The US dollar index daily chart is showing that the 50-period exponential average and a previous swing low are currently acting as technical support. Watching for a break lower than today’s low price or better still below the daily 200 ema in blue, would be a good continuation trade for silver longs. Whilst the US dollar is receiving favourable flows to the long side, the silver traders should be waiting for the XAGUSD to come down to a support level to buy the dips. Gold could be at $2300-$2500 on the Comex exchange as the likes of LBMA become physically backed by end of 2021 beginning of 2022 as per Basel 3 requirements. As the LBMA move from unallocated to allocated contracts, the demand for physical will push prices higher. Two more delivery dates to keep an eye on are the October 2021 and December 2021 with the latter being a very busy month. If the gold spot price were to rise, the 10-year trend for the Gold/Silver ratio could be 100:1 which would be silver remaining at current prices, but realistically 75:1 would have silver trading above $30/oz by the end of the year. Many silver investors believe the real (unmanipulated ratio) should be 16:1, which is why so many silver stackers get excited about the end of unallocated markets and rising precious metal prices. At a ratio of 16:1 and gold prices around $2300 by the end of the year, the silver spot could be $143/oz which would be more than 10x the price in March 2020.
$23/oz is a good line in the sand with every move down to that level being bought up in August. Obviously, if we get above the current range highs for August and make a clear break, retest, and set up for a continuation higher that would also be bullish for the coming months. For now, my expectation is for this current channel to be tested a few more times before it is released and that will no doubt come with some market turmoil that puts most retail investors off. Keep an eye on the Sunday raids as these events can be good buying opportunities.
From today 8th September 2021 My focus is on the US10 year yields which run inverse to the Gold closing prices. US10Y has been drifting lower since the June FOMC meeting where the Fed lifted the RRP by 5 basis points. Long-term yields, 10-30 are lower with short-term yields not as convinced. September FOMC may see another hike in the RRP and for me, yields drift towards zero across the curve by which point Gold will be up above 2k. The Gold/Silver ratio is trading at its Median price which to me is an indication that the Silver price should move relatively equal to the Gold price under current conditions Gold dropped as the US dollar (purple line) rose on the back of the June FOMC meeting if traders unwind that position as it becomes apparent that the Fed can not taper (Look to the Bank of Canada today, they are ceasing taper, RBA also delaying taper) the US dollar will fall. The triple top resistance on Gold then gets taken and a move to the highs continues.
The latest Silver spot price is moving away from the descending channel and into the middle of the range. We just need the DXY to continue back to $90
Gold and Silver miners are under their daily 50 ema, and it would seem to be a level of resistance for all, a couple of stocks related are above the daily 50 ema.
$TLT just broke out of a corrective pattern. Would be good to see a test and continuation back up to 165.00 That could also coincide with the $XAUUSD#gold#preciousmetals getting towards their all-time highs $VOX.CA$WPM$FNV$GROY$RGLD
After the possible Fat Finger buy from JP Morgan we have actually maintained a bullish stance above the accumulation zone. The next stop higher for Silver could be the previous area of balance and the $23.70 - $23.80 levels
