The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    12,617
    Likes Received:
    4,497
    There will be some BIG earnings news coming out over the next three days. Microsoft reports today......Tesla reports on tomorrow......and....on Thursday Apple reports. Next week we will get Amazon and Google. Even if you dont own these stocks....these are BELLWEATHER earnings.
     
  2. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    12,617
    Likes Received:
    4,497
    I like this little article on Amazon stock.

    Amazon At 10 Year Low, Now Cheaper Than Microsoft

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4481339-amazon-10-year-low-cheaper-than-microsoft

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Summary
    • Ignore the age-old P/E argument with Amazon. Remember, they intentionally suppress it by reinvesting in growth.
    • When you cut through the accounting and look at other metrics, Amazon is the cheapest it has been in a long time. Perhaps a decade.
    • I added 33 shares on Friday and hope to continue buying even lower.
    You’ve heard the rebuttal for over two decades now: Amazon (AMZN) is expensive at a p/e of 50-80 or whatever it is at a given moment. Even as it hovers almost 24% below its high, this p/e mantra may be the most frequented comment here on Seeking Alpha regarding this stock. For example, last week in an article about the “market crash is likely only beginning,” I wrote this:

    [​IMG]
    comment on Seeking Alph

    One of the replies was this:

    AMZN p/e is still 57, hardly cheap. This younger generation of "buy the dip" "investors" has never experienced a true crash.

    As someone who invested during the first dot-com bubble and afterward, clung to the Graham and Buffett value methodology, I too fell for that argument. Eventually I finally got it; Amazon actually makes respectable profits, however they shield it from taxes by reinvesting. This distorts their p/e.

    Yes, it looks like Amazon has miniscule operating margins, but when you add back the R&D spending – which is reinvestment in growing the company – you realize that actually, their operating margin typically hover around 10% or more. Much better than the low to single digit percentage which gets reported.

    If they wanted to bolster their earnings, they could tone down the growth spending and bring down their p/e. As an investor though, you don’t want this right now given that they continue grow revenue in the ballpark of 30% annually and an ROE of 20-30%.

    Determining when Amazon is cheap vs. expensive

    While not my first choice, the price to sales, or enterprise value to revenue, are probably the most cited alternatives for valuing this company. Here’s how that currently looks:

    [​IMG]
    Data by YCharts
    At around 3.2, Amazon is around its 5-year low. During the 5 years preceding that, it averaged in the low to mid 2s. The bearish argument would be that therefore, the stock has 33% downside. The bullish rebuttal would be that it’s a vastly different business now vs. then.

    AWS, which is the most valuable part of the company, should trade at a 9-12x if it were a stand-alone. That's my personal opinion, however some suggest a 20-30x multiple.

    The retail side should be <2x and perhaps even around 1x, if you want to compare to South Korea’s Coupang (CPNG). If comparing to Walmart (WMT), you could make the case for 0.5 to 0.75x.

    Per their most recent 10-Q, their AWS segment produced $16,110 billion in revenue, compared to $65,557 billion for everything else in North America and $29,145 for everything else international.

    Whatever multiple you deem is appropriate for each segment (AWS and everything else), when you marry the two together, you realize that 3.2x combined is relatively low.

    My favorite metric for valuing Amazon is enterprise value to EBITDA, which is earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.

    Over the past 10 years, Amazon’s EV/EBITDA has ranged from 22.85 to 50.74. Its median is 34.25 (per GuruFocus). What is it currently?

    [​IMG]
    Data by YCharts
    21.87 per YCharts and GuruFocus reports 22.85. Pick your source and it's either at or quite close to the 10-year low.

    I also like using operating cash flow for gauging Amazon’s value (or lack thereof) at any given time. Right now that sits at the lowest quartile of the last 13 years:

    [​IMG]
    Amazon price/OCF

    GuruFocus

    So how does Amazon compare to Microsoft (MSFT) on these metrics?

    [​IMG]
    Data by YCharts
    Unlike Amazon, Microsoft's p/s just keeps creeping higher.

    Even though it’s 12.75x, of course it would be foolish to suggest it’s 4x more expensive than Amazon. Microsoft is almost entirely a software company, SaaS at that, and doesn’t have the capital intensive needs of Amazon retail. The warehouses, logistics, competitive pricing, and the nearly 1.5 million employees all but guarantees you should be valuing the retail side to something more along the lines of Costco (COST) at 1.05x.

    But forgetting about sales for a moment, how does Amazon’s EV/EBITDA compare to Microsoft? Here's a 10-year chart:

    [​IMG]
    Data by YCharts
    At just shy of 24x, Microsoft is more expensive than Amazon, at about 23x.

    How about p/OCF?

    [​IMG]
    MSFT p/OCF

    GuruFocus

    27.4x for Microsoft and 26.8 for Amazon. Again, Amazon wins.

    TL;DR?

    Don’t value Amazon on p/e. They intentionally suppress earnings (and taxes) by reinvesting in growth. As long as they continue to grow revenue 20-35% annually, this strategy shouldn’t be questioned. Instead of p/e, focus on other metrics which cut through the accounting games and reveal the true profitability of this behemoth."

    MY COMMENT

    I agree that their investments in the company and growth tend to MASK their real business results.

    BUT....if you look at share price growth....they are definately lagging where I think they should be. of course.....as usual.....I BLAME one thing....their refusal to split the stock. They are just......... TOO DARN EXPENSIVE.......for many investors to get over the psychological hurdle of investing a big chunk of money and only ending up with one or two shares of a stock.
     
  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    12,617
    Likes Received:
    4,497
    LOL.....I lost all my gains from yesterday. BUT....I still feel good after the come-back yesterday from the horrible mid-day losses. So.....I was in the RED today with every position down for the day. And....I got beat by the SP500 by 0.92%. There is no doubt that I am lagging the SP500 so far this year. I have not figured my year to date loss recently so i dont have an actual figure.
     
  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    12,617
    Likes Received:
    4,497
    Here is what I consider the SIGNIFICANT victory of the day.

    Microsoft tops analysts' expectations in Q2 as cloud revenue soars 46%

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/microsoft-q2-earnings-2022-141006162.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Microsoft (MSFT) reported its fiscal Q2 earnings after the closing bell on Tuesday, beating analysts' expectations with its cloud services revenue jumping 46%.

    The announcement comes just a week after the Redmond, Washington-based tech giant made headlines with news that it will acquire troubled gaming behemoth Activision Blizzard (ATVI) for $68.7 billion.

    Here are the most important numbers from the report, compared with what analysts were expecting.

    • Revenue: $51.7 billion versus $50.9 billion expected
    • Earnings per share: $2.48 versus $2.31 expected
    • Intelligent Cloud: $18.3 billion versus $18.3 billion expected
    • Productivity & Business Processes: $15.9 billion versus $15.9 billion expected
    • More Personal Computing: $17.4 billion versus $16.7 billion expected
    Shares of Microsoft were off more than 3% following the announcement.

    While the company reported that Azure and other cloud services revenue grew by 46%, that was slightly down from Q1 when Microsoft reported 50% growth in the category.

    "As tech as a percentage of global GDP continues to increase, we are innovating and investing across diverse and growing markets, with a common underlying technology stack and an operating model that reinforces a common strategy, culture, and sense of purpose," Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said in a statement.

    Microsoft, which was named Yahoo Finance’s Company of the Year for 2021 due to its impressive stock performance and cloud business, has seen its stock price slide as of late. Shares have fallen from a Nov. 15 high of $343.11 per share to $291.52 at the market open on Tuesday.

    Year-to-date, Microsoft’s stock was down 12.7% as of midday Tuesday, while the broader S&P 500 was down 7.5%. Amazon, Microsoft’s biggest competitor in the all important cloud space, was down more than 15.4%. Over the last 12 months, however, Microsoft’s stock price is up a whopping 29.9%, while the S&P 500 is up just 14.8%. Amazon’s shares are down 12.1%.

    Microsoft made waves last week when it announced its plans to purchase Activision Blizzard for $68.7 billion. The deal, which is expected to close in 2023 pending regulatory approval, will make Microsoft a gaming juggernaut, thanks to Activision Blizzard’s library of games including “Call of Duty” and “World of Warcraft.”

    The company will likely use its influx of gaming properties to further build out its Game Pass gaming service, which offers a cloud gaming component for $14.99 per month. Microsoft could also use Activision Blizzard’s intellectual property as a means to build out its own version of the metaverse.

    It will likely be some time before those plans come to fruition, though, which means Microsoft’s chief strategy will be to bring Activision Blizzard’s games to Game Pass, and turn the service into a must-have for gamers around the world.

    In the meantime, the company will have to address the cultural issues at Activision Blizzard that sparked a series of lawsuits and investigations related to alleged sexual harassment and workplace discrimination."

    MY COMMENT

    This is a really good earnings report. They beat or met expectations in every category. Extremely impressive management at this company at the moment.

    The timing of this release is unfortunate with the focus on the FED tomorrow. Those that want to short term trade can nit-pick away.......but.....these are good earnings and a company that is hitting on all cylinders lately.

    I will GLADLY take the market loss today for these earnings.
     
  5. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    12,617
    Likes Received:
    4,497
    We are in the middle of four projects right now.

    Half bath - still waiting for the vanity to complete the job. We have had the Restoration Hardware faucets siting in the closet waiting for the vanity for the last 6 months.

    Master Bath - we had half a slab of Quartzite left over from our kitchen counters and backsplash....so....we are going to use it to replace the master bath counter-tops and back/side splash.

    Laundry Room - We are going to replace the floor with bespoke tiles assembled by hand from a company in London. Beautiful classic designs. PLUS.....our square footage is so small that the cost is affordable. It will be very unique and custom for under $3000. https://www.londonmosaic.com/

    Various hallways, nooks, crannies - We are adding crown molding and trimming windows in various odd rooms, hallways, closets, laundry room, etc, etc, that are not currently done.

    The cost of all the above will be under $20,000. This is our entire project list. We just decided to bite the bullet and get them all out of the way this year and be done with the five year list.

    UNFORTUNATELY.....this is taking up money that I could put into the markets at the current on-sale prices. I will try to SQUEEZE $5000 to $10,000 out for the markets some time over the next few months. SO......perversely.....I would not mind seeing this little drop last a for a few months to give me time to round up some stock market money.
     
  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    12,617
    Likes Received:
    4,497
    HERE is one take on the day now that it is over.

    Dow closes lower, but well off session lows in another massive comeback

    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/24/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down Tuesday, but well off its session lows in another rollercoaster session as the Federal Reserve prepares investors for tighter monetary policy.

    The blue-chip average shed 67.77 points, or 0.2%, to close at 34,297.73. The index swung from a nearly 819-point deficit at its lows to a roughly 226-point rally at its highs during the session. The S&P 500 dipped 1.2% to 4,356.45. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 2.3% to 13,539.30.

    Tuesday’s market action came after the Dow on Monday rallied from a more than 1,000-point loss to close higher for the first time ever. The Nasdaq Composite reversed a 4.9% decline from earlier in the day to finish positive — its biggest rebound since 2008. The S&P 500 also rallied from major losses to close up.

    The roller coaster trading atmosphere continues,” Vital Knowledge’s Adam Crisafulli said in a note Tuesday. “The lows from yesterday though haven’t been breached.”

    Banks and energy stocks, sectors that stand to benefit from a recovering economy and higher yields, led Tuesday’s comeback. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note resumed its 2022 gain Tuesday to around 1.78%. Bank of America and Citigroup each gained around 2%. Occidental Petroleum and APA Corp both rose more than 8%.

    American Express was the top gainer on the Dow and the S&P 500 after an earnings beat, adding 8.9%. Dow members IBM and Johnson & Johnson were also among the top gainers on the index after reporting quarterly results.

    Tech shares struggled amid rising rates. Nvidia, down 24% this year, lost 4.5% on the day. Microsoft lost 2.7% ahead of its earnings report after the bell.

    General Electric was among the biggest decliners on the S&P 500 with a 6% loss after the company topped quarterly earnings expectations, but missed revenue estimates.

    The S&P 500 is down more than 8% in January, on pace for its worst month since March 2020 at the onset of the pandemic.

    I don’t think it’s done,” Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Tuesday. “This ... is a digestion process of a new environment that we’re not conditioned for.”

    The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed this year as the Federal Reserve signaled it will begin tightening monetary policy as soon as March with a rate hike. Investors have rotated out of high-growth areas of the market in favor of safer bets. The Nasdaq Composite is in correction territory, down more than 16% from its intraday record.

    Downside risks from monetary tightening are higher vs history. The pain has so far been localized to high valuation stocks, but signs of a broader risk-off are brewing,” Barclays’ Maneesh Deshpande said in a note Tuesday.

    Investors are awaiting policy updates after the Fed’s two-day policy meeting ends Wednesday. Market participants want to know when the central bank will raise interest rates and by how much. The Fed is expected to signal a rate hike as soon as March and more policy tightening on the table to address high inflation.

    Geopolitical tension at the Russia-Ukraine border continued to loom over markets. President Joe Biden spoke with European leaders Monday amid fears of a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine."

    MY COMMENT

    EVERYTHING......that is impacting the markets right now has been known for many months. Even the Ukraine situation has been brewing for many, many months and is nothing new. This stuff is nothing more than an......excuse.....for the current market.

    I dont see ANY indication of general investor panic or selling. I believe that newly......ALL......of the activity in January has been the "so called professionals" and the AI and Program Traders......SKEWING.....the markets. Add in the Hedge funds and you have the current year to date.

    As usual....it will be the little retail investors that sit and hold through this period of consolidation.....that laugh all the way to the bank in the end. I think the recent couple of days....with EPIC come-backs in the markets at the end of the day....shows that there is STILL a lot of underlying strength to the markets.
     
  7. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2019
    Messages:
    1,624
    Likes Received:
    1,188
    So who in here thinks that apple will get totally destroyed on Thursday’s earnings?
     
  8. PatelFSU

    PatelFSU New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 6, 2021
    Messages:
    19
    Likes Received:
    9
    Probably. Their guidance has been off lately. Fed tomorrow will paint the picture I think.
     
  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    12,617
    Likes Received:
    4,497
    NOTHING new today......except the markets being up nicely. At least we will get the FED out of the way after the next few days and can move on with earnings.

    A nice open to the markets today. I am sure the Microsoft earnings had a little something to do with that. The BIG factor today in my opinion.....there is just so long you can fear monger the same old issues that have been around for the past SIX MONTHS.
     
  10. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    12,617
    Likes Received:
    4,497
    I like this little article.

    Are You Investing or Merely Speculating?

    https://compoundadvisors.com/2022/are-you-investing-or-merely-speculating

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Whether you’re excited or nervous when your favorite asset falls in price marks whether you’re investing or merely speculating.”Naval Ravikant (Founder of AngelList)

    Are you investing or merely speculating?

    Naval Ravikant had an interesting take on this most important of questions. The deciding factor: whether you’re “excited” or “nervous” to see your investment going down in price.

    Why would anyone ever be excited to see something they own moving lower?


    Because it is giving them the opportunity to reinvest interest/dividends and add new capital at discounted prices. If you have a long enough time horizon and a diversified portfolio, buying at lower prices will increase your long-term return potential. Which is why a stock market crash is actually the best thing that could happen to young investors.


    How do you know if your time horizon is “long enough?”

    Examine the odds…

    Holding stocks for a day or a week is not much better than a coin flip (only positive 53/57% of the time). If that’s your time frame, you don’t have the luxury of waiting for stocks to come back and any decline should make you nervous.

    In contrast, holding stocks for 20-30 years has never yielded a negative return, even for investors who bought at the peak in 1929 and held throughout the Great Depression. Given those odds, long-term investors should be excited when stocks go on sale – and the earlier the sale, the better.

    [​IMG]
    Data Sources for all charts herein: Bloomberg, YCharts, Compound.

    The evidence is incontrovertible: the big money in investing is made not in the short-term wiggles but in the big moves, which only come with patience and time. The longer your holding period, the more time you have to compound, and the higher your prospective returns…

    [​IMG]
    That’s not to say that short-term trading can’t be profitable at times, with the potential for outsized gains. The S&P 500 was up 17% in its best trading day ever. But if you happened to time such a trade perfectly, luck – not skill – was the most likely driver.

    The real skill? Saving and investing for long enough to minimize the role of luck in the final outcome. This, unlike fortuitous short-term gains, is a repeatable process.

    [​IMG]
    One appeal of short-term trading is the notion that losses are truncated. This is generally true, but only up to a point. The worst day in stocks (-20%) is far lower than the worst month (-43%) or worst year (-71%). But at the 5-year mark, this trend begins to reverse course, and by 20 years the worst return was actually positive.

    [​IMG]
    The worst 30-year rolling return in the S&P 500? +559% – which equates to an annualized total return of 6.5%. And this occurred in a period that included the Great Depression and World War II. The lesson: by increasing your holding period to decades instead of days, you can actually reduce your risk of a bad outcome.

    The next time the stock market has a large decline, check your emotions. Are you excited or nervous?

    The answer will tell you if you are investing or merely speculating.

    MY COMMENT

    I LOVE the phrase in this little article......"REPEATABLE PROCESS". That is the TRUE key to investing and long term accumulation of wealth. This is exactly what a good business does....they put in place a repeatable process that makes a profit......over the long term. In fact think of anything...business, sports, medicine, investing,.....anything.....and success beyond the very short term involves achieving some sort of.....REPEATABLE PROCESS.

    Investing success is the same old message over and over. That is because what works does not change. The data remains the same....the academic research and what it shows....remains the same. The process is extremely simple......follow the rules for long term investing and you will do well.

    Find out what works for you......long term..... and do it over and over and over. Yes it is EXCITING to trade and speculate.....just like gambling is exciting. AND......yes, long term investing is BORING. The excitement comes from seeing that money start to pile up as you get into the process by five or ten or fifteen years.
     
  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    12,617
    Likes Received:
    4,497
    Here is today's little bit of economic data....not that anyone cares.

    U.S. New-Home Sales Surge Past Estimates, Reach Nine-Month High

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-home-sales-rose-nine-150609561.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Sales of new U.S. homes rose in December to a nine-month high, indicating firmer demand at the end of 2021 despite high prices and still-limited inventory.

    Purchases rose 11.9% from a month earlier to an 811,000 annualized pace, government data showed Wednesday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a 760,000 rate, and the December level exceeded all but one forecast.

    An increase in the number of completed homes over the last two months and prospects of higher interest rates this year as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy may have encouraged a pickup in contract signings.

    While potential buyers are still seeking more space as well as investment properties, prices remain high and builders continue to face some materials bottlenecks and labor constraints.

    Even so, a separate report from the Conference Board on Tuesday showed home-buying plans over the next six months rose to a record high.

    The new-home sales report, produced by the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development, showed the median sales price of a new home climbed 3.4% from a year earlier to $377,700.

    For the full year, sales decreased to 762,000 from 822,000 in 2020, the report showed.

    At the end of December, there were 403,000 new homes for sale, up slightly from a month earlier. At the current sales pace, it would take 6 months to exhaust the supply of new homes, compared with 3.8 months a year ago.

    Construction Stage

    Of the homes sold last month, construction on 231,000 had yet to be started, the most since May. Already completed homes rose to a three-month high of 187,000. The number of properties sold and currently under construction climbed in December to an 11-month high.

    Sales rose in all regions but the Northeast. Purchases in the West were the strongest since January of last year, while sales in the South climbed to an eight-month high.

    Separate data last week showed that existing home sales, which make up 90% of home purchases, dropped in December for the first time in four months, driven by limited inventory.

    New-home purchases account for about 10% of the market and are calculated when contracts are signed. The new-homes data are volatile; the report showed 90% confidence that the change in sales ranged from an 8.4% decline to a 32.2% increase."

    MY COMMENT

    The market is EXTREMELY HOT. In spite of rising mortgage rates lack of inventory is causing the markets to continue to be strong for sellers.

    In my little local area of 4200 homes.....we have FOUR homes available to buy. ONLY FOUR. That is EXTREME low inventory for this time of the year. Good news for sellers.....same old bad news for buyers. Also very good news for people that own a home and have no plans to move any time soon.......free net worth money.
     
  12. andyvds

    andyvds Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2020
    Messages:
    212
    Likes Received:
    109
    Apple will bring 14 new products to the market in 2022. The new M1, M2 and M3 CPU might be a real PC game changer with new market segments for Apple (gaming, cloud and mining). I think AAPL might be one of the best performing big tech stocks for the coming years.
     
  13. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    12,617
    Likes Received:
    4,497
    A very good day for investors so far today........about time for some gains.

    Stock market news live updates: Stocks rebound ahead of Fed decision

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-january-26-2022-231337869.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Stocks gained Wednesday morning to shake off some losses after a couple of volatile session on Wall Street. Investors looked to the Federal Reserve's latest statement and press conference to remove some uncertainty on the outlook for monetary policy.

    The S&P 500 rose by more than 1% just after the opening bell. The index closed lower for a fifth time in six sessions on Tuesday, extending volatility after Monday's rollercoaster trading day. The Nasdaq gained more than 2%.

    Microsoft (MSFT) shares reversed overnight losses and rose Wednesday morning after the company delivered better-than-expected fiscal second-quarter revenue and earnings. Shares of chipmaker Texas Instruments (TXN) also gained after offering a better-than-expected outlook for current-quarter sales despite concerns over ongoing semiconductor shortages. Companies including Tesla (TSLA) and Intel (INTC) are poised to report results on Wednesday.

    For markets, the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy statement and press conference from Fed Chair Jerome Powell later in the day will be the banner event. Investors have been pricing in a more aggressively hawkish central bank as the Fed works to rein in inflation currently running at a four-decade high. Over the past couple months, the Fed has signaled through its December meeting minutes and in public remarks that it will likely begin raising interest rates from current near-zero levels in March. It is also considering beginning to roll assets off its balance sheet after amassing some $9 trillion in its bond portfolio.

    "If you think about what's happened in the markets, it indicates the degree of sensitivity market participants have to what is going to be the new rate environment and the new liquidity environment," David Bailin, Citi chief investment officer and head of Citi global wealth management, told Yahoo Finance Live on Tuesday.

    "The Fed made a major reversal about five weeks ago when it said that it was both going to raise rates and also consider quantitative tightening, which effectively means that you and I are going to have to finance the debt that is necessary issued by the Treasury instead of the Fed," he added. "So with all of that, I think they're going to look at what happened [in markets] and they're going to say, our goal here is not to shut the economy and to make things slow. The goal here is to signal their willingness to fight inflation to the extent that they can."

    Other strategists agreed that the Fed's recent, more hawkish tilt has left investors so far with more questions than answers. While the Fed's December projections suggested policymakers were likely to raise rates three times this year, many market participants have now priced in expectations for four hikes, while others have suggested as many as five or six hikes may be on the table given the current inflationary backdrop. And though Powell has suggested the Fed would continue contemplating quantitative tightening, the central bank has yet to offer a concrete timeline for the start of this process.

    "We are in a period of heightened uncertainty," John Bellows, Western Asset portfolio manager, told Yahoo Finance on Tuesday. "The market's trying to figure out where that pivot ends, what eventually anchors Fed policy going. forward and it's still trying to calibrate correctly the scale and magnitude of that Fed pivot."

    10:21 a.m. ET: New home sales surge to reach highest level since March 2021 in December
    U.S. new home sales jumped far more than expected at the end of last year, underscoring still-elevated demand for housing even as home prices continued to jump and inventory remained constrained.

    New home sales rose 11.9% on a month-over-month basis in December, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. This brought sales to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 811,000, or the most since March 2021. In November, new home sales had risen by 11.7%, with this figure downwardly revised from the 12.4% rate previously reported.

    8:55 a.m. ET: U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly jumps to record level in December

    The U.S. goods trade gap yawned to a record high in December, unexpectedly soaring compared to the prior month as imports rose further.

    The trade deficit reached $101.0 billion in the final month of 2021, growing from November's upwardly revised $98.0 billion deficit, according to new data from the Commerce Department on Wednesday. Consensus economists had expected the trade deficit to narrow to $96.0 billion, according to Bloomberg consensus data.

    Imports rose by $5.1 billion, or 2.1%, compared to November to reach $258.3 billion. Exports, meanwhile, rose by 1.4%, or $2.2 billion, to come in at $157.3 billion during the month."

    MY COMMENT

    If you look at the past SIX MONTHS the issues and news items for investors are absolutely the same. Nothing new. SO....there is no reason for investors that are long term to change or do anything. Even if there was some new news or story....no need to change anything.

    I suspect the FED......unless they are complete morons......something I can guarantee.....is going to stick to their rate increases starting in March....but.....they will downplay the severity of their language. In fact....most of the FED issues are based on language and messaging. Every time they spook the markets it is usually a FAILURE of messaging. They do need to start to raise rates......it is past due and must be done. BUT....at the same time they need to use very passive language.
     
    EnzotheBulldog likes this.
  14. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    12,617
    Likes Received:
    4,497
    HERE is a reality check.......a positive reality check. After all the dips and drops we have had this month and all the negativity.....the SP500 at this moment is down by (-7.24%). That is it...that is all. I consider this a drop in the bucket.

    The Ten Year Yield after all the talk over the past weeks......1.787%.

    HERE is a.......50 YEAR.....list. The current yield is OUTRAGEOUSLY LOW. In fact if we should have concern....it should be that the rate is TOO LOW compared to the entire historical record of Ten Year rates. Rates in the general range we see today are EXTREMELY RARE over the past 50 years......or over any time period. Concern over this rate going higher is......A TOTAL JOKE.....and shows the extreme financial and historical IGNORANCE that is rampant today.


    https://www.macrotrends.net/2016/10-year-treasury-bond-rate-yield-chart
     
  15. The Ragin Cajun

    The Ragin Cajun Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2020
    Messages:
    113
    Likes Received:
    97
    Would love some recs on S&P 500 funds to invest in. I need to start transitioning my portfolio to around 50% index funds. There are the obvious VTI & VOO, but for some reason I like having a larger number of shares and would prefer not to buy indexes priced in the hundreds. Any favorites that I can research would be appreciated,
     
  16. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 21, 2017
    Messages:
    1,588
    Likes Received:
    1,224
    upload_2022-1-26_8-46-4.png
     
    WXYZ and The Ragin Cajun like this.
  17. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    4,333
    Likes Received:
    3,380
    SPLG is in the $50s and trades about 4M shares a day, expense ratio 0.03%.
     
    WXYZ and emmett kelly like this.
  18. The Ragin Cajun

    The Ragin Cajun Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2020
    Messages:
    113
    Likes Received:
    97
    Thank you, at first glance this is what I'm looking for. Will do more research.
     
    emmett kelly likes this.
  19. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    12,617
    Likes Received:
    4,497
    If it was me I would simply use the product.......from a mainstream, proven source...... that has the lowest expenses.....assuming it tracks the SP500 properly. When it comes to Index funds it is the differences in fees that gives that little extra boost in return over the long term.

    Make sure your broker does not have a charge or fee for outside products.
     
    The Ragin Cajun likes this.
  20. rg7803

    rg7803 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    583
    Likes Received:
    420
    Just one advice Rajin, pick one accumulation ETF, considering youre adding in a log term perspective.

    An accumulating ETF is a type of ETF in which any dividends that are paid out by its underlying holdings within the ETF are reinvested into the fund by the fund manager at no extra expense. As a result, the value of the ETF increases.

    Here in Portugal makes sense since broker/bank fees are high, each time you receive dividend payments; as well we have to pay a 28% tax for every payment.
     
    WXYZ and The Ragin Cajun like this.

Share This Page