXYZ dropping knowledge as usual. I pretty much look for the same stuff as you mentioned, definitely never library copies. I recently learned not to put your own bookplates on your copies as it reduces the value. Many of the older books I've purchased have previous owners bookplates, personally I think it's cool to see who owned the book at one time even if it may reduce the value. I used to find a lot of real hidden gems browsing the half price book stores, especially in the leather bound section as young workers would never correctly price them. Unfortunately that chain didn't make it to where I currently live, but I know they are everywhere in Texas.
     
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  16. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    AND....for the LADIES on the board......yes.....you are often superior to the men when it comes to investing.

    Why women investors outperform men in the long run: trader

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-...orm-men-in-the-long-run-trader-205931074.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "When it comes to investing, women tend to outperform men over time, according to several studies.

    "We're wired differently. Women have strong activity in planning and self-control. I think that lends themselves to be better traders," says Kathy Donnelly, proprietary trader and co-author of "The Lifecycle Trade."

    Donnelly cites a 2017 Fidelity Investments study that concluded women earn higher returns than men when investing — to the tune of 40 basis points, or 0.4% — and that women save more. Over time, these small differences add up, notes Fidelity.

    Of the findings, Donnelly says, "[The study] basically tied to trading less, saving more and willing to learn — I think that fits me to a T."

    A separate study in the U.K. found that men outperform the country's benchmark FTSE 100 (^FTSE) index by 0.14%, but women tend to beat it by 1.94% — a difference of 1.8 percentage points. Warwick Business School conducted the study with the assistance of Barclays and found that men trade more often than women — 13 times per year versus nine times over the same period.

    The Warwick study also found men are more likely to take profits on winning trades while holding onto the losers — concluding that female investors tend to avoid "lottery style" speculation. Men are more likely to buy lower-priced shares, which helps explain the modern meme stock phenomenon. Many of the targeted stocks like GameStop (GME) and AMC Entertainment (AMC) are considered to be penny stocks (or at least they used to be when they traded at lower prices).

    A Nasdaq report adds: "Generally speaking, women are more patient and allow their investments to grow. This is important because frequently trading and acting on short term fluctuations cultivate negative outcomes. In this regard, men could borrow a page from women."

    Trading in stocks has historically been male-dominated, but there are signs that cryptocurrencies are helping to disrupt that hegemony. Robinhood recently reported that among its customers, the number of female crypto traders has grown seven-fold this year — with 40% of their active women customers trading in crypto assets, such as bitcoin (BTC-USD), ethereum (ETH-USD) and dogecoin (DOGE-USD). “These figures are encouraging and prove that crypto can be a powerful tool in decentralizing power in finance," Robinhood says.

    Donnelly wraps it all up, saying, "It’s all in the brain: Men are on a mission, women are on a journey.""

    MY COMMENT

    TOTALLY AGREE. We see all the young guy traders exercising very risky behavior recently. We also see the....guys.....out there being the ones fighting and arguing on message boards. You rarely see a female doing the same...at least on the investing forums.
     
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  17. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Yeah Ragin Cajun.

    I have tried to find ALL the various books, catalogs, and various memorabilia for the type of Impressionistic art that I collect. Many of them are not even that old. I loaned a painting to a major exhibition for one artist about 6 years ago. The museum produced a full book for the exhibition. I bought one for $39 when I attended and they gave me one for being a lender to the exhibition. Within a year after the exhibition that book was selling for $500 to $800. The reason....they only printed a run of 500 copies for the exhibition and it immediately went out of print. I see that a lot of times with the art books that I buy....very small runs of 500 to 1000 or less.

    Even some small pamphlets and exhibition catalogs and other non-book publications can run in the same range because they are extremely limited and therefore rare.

    I had one book that I was trying to find for over 5 years. I had a saved search on eBay, I would check all the used book sites regularly....I could never find that book. It was a run of 500 on the life of one of the artists that I collect. After 5+ years I finally had one turn up in my usual weekly search. AND.....it just happened to be a antique/rare book seller in my city.....I paid full market for it....$600....it was in very fine if not MINT condition. I read through it once and put it on the bookshelf.
     
    #4437 WXYZ, Mar 12, 2021
    Last edited: Mar 12, 2021
  18. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    Yes, I read them growing up. Now I collect and invest in them... Look at a comic like Ultimate Fallout #4 - that is a modern comic book from 2011. Up till 5 years ago it was a dollar bin find I kid you not... today it is selling for $3000+ When in grade.... crazy market... and that’s with a common modern book. You can’t make this stuff up! That’s what I was mentioning earlier as a “nasdaq” growth stock. It has reached a point where it is traded at a fast acceleration and adding value on pace with its growth. I like to be in the “ultimate fallout” business so I look for similar growth with popular stocks, study their business and look at their charts.
    But again, I’m new to this here so I DONT bite more than I can chew. If my progress with the stock market parallels the one with the collectible market I will naturally gain more confidence with my purchases. Just like I did when I got to into collectibles stuff. Slow and steady
     
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  19. gtrudeau88

    gtrudeau88 Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, I just meant that I'm largely staying away from most tech. There are exceptions for companies that I think can benefit from coming out of covid. Novavax does well if its vaccine gets approved.
     
  20. andyvds

    andyvds Active Member

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    You might have a look at this stock market channel on Youtube. Nice chart analytics and info about stock, gold, bonds in their own perspective. Look at the short time risks for large tech caps. (at 20:00) But I see good april and mai perspective for small-mid cap growth stock.

     
    #4440 andyvds, Mar 13, 2021
    Last edited: Mar 13, 2021

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