Dump portfolio and invest all in S&P500 dip?

Discussion in 'Ask any question!' started by IPFRLY, Mar 19, 2021.

  1. IPFRLY

    IPFRLY New Member

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    Hi,

    I decided to get into trading again, very modest to start out. It seems I started at the peak of the Stegosaurus back, trying to buy on the lows of the highs (stegosaurus plates if you are following). Now I am a bag holder of multiple EV, Tech, Pot, and PLTR. PLTR being the latest buy at 23.70.

    My question, should I dump, take 25% loss and invest in the S&P500? Or hold bags, and invest in the S&P500? Third option dump all and get in on the latest and greatest pump,and dump?

    Thanks for any advice
     
  2. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Theres definitely some rotation going on, TSLA $900 was the peak of the EV hype for now. Weed stocks, PLTR... all had their move.

    Buying into the SPY now really depends on what you are trying to achieve. Its going to give you some great diversification, but dont expect big 40% gains any time soon.

    If selling everything lets you sleep at night, do that. Don't feel that you need to chase this market, there are always pull backs!
     
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  3. IPFRLY

    IPFRLY New Member

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    Thanks for the reply. A couple months ago, the stocks I chose looked perfect...have not been in long enough to know if they will come back.

    Ideally I make any money in this market...
     
  4. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    I would have suggested you look at the banking sector, but after the run they had over the past few weeks, Im hesitant on that.
     
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  5. Rustic1

    Rustic1 Well-Known Member

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    PLTR dont know your share structure, cost basis, or percentage of your account. Longterm this has potential. "IMO" It is a direct listing and the early investors "creators" Peter Theil has a solid reputation. If you can stand some downtime, you might decide to hold.
    Hard for me to give advise as I'm just a stranger on the clouds. I took a position awhile back, felt downside pressure was inbound and got out.

    I will be watching for re-entry as a longterm position, as of now it stays out of my range.

    Just my opinion, do some research on it and go from there.

    I dont fool with weed stocks. The others without knowing the tickers can't say.
     
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  6. spindr0

    spindr0 Active Member

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    If you believe that a stock has the ability to recover in the near future, if it offers options, you can do a Repair Strategy which will allow you to break even at a lower price than your cost.

    A Repair combines a vertical spread and a covered call per 100 shares owned. The objective is to do it for the nearest expiration at no cost (the higher strike should be at least 1/2 the cost of the lower strike). Effectively, the Repair is a 1x2 ratio spread per 100 shares (buy one call at a lower strike and sell 2 calls at a higher strike. All short calls are covered.

    If the underlying drops, a no cost Repair adds nothing to your losses. If it rises, between the two strikes you'll make $2 for every dollar the underlying rises.

    Using today's closing prices. PLTR is $24.32. Suppose you bought it at $31. As an example, if you buy one 4/16 $25 call for $1.70 and you sell two 4/16 $28 calls for $0.85, the Repair costs nothing. If PLTR is above $28 at expiration, you'll net $31 which is your break even.

    Scan the various expirations to see what strike price offer free 1x2 ratio spreads to see if one suits you.

    Note that the higher the implied volatility, the higher the net credit you'll receive and the easier it is to find a Repair that breaks even at a lower price.

    A Repair can be used with a brand new position as well.
     
    #6 spindr0, Mar 19, 2021
    Last edited: Mar 21, 2021
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  7. Dave Kraayeveld

    Dave Kraayeveld Active Member

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    First of all your asking a good question. I am assuming it is based on the current situation. On Black Monday 1987 people were asking the same question. So the question is good, the answers are multiple choice. So for a man over 65 like me, I would ask you. How much longer before you will be able to look back at the decision you are about to make and realize it was just a small part in your personal experience.. If it is ten years, the chance will be these times will evaporate into memories. Hopefully someone says something that makes you think before you act. Have a good day.
     
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  8. Syynik

    Syynik Well-Known Member

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    My only weed stock is CRON because ALTRIA has a hand in them. It's my only longterm pot stock.
     
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  9. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I believe you are asking: Trading or investing?

    Long term investing has out performed long term trading since the beginning of time. Everyone thinks they will be the one to discover perpetual motion and everyone end up having their hearts broken.

    In a rising market, traders will make money but it's pretty rare they make more than the S&P 500.

    The S&P 500 gained 29% in 2019 and 16.25% in 2020.


    Full disclosure: My gains obliterate the S%P 500, so far this year. This is due to a couple of companies that have been rocket rides and one company being bought out at a nice premium. In other words, short term luck. There are all sorts of stories of momentary gains that out strip the S&P but, long term, I have no expectation of beating the index and plan to slowly convert my portfolio into an index portfolio over the next several years. Also, I have no intention of spending the rest of my life looking at my screens for signals.
     
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  10. spindr0

    spindr0 Active Member

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    Yes, long term investing has out performed long term trading since the beginning of time. And yet, a blind squirrel who trades, occasionally finds the golden acorn.

    In 2008, I obliterated those who owned the SPY and reinvested their dividends for the next 9 years (2008 through 2016). And for the record, it wasn't an account that started the year with less than 6 figures. 2009 was more of the same but to a lesser degree.

    And despite that, buy and holders from 2008 to 2021 outperformed me since 2008 because in recent years I have primarily sought income with modest growth since I'm long since retired.
     
    #10 spindr0, Mar 20, 2021
    Last edited: Mar 20, 2021
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  11. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Interesting. I'm pleased to meet you, spindr0.

    We have been increasing our REIT ratio since 2011 when we started to first think about retire. They pay wonderfully but a well run REIT is a company that will soon be bought out.

    There are a number of companies I would buy but this is not a great time for value investing. It's tough to find something at a decent price versus it's intrinsic value.

    Do you have any advice for someone who is only a couple of steps behind you?
     
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  12. spindr0

    spindr0 Active Member

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    Likewise, pleased to meet you.

    I don't offer investment advice because each person's situation is different (age, income, amount of savings, risk tolerance, pension (?), etc.). I lean towards sharing acquired financial knowledge and experience.

    For me, after investing for 20 years, I added trading for another 20 years (yep, I was all-in in 1987). My trading years have always been geared to managing the downside with winning being gravy (risk management !!).

    Normally, I'd recommend preferred stocks as a reliable income source. When there's an interest rate cycle, they offer the ability to swap for cap gains as well, bumping up the yield. Unfortunately, rates are low which means that most preferreds with a decent coupon are over par and either callable or near call. And quality new issues are now down in the 4+ pct area. But it's worth being aware of because occasionally, they get whacked (2008, the 2016 election, the inverted yield curve fears of 2018, and last March). All were great opportunities to pick up quality at a higher yield and flip for 2-3x the coupon rate.

    I also do a lot of hedging with options but that's an acquired taste :->).
     
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  13. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for the response.

    I wasn't looking for direct investment advice as much as perhaps something I have no thought of, like losing interest in portfolio management, or whatever. It sounds like your interest in investing has not gone down at all.

    It seems likely my investing acuity will go down over time, so I plan to move from my present approach to index investing over the course of the next decade, or so.

    Either way, I'm delighted for your retirement. Best wishes to you and Mrs. spindr0.
     
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  14. andyvds

    andyvds Active Member

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    For some people the S&P500 might be perfect. Invest once or monthly and see the index grow slowly - almost - every year.

    Blackrock or Berkshire Hathaway may also be solid and give you better sleep at night. Investing in individual stock might to not be the right thing for you.

    That's nothing bad.
     
  15. spindr0

    spindr0 Active Member

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    Your request for "advice for someone who is only a couple of steps behind you" was non specific so I could only guess at what advice you were seeking.

    I can attest to investing acuity going down over time. My ability to manage multiple positions during volatile times has slowly diminished over the years. I can still do it but the level of multitasking isn't what it used to be. "A man has got to know his limitations" ~ Dirty Harry.

    I've considered portfolio management a few times but apart from the fees, what troubled me the most was their poor record during market downturns. 1-2% off the top isn't the end of the world but if you can't protect me from the carnage (2000, 2008, last March), what do I need you for? So I have never jumped that broom.

    Best wishes.
     
  16. Rustic1

    Rustic1 Well-Known Member

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    BLACKROCK has some excellent choices, well worth looking into. I held a few of the CEFs :cool2:

    GLADSTONE has a few.

    I always liked the monthly dividends, even if they were enrolled in the DRIP plan.
     
  17. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    In my opinion, the best thing about DRIP is that next month you will make more money than you made this month. Your net worth grows along with your monthly income.

    If times ever get really tight, you can always turn off the DRIP and live on the dividends. The caveat to this is that corporate DRIPs are a pain to enrol in. When the WBI started burning out of control, I turned off our synthetic drips but left our corporate DRIPs in place due to administrative overhead.
     
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  18. Rustic1

    Rustic1 Well-Known Member

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    Spindr0 has a great thread for anyone that wants to employ options for extra income or hedging. Worth checking out, he can help point someone in the right direction. :cool2:
     
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  19. spindr0

    spindr0 Active Member

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    This always stirs the hornet's nest but though dividends are taxable if received in a non sheltered account, they provide zero total return. They become true income if share price recovers to the close of the day before ex-dividend.
     
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  20. IPFRLY

    IPFRLY New Member

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    I did TLRY, SNDL, CRLBF
     

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