Good morning contrarians! Stock futures are up a bit, with small caps leading the charge once more. Russell 2000 is up 0.4% with S&P 500 and Dow Industrials up about 0.3%. Nasdaq is up about 0.1%. Those numbers as of 0630. This follows new record closes for the S&P and Nasdaq yesterday. Seems we’ve been singing this same tune every day this week. Weekly initial jobless claims are at a post-pandemic low. That should bode well for today’s non-farm payrolls report, arguably the most over-hyped event on the economic calendar. Read the full briefing, listen to the podcast: https://contrarianpod.substack.com/p/non-farm-payrolls-non-event-daily-cb4
Thinking largely chop today ahead of the upcoming long 3-day weekend. Still thinking we'll see the vol picking up around mid month. And yes, still have my eminis short on from 4542 It's a really long while that I've felt this strong about a directional move (not just all completely on "feels" either, but with data and charts to back that up too), which I am still thinking will be down in the weeks to come. Could be wrong but we'll see. GL to y'all's today, and catch up with you guys next week. Enjoy long weekened!
Amazon has begun informing Australian customers that it would prefer they do not use a Visa card when buying things through its platform. From November 1, Amazon will apply a 0.5% surcharge to purchases made using Visa credit cards on Amazon.com.au. ...The spokesperson said as a result of Visa's "continued high cost of payments", a surcharge is currently being added to Visa credit card payments in Australia. This has been in place in Singapore since August. Australian customers with a Visa credit card as their default payment method will receive a AU$20 gift card when they add a different payment method to their account. "With the rapidly changing payments landscape around the world, we anticipate a future that is less card-centric in the coming years, and we will continue innovating on behalf of customers to add and promote faster, cheaper, and more inclusive payment options to our stores across the globe," added the spokesperson. In response, Visa was tight lipped, but it noted merchant surcharging was allowed in Australia. "The practice of merchant surcharging is permitted under Australian payments regulation, where a merchant may surcharge an amount up to a reasonable cost of card acceptance," a Visa spokesperson told ZDNet.
Interesting Yeah V and MA have been very weak lately and underperformed against the overall market. Some are blaming the Delta variant would reduce consumer spending and some are saying they will get hurt by the emergence of BNPL
Since I'm running very short on time, here is just a very simple analysis going into next week and for this month of September. But, I would think it would be pretty doggone healthy to see a counter trend mover in the SPX that goes and tags the 50dma again, and bounce from there like it has basically all year long. Hence my recent bear sentiment, and Spuz short I put on this AM, plus with the season weakness and volatility around this time of the year, etc. We'll see. Remember that the markets here stateside will be closed all day on Monday for the Labor Day holiday. However, globex equity futures has an abbreviated session. Opening at their normal Sunday 6pm eastern time, then halting at 1pm eastern time on Monday afternoon, before resuming for normal trading hours at 6pm eastern time on Monday evening. Have yourselves all a wonderful 3-day weekend!
SE has been on a tear lately, market cap at almost 200 billion Found some of their ads while using YouTube. I think there is some room for improvement
Here are the most notable earnings releases as well as the highest volatility earnings releases for next week courtesy of earnings whispers: And here is the market week ahead thread on the official subreddit for Stockaholics (r/StockMarket): https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/phgiet/wall_street_week_ahead_for_the_trading_week/ Meanwhile, here's Pete @ Shadowtrader's weekend vid. Haven't watched yet, but will save that for Monday evening when I get back from this extended weekend. I hope you all will have a splendid long 3-day weekend ahead, and a great trading month of September. I will largely be on a read-only mode in here until Tuesday. Enjoy these last remaining days of your summer everyone!
Good morning contrarians! Not much doing in stock futures as we return from the three-day weekend in the U.S. Nasdaq and Russell 2000 down about 0.1% with the Dow Industrials and S&P 500 flat. Those numbers are of 0655. No major economic data releases today so there are some other things affecting (weighing on) markets. Goldman Sachs downgraded its economic outlook over the weekend due to the delta variant and fading fiscal stimulus. The expectation is now for 5.7% annual growth in 2021, down from 6.2%. That’s still pretty high. For now this is enough to weigh on commodities a bit. Industrial commodities (oil and copper, primarily) are down this morning by about 1% and change. Bond yields are rising too, with the 10-year up to 1.36%. Supply chain issues aren’t going away either. Various automakers said the global chip shortage will continue to weigh on the industry. But then we have German industrial output gaining more than expected after three straight months of declines. This is seen as an indication that bottlenecks are easing, so maybe the automakers are just tying to pre-empt some damage. September is historically the worst month for stocks, we’re overdue for a correction, blah blah. There still hasn’t been anything to change the overall narrative though. These issues (delta, supply chains) are not new. Maybe the severity of the delta variant is worth paying closer attention to. Watch the reopening names (cruise lines, airlines, etc) for that.
Was busy today and didn't look at the market pretty much until the closing bell. Yeah interest rates are going up and the dollar is moving up too, let's see if we will finally get the 5% correction that people have been talking about lately (yes only 5 not 10)
Whelp, ended up closing my spuz short trade @ 4502.50 (esu21 contract) captured -40 handles of the downside move from Friday. Not nearly the bang I was looking for tho....but will look to re-enter on a bounce as I still firmly believe there is a helluva lot more downside potential than upside from here imo. But ofc nothing goes in straight lines amirite. Plus this little dippage we’ve had off the post nfp’s has been a bit half hearted thus far to say the least I feel. Pretty piss poor attempt for a pullback that’s not even a full -1% off the ATHs still. Still thinking we’ll go down to tag at least the daily 50sma on the cash SPX at around 4420ish I believe. Will then reassess from there. Anyway, nearly captured 10k on this trade. Not a terrible way to kickoff my return to trading and monitoring the markets world post summer hiatus haha. Will take it. It’s good to be back in the saddle again after so long. Looking forward to getting more active on the trade front again I’ve missed this bigly time. Anyway, onto the next!
