The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. Rustic1

    Rustic1 Well-Known Member

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    Your wish is coming true. Some don't mind being upside down,, obviously the newer investors are now deep in the red.. I prefer the green side, no commitments, no worries, come and go as I please.
    We all have our own ways.
    VOO is a great fund, getting cheaper by the day, lots of good stocks are looking better everyday. Some are more patient and refuse to buy at the top. We can observe the overall metrics of the markets that help us TIME better entry levels.
     
  2. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    There is always a silver lining....that represents FUTURE MONEY.....in any short term event. As a COSTCO shareholder here is one such example.

    Why Costco is secretly a winner from Colonial Pipeline shutdown fueled gas lines

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-...line-shutdown-fueled-gas-lines-143108733.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Costco (COST) could be on pace to have a big month of sales for May as its members along the East Coast hoard gas following the shutdown of the Colonial Pipeline due to a ransomware cyberattack.

    The warehouse giant is one of the country's largest gasoline distributors, often under cutting competing gas stations on price to net a sale from its members (who are the only ones allowed to buy gas at Costco). Yahoo Finance analysis finds that Costco operates gas stations at about 88% of its 559 U.S. warehouses. Our analysis reveals roughly 21% of those gas stations are situated along the East Coast where the gas shortages because of the hacking incident have been the most pronounced.

    The largest East Coast market for Costco's gas business is Florida with 27 stations, Yahoo Finance's analysis shows.

    Costco's financial statements are likely winning amid the gas shortage for several reasons.

    First, Costco is selling higher priced petrol due to limited supplies which has the effect of lifting sales and profits. And two, Costco members are probably stocking up on food and other merchandise when they go and purchase gas out of fear of running out of petrol within days.

    An argument could be made that Costco has already benefited greatly from rising gas prices this spring that has brought the nationwide average to over $3.00 a gallon.

    Costco shocked investors on May 5 with a blowout April sales report. Factoring in gasoline sales (and the higher prices), Costco's U.S. same-store sales surged 30.4% in the month. Excluding sales at its gas stations, same-store sales still spiked in April to the tune of 24.9%.

    Shares of Costco have outperformed the broader market in the aftermath of the sales release — shares are up 2% month to date versus a 1% drop for the S&P 500.

    "Own the king. March and April's performance clearly prove the many reasons to own Costco," JPMorgan analyst Christopher Horvers said.

    Added Horvers, "As 2021 progresses, whether the consumer is eating more at home or feeling good enough to engage in the treasury hunt atmosphere of its 140K s.f. box (or use its attractive travel options), we see COST as a share gainer. Moreover, no other retailers metered traffic in its stores like Costco (see April 2020’s flat comp despite massive stimulus last year and we even had to wait in line this January). Costco also has ballasts in its assortment that are pro-reopening (e.g.,discretionary mix, e-commerce business, travel, gas, and food court). Combined, we believe this suggests the tough laps aren’t as hard as they look, especially in light of record high consumer savings. "

    MY COMMENT

    There are always winners and losers. I HATE to see that gas pipeline shut down by hackers. GEE......I guess we really do need pipelines. BUT.....this represents a nice little BLIP for company fundamentals for Costco over the short term. As a shareholder I will take what I can get.
     
  3. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    I guess the only thing to take from all of this is that there are no rules with investing.
    I could never see myself selling Tesla because of the same fundamental reasons that got me to buy it at the outset. And that’s the belief in the product.
    My long term insight comes to 2 things as I said before - patience and confidence. Anything else is just tricks of the trade. But you cannot WIN with cosmetics. You can only WIN with a formula. And that’s mine.
    Everything that you said about Tesla is absolutely correct, it has so much under its umbrella and it’s SOOO far ahead of the competition, and its leader has now turned to a giant.
    When you think of it, Musk is an integral part of the resurgence in stocks last year. It was the pandemic that got idiots like septic1 into the stock market and crypto from the gamble perspective, but it was Musk that got investors as young as me into investing in companies. And I’m thankful it did.
    But had I been in your shoes W, and those boots have walked many many miles as we can see, I probably would’ve acted like you. Keep it conservative, collect your profits and stay with your long term wins. Sure, makes sense.
    I am hopeful that in 20-30 years time I can write about how everything started for me with Tesla and if we’re all still alive till then maybe even see how far that company had grown.
    In my mind it would be the Apple of the future, remember Apple used to be a “computer” only company, and for MANY years at that. it then morphed into a music empire, a phone company, a watch & tablet maker all backed up by state of the art software, apparel and GENUIS marketing.
    If I didn’t have that concept in mind I would’ve sold ALL of my Tesla shares when I did late last year when I did a portion of it. But I really really can’t see how it would not grow to be that.
    but oh well, anything and everything can change
     
  4. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Here is a question for the investors in this thread.

    If we prefer companies to cash and if we are looking for the best deals on those companies (ie: lower prices), why do we care about our net worth?

    Every one of us has an approximation of our net worth and yet we would rather have a good deal on a company we like than a soaring valuation that drives our net worth to new highs.

    Any thoughts?
     
  5. Rustic1

    Rustic1 Well-Known Member

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    :rofl::rofl:
    We keep setting new highs.:D I enjoy letting you trip over your own words. :cool2:

    Screenshot_20210512-100137_Chrome.jpg
     
  6. Rustic1

    Rustic1 Well-Known Member

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    :popcorn::D
     
  7. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Deep in the red?

    The S&P 500 is down 3.14% from the 52 week high. If this is "deep in the red", what would you consider a 60% drop from peak? Is that when you go to your fallout shelter?

    The market corrects by 10%, or more, every 18 months, on average. Do you have a strategy to deal with this?
     
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  8. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    This is not a direct comment to ruskie 1’s comment. His head it to big to understand it. But I do believe that the average INVESTOR in this group understands that bragging about what’s hot today - TODAY - is an idiot’s way of demonstrating to others what a LONG TERM VISION looks like
     
  9. Rustic1

    Rustic1 Well-Known Member

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    There ya go, ole buddy. :D VOO is looking better by the minute, just puked up over a months gains. :lauging:

    Love how the longs make up excuses on the red days. :D
    Buy the top,watch it drop and cheer like little girls.:rofl:
    This place is more fun than watching the 3 stooges.:cool2:


    Screenshot_20210512-112123_Chrome.jpg
     
  10. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    Had a conversation with an investor friend of mine of many years today and he told me something that stuck real big with me.
    The topic of “buying the dip” surfaced and I mentioned that the big problem with that is that there’s so much volatility going on that investors often confuse a dip with good old fashioned volatility.
    He said this: most likely than not- when you feel compelled to buy the dip - it’s volatility.
    But when you feel compelled to SELL- it’s a true bottom or pretty darn close to it - which makes it an actual dip
     
  11. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    With respect I think deep in the red is his favorite pornhub channel, so I can see why he may have lost track of where he’s posting. Happens to the best
     
  12. Rustic1

    Rustic1 Well-Known Member

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    Fond of Asian women, hear they are very loyal. Older men like me make better lovers
    Send a few pics of Mrs Zack, we may be able to arrange a hit n run. :D


    On a more serious note,
    TSLA fans may see this as a good buy opportunity, the China issue is priced in. :cool2:

    Screenshot_20210512-114239_Chrome.jpg
     
  13. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    Unfortunately the Asian girls I can hook you with are not fund of your short term insight nor your short term sexual abilities
     
  14. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    You know you gotta worry about septic1 when he’s not posting his dumb :rofl: emojis. question - is excessive emoji posting a mature form of expression now? Last I checked back in the 90s it was more of a girl thing... damn times changed quick
    What is he gonna do next... wrap his posts with xoxoxox
     
  15. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Excuses? For what? We don't report to anyone.

    I make about one major move per year. There have been years I haven't done anything (as long as you don't consider DRIP to be activity).

    The value of my portfolio goes up and down but there really is no result or consequence, other than a somewhat arbitrary indication of how I'm doing.

    Last week, we had a really big day. Our portfolio went up a lot. Three days later, it was roughly back to before the peak. That fluctuation is noise to me. Someone bought into my biggest holding and there was a temporary glitch in our net worth. Who cares?

    I will say this: When someone tells me their investing performance is far better than mine, and I am told this with surprising frequency, I don't say much but there is no chance of this being the case.

    Very few people do better than me. Some perform similar. Legions of people do far worse than I do.

    So, who are my peers? It's the people who are basically doing nothing. Either small portfolio holders or long term indexers who do not rebalance. Simple, passive, investors. In other words, people in this thread.

    I've also followed the idea of creating a derived index with specific companies removed. It might be the S&P 500 with some companies removed. It is a way to make money from negative knowledge of companies without shorting them. This appears to be a good technique with excellent chance of success but does require a certain portfolio size to keep the inefficiency of small holdings from impacting too heavily.

    Who has done better than I have done? People who own a single company: Bill Gates, Elon Musk, Jeff Bazos. These people put their chips on one number, spun the roulette wheel, and came up a winner. I look at these people like lottery winners. Good for them but their success isn't something you can plan to achieve.

    My take on these thoughts: If you want to be in the top tier of investors, be boring. Join this thread. Chat about whatever you like to pass the time. Embrace anything that helps you resist the urge to respond to news or market fluctuations. Sleep well, comfortable in the knowledge that your modest, realistic, and credible expectations will be met with near certainty.
     
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  16. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    ANYWAY.......I use net worth as a total financial measure. Since it encompasses ALL assets....house, markets, investments, collectables, any type of investment.....I consider it a measure of how I am doing over time. It.....like many financial measures....does not mean much short term....but it is nice to see a gradual gain.
     
  17. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    :rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:
    :cool2::cool2::cool2::cool2::cool2:

    Xoxoxoxo
    Rustic 1
     
  18. roadtonowhere08

    roadtonowhere08 Well-Known Member

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    Outstanding post! I agree with every word. When you have empirical evidence on your side, the detractors just have... hot air and posturing.

    I am strongly considering just going 50% VOO and 50% QQQ and calling it a day.
     
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  19. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I think I will keep ranting... lol! :biggrin:

    While I don't believe people who explain how much better than have done than I have, because they don't even know how well I've done, I also don't go around telling people how amazing I am. I'm acutely aware that someone who purchased VOO 20 years ago and then slipped into a coma has done the same as I have done.

    My performance is nothing particularly special and nothing to emulate. I share my thoughts and ideas as an homage to the community, not as a way to get rich quickly.

    And yet, communities like this feel the need to declare someone the supreme leader. There seems to be an instinctual need for alpha leadership. In my opinion, that is pure bullshit that is a burden on the human condition.

    Suffice to say, I ignore that stuff. I just do it how I do it and I am sincerely happy for anyone else's success; that includes traders.

    So, best wishes rustic1. I hope you are pleased with your portfolio's performance. :cool2:
     
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  20. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    More rant....

    Jack (John C.) Bogle talked quite a bit about return to mean (RTM). The idea is that you can under or over perform the market but, over time, your performance will return to the mean average.

    This is why I don't brag about our Tesla transaction. We made a ton of money and I could point to some pretty amazing gains but that would be disingenuous. As the years roll on, our performance will RTM.

    In fact, our portfolio is designed to under-perform the S&P 500. I'm not joking. REITs and utilities are not going to compete with growth companies for total return during boom times, like now.

    There are two reasons we have kept up with the S&P500. First, Tesla. Second, our REITs have a habit of being purchased by Blackstone at a 15% premium. This has kept us right around the S&P500 level of return for the last 15 years, despite our portfolio being ultra conservative (with the exception of Tesla).

    Next year, the odds are we will under-perform the S&P500 and I'm OK with that.

    Long term, our portfolio will perform exactly like VOO.... to the penny... lol! :biggrin:
     

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