The Long Term Investor

AND....with us heading into the LAST market week of 2021 next week.....here is how we did this week and year to date.

DOW year to date +17.46%
DOW for the short week +1.66%

SP500 year to date +25.82%
SP500 for the short week +2.28%

NASDAQ 100 year to date +26.54%
NASDAQ 100 for the short week +3.33%

NASDAQ year to date +21.45%
NASDAQ for the short week.....+3.19%

RUSSELL year to date +13.51%
RUSSELL for the short week +3.17%

The good old NASDAQ 100 has retaken the year to date lead. ALTHOUGH.....it is neck and neck with the SP500. Next week will tell the story of the best average for 2021. BOTH are having AMAZING years.

 

I like the message of this little article for the year end and for the start of a new investing year.

Two big investing lessons a financial journalist learned in 2021

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/two-...ial-journalist-learned-in-2021-175210494.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"If you aren't taking a lot of notes each day as an investor, you aren't learning and getting better at the craft of making money in the markets. And to be sure, there were a lot of lessons for investors in 2021.

Financial journalist Sam Ro of TKer tells Yahoo Finance Live he learned quite a bit about markets this year.

One lesson is the incredible resilience of corporate America in the face of surging inflation, labor shortages and COVID-19 pandemic uncertainty.

Nowhere is that view on display more than in the nearly 25% return for the S&P 500 (^GSPC) year-to-date. That gain reflects impressive earnings growth by companies — FactSet's John Butters estimates earnings growth for S&P 500 companies will be a record 45% when it's all said and done.

Next reminder, if you will, is that the U.S. consumer — even in trying times — is going to find some way to spend.

"Consumers are just relentless when it comes to consumption even if there might be inflation or there is a pandemic out there," explained Ro, former Yahoo Finance managing editor.

To be sure, personal income and spending data out on Thursday serves a reminder to Ro's observation.

Personal spending rose a solid 0.6% in November, slower than a 1.4% blistering pace in October said the Commerce Department. The personal savings rate of consumers continued to trek lower — it stood at 6.9% in November, compared to 12.6% in April.

Meanwhile on Wednesday, the Conference Board reported consumer confidence increased by a greater-than-expected margin in December, with the headline index at 115.8 during the month and higher than Bloomberg’s consensus estimates of 111.0.

Added Ro, "People, regardless of the dangers of what's going on out there, they are going to try to figure out a way to live their life and consume and experience those experiences."

MY COMMENT

YEP......we just TRUDGE FORWARD.....through it all. People and investors. AND....if you keep at it long enough you get to the end of the long term and find out that it was ALL worth it.

I have another lesson to go with the above.....DO NOT....rely on what you see from financial journalists in the media. It is nice to be educated and read the articles and opinions......BUT.....none of it is investing advice. if it is put out there as investing advice.....BEWARE.

 

Yippee-ki-yay.......a three day break from the markets......it seems like Christmas.......or....for those that dont celebrate Christmas....The Holiday Season.

HAPPY HOLIDAYS to EVERYONE.......WE ALL DESERVE IT.

 

I like your portfolio Sundance. A very aggressive portfolio.....definately ONLY for those with a high RISK TOLERANCE. But for someone like yourself that seems to recognize that......I can see it. I like your philosophy on diversification and the long term holding period that you do. I also like the reinvested dividends and the lack of trading.

If you have owned this mix for while you have done very well..........with TESLA being up by 2,396% over the past five years and Apple being up by 508% over five years. PLUS.....the SP500 has been up by 111% over the past five years. KILLER numbers.

 

The BEST economic plan for government is to......get out of the way....quit trying to control the economy.....give MAXIMUM freedom to private business.....quit trying to take and spend other peoples money.

Stimulus … or Stimu-Less?
New research from the EU shows, once again, that fiscal “stimulus” is often a misnomer.

https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/marketminder/stimulus-or-stimuless

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"When the $1.75 trillion budget bill known as Build Back Better reached an apparent impasse in the Senate on Sunday, political spectators got a heavy dose of theatrics—but the US economy did not lose out on “stimulus,” which we think was a misnomer from the start. Love or loathe the proposal, we think these things rarely (if ever) have the economic impact advertised, and pundits regularly overstate their benefits for the economy and stocks. To see the latest example, let us look to the EU, which passed a huge public investment package in July 2020—which hasn’t demonstrably created demand.

At the time, the world hailed the EU Recovery Fund as a landmark “stimulus” package that, in addition to pooling EU nations’ sovereign debt for the first time, would deploy nearly €700 billion worth of new investments over the next five years. That, supposedly, would juice economic growth in the short and long term. To ensure this, the fund’s regulatory framework stressed that “EU funds should be used to the Union’s overall benefit and/or in line with EU priorities and do not replace national spending that Governments would, anyway, implement.” (Boldface ours.)

That seems crystal clear. But new research from the European Network for Economic and Fiscal Policy Research, known as EconPol Europe, suggests this hasn’t gone according to plan. Instead of launching new projects, Germany, Austria and Spain allocated “the largest share of their grants to finance projects that were either already planned or to extend/continue projects that were already existing.”[ii] In other words, these nations swapped EU money for national funds they would have spent anyway. It was an accounting maneuver, not stimulus.

Obviously, these two situations are different. The US isn’t the EU, and the EU Recovery Fund’s focus on green and digital investments technically has more in common with last month’s infrastructure bill than Build Back Better. But the same general principle applies, in our view: When it comes to big public spending bills, the implementation and details often don’t match the sweeping claims that accompany the legislation. We saw this with the infrastructure plan, billed as a $1 trillion investment package even though only about $550 billion represented new spending. That spending is also set to trickle out over many years, making it entirely possible future Congresses could amend those budget line items, reallocating or cutting that projected spending over time—a vulnerability Build Back Better would have shared. That, in our view, is a striking parallel with those EU nations’ budget tricks.

Politicians in both parties often sell big multiyear budget packages to voters as if they are guaranteed to play out exactly as the initial legislation outlines. But every budget is a multiyear package, and line items change all the time. In 2017, the Republicans’ tax reform legislation scheduled the $10,000 cap on state and local tax (SALT) tax deductions to expire in 2025. Build Back Better would have raised that cap to $80,000 through 2030, then making a $10,000 cap permanent from 2031 on. Does anyone think it wouldn’t have been tweaked again? And again? As for the spending side, remember the Sequestration budget cuts passed in 2011? Those capped discretionary spending from 2013 through 2021, contributing to the dreaded fiscal cliff in 2012. They took effect after a one-year reprieve, yet discretionary spending has far exceeded the initial caps every year the sequester has been in effect.[iii] Turns out those “forced” cuts weren’t so forceful—Congress raised the cap four times.[iv]

Every line item on the Federal budget is a line in the sand, easily wiped and redrawn, not a stone carving. Markets know this, which we think is a big reason stocks don’t have big pre-set reactions to tax and spending changes. When fiscal policy is in permanent flux, there isn’t much point in getting hung up on potential changes.

In our view, the notion that Build Back Better or any of the recent spending packages would magically multiply economic activity is a fallacy. Much as technocrats in both parties love the idea of directing investment and pulling levers to speed growth, ours is a private sector-led economy. Setting aside the sociological implications, which we think stocks see through, more public spending risks crowding out private spending and investment, which isn’t automatically a net economic benefit. Even transfer payments don’t have a huge impact on consumption, as demonstrated by how many households saved their COVID relief payments instead of spending them. Consumer spending didn’t suddenly accelerate once the Treasury started mailing out child tax credit payments over the summer. Instead of viewing fiscal policy changes in terms of “stimulus,” we suggest sizing them up for the potential winners and losers they create instead"

MY COMMENT

Government by either party should have ONE job.......give business maximum freedom....and get out of the way.

 

... ....

 

SO.....as we head into Christmas weekend.....here is where we stand for the open on Monday. We are down to the FINAL FIVE market days of 2021. Next Friday at the close of the market the gains will be.....locked in. The Monday after that we start at.....year to date 0.00%.

US STOCKS-S&P 500 hovers near record high as Omicron worries recede

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-stocks-p-500-hovers-154031051.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Wall Street's main indexes rose for a third straight session on Thursday after early data suggested the Omicron variant of the coronavirus was less severe than feared, lifting the mood ahead of Christmas break.

The S&P 500 was within striking distance of its record high hit on Nov. 22, riding on broader gains, including in travel-related stocks, which are highly sensitive to pandemic-related news.

Casino operators Melco Resorts & Entertainment Ltd, Wynn Resorts and MGM Resorts rose between 1% and 6%, while the S&P 1500 airlines index advanced 0.7%.

Two vaccine makers said their shots offered protection against Omicron, as UK data suggested it may cause proportionally fewer hospitalizations than the Delta coronavirus variant, supporting conclusions reached in South Africa.

World Health Organization officials have, however, warned against drawing firm conclusions about its virulence.

As investors head into the new year following what has been a bumper year for the stock markets, the impact of Omicron variant on the global economy is expected to be in focus.

The S&P 500 is on track for an 87% gain since the end of 2018, its best three-year performance in more than two decades.

"2022 is actually going to be a better year than people are currently forecasting," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research.

"We have reopening of the economy, reduction in the supply chain disruptions and we just learn to tolerate new variants of the COVID virus."

With trading volumes thinner than usual ahead of Christmas and New Year holidays, Wall Street's main indexes looked set to wrap up a short week on an strong note.

At 10:13 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 231.77 points, or 0.65%, at 35,985.66, the S&P 500 rose 28.11 points, or 0.60%, at 4,724.67, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 66.38 points, or 0.43%, at 15,588.27.

All 11 major S&P 500 sector indexes were higher, with industrials and financials - which typically gain when the economic outlook improves - posting the sharpest gains.

Boosting sentiment, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration authorized Merck & Co's antiviral pill for COVID-19, after giving the go-ahead to a similar treatment from Pfizer Inc a day earlier.

New York-listed shares of JD.com slumped 9% after the e-commerce company's largest shareholder, Tencent, said it would transfer its stake in the company worth HK$127.69 billion ($16.37 billion) to shareholders.

Latest data showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held below pre-pandemic levels but price pressures continued to build up, with a measure of underlying inflation recording its largest annual increase since the 1980s in November.

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index - the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation - rose 0.5% last month, slightly above economists' forecast of 0.4%.

Crocs Inc slumped 15% as the rubber clogs maker said it would buy privately owned footwear label Heydude for $2.5 billion in a cash-and-stock deal.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by 2.5-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by 1.6-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq.

The S&P 500 posted 29 new 52-week highs and no new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 56 new highs and 69 new lows."

MY COMMENT

At the moment....EVERYTHING.....seems to be known and breaking to the positive side when it comes to news and events. I am expecting another BIG POSITIVE week next week. I am ALSO expecting another good year in 2022. My view is that the financial media and the "experts" are LOW-BALLING the expectations for 2022.

 

Hi Bigmaix

I usually NEVER re-balance my portfolio......at the first of the year or any other time. I try to just let the stocks have their head.....and....run wild. I prefer to.......LET WINNERS RUN.

A long time ago I had to re-balance my mom's account due to Phillip Morris getting to be way too big of a position compared to the rest of the account due to bringing in $25,000 to $30,000 a year in dividends that were reinvested. As a result of that reinvestment over many, many, years the position just got too big....especially....considering the cigarette litigation at the time. I did not sell any of the Phillip Morris but re-balanced by stopping the reinvestment of the dividend and putting that money into the other holdings every year.