The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    How P.J. O’Rourke Can Help You Invest Better

    ---

    fyi, he died a couple of days ago.
     
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  2. gtrudeau88

    gtrudeau88 Well-Known Member

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    Down 1.66% for the week and down 3.95% ytd. By comparison S&P is down 1.44% for the week and down 9.33% ytd.
     
  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Yep he did...I think that is what triggered the writer of the article to do it.
     
  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I have a relative that I do their taxes and handle their investing account. Yesterday I sold out of their account a dollar amount......in the low six figures......worth of stocks and funds to pay their taxes that will be due in April.

    I completed their tax return Wednesday evening. With the large amount they owe I decided to simply sell the stocks and funds on Thursday this week in spite of the big drop that day. I was not comfortable waiting to see if I could catch a better market day between now and April with the......RUSSIA mess......the impending rate increase in March......Inflation.....and......everything else that is going on short term. Since this tax obligation is very short term......just a couple of months.....I was not willing to gamble going forward and end up costing them an extra $5000 to $20,000 if the market goes down from here over the short term.
     
  5. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Another typical day in the markets lately. I was in the RED of course.....by a moderate amount. I also got beat by the SP500 by 0.45%. We have been in this negative pattern since the last week of December.

    I did have ONE stock up today.....so not totally bad news....it was Nike.
     
  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    A perfect SWEEP to end the week this week.....ALL the averages are distinctly negative for the year.....and.....all were DOWN for the week.

    DOW year to date (-6.22%)
    DOW for the week (-1.90%)

    SP500 year to date (-8.76%)
    SP500 for the week (-1.58%)

    NASDAQ 100 year to date (-14.16%)
    NASDAQ 100 for the week (-1.71%)

    NASDAQ year to date (-13.40%)
    NASDAQ for the week (-1.76%)

    RUSSELL year to date (-10.51%)
    RUSSELL for the week (-1.03%)

    This week was particularly telling for the government and their ability to tank the markets. I am hoping that we get a divided government in November....it will be much nicer for the markets.

    WOW.....no Russian invasion so far. EXACTLY what I expected. There is no way to know what is really going on.....but I imagine....that Putin is having a good laugh as he jerks us around every day impacting our economy and our financial markets, while driving up the amount of money he is raking in for Russian energy.

    Another week in the can......as we LURCH FORWARD.....from here. Somewhere out there in the........future markets......the sun is shining, and the birds are singing, and money is flowing. We are now one week closer to that time.
     
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  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I dont buy the argument that you constantly see about interest rate increases being bad for the BIG CAP TECH stocks. I am talking about the giants....Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple, and Nvidia. I see these DOMINANT....top ten companies.....as being no different than the GIANT top companies of the past that were mostly industrial and consumer conglomerates. I think any BIG CAP GIANT company with their massive reserves of money is........ actually.......insulated from rate hikes and are actually a safer investment in a declining or other economy.

    Everyone Thinks
    Rising Interest Rates
    Are Bad for Tech
    Stocks. But Are They?

    A closer look at the numbers shows that the relationship may not be as clear-cut as many investors believe.

    https://www.institutionalinvestor.c...st-Rates-Are-Bad-for-Tech-Stocks-But-Are-They

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Like many widely shared misconceptions, the idea that tech stocks are especially vulnerable to rising interest rates began logically enough. For starters, it’s almost certainly true that a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow, given the uncertainties of the future and the tendency of fiat currencies to lose purchasing power. And few investors would dispute that many companies in the tech sector, especially those that have just begun to tap their addressable markets, are expected to generate a greater share of their earnings over more distant tomorrows than are mature companies in fading sectors. It therefore stands to reason that tech stocks might be more sensitive to changes in interest rates, and this notion has become an investment mantra as swiftly and thoroughly as Omicron has become the dominant Covid-19 variant.

    Unfortunately, the narrative that higher rates are kryptonite for tech stocks has two fatal flaws. First, it depends on finding an off-label use for duration in the equity market, even though this essential bond-market tool is ill-suited for explaining changes in stock prices. Second, the empirical record flatly contradicts the narrative, if one considers any more than a pandemic-distorted sliver of it.

    Bond Math Doesn’t Apply to Stocks

    Duration, which is the weighted-average life of a bond’s scheduled stream of payments, also approximates the way its market value will mirror changes in interest rates. It arms investors with a standard metric for comparing interest-rate sensitivity across bonds, and fixed-income markets could scarcely operate without it. It is especially useful for Treasuries, whose holders can be certain of receiving every scheduled payment on time and in full. It would be useful to have a duration measure for equities, but they have no maturity date, and their future stream of earnings does not respond consistently to changes in interest rates.

    But don’t just take our word for it. A review of the empirical data mercilessly exposes equity duration’s shortcomings. Over the nearly 70 years of accurate 10-year Treasury-yield data, monthly S&P 500 total returns have exhibited a barely noticeable negative correlation with monthly changes in interest rates — rate moves explain just 1 percent of the variability in equity returns. A more relevant comparison for the next few years might be the three-decade bond bear market that ended in 1982, but even though the relationship was stronger during that stretch, it was still quite weak, with changes in rates explaining only 5 percent of equity variability.

    The relationship between interest rates and the purportedly long-duration tech sector is no stronger. Over the 32 years that sector price indexes have been constructed in accordance with Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) sector classifications, tech returns have exhibited a weak positive correlation with interest rates, which is to say that tech stocks have performed slightly better when rates have risen than when they’ve fallen. But regardless of the direction, the relationship is tenuous: Interest-rate moves have explained a mere 2 percent of the variability in tech sector returns. In other words, changes in interest rates have no particular explanatory power over the relative returns of tech stocks. When it comes to duration and stocks, there’s simply no there there.

    Ordinary Popular Delusions

    So how can it be that every market participant apparently now knows that tech stocks are long-duration assets that are acutely vulnerable to a backup in yields? Well, when overwhelming quantitative evidence fails to get traction, we can only suppose that cognitive biases are at work. In this case, it appears that the power of narratives — mixed together with recency bias and innumeracy — has convinced investors to believe something that simply isn’t true.

    To trace the ways that interest rates might impact equity returns, we broke stock prices down into their essential building blocks: future earnings and the multiple that investors are willing to pay for them. S&P 500 tech earnings are less sensitive to changes in interest rates than are overall S&P 500 earnings because tech companies have just over half the debt financing that the index ex-tech does, and because the two companies that account for nearly half of sector market cap, Apple and Microsoft, do not sell big-ticket items that their customers have to finance.

    Empirical data supports the assertion. Since the global financial crisis, the relationship of relative tech earnings to the 10-year yield has ranged from modestly inverse to flatly indifferent, except during 2020, when those earnings rose with falling rates and slipped when rates rose. But although 2020 represents no more than a sliver of the full data set, investors have fixated on it. Furthermore, although one might think that 2020, the year in which Covid-19 most severely disrupted economic activity, was prone to be especially anomalous, investors were hoodwinked into conflating correlation with causation while disregarding the lack of co-movement between rates and relative performance in 2021.

    In the absence of an interest-rate/tech-earnings relationship, the purported link between interest rates and relative tech-stock performance must come down to price-earnings multiples. But for the first ten years following the global financial crisis, tech’s relative multiples rose and fell in tandem with interest rates:

    [​IMG]

    What appears to have happened is that the herd has disregarded the preponderance of the data disproving its intuition and has latched on to a fleeting stretch during which the observed correlation was powerfully negative. In this showdown between data and a popular narrative, the data didn’t stand a chance.

    BCA Research is not bullish on the tech sector. There are plenty of reasons why tech’s outperformance may have run its course — the law of large numbers will make it increasingly difficult to sustain historic growth rates, legal and regulatory headwinds are emerging, and a shift from pandemic winners to pandemic losers may already be underway — but rising rates are not one of them."

    MY COMMENT

    EXACTLY.....this MYTH is now fully established and is contained in EVERY article in the media about rising rates. It is simply repeated over and over with NO actual thought or analysis. This is EXACTLY what I posted earlier today about.....investors NOT seeing REALITY.

    BUT....over the short term something does not have to be true to impact stocks. That is what is happening now with this GARBAGE. It is simply LAZY journalism and thinking. Over the medium to long term it will be shown to be FALLACY.
     
  8. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    found an audition for ya, boss.

    upload_2022-2-18_14-17-17.png
     
  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Thank you Emmett.....that role fits me to a T.....excerpt I am 72.......NOT 30's to 50's. I am definately...."charming, good looking, a white male, an art collector".....at least in my own mind. I dont often drink whiskey. And a non-speaking role....perfect for me....I will be able to use my supreme acting and emoting skills.

    Actually it sounds like it might fit....YOU. Did you apply?
     
  10. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    you crack me up. a legend in your own mind. i did not submit. it's a student film that doesn't even pay gas money. however, some good directors have come out of that school. there's a really good film school (chapman university) down here in the oc that i have done a few shoots for.
     
  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Yes....that would be WAY BELOW my required fee. I would have to get a $150,000 one day minimum plus 15 points on the gross.
     
    #9711 WXYZ, Feb 18, 2022
    Last edited: Feb 18, 2022
  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I have been finding some really good articles lately that I believe are REALITY and COMMON SENSE. AND.......they are often outside what is the accepted current DOGMA in the investing world. Here is another.

    Inflationary pressures will ease throughout the year: Strategist

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/infl...throughout-the-year-strategist-214743264.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "As the labor market continues to improve and the Fed set to begin raising interest rates as early as this spring, inflation may be approaching its peak.

    Inflation rose 7.5% year-over-year in January as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly inflation report, representing the highest inflation increase in 40 years.

    Though a multitude of factors contribute to the inflation the U.S. is currently experiencing, issues with the supply chain have been a significant contributor, says Eric Kuby, CIO of North Star Investment Management Corp.

    “[The labor market is] really hot because of supply disruptions, you know, just a lot of problems related to the pandemic,” Kuby said in a recent interview with Yahoo Finance Live. “So I actually believe that the positive bullish case is that a lot of these issues that have really caused these inflationary pressures are going to abate as the year goes on. And that lower inflation data will allow for less aggressive Fed policy once rates get way off of 0, maybe close to 2% on the short end.”

    January’s job report, released two weeks ago, revealed a strong labor market. A higher-than-expected rise of 467,000 jobs occurred, signaling healing in a job market which struggled with the Omicron variant in recent months.

    With the labor market improving, the Fed may be more likely to be more aggressive in raising interest rates.

    The Fed is, I think, pretty clearly behind the curve,” Kuby said. “It has been for quite a while. And I do think that rates are going to continue to rise.”

    As interest rates rise and inflation begins to subside, workers may see real wage gains. Wages have risen strongly since the pandemic, but high inflation has reduced any progress in real wages to this point. However, higher wages may persist after inflation slows, Kuby said.

    “I mean, the thing about wage inflation, unlike the other areas of inflation, [is] that once you raise wages, it's hard to go back,” he explained. “I talked with companies. I think we're close to the end of the rising cost pressures. So I think that you'll start seeing inflation getting less problematic over the next couple of months, although not immediately.”

    Small-cap value stocks

    Instead of pulling out money from investment portfolios and growing cash reserves, Kuby recommended investors explore small-cap value stocks.

    There's a lot of really good companies with great balance sheets in the small-cap world that are— a lot of consumer stocks, a lot of industrial stocks that we think have gotten unreasonably inexpensive,” he said. “[These stocks are] great bargains after this big sell off. So we would encourage people to look at small-cap, particularly small cap value, which has been a really tough area, but I think is getting better this year.”"

    MY COMMENT

    The current inflation is NOTHING like what I lived through in the late 1970's and early 1980's. ALL the drama and hand-wringing is way over-blown.

     
  13. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    TGIF......no markets to deal with for THREE DAYS......Monday is Presidents Day. In the old days....we used to call it Washington's Birthday.

    I have three shows over the next seven days....it will be nice to make a little money.....compared to losing money this week in my brokerage account.
     
  14. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    One thing I DO LOVE about Technical Analysis....even though I dont use it or believe that it works......is the fact that they have all the ....COOL NAMES. Here is one of my favorites.

    Nasdaq Sinks Into Death Cross After 16% Drop From November Peak

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nasdaq-sinks-death-cross-15-153648858.html

    The....DREADED DEATH CROSS......yeah.

    NO....I dont believe in any of this stuff.....but.....THE DEATH CROSS.....cool. Reminds me of some of the old football drill names that we had to do in the old days....BLOOD ALLEY....HEAD TO HEAD.....BULL IN THE RING.....OKLAHOMA DRILL.

    Us Fundamental Investors need cool names for what we do. Think how cool we would be if we could talk about the markets like this...."On Monday the markets were hit with a PEOPLES ELBOW in the morning and then were finished off with a BURNING HAMMER at the close....dang". "We are anticipating a CURB STOMP tomorrow". I think we should take after the Pro Wrestling and name some of our investing moves:


    Leg Drop
    The People's Elbow
    Moonsault
    Ankle Lock
    Frankensteiner/Hurricanrana
    Canadian Destroyer
    Punt Kick
    Burning Hammer
    Curb Stomp
    Spinebuster
    Frog Splash
    Chokeslam
    Powerbomb
    Piledriver
    Scorpion Deathlock
    Flying Elbow


     
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  15. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    The media is so DUMB......once in a while I still see the old garbage in an article about how the Millennials are not going to do this or that because they want...."experiences"...instead. What a joke.....and....a total failure of common sense by writers that are lazy and dumb.

    Cities With the Most Homebuyers Under 25

    https://www.inspectionsupport.com/resources/cities-with-the-most-homebuyers-under-25/

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "The red-hot residential real estate market of the last two years has shown some recent signs of cooling off, but finding a home remains challenging for many buyers. Intense competition and rising prices have made it especially difficult for young, first-time homebuyers to make a purchase.

    Some unique, pandemic-related economic factors have contributed to the current state of the market, but some of the largest structural factors driving the current market are generational. Baby boomers—those born between 1946 and 1964, who total more than 70 million Americans—are increasingly choosing to age in place as they reach retirement. Simultaneously, the millennial generation, who were born between 1981 and 1996, are now America’s largest generational cohort and at a peak age for buying a first or second home. Together, these forces mean that more buyers are competing for fewer homes. Freddie Mac estimated last year that the U.S. needs 3.8 million more homes to meet current demand.

    Despite these challenging conditions, young buyers have nonetheless made progress in homeownership in recent years. The homeownership rate for adults under 25 reached 25.7% in 2020, matching a previous peak from the height of the housing bubble in 2005. While the Great Recession reduced the share of adults under 25 who owned, that figure remained higher throughout the 2010s than it had been in the 1980s and 1990s.
    [​IMG]
    Data on home loans from the Home Mortgage Disclosure Actalso confirms young adults’ increasing levels of homeownership. Of all age groups, adults under 25 saw the largest percentage increase in the number of home loans originated between 2019 and 2020, increasing by 16.9%. However, the same data also points to the competition that young buyers may face: the number of home purchase loans originated increased in every cohort from 2019 to 2020, and adults under 25 were the second-smallest age cohort, representing only about 160,000 loans out of 3.4 million total.
    [​IMG]
    For young adults interested in homeownership, some geographic locations prove more favorable than others. Many of the states with the highest shares of home purchase loans from adults under age 25 are found in the Midwest, led by Iowa at 10.5%. The Midwest tends to have lower home prices, which makes home purchases more attainable. Many leading metros for young homeownership are also found in the affordable Midwest and South. In contrast, high-cost states including Hawaii (1.3%), California (2.1%), and New Jersey (2.2%) have much lower shares of home purchase loans from young adults. With lower earnings and less savings and equity accumulated than their older counterparts, young adults are more likely to struggle to afford homes in these markets.

    [​IMG]
    The data used in this analysis is from the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council’s Home Mortgage Disclosure Act. Only conventional home purchase loans originated in 2020 were considered. To determine the locations with the most homebuyers under 25, researchers at Inspection Support Network calculated the share of home purchase loans taken out by applicants under 25 years old. In the event of a tie, the location with the greater total number of home purchase loans accounted for by applicants under 25 years old was ranked higher.

    Here are the metropolitan areas with the most homebuyers under 25.
    [​IMG]
    Large Metro Areas With the Most Homebuyers Under 25
    15. Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
    • Under-25 share of home purchase loans: 5.2%
    • Total under-25 home purchase loans: 864
    • Median loan amount: $165,000
    • Median loan-to-value ratio: 97.0%
    • Median interest rate: 3.38%
    14. Kansas City, MO-KS
    • Under-25 share of home purchase loans: 5.3%
    • Total under-25 home purchase loans: 1,588
    • Median loan amount: $165,000
    • Median loan-to-value ratio: 95.0%
    • Median interest rate: 3.25%
    13. Pittsburgh, PA
    • Under-25 share of home purchase loans: 5.4%
    • Total under-25 home purchase loans: 1,184
    • Median loan amount: $135,000
    • Median loan-to-value ratio: 95.0%
    • Median interest rate: 3.25%
    12. Columbus, OH
    • Under-25 share of home purchase loans: 5.5%
    • Total under-25 home purchase loans: 1,490
    • Median loan amount: $155,000
    • Median loan-to-value ratio: 95.0%
    • Median interest rate: 3.25%
    11. Birmingham-Hoover, AL
    • Under-25 share of home purchase loans: 5.8%
    • Total under-25 home purchase loans: 784
    • Median loan amount: $165,000
    • Median loan-to-value ratio: 95.0%
    • Median interest rate: 3.38%
    10. Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
    • Under-25 share of home purchase loans: 5.8%
    • Total under-25 home purchase loans: 3,314
    • Median loan amount: $220,000
    • Median loan-to-value ratio: 95.0%
    • Median interest rate: 3.13%
    9. Cleveland-Elyria, OH
    • Under-25 share of home purchase loans: 5.9%
    • Total under-25 home purchase loans: 1,292
    • Median loan amount: $125,000
    • Median loan-to-value ratio: 95.0%
    • Median interest rate: 3.25%
    8. Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN
    • Under-25 share of home purchase loans: 6.0%
    • Total under-25 home purchase loans: 1,800
    • Median loan amount: $165,000
    • Median loan-to-value ratio: 95.0%
    • Median interest rate: 3.38%
    7. St. Louis, MO-IL
    • Under-25 share of home purchase loans: 6.1%
    • Total under-25 home purchase loans: 2,126
    • Median loan amount: $145,000
    • Median loan-to-value ratio: 95.0%
    • Median interest rate: 3.25%
    6. Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
    • Under-25 share of home purchase loans: 6.3%
    • Total under-25 home purchase loans: 582
    • Median loan amount: $145,000
    • Median loan-to-value ratio: 95.0%
    • Median interest rate: 3.25%
    5. Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
    • Under-25 share of home purchase loans: 7.0%
    • Total under-25 home purchase loans: 1,926
    • Median loan amount: $145,000
    • Median loan-to-value ratio: 95.0%
    • Median interest rate: 3.25%
    4. Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
    • Under-25 share of home purchase loans: 7.1%
    • Total under-25 home purchase loans: 3,286
    • Median loan amount: $155,000
    • Median loan-to-value ratio: 95.0%
    • Median interest rate: 3.25%
    3. Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
    • Under-25 share of home purchase loans: 7.5%
    • Total under-25 home purchase loans: 1,252
    • Median loan amount: $145,000
    • Median loan-to-value ratio: 95.0%
    • Median interest rate: 3.38%
    2. Salt Lake City, UT
    • Under-25 share of home purchase loans: 7.5%
    • Total under-25 home purchase loans: 1,437
    • Median loan amount: $275,000
    • Median loan-to-value ratio: 95.0%
    • Median interest rate: 3.37%
    1. Grand Rapids-Kentwood, MI
    • Under-25 share of home purchase loans: 8.7%
    • Total under-25 home purchase loans: 1,284
    • Median loan amount: $165,000
    • Median loan-to-value ratio: 95.0%
    • Median interest rate: 3.38%
    MY COMMENT

    Buying a home is a major life event and something that most people want to do at some point in their lives. It is ALSO one of the primary ways of diversifying and achieving some level of wealth and family security. WELL DONE.....to those people that are able to achieve this MAJOR life event during this challenging real estate market.
     
  16. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    HERE in Central Texas in my little area of the world and country....the housing markets are RED HOT as usual. Out of 4200 homes in my general area there are currently ONLY......EIGHT.....homes for sale. The price breakdown is......four homes under $1MILLION with the lowest being $725,000 and the highest being $899,000. There are four homes over $1MILLION with the lowest being $1MILLION and the highest being $1.68MILLION.

    The market here continues to be CRAZY if you are trying to buy a home. If you already own a home it is GREAT....your net worth is going up in leaps and bounds. In my little area of 4200 homes we used to have......years ago...... about 45-70 homes for sale at this time of the year.

    Here is a personal example of the crazy price increases......2.8 years ago we downsized to a house that we bought for $800,000 a.......3600sqft......4 bed, 3.5 bath......house. NOW.....just 2.8 years later.....a similar size and comparable house (not quite as nice) in our area of 4200 homes is for sale for $1.5MILLION......and....it will sell quickly. We have seen an increase in homes like ours of about $700,000 in less than three years. This is totally unprecedented. We have owned 10 homes over the past 48 years.....in various parts of the country...... and have NEVER seen anything like this. The crazy thing is at least here in this area....there is NO indication at all that it is going to stop any time soon.
     
  17. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    For the past few weeks the MEDIA has been totally FEAR MONGERING the coming FED rate increases by making it sound like the rate increases would be higher and sooner than expected. NO....it is not going to happen....it is simply MORE GARBAGE and RUMOR being reported as fact.

    Fed officials lean against large increase to kick off rate hikes

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-officials-lean-against-large-224026818.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "(Reuters) -Federal Reserve officials on Friday squelched what had been rising market expectations for an aggressive initial response to 40-year-high U.S. inflation, signaling that steady interest rate hikes should be enough to do the trick.

    "I don’t see any compelling argument to taking a big step at the beginning," New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams, the No. 2 official on the central bank's policy-setting panel, told reporters after a speech.

    "I think we can steadily move up interest rates and reassess," he said at the online event.

    Fed Governor Lael Brainard - President Joe Biden's nominee to be vice chair at the Fed - said officials will likely kick off a "series of rate increases" at their upcoming meeting in March, followed by decreases in the size of the Fed's balance sheet "in coming meetings."

    Brainard, speaking at a conference in New York, did not give a specific recommendation for the coming meeting, but said recent changes in financial markets, including a rise in mortgage rates, were "consistent with" where the Fed is heading.

    "The market is clearly aligned with that and brought forward the changes in financing conditions in a way that's consistent with our communications and data," Brainard said.

    Investors in federal funds futures contracts last week began leaning towards the idea the Fed would raise rates a half a percentage point in March. Those expectations have now drifted back, with a quarter point hike now anticipated and six increases in total over the year.

    In remarks at the conference in New York, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans downplayed the thought the Fed needed to get more aggressive, even though he agreed policy was "wrong-footed" with annual consumer price increases topping 7%.

    He said he remained convinced inflation would ease on its own.

    "I see our current policy situation as likely requiring less ultimate financial restrictiveness compared with past episodes and posing a smaller risk," Evans said at a separate New York event. "We don’t know what is on the other side of the current inflation spike... We may once again be looking at a situation where there is nothing to fear from running the economy hot."

    The remarks came at the end of a tumultuous week in which traders piled into, and then backed away from, bets that the Fed would begin a round of rate hikes next month with a bigger-than-usual half-point increase.

    St. Louis Fed President James Bullard had fanned those expectations with a call for raising rates by a full percentage point by the Fed's June meeting, a rate path that would require at least one half-point hike between now and then.

    Policymakers at the central bank have all but said they will start raising borrowing costs next month to quell inflation that has raced past their 2% target, and economists expect the Fed to kick off the longest series of rate hikes in decades.

    Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been publicly silent since January, so Williams' and Brainard's comments provide the best steer yet on the prevailing view at the Fed's policy-setting core.

    Powell, however, will have a chance to shape expectations on March 2 and 3 when he gives his semiannual monetary policy update to Congress in hearings announced on Friday by the House Financial Services Committee and Senate Banking Committee.

    STEADILY, PREDICTABLY

    The Fed should begin raising rates next month and, once rate hikes are underway, begin to "steadily and predictably" trim its $9 trillion balance sheet, Williams said. Both actions, he said, will bring demand into better balance with supply.

    At the same time, he said, other forces should also be bringing down inflation, with supply chains healing and consumers returning to pre-pandemic spending patterns.

    Williams said policymakers can speed up or slow down the pace of rate increases later as needed. A path in which the overnight federal funds rate moves to a range of 2% to 2.5% by the end of next year makes sense, he said.

    Williams said he expects real U.S. GDP to grow by slightly less than 3% this year and for the unemployment rate to drop to about 3.5% by the end of the year. He projects inflation as measured by the personal consumption expenditures price index to decline to about 3% and for it to fall further next year as supply challenges improve."

    MY COMMENT

    I get so tired of the HYSTERICAL reporting that is now the norm......but....it is not going to change. The above is the FED sending out the troops to SQUELCH the talk about stronger rate increases. IGNORE the fear mongering and FAKE financial news.
     
  18. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Here is the SP500 year to date....not a pretty sight.


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    HERE is the long term SP500.....this little event of the past couple of months is MEANINGLESS and not even visible.

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    #9718 WXYZ, Feb 19, 2022
    Last edited: Feb 20, 2022
    JaysonW likes this.
  19. mizugori

    mizugori New Member

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    @WXYZ

    I wonder if you would be willing to do a post where you analyze a given stock in detail, walking us through all the things you research, in order to arrive at your determination of whether it's a good company to invest in for the long term?



    I know you have talked about this in the past but it was more generic. For example, I know you want good management but... how does one quantify that? What actual sites/tools/etc. would you use to make that call? It would be incredibly valuable to see how you would analyze a company like Home Depot (which I know is on your list and is a very solid performing company.)



    I know it's a big ask, and if you're aren't inclined to do so I completely understand. But you post a lot and seem to enjoy doing it so I figured it was worth asking... I have tried to learn how to properly analyze stocks for years but so much of what is out there is junk info and everybody seems to obsess over absurd technical indicators nowadays.
     
  20. rg7803

    rg7803 Well-Known Member

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    Found this today, it is kind of interesting.

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    emmett kelly likes this.

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