took a look at portfolio this morning , was up big 1% , then I noticed that 70% of my portfolio was in the red , whats up ? It was GOOGLE !! way way up today 4% , and I have almost 20% of my portfolio in that position ( yes , too much weight in one holding) The gains in google were masking over the rest of what is a ho hum day for the rest of my portfolio. and now the rest of the portfolio is slowly gong green ............................. Just got a call from my insurance agent: I need to vent WASHINGTON STATE : THE INSURANCE COMMISSIONER has issued a decree ? ruling ? whatever , that insurance companies can no longer use Credit Scores as a way of determining risk, he/they say it is discriminatory, in other words , people who have GOOD CREDIT and GOOD DRIVING RECORDS no longer get a discount, so the hard working people that pay bills on time , and don't get into accidents , are no longer getting discounts for doing that. As a result , my homeowners , and vehicle insurance will be going up !! Socialism on the way , maybe I need to get out of Washington not just Seattle.
LOL.....oldmanram. I like how they respond.....they dont give those with the poor credit "your" rate. They increase your premium to "their" rate. BUT.....you should "feel good" about the change. The insurance companies probably supported the change.....on the QT......so they would have an excuse to raise everyone's rate. Not the same at all....but for some reason reminds me of when I lived up there. The local NATURAL GAS utility had a big advertising campaign to get people to use less and conserve Natural Gas. So we.....and many others.....did our duty and used less gas. A short time later they raised the price because the usage was down and they needed a higher price to support the utility. They even HAD THE NERVE to say that conservation by customers was a greater success than anticipated and the resulting drop in gas usage was the cause.
Anyone else find it hysterical how the two googles (GOOG & GOOGL) are in 2 different trajectories today? Seems like if you’re with GOOG you have more value now but today you’re in the red, and with GOOGL you’re well in the green today but less overall value
Hello, Thanks for a very interesting thread. I've read through most of it, and I find it very informative and helpful to learn from the seasoned & tested. @WXYZ which companies do you find the most interesting, from a long term perspective, to invest in today? If you would be able to list your 5-10 favorites, I would find that very valuable. All ideas and thoughts are welcome. Other authors in the thread are very welcome to add their own, and preferrably motivate them with a (however short) caption. Thanks again for the informative thread, it's been very helpful in learning more!
HEY LONGGONE.....welcome to the thread. Feel free to participate and post.....new regulars are always a good thing. HERE is the answer to your question.......not based on what I think....but.....based on what I ACTUALLY do in real life. AS USUAL I am once again posting my PORTFOLIO MODEL. My initial criteria to start the process to consider a business are.......BIG CAP, AMERICAN, DIVIDEND PAYING, GREAT MANAGEMENT, ICONIC PRODUCT, WORLD WIDE LEADER IN THEIR FIELD, LONG TERM HORIZON, etc, etc, etc. PORTFOLIO MODEL "Here is my "PORTFOLIO MODEL" for all accounts managed which is the basis for MUCH of my discussion in this thread. I am re-posting this since I often talk in this thread about my portfolio model. My custom in the past on this sort of thread was to re-post my portfolio model every once in a while since I will tend to talk about it once in a while. I "manage" six portfolios for various family including a trust. ALL are set up in this fashion. If I was starting this portfolio today, lets say with $200,000. I would put half the money into the stock side of the portfolio, with an equal amount going into each stock. The other half of the money would go into the fund side of the portfolio, with an equal amount going into each fund. As is my long time custom, I would than let the portfolio run as it wished with NO re-balancing, in other words, I would let the winners run. Over the LONG TERM of investing in this style (at least in my actual portfolios), the stock side seems to reach and settle in at about 55% of the total portfolio and the fund side at about 45% of the total portfolio over time. That is a GOOD THING since it tells me that my stock picks are generally beating the funds over the longer term. AND....since the funds in the account generally meet or beat the SP500, that is a VERY good thing. As mentioned in a post in this thread, I include the funds in the portfolio as a counter-balance to my investing BIAS and stock picking BIAS and to add a top active management fund that often beats the SP500 (Fidelity Contra Fund) and a SP500 Index Fund to get broad exposure to the best 500 companies in AMERICAN business and economy. The funds also give me broad diversification as a counter-balance to my very concentrated 10 stock portfolio. At the same time the funds double and triple up on my individual stock holdings............that I consider the BEST individual businesses in the WORLD. STOCKS: Alphabet Inc Amazon Apple Costco Home Depot Honeywell Nike Microsoft Proctor & Gamble Nvidia MUTUAL FUNDS: SP500 Index Fund Fidelity Contra Fund CAUTION: This is a moderate aggressive to aggressive portfolio on the stock side with the small concentration of stocks and the mix of stocks that I hold and with the concentration of big name tech stocks. Especially for my age group. (71). So for anyone considering this sort of portfolio, be careful and consider your risk tolerance and where you are in your life and financial needs. I am able to do this sort of portfolio since my stock market account is NOT needed for my retirement income AND I have a fairly HIGH RISK TOLERANCE. In addition I am a fully invested, all the time, LONG TERM investor. (LONG TERM meaning many years, 5, 10, 20, years or more)" MY COMMENT This portfolio is HIGHLY CONCENTRATED on the big cap side of things. OBVIOUSLY between the funds and my ten stock holdings there is MUCH doubling and tripling up on the stocks. THAT is INTENTIONAL. I strongly subscribe to the view of Buffett and some others that TOO MUCH diversification kills returns. I do NOT believe in the current diversification FAD that most people seem to now follow.......or think they are following. I DO NOT do bonds and think the current level of bonds held by younger investors.....those under age 50.....is extremely foolish.I DO NOT do market timing or Technical Analysis.
LONGGONE.....the above are what I currently own for the long term......and if I was starting out today.....what I would want to own. I see these 10 companies as the GUTS of the USA economy and markets. I believe in these companies to the point that the two funds that I own......triple up....on these holdings. I like to have a good mix of consumer and tech BIG NAMES. Since I am NOT a trader.....my goal is to hold these businesses for a long time. I dont know if you noticed....but I post......in real time....any changes that I might make to this portfolio when they happen. A few other posters on here tend to do the same thing.
That is a good observation Zukodany. I never pay any attention to the difference since I prefer to own voting shares if I own a piece of a company. BUT....with a company this HUGE....and most shareholders votes being irrelevant....if I was buying now I would probably just buy the CLASS C shares and save a few bucks......or a bit over about a half a percent in the price per share.
I am ABSOLUTELY SHOCKED.......the FED did nothing today. Fed says US economy making progress as central bank ponders pullback https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-fomc-monetary-policy-decision-july-2021-133205460.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The Federal Reserve on Wednesday held interest rates at near-zero, but hinted that the U.S. economic recovery is getting closer to a place where it may not need as much monetary support. The Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday kept its benchmark interest rate in the range of 0% to 0.25%, but provided an update on its December 2020 commitment to purchasing at least $120 billion a month in U.S. Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities until the recovery looked like it was making “substantial further progress.” “Since then, the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings,” the FOMC statement said. The decision was unanimous. The policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee noted that inflation still appears to be the result of “transitory factors,” identical to its wording from its last policy decision six weeks ago. A wide variety of inflationary readings since its June meeting six weeks ago have pointed to further price pressures. The Consumer Price Index, one major measure of inflation, showed prices increasing by 5.4% on a year-over-year basis in June, the fastest pace since August 2008. Rising prices have spurred some chatter within the Fed over the possibility of more persistent inflation. But some of the high inflation readings over the past few months have been the result of price pressures from microchip shortages (i.e. in car and truck prices) and the ways in which inflation itself is measured (called “base effects”). Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told Congress two weeks ago that the jury is still out on how persistent inflation will prove to be, arguing that the next six months will paint a clearer picture. “It will depend on the path of the economy, it really will,” he told the House Financial Services Committee on July 14. Standing repo facility The Fed also made an announcement on its intention to set up “standing repo facilities” to improve the plumbing of the financial system. In the depths of the pandemic, the market for U.S. Treasuries (largely perceived to be the most liquid market in the world) dried up amid a global dash for cash. In the absence of other counterparties, the Fed itself offered liquidity to certain primary dealers on an ad-hoc basis. But nonbanks unable to access the Fed were locked out. The Fed said its standing repo facility would help improve market making in future episodes of stress by offering two facilities, one to serve counterparties domestically and another to serve those abroad. The domestic facility will have a maximum operation size of $500 billion (with minimum bid rates at 25 basis points) and the foreign and international monetary authorities (or FIMA) facility will be set at 25 basis points with a per counterparty limit of $60 billion. “These facilities will serve as backstops in money markets to support the effective implementation of monetary policy and smooth market functioning,” the Fed said in a statement. A report from a team of former U.S. Treasury secretaries and Fed officials on Wednesday morning recommended that the Fed set up a standing repo facility to patch a weakness in the “globally crucial market” for U.S. government debt." MY COMMENT SO....NOTHING happened today....as everyone knew would be the outcome. BUT....I am sure we will see within a day or two.....if not immediately....the financial media starting to fear monger and speculate about the next time the FED is going to speak to the masses. And....the whole process will start over again. As a little retail investor.....I really dont care at all as to the FED ending their purchase program for Treasuries and mortgages. It is going to have......NO....impact at all on the markets unless you are extremely short term or a day trader. I dont care if they end it next week or a year from now. The markets.....when it happens....will throw a little HISSY FIT for about a week or so and then simply move on as though nothing happened. I can hear someone talking on the TV in another room.....I assume it is POWELL. He will probably screw up some obscure phrase or term......by accident...... and tank the entire market for the day. I hope he is reading from a prompter.
I am jumping ahead of the market close today....tomorrow.....is AMAZON reporting day. The last of the BIG reports this week....although for me.....I still have PG reporting on Friday. It is my FANTASY that AMZN will announce a stock split tomorrow.......10 for 1. As I said....."FANTASY". Here is a little article that I saw recently on the topic......but.....I will not post the entire article since it is just totally speculative. There is NOTHING of any substance to support this. Stock Split in the Stars for Amazon? https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-split-stars-amazon-142118659.html LOOKS like we got a slight BUMP in the averages from the FED announcement...although POWELL is still talking....so no one is safe.
One last comment on China......yeah right. Is the End Near for U.S.-Listed Chinese Companies? Probably, Says Carson Block https://www.institutionalinvestor.c...-Chinese-Companies-Probably-Says-Carson-Block (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The selloff in Chinese stocks in the U.S. in recent days — the worst downturn since 2008 — could be a signal that the boom in U.S. listings of Chinese companies is coming to an end, according to Muddy Waters Capital CEO and founder Carson Block. The rout seems to have been driven by the latest in a series of crackdowns by the Chinese government on companies whose shares trade publicly in the U.S. Block, a short seller who became famous for exposing Chinese frauds, believes the communist government is sending a message to its corporations. That message: “Don’t think of raising money in the U.S. capital markets.” For companies already in the U.S., Block thinks China is sending a warning. “You’ve got to work on your plan to basically get the f**k out of the U.S. before you get kicked out,” Block told Institutional Investor in a phone interview. The short seller suspects that Chinese authorities are responding to a law passed by Congress last year that would eventually require the delisting of Chinese companies whose auditors have not been allowed to be inspected by the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board, a U.S. regulator. “China is not going to allow the PCAOB inspections,” he said. But Block is quick to note that his view is only an “interpretation” of the events. “When it comes to trying to understand what’s going on behind the curtain in China, I mean, nobody can do it,” he admitted. At the least, he said, “foreign investors have learned that China does not feel that it needs to keep them happy anymore. They are lambs that can be sacrificed.” The sell off, which had wiped out $769 billion in Chinese shares by the end of trading Monday, followed China’s crackdown on its for-profit educational companies, like Tal Education and Gaotu Techedu, formerly known as GSX. Block has previously called Tal a “real business with fake financials” and GSX-cum-Gaoutu a “fake business with fake financials.” Both firms have denied his claims. As of Tuesday, Gaotu’s stock had sunk from a high of $149 at its January peak to under $3 per share, after China’s Ministry of Education announced on Saturday it would ban education firms from making profits, raising capital, or going public. But the attack on education companies is just the latest blow. A number of other U.S.-listed Chinese stocks have been under pressure in recent weeks, following the IPO of ride-hailing company Didi Global, which Chinese authorities opposed on cybersecurity grounds. Didi’s app was then removed from the country’s app stores. That action was followed by reports that China is reviewing the corporate structure known as VIE, for variable interest entities, that allows many Chinese companies to circumvent rules against foreign ownership and list in the U.S. “I don’t think that you can look at anything that’s happened here with the education companies or with Didi right after its IPO in isolation,” said Block. “I think that this really all relates to the auditor inspection issue and the trajectory of the relationship between China and the U.S., which is probably in a downward direction overall, but it’s certainly no better than sideways.” Block thinks the moves are a face-saving effort by China. “It’s really just Xi Jinping [the leader of the Chinese Communist Party] wanting to make it look like the Chinese companies are exiting the U.S. out of China’s strength and the robustness of the capital markets alternatives available in Hong Kong and in mainland China, as opposed to the U.S. saying, ‘We’ve had enough... you’re gone,’” he argued. The biggest impact on Chinese companies, according to Block, could be the review of the VIE structure, which runs across sectors. He noted that almost all Chinese companies listed in the U.S. use that structure. “A lot of lawyers and investors are genuinely shocked right now that the VIE is up for review, but that’s just because they thought that China really wants foreign capital — it would never burn U.S. investors,” suggested Block, who previously worked as a lawyer in China. That might have been the case years ago, but not now, he said. “I mean this is 2021,” he added. “China’s relationship with the U.S. is not good.” While the Biden administration hasn’t softened the nation’s stance toward China, the U.S.-China relationship began to sour during the Trump administration. A big change came last December when Congress voted unanimously in favor of legislation that would force the delisting of Chinese companies whose auditors have not been allowed to be inspected by the PCAOB. Because they are based in China, these companies until now have been able to avoid the U.S. requirement that companies be audited by PCAOB-inspected accounting firms in order to sell shares in the U.S. Short sellers have argued that rather than open up their books to U.S. auditors, Chinese companies would simply move their listings to Hong Kong. Now they have another reason to do so. Block pointed out that his views are not part of a China short campaign. “I’m not putting money behind this,” he insisted. “I’m not betting my business on this. I’m just telling you as somebody who’s been a player in this for a little north of a decade, this is what I believe is going on.” MY COMMENT Keep in mind that this article is based on a SHORT SELLER.....so take what you wish from it....knowing that info. My personal view......this is a POWER MOVE by China. They are giving the finger to the USA government. They think that they are WINNING the battle for dominance around the world and are sending a message that they DONT NEED THE USA anymore. They have NO RESPECT for weakness and they are going to act accordingly. I also agree.....that they do not want to have financial audits of any of their companies....yes these companies are controlled by the Chinese government. They want to maintain the ILLUSION of independence and financial honesty of their companies. As I said long ago in a few posts......any CEO or BOARD of an AMERICAN company that does manufacturing in China and allows China to corrupt and STEAL their technology and systems....SHOULD....be sued by shareholders for management malpractice.......and....FIRED. BUYER BEWARE.
Ouch! PayPal is NOW feeling the burn from departing eBay users. I was talking about this last year and predicted this WILL take a toll on the company. The good news is that Venmo, which they acquired, is absolutely killing it. They are currently down 5% in after hour trading
I see that POWELL....or something....caused the market to weaken the last hour or so......TYPICAL. The longer he keeps talking the more the financial media gets stuff that they can go around in circles speculating about and over-analyzing. I STILL managed to end modestly in the green today.....even though I think 6 of my 10 positions were red. I did manage to BEAT the SP500 by 0.22%. Co all things considered.....a good day today.
I really have no interest in Facebook.....or plans to buy the stock....but for those that do...here is the latest earnings report that came out today. Facebook beats earnings expectations, but warns of significant growth slowdown https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/28/facebook-fb-earnings-q2-2021.html MY COMMENT Looks like a beat on earnings and revenue....but.....guidance was not very positive. I am sure the stock will suffer as a result.
After deep thoughts about the subject I will likely put my NVDA+NOW proceeds into FB tomorrow at the open. Red or no red. I hate fb! Can’t stand zuckerberg, but at this rate I DO BELIEVE that fb has much more room to grow. So there. The panel has decided
The one strong feature that fb has over other FAANG assets is that it’s NOT relying on China to advance its popularity and growth. It’s pretty much non existent there as it’s banned by the communist party. I’m comparing its market cap with the likes of Google and apple and it certainly has what it takes to get to where these 2 giants are. It’s user base is enormous and it’s been through tons of regulations and hearings. Till anything changes with restrictions, I’m betting that it will continue to grow exponentially year over year
We have a winner......FB. One of the BIG FAANG stocks. You cant argue with success. I dont like them and I dont like Zuckerberg either.....but....it is all about making and growing money. I do like that he seems to be focused on creating the next big thing....beyond FB.
Emmet: NICE BOAT !!!! But if I moved over to the east coast I'm sure I'd need a sportfisher something like this IF I COULD AFFORD THE INSURANCE !!! That would earn me a divorce for sure !! Meanwhile : UP .87 % today Mainly due to GOOGL half stocks up half down about 75% OF MY ETF'S UP I'll join the "I think Zuckerburg is a troll" club
You guys will have to take care of the afternoon tomorrow and AMAZON....reporting after the bell. I have to take off about mid day for an early evening show about 100 miles away....so I will miss the close and the BIG earnings report. Also reporting tomorrow are Altria, YUM, and Hershey.....among many others. I no longer own any Altria......but back before the company split into two.....due to the tobacco liability....... when it was all called Phillip Morris.......the stock was a very long term holding for my mom in her account for about 50 years. I also had the stock in my account for at least 20 years....perhaps longer. I dont know how long it was a family holding....since it was first bought by my Grandfather.....and my mom inherited it from her parents estate in about 1964. Over the 50 years that my mom held it....she reinvested all dividends.......and went through a number of stock splits. Over time it became the largest single holding in her account. In the end we were concerned about the tobacco liability....but the stock just continued to grow and grow and power on. It has been a while....but I think she ended up somewhere around 15,000 shares. I dont have any records of her account....but if my memory is right....I think she started with under 20 shares in 1964. It got so big that we eventually stopped reinvesting the dividends to try to diversify her account some. A good example of the POWER of compounding and reinvesting dividends. She usually held about 15-20 stocks......all BIG CAP companies like......EXXON, COLGATE, PHILLIP MORRIS, PROCTOR & GAMBLE, GE, IBM, MSFT, COST, SBUX, COKE, PEPSI, etc, etc, etc. HERE....is a bit of a snapshot of what this company was like in the 1990's and earlier....it was a HUGE conglomerate: "In order to maintain this position in a climate increasingly hostile toward the tobacco industry, Philip Morris began diversifying its interests and expanding into international markets. With its acquisitions of Miller Brewing in 1970, General Foods Corporation in 1985, and Kraft, Inc. in 1988, Philip Morris became the world's largest food corporation and the biggest beverage company in North America in terms of revenue, profit, and shareholder equity." By the 1990's my mom was raking in anywhere from $18,000 to $25,000 a year in dividends on this single stock. She ended up owning some big companies in their own right from divestment's from this company....Kraft Foods, General Foods, etc. This is one of the companies that established my LOVE.....for BIG CAP GROWTH companies and CONGLOMERATES.
I knew you and Zukodany would be up nicely today oldmanram.....lately when I do really well you two are CRYING.....and when you do well....I am minimal to moderate green. Our portfolios seem to always be out of sync....you were +.87% today and I was +.20% today.
