The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Emmett.......I will be out of town tomorrow and Friday......and some of Monday.....so you and Zukodany hold up the thread and MAKE US SOME MONEY.
     
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  2. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    I can only mess things up here.. too much responsibility… Emmett always does a good job bringing in the green!
    Btw isn’t Apple reporting tomorrow as well?
     
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  3. Trahn Thompson

    Trahn Thompson Active Member

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    Yes, Apple is reporting tomorrow at the close. As far as my accounts and the boys trust's they are all at ATH's. Happy Investing!
     
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  4. Trahn Thompson

    Trahn Thompson Active Member

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    My account
    APPLE
    TELSA
    MICROSOFT
    CRISPR
    AMAZON
    MICROSOFT
    DWAC
    VOO

    Boy's Trust
    APPLE
    TELSA
    VOO

    Happy Investing!
     
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  5. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I think you guys can hold down the fort....Zukodany. Emmett will teach you the ropes. I might get a chance to check in and do a couple of posts in the evening. BUT....I will have no ability to check my account without my token.....which I do not carry with me when I travel. so I will not have any personal results.

    Of course in an emergency or if I had a situation where I needed to I could simply call Schwab on the phone and do anything needed in my account.
     
  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    YES.....you guys are certainly correct.......both Apple and Amazon report after the bell tomorrow.

    I was looking at the earnings calendar earlier. After this week.......the GUTS of the earnings will last three more weeks. Beyond the number of companies reporting each day drops significantly.
     
  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Siting at the airport so decided to do a quick post.

    Stocks Complete the Quick Round Trip to All-Time Highs
    And we celebrate with two timeless lessons.

    https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/marketminder/stocks-complete-the-quick-round

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "The S&P 500 and global stocks have fully erased September’s pullback as of Tuesday’s close, returning to all-time highs. By recovering so quickly, stocks have once again taught two timeless lessons. Let us discuss.

    1. Volatility goes both ways.

    People often use volatility and negativity synonymously, and we will cop to falling into that trap now and then. But volatility really means movement, up and down. High volatility means the market’s movements are bigger—bigger up and bigger down. Usually, the bigger up and bigger down come hand in hand, which is why stocks often recover swiftly from pullbacks and their big brothers, corrections (sharp, sentiment-fueled drops of -10% to -20%).

    So it went this time. The S&P 500 peaked on September 2, with the MSCI World following on September 6. The former troughed 21 trading days later, on October 4—a -5.1% decline.[ii] Yet the return to breakeven took just 12 trading days. The latter took a similar trip—down -5.5% through October 4, recouping the drop in 16 trading days. Fast down, followed by fast up. That happens to be the S&P 500’s sixth-largest 12-day stretch of 2021, by the way. The five that beat it also followed brief pullbacks. One, the 5.9% jump between January 29 and February 17, happened in the first 12 trading days after a -3.6% drop from January 25 to January 29.[iii] The other four happened in April, during the big rally that followed a -4.1% pullback between February 12 and March 4.[iv]

    Those facts are mostly trivia, but they do illustrate why we counsel against trying to time the market’s wiggles. During bull markets, the good bursts and the bad bursts often happen in quick succession. If you run at the first sign of trouble, you could very well miss the good burst that follows, rendering the whole endeavor counterproductive.

    Exhibit 1 illustrates this in borderline comical fashion, clocking the number of trading days each leg of this year’s S&P 500 pullbacks lasted. In all but one case, stocks rose faster than they fell.

    Exhibit 1: Stocks Turn on a Dime

    [​IMG]

    Source: FactSet, as of 10/26/2021. S&P 500 Total Return Index, 12/31/2020 – 10/25/2021.

    If you are wondering, we called this comical because the pullbacks are so frequent, it seems absurd to highlight them. We promise we aren’t trying to feed your myopia! Rather, the opposite: If stocks endure so many wiggles en route to 23.0% year-to-date returns as of Monday’s close, then there is little point in sweating them.[v] They are part and parcel of stocks’ wonderful bull market returns, in our view.

    2. Stocks often bounce while the news is still bad.

    Tying volatility to any one issue is often a fool’s errand, but pullbacks and corrections often feature what we call ghost stories, making it fitting that this one happened as we were all setting out our Halloween decorations and stocking up on candy. In general, ghost stories start with a grain of truth—some negative development—but take it far beyond reality, to a place where expectations get irrationally low. That helps stocks price the negativity relatively quickly, enabling them to move on before the issues resolve. After all, stocks don’t need perfection—better than expected generally suffices.

    Befitting the Halloween season, this autumn’s pullback had three ghost stories: the global supply chain mayhem, Europe and China’s energy shortages, and the potential default of China Evergrande. All three present some modest near-term economic headwinds, and all are still playing out. Container ships are still idling for weeks outside major ports globally, waiting for their turn to dock. Several shelves at our local markets are empty. Europe’s benchmark natural gas prices have fallen a bit from early October’s peak, but they remain over 450% above their 2021 low in early March.[vi] As of mid-October, China was still reportedly enduring localized power cuts. As for Evergrande, it avoided default for now by making its first missed bond payment before the 30-day grace period expired last Friday, but another deadline looms on October 29. Meanwhile, other smaller, distressed property developers have missed payments too, including one on Monday. An orderly collapse of Evergrande and a broader shakeout of troubled firms still seems likely.

    Yet it also seems to be dawning gradually on folks that none of these supposed monsters has teeth. IHS Markit’s flash manufacturing purchasing managers’ indexes, which hit the wires last Friday, showed growth in US and European factories remained widespread despite the supply issues. European wind power generation has picked up. Natural gas producers in the US and Canada are ramping up output to help satisfy high global demand. China is reopening coal mines and even reportedly resumed using Australian coal, perhaps signaling the end of its implicit ban. And while some Chinese developers will fail, the People’s Bank of China is pumping liquidity to healthier companies, helping stabilize the property sector overall. Perfection? Of course not—there is no such thing. Maybe it doesn’t even rate as good news. But better than what people feared a month ago? Sure seems that way to us.

    Merging our two lessons into one, stocks never sound an all clear. If you wait for the ghost stories’ conclusion when Scooby Doo and those pesky meddling kids pull off the mask revealing the ne’er-do-well beneath,[vii] you will probably also miss the aforementioned fast rebounds. This is perhaps the hardest part of investing—the need to stay disciplined through speedbumps and bad news. But the reward is reaping stocks’ long-term returns, and if you need those returns to reach your long-term goals, then that patience is vital to your financial future."

    MY COMMENT

    NO time.....but the lessons are obvious.....eve if most investors do not follow them.

    MAKE ME some money today guys.
     
  8. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    Let’s go let’s GO!
    Safe travels W
    Btw why won’t you create a mockup portfolio on Yahoo financials for you to get exact results as on your real portfolio on Schwab? This way you don’t have to worry about security breach or privacy issues when you’re on the go?
     
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  9. andyvds

    andyvds Active Member

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    Looks like FAANG (better TAANG) is making a come back.
     
    #8189 andyvds, Oct 28, 2021
    Last edited: Oct 28, 2021
  10. The Ragin Cajun

    The Ragin Cajun Active Member

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    Very nice portfolio!

    DWAC is up 15% today, is this a long term hold for you?
     
  11. The Ragin Cajun

    The Ragin Cajun Active Member

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    Hello fellow investors,

    It's been awhile since I posted, life has dealt me some major decisions and life altering forks in the road thanks to our current President. Regardless the train keeps on rolling. It's been a great 1 1/2 year run since starting this portfolio in July 2020, sitting at just under $1,000 shy of my end of year goal that I set in July 2020. Here is my current portfolio:

    Amazon (Long Term)
    Microsoft (Long Term)
    Palantir (Long Term)
    Tesla (Long Term)
    DKNG (Long Term)
    BRK.B (Long Term)
    RDW (Long Term)
    AMC (Short Term)
    CLF (Short term)
    DWAC (Short Term)


    My goal since the beginning is to have about 10-12 stocks and 1 S&P 500 fund (considering another Tech focused fund like QQQ). I am close to my goal on the stock end, would like to add a few more long term stocks. Still have not invested in the S&P 500 fund yet with such high gains in the individual stocks. When the market bull run slows down I will start focusing more on having 50% in an S&P fund. I currently have enough capital to add one or two more long term stocks. Maybe AMD, Nvidia, ARKQ or just add more to current investments like PLTR or RDW. I would also like to add some big CAP dividend paying American companies like HD, PG, KMB, WMT etc...all in all I'm very happy with the progress I've made and feel very comfortable with my investing goals going forward. Any insight is appreciated. Keep up the great work here everyone!

    One last quick note: I would also like to diversify a bit into crypto, I had Ethereum but sold to get into some stocks. Mainly into ETH or BTC long term or one of the new Crypto funds that will be added soon.
     
    #8191 The Ragin Cajun, Oct 28, 2021
    Last edited: Oct 28, 2021
    oldmanram and Trahn Thompson like this.
  12. Trahn Thompson

    Trahn Thompson Active Member

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    Ragin, My plan going in was... Bought at 45 and set a sell limit at 200, hope to short sell but will hold if need be. It is only one percent of my account and really no big deal for me. Just wanted to add some excitement to all my other boring holdings. Happy Investing!
     
  13. Trahn Thompson

    Trahn Thompson Active Member

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    Ragin congrats on meeting your goals. I do like the balance of a S&P fund. Told the wife if anything happens to me move are money and boys trust right into VOO before I'm in the ground. Happy Investing!
     
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  14. The Ragin Cajun

    The Ragin Cajun Active Member

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    I'm in a similar situation as you with DWAC, probably 2%, got in at 25 sold at 38 and unfortunately I got back in at 135. Sitting around even with DWAC close to 70. I will probably sell on a big run up and put the profits into my long term holdings.
     
  15. The Ragin Cajun

    The Ragin Cajun Active Member

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    The more I think about it the more I feel like I should buy more Amazon. It's been trading sideways for so long now and let's face it, not many better stocks long term. Once it splits or announces a split watch out!
     
  16. Trahn Thompson

    Trahn Thompson Active Member

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    Amazon is the best YTD value buy out of the big 5. Soon or later they are going to have to split or they will get knocked out of the top 5. Happy Investing!
     
  17. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    welcome back. let's go brandon!
     
  18. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    Hey guys nice to see everyone back and sounds like you guys are having a good year investment wise!
    Just like andyvid pointed out earlier I feel that there’s a big emphasis on big market cap growth companies currently… the little guys are collapsing, look at TWLO today, down 16% yesterday TWTR dropped 10% same with companies like eBay Snap, Pinterest…
    I’m usually bad at this but I have a hunch that AAPL & AMZN will perform ok this time around, they may take a temporary 1-2% drop after the bell today, but I wouldn’t expect them to break the current trend of big growth market cap climb. We’ll see…
    I’m sooo done with speculating in volatile stocks.. I think that a big reason of why I am lagging behind the s&p this year was because 30% of my portfolio was invested in speculative holdings that simply didn’t move or went down… so I’m done with those!
    I’m just juicing up positions which brought me money and continuously climbed
     
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  19. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Well done Emmett and Zukodany......unfortunately......Amazon is not going to help tomorrow.

    Amazon badly misses on earnings and revenue, gives disappointing fourth-quarter guidance

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/28/amazon-amzn-earnings-q3-2021.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Key Points
    • Amazon reported third-quarter results on Thursday, missing on the top and bottom lines.
    • It also gave fourth-quarter sales guidance that was below Wall Street’s estimates.
    Amazon shares dropped more than 4% in extended trading on Thursday after the company reported weaker-than-expected results for the third quarter and delivered disappointing guidance for the critical holiday period.

    • Earnings: $6.12 vs $8.92 per share expected, according to analysts surveyed by Refinitiv
    • Revenue: $110.81 billion vs $111.6 billion expected, according to analysts surveyed by Refinitiv
    Amazon is reckoning with decelerating sales growth as consumers go back to physical stores and the company faces supply chain challenges. Revenue in the third quarter rose 15%, down from 37% growth in the same period a year ago.

    For the fourth quarter, Amazon forecast sales between $130 billion and $140 billion, representing growth between 4% and 12%. Analysts surveyed by FactSet were expecting revenue to rise 13.2% year-over-year to $142.1 billion.

    Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said the company expects to take on “several billion dollars” of extra costs in its consumer business in the fourth quarter as a result of labor shortages, higher employee costs, global supply chain constraints and increased freight and shipping costs. Amazon is navigating these challenges as it enters the peak holiday season, he said.

    “It’ll be expensive for us in the short term, but it’s the right prioritization for our customers and partners,” Jassy said in a statement.

    The company has taken steps to shore up its supply chain amid the global challenges, by adding new shipping ports and boosting its fleet of planes and trucks.

    Amazon said earlier this month it plans to hire 275,000 permanent and seasonal employees nationwide, in part to help deal with the holiday shopping rush. CFO Brian Olsavsky said last quarter Amazon was facing steep labor costs as it looks to hire and retain employees, including by doling out $3,000 sign-on bonuses and launching new perks like free college tuition.

    On a call with reporters, Olsavsky said Amazon expects to take on $4 billion in costs related to labor and inflation, as well as productivity headwinds in warehouses.

    Amazon said its operating profit in the fourth quarter will be in the range of $0 and $3 billion. That’s a significant step down from its operating profit of $6.9 billion in the year-ago period.

    Sales in online stores rose 3% from a year earlier to $49.9 billion, while physical store revenue increased 13% to $4.27 billion.

    Revenue from third-party seller services, which includes commissions on the marketplace as well as fulfillment and shipping fees, climbed 18% to $24.25 billion, a slowdown from 34% growth in the second quarter and 60% in the first.

    For the first time in its history, revenue from Amazon services surpassed its retail sales. Net product sales were $54.9 billion in the quarter, while revenue from Amazon Web Services, advertising, third-party seller services and Prime subscriptions added up to $55.9 billion.

    Amazon Web Services topped estimates, with revenue jumping 39% to $16.11 billion, while analysts expected sales of $15.48 billion. AWS generated $4.88 billion in operating income in the period, while operating profit at the parent company was just $880 million.

    Without the hefty profit from AWS, Amazon would have recorded a loss for the quarter."

    MY COMMENT

    Some really bad numbers here. BUT.....hey everyone has performance issues once in a while......right guys?. the guidance is also.......simply......BAD. Without AWS....they would have reported a loss.

    So....they have had a very POOR year this year for the stock...and....now this. It should be a really NASTY day for them tomorrow.

    NOW.....the next couple of earnings reports are going to have them under the microscope.
     
  20. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    That is a good idea about a mock-up portfolio Zukodany. But it just does not bother me to be away from my portfolio.....it is kind of nice to be away from it.....once in a while....actually. I do have all my stocks listed on my phone so I can see daily action.
     

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